US30 trade ideas
DOW JONES SELLOn the last day of January, the price on the monthly chart picked up liquidity above the November and December peaks.
On the daily chart, the price does not break through the last peak, because of the range in which it is visible that buyers are losing strength and sellers are taking over. This week, buyers are making their last attempt and after that the price is making a second bearish candle in the range in which the price is, I expect the price to fall in the coming days/weeks. The first take profit zone will be the last daily demand zone. For a more precise entry, we can use the H4 chart and wait the pullback of move that started on Friday.
Bearish continuationYM is currently in a bearish trend and may likely continue this trajectory after having broken through a consolidation phase between 43700 and 43300 to the downside. As of now, price action is trying to rise and retest the break zone and its upper bound. If it remains under 43700, price action may continue in its downward direction towards support barriers below situated at 43050 and 42500.
US30 Trading Strategy That’s Been Proven to WorkThis strategy is backtested over trades and works best during the New York session (9:30 AM - 12 PM EST).
Here’s how it works:
Step 1: Identify Key Levels
These are the support & resistance areas where institutions place big orders.
Look for previous highs, lows,
Step 2: Wait for a Liquidity Grab
Banks love to trick retail traders by creating fake breakouts.
We wait for price to break a key level, trap traders, then reverse.
Step 3: Enter on Confirmation
Once we see a liquidity grab, we wait for a strong rejection candle (pin bar, engulfing, etc.).
Entry is placed at the close of the confirmation candle.
Step 4: Set Stop Loss & Take Profit
Stop loss: Just beyond the liquidity grab.
Take profit: At least 2x the stop loss distance for a 1:2 risk-reward ratio.
Dow Jones Index Analysis – Daily TimeframeThe Dow Jones Index is currently in a corrective wave, and until this range phase is over, a strong new move is unlikely. However, once the correction is completed, the index could resume its upward trend.
🔹 The key support level in the long-term timeframe is 41,600.
🔹 In the medium-term, the critical level to watch is 44,000.
🎯 The long-term target is set at 46,600.
📈 Upon completion of the corrective wave, the expected growth is approximately 12%.
US30 (Dow Jones) Probability Analysis – March 4, 2025
Market Structure Across Multiple Timeframes (M15, M30, H1, H4, D1)
Key Observations (Multi-Timeframe Analysis)
1️⃣ 15-Minute (M15)
Price has dropped from the PDH (Previous Day’s High) and is now consolidating around the PWL (Previous Weak Low).
Liquidity sweep at PDH led to a sharp decline.
Equilibrium at 43,500 could act as a mid-range resistance if price retraces.
Potential bounce or breakdown from the 43,200 demand zone.
2️⃣ 30-Minute (M30)
Price has fully retraced from the premium zone near 44,300.
PDH (43,800) is confirmed as a strong resistance, leading to a bearish structure.
The next key zone is around 43,000 - 42,900 (liquidity zone).
If price holds above 43,200, a short-term rally could occur toward 43,500.
3️⃣ 1-Hour (H1)
Major bearish BOS (Break of Structure) confirms bearish sentiment.
Equilibrium at 43,500 aligns as a potential resistance zone.
If price breaks below PWL (43,100), next support sits around 42,900 - 42,850.
A retracement to 43,500 - 43,600 could give a short entry.
4️⃣ 4-Hour (H4)
Price is in the Discount Zone after a significant sell-off.
Previous premium zone (44,200) rejected price, leading to a shift in momentum.
If price holds above 43,200, a retracement could be seen towards 43,500.
If price breaks 43,100, a move to 42,850 is expected.
5️⃣ Daily (D1)
Major liquidity grab from the 44,200 supply zone confirms bearish sentiment.
Price is currently testing support around 43,200.
Failure to hold this level could lead to a further decline toward 42,900 - 42,700.
A retracement toward 43,500 - 43,800 could be a shorting opportunity.
1️⃣ Bearish Entry Plan (Short Position)
Entry Criteria (Short)
Ideal Entry Zone: 43,500 – 43,600 (Equilibrium & Lower High).
Confirmations Needed:
Rejection from 43,500 - 43,600 with strong bearish candles.
Break of structure (BOS) on M15/M5 confirming bearish intent.
Liquidity grab near equilibrium before dropping.
Entry Trigger
If price retraces to 43,500 and fails to break above, enter short.
Stop Loss (SL)
Above 43,700 (recent lower high).
Take Profit (TP)
First TP: 43,200 (current demand zone).
Final TP: 42,900 (strong demand zone).
📉 Risk-to-Reward (R:R) → 1:4 or higher.
2️⃣ Bullish Entry Plan (Long Position)
Entry Criteria (Long)
Ideal Entry Zone: 43,100 – 43,200 (PWL & Demand Zone).
Confirmations Needed:
Bullish reaction at 43,100 - 43,200 without breaking lower.
Higher low formation on M15 or M5.
Strong bullish candle confirmation.
Entry Trigger
If price rejects 43,100 and shows bullish strength, enter long.
Stop Loss (SL)
Below 42,900 (next liquidity zone).
Take Profit (TP)
First TP: 43,500 (Equilibrium retest).
Final TP: 43,800 (Bearish Breaker Level).
📈 Risk-to-Reward (R:R) → 1:3 or higher.
3️⃣ Neutral Strategy (Wait for Confirmation)
If price remains between 43,100 – 43,500, avoid trading.
Wait for either a bearish rejection (short) or a demand hold (long).
Break below 43,100 confirms shorts, while strong demand at 43,200 could give a long opportunity.
Trading Plan Summary
Setup Entry Zone SL TP1 TP2 R:R
✅ Short 43,500 – 43,600 Above 43,700 43,200 42,900 1:4+
🚨 Long 43,100 – 43,200 Below 42,900 43,500 43,800 1:3+
Final Thoughts
Bearish Bias: If price rejects 43,500 - 43,600, expect a drop to 42,900.
Bullish Bias: If price holds above 43,100 - 43,200, expect a bounce to 43,500 - 43,800.
Wait for confirmations before entering trades.
Dow Jones: Neutrality Strengthens Around 44,000 PointsThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has fluctuated within a 1% range over the past few trading sessions, encountering a neutral barrier near the 44,000-point zone.
For now, investors remain cautious as uncertainty grows amid trade and diplomatic tensions from the White House with multiple countries. This prolonged uncertainty has reinforced a neutral bias in recent price movements.
Persistent Neutrality
Currently, the Dow Jones remains trapped in a sideways range, with:
45,000 resistance at the upper boundary.
42,300 support at the lower boundary.
The price remains in the middle of this range, reinforcing the market’s indecision. As long as price action stays within this zone, the neutral structure may extend further in the coming sessions.
MACD Indicator
MACD movements confirm the current neutral market outlook. Both the MACD line and signal line remain oscillating near the 0 neutral zone.
The histogram also remains close to 0, indicating low momentum. As long as these conditions persist, price neutrality is likely to continue in the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
45,000 – Key Resistance:
Upper boundary of the sideways range.
A breakout above this level could mark new highs, potentially reviving the long-term uptrend that has been stagnant in recent weeks.
43,000 – Neutral Zone:
Converges with the 50-period and 100-period moving averages.
Also aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
The most important short-term barrier that could limit any short-term bullish attempt.
If price fails to reclaim this level, bearish momentum could grow.
42,000 – Critical Support:
Lower boundary of the sideways channel. A break below this level could create a stronger bearish bias, potentially threatening the long-term uptrend that has been in place since last year.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
US30 Long: Bullish Outlook with Higher Targets Ahead Long Position on US30 – Targeting 43,680
1. Uptrend Confirmation
- US30 is forming higher highs and higher lows, confirming a strong bullish trend.
- A breakout above recent resistance levels suggests continued upside momentum.
2. Moving Averages Support
- The price is trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
- A potential golden cross (50 MA crossing above 200 MA) could further support upward movement.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels
- The index has bounced off a strong support zone, indicating buyers stepping in.
- A confirmed breakout above resistance suggests an upward push toward the 43,680 target.
4. Momentum & RSI Confirmation
- RSI remains above 50, showing bullish strength without being overbought.
- A bullish divergence in RSI and price action supports further upside.
5. Volume & Market Participation
- Increasing buying volume on rallies confirms strong bullish momentum.
- Weak selling volume during pullbacks indicates a lack of downside pressure.
6. Fibonacci & Technical Targets
- The 43,680 target aligns with Fibonacci extension levels, making it a realistic price objective.
- If momentum continues, additional upside levels may be tested beyond this zone.
US30 LongTarget at 45,273 have still not been met.
Price has kept collecting orders at in order to reach that target.
Two weeks ago we saw price tank heavily in an attempt to collect orders at an liquidity region.
This region seems to be at 43,100 daily liquidity level.
Price hit that daily level and then we saw a sudden surge of buy momentum, indicating that price is going high.
Price has broken structure on the daily and 4 hour timeframes, indicating that price will continue going upwards.
Due to the monthly and weekly candlestick closures, I can tell that price is due to retrace lower before going upwards.
I expect price to retrace lower forming an obvious liquidity region before I buy.
$US30 03/03 UPDATES.Busted out last time trying to short.
Pinpoint spotting on $43,496.52 mentioned on Friday.
Handle to watch here.
$44,134/180.
Stops by default automatically sits at $44,500
Until we get some closures that can confirm to tighten things up…
Rejections will send this thing straight into $43k which was the initial goal with lower end potentials of $42,500s.
LFG 🏦
US30 *Possible short term sell.Daily chart analysis* Market in an Up trend, at price 45,040.38 had made a double top, that was the highest price historically. Currently is retracing at 43,327.36 zone, waiting on a 4 hour/1 hour timeframe if price is going to break or retest that zone for a possible short term sell from the retracement zone to the trend line and support zone at 41,741.22.
Future Possible buy zone at 41,741.22 or sell if support zone and trend line is broken and retested.
Bull To ResumeFriday's action saw a solid rally and pivot, fuelled by shorts covering.
Expect a rally from Friday's low to continue for a few weeks at least, a possible ascending triangle in the making, any breach of Friday's low would suggest the top is in and a bear market in the making.
Gold was hammered last week, that is good news for those eager to buy either leveraged positions or the physical.
We are in a wave 5 up, only wave 1 up just completed, wave two down can find support around the 2790-2800 area, forget about the 3000 level, that's the mainstream narrative..look upwards to 3300-3500!
Australian prices have hardly moved, still $4600, we expect $10,000 at some point, a target dismissed by many a few years ago.
Appreciate a thumbs up, good trading and God Bless you all!