JPY Basket 4hr TFThe JPY Basket has made a 3.3% move without any significant pullback, which suggests a strong momentum, but this move lacks the typical retracement I’d expect to see for a more balanced market. It has reacted off a key level that I’ve identified as an area of interest. However, to gain a higher level of confidence in the direction, I’m waiting for a "double tap" — a second test of this area — which would signal that the market is likely to move lower.
The confluences supporting this bearish view are strong. First, the trend line is indicating a potential reversal point, aligning with a daily rejection zone, where price has shown resistance previously. Additionally, we have the -0.618 Fibonacci extension level on the daily chart, which often acts as a target for price retracements or continuations. Given these factors, I’m expecting the market to pull back to at least the 6664 level before potentially moving lower.
