No Fear!The market is dumping fear along with the dollar. You know what that means, right? Pump incoming.
VOLX trade ideas
SPX v VIX 10/4/22Other than this sell no trade so far this week. Market's been moving outside of my trading window and the one setup that i could have taken was yesterday morning. Nothing looking good in my opinion at the moment so I'm just sitting on my hands and being patient for now.
VIX volume indicator coming off the high 32.685
SPX coming off the low as VIX coming off the high
The buy for this week is one that is moving up on decreasing volume
VIX Another RejectionIt looks like VIX 4hr has had yet another rejection off the key structure resistance. There were quite a few big out of the money call buyers on the Nov 16 calls and they all cashed in at resistance again which is always interesting to watch. This is mostly institutional buyers.
Meanwhile the retail stock option traders are holding record put options on stocks totaling over 34 million contracts.
Was it a massive bear trap that we saw on stocks? Time will tell how much short covering we see in this attempted rally.
VIX: time for some short vol?A price action below 33.05 supports a bearish trend direction.
Further bearish trend support below 31.65.
Consolidation price range from 28.60 to 31.60.
Crossing below the 28.60 support might target 25.65 (200-day simple moving average and 38.2 Fib)
Crossing above 31.60 might be the first sign of bullishness returning.
Retracting from the upper range of the Bollinger Bands, supporting a correction.
Remains a risky trade.
volatility consolidation to go higher levels once finishing correction inside triangle will go to high
VIX action today fits perfect with short term expectations6/
$VIX clipped today
Another big RED (down) candle & lower highs
Fits perfectly to what we've been saying for few days
&
For longer term outlook
We see ton of volatility next few days = good few month bottom
$NDX is @ DO or DIE!, bounce more likely
#stocks #crypto
S&P500 and VIXLast 30% VIX oversold spike (10-21 Jun) was excellent buying opportunity.
- Resolved in month-long bullish #SPX500 correction.
This is a second time we have 30% VIX oversold spike (23 Sep - 04 Oct).
+ Longer period (Cause = Effect)
Another excellent buying opportunity?
I say YES.
VIX Key ResistanceVIX is testing resistance again on this long term structure. Interesting to see if there is another rejection or a breakout.
VIX Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 VIX Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022
We can see that currently the volatility is around 14.08% for this week, decrising from the 14.3% from the last week.
Currently there is around 35.5% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel:
TOP 37.72
BOT 28.28
The current volatility percentile is around 15th. With this situations in general the market moves:
AVG weekly bull candle = 12.73%
AVG weekly bear candle = 9.15%
With this mind, from the opening price it would situate us around
TOP 37.2
BOT 29.98
At the same time, due to the nature of the opening price, making this weekly candle a bearish candle, there is currently a
37% that we will break the ath of previous weekly candle of 35, and there is a 60% that we will touch the low of the previous week of 29.4
From the technical analysis point of view:
The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 92% agreement that the market is in a bearish trend ( the current price is above those moving averages)
News that can affect the price of this asset this week:
- Monday 3 October : ISM PMI
- Tuesday 4 October : JOLT Job
- Wednesday 5 October : ADP and ISM release
- Thursday 6 October : Initial Jobless Claims and ECB Report
- Friday 7 October: Nonfarm Payrolls
$VIX in Symmetrical Triangle Mode - IMO MOAC in 20235/
$VIX is trading in Symmetrical Triangle
Tends to be a continuation pattern
What's the pattern?
The dotted purple line
Last year we coined #MOAC (AFAIK)
IMO something next year unless something out of the ordinary happens
$SPX is close to MAJOR SUPPORT
#stocks #crypto $SPY
VIX Diamond reversal may reach 27/25 for a 4Q election rally?VIX reach the major resistance at 35. There is a great chance this diamond pattern may bring down VIX
back to 27 support or the ideal 25 just in time for a historical 4Q midterm election rally into December.
Watch next few days to see if price bounces up from diamond base or continues down.
Not trading advice
Question: When does the bear Market end....?Answer: When this has spiked at least once into this box....
Clearly with A VIX at 31.Long way to go before a bottom...apple comes down to 100-105 msft 150-175 and/or the VIX above 50!! until than no bottom...Vix is so orderly telling me we will not reprice 15 plus years of a Mirage of a market aka QE and 0% rates in 7 months...takes years after the failed fed experiment with 9 trillion on the balance sheet.....and hundreds of other headwinds WITH ZERO tailwinds
𝗩𝗼𝗹. 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $VIX Weekly. Five-wave patternHas built a triangle (five-wave pattern) over the course of this year. If resistance ~32 continues to hold could see a pullback, which would be bullish for equities
$VXX $SPY $SPX $QQQ $GLD $TLT $TNX $DXY
VIX Feels Like a Smoldering Volcano 🌋 Post-2020 Parabolic MoveThe consolidation pattern in the $VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario.
From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during August 2022.
This head fake has allowed the $VIX to retake the bottom of the channel and continue up and up after every headline the market fears. Despite the approach of overbought levels, the bear market rally on Wednesday, September 28 gave volatility room to run.
It appears probable a consolidation pattern around 36-38 will level off the relative strength as of late, occurring for the month of October when the market could stage a short-term rally. Coincidentally, this will set up the $VIX right into the midterm elections...
To be clear, sirens won't start popping off on $SPY $QQQ and $DIA until a decisive, sustained move over 36.79 occurs. If that happens, a move to 47.20 seems like a no-brainer.
Notably, that is a test of the top of the rising channel , confirming 2 technical scenarios with the midterm elections as the catalyst for the next leg.
Keep your head on a swivel and keep an eye on the volatility of $VIX $TLT and $DXY for directional signposts in the broader market. Also, it's important to remember Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, Russian tensions, Europe energy or monetary headlines, and CPI could all eliminate this hypothesis.
VIX one more spike tomorrow into 1.618 imoVIX has one more push to go imo, this is not out of the woods just yet, its a begging.
It should see 55-65 Oct/Nov imo
VIX Feels Like a Smoldering Volcano 🌋 Post-2020 Parabolic MoveThe consolidation pattern in the TVC:VIX VIX goes back to June 2020 after the initial COVID flash-crash scenario.
From June '21 to November '21, you started to see a bottoming formation turning into a new uptrend , subtle as might've been. The uptrend has chopped around in this rising channel since the end of 2021 up until the recent false breakdown during August 2022.
This head fake has allowed the TVC:VIX to retake the bottom of the channel and continue up and up after every headline the market fears. Despite the approach of overbought levels, the bear market rally on Wednesday, September 28 gave volatility room to run.
It appears probable a consolidation pattern around 36-38 will level off the relative strength as of late, occurring for the month of October when the market could stage a short-term rally. Coincidentally, this will set up the TVC:VIX right into the #MidTerms...
To be clear, sirens won't start popping off on AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ , and AMEX:DIA until a decisive, sustained move over 36.79 occurs. If that happens, a move to 47.20 seems like a no-brainer.
Notably, that is a test of the top of the rising channel , confirming 2 technical scenarios with the midterm elections as the catalyst for the next leg.
Keep your head on a swivel and keep an eye on volatility of TVC:VIX , NASDAQ:TLT , and TVC:DXY for directional signposts in the broader market. Also, it's important to remember Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, Russian tensions, Europe energy or monetary headlines, and CPI could all eliminate this hypothesis.
Short term bearish VIXHey all, I think the VIX is going to pull back in the near future, but will eventually break out and head higher; the VIX has already been rejecting at resistance here, and I expect it to cool off before we see true capitulation int he stock market. I've noticed the VIX hasn't really spiked despite the market falling to this point, and I don't expect the market to fall much more in the immediate future as I am of the opinion that we're a bit extended to the downside. T
Volmagddeon 2.0 and Volatility Road MapI think, finally, after four years of institution distribution and retail gambling, we are at the conclusion of the 90 year bull market since the end of the Great Depression. Today, the volatility index breeched the support line since beginning of this near-term bear trend which started in Nov 2021. After at least a decade of manipulating capitalistic markets and converting them from fairly sound investment instruments to the largest gambling casino on Earth, the devil work of the central banks has finally caught up with them. There is nowhere left to hide today except the USD and eventually high yielding conservative bonds. Bond markets, metals, commodities, housing, crypto, stocks, all are heading to the abyss. One can join value investors or bears, like myself, but I'm fairly sure most of us have committed financial suicide, been burned at the stake by society or, at the least, beaten to a pulp over these years of trying to show the truth. That's why mostly I just tell folks to get out completely and be happy with a dragon's hoard of cash.
Enough ranting. Volatility is the Phoenix of the market, fire breathing Goddess of the truth. I think volmageddon 2.0 has arrived and we are in for a hell of a decade. Depression is in the cards. Hopefully we don't break out into WW3 but it's certainly possible. Hang on because after it's all over, we should enter the best phase of humanity yet... once all the lies & corruption have been cleansed.
GL to all!
VIX decade-long uptrend; where the line in the sand really isIf I could sleep for the next 6 months I would be able to guess very accurately how current world events unfolded from the decibel levels recorded here
$VIX @ pattern top, bottom for 2022? MOAC 2023?Other banks will probably follow the #BankofEngland
#Fed Reserve is watching & it fits SHORT TERM bull narrative
Updated $VIX - Don't see a major crash in 2022
#stocks #crypto #VIX $SPX $SPY $NDX #NDX $DJI #DowJones #NASDAQ100 $BTC $ETH
VIX Mid Term AnalyisVIX is an index representing the market's expectations for volatility and fear.
When VIX goes up, the volatility and fear are going up too, and as a result the markets usually goes down.
As you can see, the VIX broke last week a trend that continued for 250+ days, and currently it's retesting the line.
The RSI indicator is positive, not low but not too high, and no negative divergances.
The MACD indicator also shows strengh, while the blue line is above the orange line.
The SSL indicator is the same, completely positive.
30 is a strong support and I think that it'll hold it. We are going for a triple retest - for the trendline, the Fib .618, and the 30 support.
My targets are 35,38,45,48.
By this analysis, we can assume that the markets will have a high volatility in the coming weeks/months, and it might cause a continuation of the bear market in stocks and cryptos.
