Intermarket analysis, Gold the perfect SAFE HEAVENThe image shows the comparative performance of various assets, with gold being the only one in positive territory at +8.70% while everything else has declined.
Gold: +8.70% (showing strong upward trend)
S&P 500: -4.13% (showing significant decline)
USD: -1.89% (US Dollar Index showing weakness)
Oil: -9.76% (substantial drop)
BTC (Bitcoin): -17.83% (showing the steepest decline of all assets tracked)
Gold indeed appears to be fulfilling its traditional role as a "safe haven" asset during market turbulence. During periods of economic uncertainty or market volatility, investors often flock to gold as a store of value, which seems to be happening in early 2025 according to this chart.
The timeline shown covers January through early March 2025, and the divergence between gold and other assets became particularly pronounced from mid-February onward. This pattern suggests investors seeking safety amid broader market declines.
DXY trade ideas
U.S Dollar Technical analysis.The image is a technical analysis chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1-hour timeframe from TradingView. Here’s what it represents:
Downtrend Line: A blue trendline shows a previous downward trend.
Support Zone: A purple rectangular box highlights a support level around 103.654–103.363.
Breakout and Retest: The price appears to have broken out of the downtrend and is forming a potential bullish setup.
Projected Move: A blue arrow suggests a bullish breakout after a possible retest of the support zone.
Target Level: The projected upside target is approximately 105.204.
Economic Event Indicators: U.S. flag icons at the bottom suggest upcoming fundamental events that might impact the price.
This analysis suggests that traders anticipate a reversal from the support zone, aiming for higher price levels. Let me know if you need further insights!
DXY Breakdown: Major Support in Play or More Downside Ahead?Welcome back, guys! 👋
I'm Skeptic , and let's kick off the week with a unique and exciting analysis of DXY.
🔍 Daily Time Frame Analysis
Starting with the daily time frame, DXY recently hit a significant peak at 109.655 , followed by a sharp decline, breaking below the critical support zone at 107.405 . This breakdown resulted in forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish structure. Afterward, DXY retraced sharply to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of its major uptrend, signaling a potential corrective phase.
Although the sentiment remains bearish for now, we must consider the possibility of a price reversal from this crucial support zone.
⏳ 4H Time Frame Analysis
Now, moving to the 4-hour time frame, as discussed in the previous analysis, we anticipated a breakdown of 104.235 , which indeed played out, hitting our target of 103.398 . Currently, the 104.235 level serves as a 4H resistance, while 103.303 acts as a daily support.
These two levels form our main triggers:
💚 Long Trigger: Above 104.259 (confirming a potential reversal)
🔴 Short Trigger: Below 103.303 (aligned with the short-term downtrend)
The short trigger has a higher win rate and risk-to-reward ratio since it aligns with the ongoing bearish trend.
💡 Final Thoughts
Thanks for sticking with me through this analysis! I hope your week ahead is profitable and insightful.
Remember, planning and executing trades with clarity is the key to long-term success.
Catch you on the next breakdown! 🚀
Strange Event in the DollarLast week had one of the strangest events of all time: simultaneous declines in the U.S. dollar index and the S&P 500.
This weekly chart includes a special script that calculates the simple change of the main symbol (DXY) and a second symbol (SPX). If they both move in the same direction by a user-defined threshold, the script plots a white arrow in the lower study.
Big, coordinated drops are unusual because the two indexes typically move in opposite directions. SPX is a “risk” asset while DXY is a “safe haven.” That’s why stock-market selloffs often see the U.S. dollar rally.
Since the data began in 1967, coordinated declines of at least 2 percent have only happened 15 times. This highlights the normal inverse relationship.
Adjusting the script’s threshold to -3 percent, we find last week was one of only two on record with coordinated declines of that magnitude.
In other words, markets just saw a historic coordinated weakness in both the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks. European and Chinese benchmarks rallied at the same time, which suggests it wasn’t a pure “risk off” move.
These events occur against the backdrop of tariffs and hopes of increased German defense spending. They potentially suggest investors see more opportunity overseas following years of American exceptionalism.
The only other time DXY and SPX fell so sharply at the same time was in September 1981. That instance was less meaningful because it was just a quick pullback in the midst of a strong uptrend.
Last week, on the other hand, DXY was stuck below an earlier high and could be trending lower.
Investors may view this as a freak event. Or they may think it’s a sign of capital moving away from the U.S. Either way, it’s an unusual signal that could merit watching.
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DXY OUTLOOK SECOND WEEK OF MARCHShort-Term Outlook (This Week):
Recent trends indicate the dollar has been under pressure. This is partly due to shifting market expectations regarding the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts.
Therefore, in the short term, there is a possibility that the DXY will remain weak.
Monitoring of upcoming economic data releases will be very important.
Longer-Term Outlook (Going Forward):
The long-term direction of the DXY will depend on the interplay of the factors mentioned above.
If the Fed begins to cut rates, the dollar is likely to weaken.
However, if global economic uncertainty increases, the dollar could strengthen due to its safe-haven status.
Also, political events, especially those related to the upcoming U.S. elections, can cause large swings in the DXY.
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which is an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 104.42
1st Support: 102.65
1st Resistance: 105.26
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The US index is at support level for again pull backThe US index is at support level; just mark the news of Dollars today and wait for confirmations on the H4 level to take the good trades.
Keep in mind!!!!!
If the US index gains some strength from the said level (103.84–103.10) and starts bullish, then the major pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD, and XAUUSD start falling.
DXY: Two FVGs and a key level – what to expect next week?Next week, the dollar index (DXY) is approaching a key moment: two formed FVGs and an important support/resistance level can determine the further direction of movement. Will we see a rebound or a breakout with a continuation of the trend? We analyze the scenarios and prepare for possible changes in market dynamics.
DOLLAR I Monthly FVG is target. Short if we get pullbackIs going into the Monthly FVG. if it will give a pullback before reaching it. We will get good chances on the EUR and GBP longs.
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Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
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$DXY MMSMIn my view, the DXY could have a bullish bias this week, but only as a correction after last week's sharp drop. The main bias is still bearish, as we are on the sell side of the curve. Therefore, long trades should be approached with caution since the price can reverse to the downside at any moment—after all, the market is sovereign, and only it determines its movements.
I remain firmly bearish until the monthly range lows are taken out. I will only reconsider this outlook if the price holds at a high-timeframe PDA and institutional order flow (IOF) signals a potential shift in direction.
Weekly Watchlist & Market Outlook (#1)Welcome back, guys! I’m Skeptic , and today, I’m breaking down my weekly watchlist with key market setups. Having a structured plan before the trading week starts helps you stay mentally prepared, avoid impulsive trades, and stick to your strategy. So, let’s dive in!
1. XAUUSD (Gold) 🟡
Daily TF:
Gold has maintained a strong major uptrend and recently completed a price correction to 2842.15 (36% Fib) before resuming its upward movement. This signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
Trigger (Daily): Break above 2954.24 🔼
4H TF:
Price is currently in a range between 2896 (support) and 2927 (resistance).
Long trigger:Breakout above 2927
Short trigger: Below 2896 (although trading in the trend’s direction is recommended for better R/R).
2. EURJPY 💶
Daily TF: The pair is ranging between 155.551 (support) and 161.166 (resistance).
4H TF:
Long trigger: Breakout above 161.166 📈 (RSI entering overbought territory could add confluence).
Short trigger: Break below 159.291 targeting the range’s bottom.
3. GBPAU D
Daily TF: The key resistance at 2.02396 has been broken, signaling a new uptrend.
4H TF:
Long trigger: Breakout above 2.05139 🔼 for trend continuation.
Short trigger: If 2.02396 fails as support (fake breakout), look for lower TF confirmation.
4. GBPNZD
Daily TF: Similar to GBPAUD, 2.23992 resistance has been broken, and price has pulled back.
4H TF:
Long trigger: Breakout above 2.26565 📈 for continuation.
Short trigger: If 2.23992 fails (fake breakout scenario).
5. AUDNZD
Daily TF:
A strong uptrend was recently broken, potentially signaling a price correction.
4H TF:
Short trigger: Break below 1.10115 🔻 (sign of further downside).
Long trigger: If price reclaims the broken trendline, indicating a fake breakdown.
Final Thoughts 💡
Thanks for following this week’s watchlist! If you have specific pairs or assets you’d like me to analyze, drop them in the comments.
Growing alone may be fast, but in the long run, teamwork wins. Let’s grow together. ❤️
DXY (Dollar Index) Ready to BUY? | Monthly FVG in Focus! 💰 Smart Money Preparing for a Bullish Move on DXY!
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is approaching a key Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG), which could act as a strong demand zone. If price reaches this level, we will look for confirmation on lower timeframes (H4/M15) before entering buys.
🔍 Why is this Important?
✅ Monthly FVG as a High-Probability Buy Zone
✅ Institutional Order Flow Aligning for a Bullish Reversal
✅ Strong Demand Expected at FVG
✅ DXY Strength = Bearish Pressure on Gold & Majors
📊 Key Market Levels:
🔹 Monthly FVG Buy Zone:
🔹 First Target:
🔹 Breakout Confirmation Above:
🔹 Invalidation Below:
⚡ Trading Plan:
📌 Wait for price to reach the Monthly FVG
📌 Look for Bullish Confirmation on H4/M15 (BOS, CHoCH, Liquidity Grab)
📌 Enter Buys Once Institutional Reversal is Confirmed
📌 Manage Risk – Watch CPI & FOMC Events
💥 Stronger DXY = Weak Gold & Bearish Pressure on Majors!
💬 Are you buying DXY at the Monthly FVG? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
#DXY #DollarIndex #Forex #SmartMoney #ICT #SMC #Liquidity #TradingView #OrderFlow