2018 - "this time it'll be different"Not really.
Market sentiment echoes an unstable whiplashing and overcooked economy that is accompanied by a hawkish Fed unwilling to slash rates. Sound familiar? So let's overlay 2018 and see if that's when the twists and turns come....
Apr 2 low, Apr 14 high, May 5 low.
As good a guess as any right?
NAS100 trade ideas
Bear Market FormingVery big things happening in the economy this quarter, mainly trade wars, real wars, and new policies.
Job cuts 100k+ government job cuts, 25-50k more expected in the coming months. In addition to 35k tech layoffs, and 38,956 retail job cut announcement. So probably 225k+ jobs lost this year
The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February.
Tarrifs are divided, some calling it inflationary, but statements from JPM: "Roughly half of the GDP decline from higher tariffs is attributed to a negative sentiment shock related to rising trade policy uncertainty." and RBC: "Based on 2024 import data from Canada, Mexico, and China, the announced tariffs could boost total U.S. tariff revenues by about $300 billion" at least show potential offsets.
War has been ongoing, but increased economic activity from Russia, and stimulus in the EU increase liquidity in the markets.
But all of that is going to take time to settle, so you cant write off another 6 months of a downtrend of up to 10% in equities - until we get more information introduced to the market.
NAS100 OUTLOOKAnalysis of NAS100 (H4 Timeframe)
Key Observations:
Downtrend Structure
The market has been in a consistent downtrend since February 2025.
Lower highs and lower lows indicate strong bearish momentum.
Key Support Zone (Near 19,225)
The price is currently sitting at a critical support level.
If buyers step in, we could see a bounce to previous resistance levels.
If this level breaks, the next potential target could be around 18,800 - 18,700.
No Clear Bullish Signs Yet
The price is still making lower highs.
A bullish reversal would require a strong rejection or bullish candlestick pattern at support.
Possible Trade Setups
Bullish Setup (Buy Trade - If Support Holds)
✅ Entry: If price forms a bullish reversal pattern around 19,225 - 19,300.
🎯 Target: First target 19,800, second target 20,400.
🛑 Stop-Loss: Below 19,100 to avoid fakeouts.
📈 Confirmation: Look for bullish engulfing candles or double-bottom formations.
Bearish Setup (Sell Trade - If Support Breaks)
❌ Entry: Below 19,100 after a strong bearish close.
🎯 Target: First target 18,800, second target 18,600.
🛑 Stop-Loss: Above 19,400 to protect against false breakdowns.
Final Thoughts:
Right now, NAS100 is at a make-or-break level.
If buyers defend support, a rally to 19,800+ is likely.
If support breaks, expect a further drop to 18,800 or lower.
Wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
NASDAQ Pullback Loading? Small Retrace or Massive Opportunity AhThe NAS100 looks primed for more downside, but the real question is: how deep will the pullback go? Right now, we’re trading into key lows — a shallow retrace could offer a lower RR setup, but if we get a bigger move back, it could set the stage for a high-probability, high-reward trade.
$NAS100 in correction mode. Is a bounce coming?Market experts will say 10% is a correction 20% is a bear market. In the last 5 years NASDAQ100 has been in the bear market 2 times. Once during COVID19 and another time during the FED Rate hike cycle. And it has been in correction mode in Aug 2024 when the Yen carry trade unwound.
Since Aug 2024 PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 has shown great strength with higher highs and higher lows and perfectly within the upward slopping Fib Retracement channel as shown in the chart below respecting the major fib levels and bouncing off from the 0.618 Fib retracement level every time it had a drawdown. The current correction in PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is very close to the 0.618 Fib retracement level which is currently at 18700. This will indicate another potential downside of 2-3 % and if the Fib levels are supposed to holds then we will see a bottom @ 18700 and a bounce back from those levels. This will also bring down the RSI to low 30s which will indicate an oversold position.
Verdict: Start DCA into $ NAS100 and go long 18700.
NAS100 Is Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for NAS100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 19,181.5.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 19,921.0 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
US100 BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 19,170.0
Target Level: 20,308.4
Stop Loss: 18,413.4
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
US100 analysis Hi traders as you can see we've been trading in strong uptrend channel however I call it big bearish flag and it is broken as a buyer do you goo against it expecting market to just reject n continue to goo up noo,if am not willing to follow the trend I wait n monitor trade to my demand zones,expect more drops to come as trump raise another tarrif on 2 April my target is at 168 highs n understand that I don't control the market but I follow the trends n my rules, trading with wars it's very surprising n aggressive I can say that 2025 soo far it's hard to position yourselfs in long term gains as it's under pressure since January soo it might be a good year or bad year take care.
Are we sleeping on a massive double top?As you can see, The Nasdaq has made two near equal peaks around the 22100 area.
Although the Weekly candles of the first and second week of February were bullish, it coincided with two weeks of declining volume, usually meaning momentum exhaustion.
On the 18th February the Nasdaq printed a strong ‘no body’ red doji on the daily TF. This is an indecision candle but can signal the beginning of a trend change.
The Green Areas show the Daily Fair Value Gaps and I’ve but a target beside the Fair Value Gaps that are currently unfilled.
If the Nasdaq breaks beneath 20500, the targets underneath this price is where I’d expect price to be drawn towards.
Also, I have highlighted some notable lows where I’d expected volatility around. I am not suggesting at that this move could in a straight line by the way. If it happens, it will happen in waves.
This is based 100% on technical analysis.
NAS100: Likely rebound at major point within Ascending ChannelCAPITALCOM:US100 is likely to be undergoing a corrective move as it tests the lower boundary of the ascending channel, as shown on my chart. This boundary serves as dynamic trendline support and a significant bullish reaction could happen if buyers step in at this level.
A successful rebound from this support could lead to a move toward the midline of the channel, with the next target at around 22,000 . This scenario would maintain the overall bullish trend structure.
However, a clear breakdown below the trendline support would weaken the bullish outlook and could lead to further downside.
Monitoring candlestick patterns and volume at this critical zone is essential for identifying buying opportunities. Proper risk management is advised, always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
If you have any thoughts on this setup or additional insights, drop them in the comments!
NAS100 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
Nas100 initially showed signs of recovery with some bullish momentum. However, in the last three days of the week, the market sentiment shifted, breaking key support zones at 19,880.00, 19,400.00, and 19,151.00. This drop was driven by growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and a more pessimistic inflation outlook.
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 19,400.00
📉 Support: 19,151.00 – If broken, price may drop further.
🔹 Market Structure:
🚀 Bullish scenario: Rejection of 19,151.00 & break of 19,400.00 → Retest → Target higher levels.
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Break of 19,151.00 → Drop to 18,796.10 → Further decline if broken.
📌 Risk Management: Wait for confirmation of breakout or rejection before entering trades.
NASDAQ 100 IndexThe price has already dropped to the support line of the inner channel (in light blue), which is at one standard deviation.
If this support line is also broken, the next support level is the outer channel (in yellow), which is at two standard deviations.
(Logarithmic price axis, channel starting from 2008)
NASDAQ Bearish, What's Next? Is 18.5k feasible?Price respected Weekly's bearish imbalance to continue lower. Still price is within the weekly's context area to which is suitable to look for entries in lower timeframes targeting weekly's swing low (POI).
Once, the Weekly POI get's tagged we might look to continue to the next POI (Point of Interest). Likely, the daily swing lows.
What's Next?
Potential target price is 18,537.88.
Good times still to roll on after correction.Bear flag forming at the edge of the channel. The flag pole came down with good volume and flag itself (consolidation) on decrease volume therefore good probability of more downside. If that happens that could create a Wycoff spring and resume the current trend.
Rebound Failed, market will be driven by news events next week(The following is merely a personal opinion and not investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.)
From Monday to Wednesday this week, the Nasdaq continued last week's rebound and reached the initial rebound target of 20,256, as previously mentioned. However, on Wednesday, the price began to pull back and filled Monday’s gap.
With U.S. tariffs set to take effect on April 2, the market is facing increased short-term uncertainty. On Friday, the bears encountered no resistance and drove the market down rapidly. The market is currently highly focused on tariff-related news, and without positive developments, prices may continue to decline. Once the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs is resolved, it will be important to monitor market sentiment and further developments.
For next week's trading, patience is key—waiting for more updates on tariffs and the potential market bottom. If positive news emerges after April 2, a V-shaped rebound remains possible.
From a technical perspective, since the market failed to break out effectively this week, the current market structure has broken below the long-term uptrend line that has been in place since 2023 on the weekly chart! Therefore, technically speaking, there is still significant downside potential. However, after several consecutive weeks of decline, prices are in an oversold state, making shorting at these levels relatively risky.
For short positions, it may be preferable to wait for a rebound to the 19,974–20,257 range before considering shorting opportunities based on further news developments. If the bears remain in control, prices should stay below 20,361. Otherwise, a breakout above 20,715, 21,098, and 21,370 could occur.
For long positions, it may be best to wait until the tariff-related news is fully priced in before making further observations. It would be prudent to confirm signals on the 4-hour chart before considering any long positions.
nas updateThis Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For educational Purpose to Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView
Realtime markups: Indices tailspin to the weekly range lowsAfter rejecting the weekly highs aggressively on Wednesday, we had a clear run toward the low of the same weekly range candle's low. I believe this low will be hit before anything else.
We will see what the Monday open sequence looks like. See you then 🫡