Merry Christmas Everyone!May your day be merry and bright as we spend time with the ones who really count and give to those who really need.
Best wishes,
ShirokiHeishi
USDOLLAR trade ideas
US Dollar Index Macro View 23/12 - Merry ChristmasThere is no surprise that Federal Reserve rate hike, US Dollar Index rallied after. Investor were looking for Fed Chair Powell dovish tone but his comments came out optimistic. The dollar rose despite the fact that 10-year Treasury yields dropped. Small adjustment in the statement on lowered growth and inflation forecast, these changes were not significant to push the dollar lower. Fed Chair Powell’s comments that he made it clear that nothing is predetermined and everything is data dependent but he also said the sharp decline in US equities and tightening of financial market conditions has not fundamentally altered their outlook. The Fed still plan to raise interest rates in 2019 and most policy makers expect the economy to grow. However, if the bond market continues to fall, it will be difficult for the dollar to sustain its strength.
The US Dollar Index chart did not change last week ranging between 12330 & 12260 levels. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
Upcoming week will be a quiet trading week ahead.
ForexBriefcase takes this opportunity to wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
USDOLLAR (24-12-2018 until 28-12-2018)Monthly:
Bullish in progress.
Weekly:
Bullish in progress.
Short term might be bearish.
Daily:
Price consolidation in progress.
The price is consolidating within the triangle range.
4-Hours:
Bullish and bearish are fighting each other.
1-Hour:
Price rebound within the triangle.
Prepare to buy when there is a dip.
Price consolidation seems to be taking more time than expected.
Be patient and keep cash with your account.
As long as there is money to trade, you still can win.
Stick to your money management plan.
Only loss 2% of your account money. Let the winner win.
US Dollar Index Macro View 16/12Past week, Producer Price Indexes came out better than expected, U.S. consumer prices unchanged and U.S. Retail Sales previous data are revised upwards. Leading to a stronger US Dollars. Upcoming FOMC Economic Projections, Statement, interest rates and Press Conference 30 mins after data release. The Federal Reserve, is highly likely to hike interest rates for the fourth time this year, but how many more hikes will come in 2019?
The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12330 & 12260 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12200 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break strongly above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12260 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
USDOLLAR (17-12-2018 until 21-12-2018)Monthly:
Bull and uptrend still happening.
Weekly:
Price consolidation is in progress.
Daily:
Price uptrend in progress. Breakout just happen and retracted.
Need to wait price hit the resistance and prepare to buy.
4-Hour:
Price down for short term and consolidate.
1-Hour:
Wait for the price to hit resistance and prepare for uptrend.
Be careful of the short term price short fall.
US DOLLAR INDEX - SUPPLY AND DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISWhenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following:
- Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones)
- Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit at horizontal, diagonal & dynamic support/resistance areas)
- What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off)
If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked.
Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take.
Process over outcome!
US Dollar Index Macro View 08/12Past week, 10 year Treasury rates dropped below 2.9% which will concerns about inflation and growth. No agreements will be made in the next 90 days for the next round of tariffs. Unemployment Claims increased, ADP reported smaller than expected rise in employment and Challenger Job Cuts y/y job cuts rose 51.5% in November. Trade balance also widened but factory orders and durable goods fell. ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 60.7 from 60.3 but the employment component of the report declined. Friday Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Non-Farm Employment Change have both decrease while Unemployment Rate remains the same. Job growth slowed than improved in the month of November. ADP report significantly lower employment change but jobless claims increased, consumer confidence is down and most importantly, the employment component of the service sector activity report fell. While stocks fell sharply over the past 2 months, the US labor market are affected as business may have grown conservative about hiring.
The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12280 & 12200 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
US DOLLAR INDEX - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi Traders,
Is it time to short the dollar at the supply zone? well, from a fundamental perspective, the dollar is still king. The fed still looking likely to hike interest rates and the economy is still on track. Compare the US economy with recent Japan GDP figures, uncertainty around Brexit and Italian budget worries and you'll see that it's not a wise move to short the dollar at the moment.
From a technical perspective, the level of supply that price has reached has been touched a couple of times so is likely to break. support and resistance traders (purple zone) believe that the more a level is touched the stronger a level becomes, which is false. price can reverse at this level but the question you have to ask is shorting the usdollar (on other usd crosses) is the right trade opportunity?
USDOLLAR INDEX - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi traders.
Whenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following:
- Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones)
- Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit)
- What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off)
If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked.
Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take.
Process over outcome!
US Dollar Index Macro View 01/12 - G20 meeting outcome?The US Dollar fell after Fed chair Jerome Powell surprised the market by saying that interest rates are “just below” neutral levels. He believes economy will continue growth with low unemployment and inflation around 2%, but he thinks moving too quickly could risk shortening the US expansion. Personal income and spending grew more than expected but jobless claims increased and pending home sales fell sharply. FOMC minutes did not help the dollar even though Fed officials saw the need for another rate hike. Even though there is a pickup in spending, the momentum in the economy is slowing. We might see if US delay additional tariffs with China in the G20 meeting until further talks, we could see a rally in equities and currencies. Upcoming data on the calendar that could market moving are Fed Chair Powell testifies and the non-farm payroll.
The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12300 & 12225 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
ForexBriefcase deepest condolences to former US President George W. Bush. RIP.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
USDOLLAR (03-12-2018 until 07-12-2018)Monthly:
Bullish still is the strong trend.
Weekly:
Bullish still in strong trend. Hitting the resistance from previous price action.
Consolidating in progress.
Daily:
Price action seems weak and the bull might rest.
4-Hour:
While the bull rest, the price might go south in the short term.
Consolidating within the triangle.
1-Hour:
Short term bearish, maybe.
US Dollar Index Macro View 25/11 - Bull or Bear?For the past week, Durable Goods Orders dropped -4.4%, jobless claims increased and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower. While Building Permits & Housing Starts came out as expected, it becomes clear that the momentum in the U.S. economy is easing. With stocks nearly coming back down of this all of this year’s rise, investors and business are not excited about the outlook for the economy. Central bank’s optimism could begin suffer as businesses delay investments and curtail hiring on the labor market. Upcoming data on the calendar that could market moving are Consumer Confidence, Q3 Prelim GDP revisions, Goods Trade Balance, Personal Spending, Personal Income and FOMC Meeting Minutes.
The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12260 & 12200 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short USDHitting the ceiling too many times will exhaust all the bulls and allow the shorters to step in.
SHORTTTTDollar gives a big short call. With dollar falling buy euro, gold, cable, sell usdjpy , usdcad.
US Dollar Index Macro View 18/11The US Dollar Index last week are unable to stay above 12260 levels even though there was an increase of consumer prices and retail sales numbers. Ultimately, the Fed policy direction until December are still clear and recent stocks are under pressure for investors to look back into US dollars. The long-term still remains as unchanged constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term still remains unchanged, where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term are suggesting back to sideway might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
Upcoming Thursday is a US thanksgiving day, a US Federal holidays. Wishing all US citizen, a happy holiday.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
USDOLLAR (19-Nov-2018 until 23-Nov-2018)Monthly Chart:
Still in bullish forming trend.
Weekly Chart:
Looks like forming head and shoulder.
Need to be careful. As it hits around the previous resistance and drop.
Short term for weekly chart is consolidating or bearish.
Daily Chart:
Daily chart is getting hit on the resistance.
The bullish is exhausted.
Short term consolidating between 12261 and 12071.
4-Hour Chart:
Trend line for short term broken.
Likely to be bearish for short term.
Lets observe and find a good point to buy and continue the bullish.
Patient is the key to success in trading.
Trade only what you know and not what you don't know.
Trade only regarding the timeline that you are familiar with.
Do not let your emotion or panic affect your trading plan and decision making.
US Dollar Index Weekly PredictionSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
US Dollar Index weekly Prediction
Chart time frame - H4
Timeframe - 1-2 weeks
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
US Dollar Index will see another bull run this week.
B – Beliefs
Market will be rejected at @12276 level however consolidate and then move towards the first Target 1 level @ 12315.
Trade Management
Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation
Stop Loss @
Target @
Risk/Reward @
Happy Trading :)
USDOLLAR (12-11-2018 until 16-11-2018)Monthly Chart
Bullish ongoing.
It is approaching the resistance at the left side.
It might be bullish, might be consolidating, might be building shoulder to go bearish.
Weekly Chart
Hitting resistance and weekly chart might be consolidating or going down to create lower high.
Daily Chart
The lower high has been created, and trend line is hit for a rebound to higher high.
At the same time, the bullish seems to be exhausting and side way or consolidation is expected for next week.
May try to enter for small position to test the market if want to.
4-Hour Chart
Observe if it breaks the left hand side high.
Hourly Chart
Hourly chart is moving higher high.
Decided to trade small position with tight stop loss, test the market.
Will add in more position if the direction is correct.
US Dollar Index Macro View 10/11The US Dollar Index for last week has break down below 12200 levels and came back up again during the season of US Midterm Elections and Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement. To no one’s surprise, further gradual increases of interest rates is to be seen in December. The long-term still remains as unchanged constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term still remains unchanged, where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term are suggesting constructive for bull when prices break above 12260 to be seen for upcoming week. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
As Sunday is a US Veteran Day, Monday will be a US Banks Holiday (Observance of Veterans Day). Wishing all US citizen, a happy holiday.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Head and Shoulders in the making?With the recent tumble in US equity markets, will the Fed continue to hike rates? If not, the USD could see some significant weakness...
See callout bubbles. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
US Dollar under potential threat as de-dollarization sets in.In this screencast, I'm looking ahead for potential moves, possibly south in the US-Dollar. This is about preparedness.
In the video I explore emerging geopolitical and macroeconomic issues that are taking place.
The US-Dollar strength has big influence at this time on:
1. Commodities
2. Metals - especially Gold and Silver
3. Oil
4. Stock markets in the US and elsewhere.
5. US-Dollar currency pairs.
- and more. This thing is big!
There is reliable information about a silent forex war happening largely unseen as China, Russia and Japan are giving up US debt, and moving into Gold and Crytocurrencies. I don't do predictions, so I'm unable to say what this would mean for the future.
Do not take my word for it - check out this stuff on reliable information channels (unable to give further information here - but PM me if you wish).
US Dollar Index Macro View 3/11The US Dollar Index unable to reach its mark at 12330 levels before strong bear kicks in breaking down strongly through 12260 and found some support at 12200. The long-term still remains as unchanged constructive for bull, till price break below 12200 to 12100 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term still remains unchanged, where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term still remains unchanged, that sideways might be seen for upcoming week. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12200 levels.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
What happened to the US Dollar?The US-Dollar got hammered on most pairs in the last day or two. Day traders may have suffered or gained.
The US-Dollar index shows what happened. On the Daily time frame US-Dollar is still pretty bullish, so stay tuned on lower time frames.
