new prediction for USDXSo hello back guys this is my new prediction about usdx and based on that we gonna have some chart on FX pairs for the next week
DXY trade ideas
DXY|LONGDXY long setup |WEEKLY ANALYSIS|
The price in a bullish channel and we have h and sh pattern for break out the bearish trend line..
DXY|LONG SETUPHello, I hope you have a great week ahead. This is my outlook for the Dollar Index, and please feel free to leave your comments and share your own perspective with me.
Initially, on the lower timeframes, I expect a rise to the 108.570 level and a potential breakout into this resistance zone. Afterward, I anticipate a drop to 105.888, which could mark the start of a sharp upward trend from this level. This is just my analysis, not a signal.
BULLISH forecast on DXYWeekly chart is showing a strong bullish candle, anticipating continuation move.
4h showing potential internal range liquidity to external range liquidity move
DXY Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 107.566.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 108.420 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DXY Trading Journal March 2 Previous week in reviewDXY Trading Journal
March 2 Previous week in review
Price had a up closed candle on the weekly taking out previous weeks buy/sell stops.
Monday price takes out previous weeks sell stops and from Dec and closes with a up closed candle.
Tuesday Price raliies to take the buy stops from Monday and aggressively lowers.
Wednesday opens to take Tuesdays lows and then rallies to the high side and creates equal lows.
Thursday opens with a volume unbalance and takes buy stops and rebalances the FVG created from the previous Thursday, i also note a large range day.
Friday Price energetically rallies to take the equal highs with the body of the candle coming to the CE of the SIBI its rebalancing.
Price started the week in a discount on the .79 breaking lower at the start of the week to then seek higher prices.
DXY to Retest $108 - Slight Pain May Lay AheadDXY fractal from 2017 is playing out nicely.
Looks like it will retest $108 mid-March and break $106 in early April (hopefully before).
This lines up perfectly with the Global M2 (12-Week Lead) liquidity injection.
DXY BUY SETUPPrice is coming off an overall monthly retest with a DAILY choch and a DAILY choch retest to continue up towards 114 price point.
DXY update#DXY made a wedge at the end of its pattern this can make a rise as we have a bearish pettern in EURUSD too i think that this rising can go to the fibo level 62% anyway REMEMBER THAT THE WHOLE PATTERN IS STILL BEARISH !
DXY update#DXY made a rise as i told you before the descending wedge made a price rise and we have 2 levels as the target based on fibo levels
Short AUDUSD The Perfect Storm: Stagflation, GeopoliticsIn a world increasingly defined by geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty, a perfect storm is brewing, casting a long shadow over the Australian dollar. The confluence of persistent stagflationary pressures, escalating trade tensions, and a resurgent U.S. dollar is creating a formidable headwind for the AUDUSD pair. This article delves into the intricate web of factors driving this bearish sentiment, offering a comprehensive analysis for macro traders and financial viewers seeking clarity amidst market turbulence.
The Stagflationary Grip: A Global Economic Quagmire
The global economic landscape is ensnared in a precarious dance between "sticky" inflation and a palpable slowdown. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) remains stubbornly elevated, while Producer Price Index (PPI) figures signal continued upward pressure on consumer prices. This persistent inflation, coupled with a weakening housing market, declining consumer confidence, and a sharp contraction in global trade activity (as evidenced by the plummeting Shanghai and China Containerized Freight Indices), paints a stark picture of a "Stagflationary Weakness."
www.census.gov
The Federal Reserve finds itself trapped between a rock and a hard place, grappling with the unenviable task of taming inflation while averting a looming recession. Policy missteps are increasingly probable, further amplifying market anxieties.
Geopolitical Fault Lines and Trade Wars: Fueling the Fire
Adding to the economic woes are escalating geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. The contentious US-Ukraine situation, heightened US-China strategic competition (including technology decoupling and potential military tensions in the South China Sea), and the ever-present threat of cyberattacks are creating an environment of heightened risk aversion.
President Trump's aggressive tariff policies, targeting Canada, Mexico, and China, have ignited fears of retaliatory measures and further disruptions to global trade flows. The market's reaction has been swift and decisive, with the S&P 500 experiencing consecutive weekly declines, reflecting growing investor unease.
The AUDUSD Under Siege: A Technical and Fundamental Breakdown
Against this backdrop, the AUDUSD pair is experiencing a decisive bearish breakdown. The U.S. dollar (DXY), fueled by its safe-haven appeal and the prevailing risk-off sentiment, is exhibiting robust strength, targeting 109.900. This dollar resurgence is exerting significant downward pressure on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar.
Gaining Traction Amidst Global Uncertainty
The AUDUSD has decisively breached the critical 0.64000 level, signaling a clear shift in market sentiment. While rising commodity prices, particularly in energy, have historically provided support for the AUD, the current environment is unique. Geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties are overshadowing the positive impact of rising commodity prices.
Technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), confirm the bearish momentum. The 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are all trending downwards, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Key Support Zone and Outlook:
We have identified a key support zone between 0.61435 and 0.60838. This zone represents a potential area of consolidation or a temporary pause in the downtrend. However, given the strong bearish momentum and the prevailing fundamental factors, we anticipate a continued downward trajectory.
Impact of Strong Dollar and Risk Aversion"
Traders should closely monitor the DXY and global risk sentiment for further confirmation of the bearish trend. Any sustained break of the 0.64000 level would confirm the current outlook.
The AUDUSD pair is currently navigating a perfect storm of stagflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and a resurgent U.S. dollar. This confluence of factors has created a compelling bearish outlook, with technical indicators and fundamental analysis aligning to support continued downward momentum.
In this environment, vigilance and a deep understanding of the global macroeconomic landscape are paramount. Traders must remain attuned to the evolving geopolitical and economic narratives, adapting their strategies to navigate the turbulent waters of the current market. FX:AUDUSD CAPITALCOM:DXY
Dollar index carving out the trangleLooks like the dollar is carving out the D wave of the triangle for the 4th wave of C . Looking for a target of 113+ when the triangle completes.
DXY Trade Idea - Bullish Bias### **📈 DXY Trade Idea - Bullish Bias 🚀**
**🔍 Market Outlook:**
I am now considering **DXY bullish** due to multiple confluences aligning with **ICT & SMC** principles:
✅ **Break of Structure (BOS):** DXY closed above a short-term high, confirming bullish intent. 📊
✅ **Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG):** A strong bullish FVG has formed, acting as a potential support zone. 📉➡️📈
✅ **Unicorn Model + Breaker Block:** ICT structural setup aligns with smart money movements. 🦄📦
✅ **SMC Confirmation:** Price action is in sync with **Smart Money Concepts**, suggesting institutional participation. 🏦💰
### **📌 Trade Plan:**
🔹 **Entry:** Wait for a retracement into the **bullish FVG** or **breaker block** for a high-probability entry. 🎯
🔹 **Stop Loss:** Below the recent **swing low** or the invalidation level. 🚨
🔹 **Take Profit:** Target **liquidity above** the next significant high. 🎯💵
🔹 **Extra Confirmation:** Look for **BOS on lower timeframes (LTF)** and **bullish order flow** before executing. 🔄🔍
Would you like me to add a chart analysis or refine the execution details further? 📊📉📈
DXY BULLISH BIAS|LONG|
✅DXY is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 106.000
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target at 108.600
LONG🚀
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Dollar Index - End of January AnalysisJune 2022 was the last time we witnessed a major bullish run reaching into macro imbalances @ 110.
Donald Trump was elected in November 2024 and ever since, we have witnessed a similar run, in which Dollar punished those who were short based on market trend and sentiment at the time.
Many long term traders saw 106 as ‘safe’ price point to place their buystops but the market had other plans… As the algorithm repriced higher upto 106, it became a self fulfilling prophecy where more buy stops were triggered increasing the likelihood of a low resistance liquidity run.
Highs for the month is 110.176
Lows for the month is 107.969
Bearish bias negated if I see a candle body closure above the monthly highs and CE of 6 month sellside imbalance.
DXY's Plan for the week For the week:
No news monday, anticipating an accumulation phase below the daily gap formed on last Friday.
Tuesday 10:00 am brings the first possible liquidity into the market. I'm waiting for an upside manipulation into the daily fair value gap.
Wednesday may hang around for a little (no news), but the distribution phase can start after price displaced out of the daily gap.
Overall i'm targeting the monthly gap.
Ok be safe byyyyyyyy
DXY -DOLLAR INDEX BIASDollar is very strong and is rallying up, lets see if it can align with our set up on the third touch of the trend line for high sell opportunity on dollar related pairs.
the importance of the liquidation of 106,269 is important beforeThe liquidation of 106,269 is important to walk it before increasing. so we will hope for a drop in the weekly demand zone before any prospect of an increase
US Dollar Index From a Technician’s Point of ViewBuyers and Sellers Squaring Off Between Monthly Support and Resistance
Monthly resistance from 109.33 was a technical headwind I monitored on the US Dollar Index for a while, and so far, it has not disappointed me. The said resistance welcomed moderate selling in February, and although the combination of the 107.35 high (October 2023) and 106.52 high (April 2024) could offer monthly support (see two red arrows), I am also watching the ‘local’ descending monthly support as a potential downside objective, taken from the noted high of 107.35.
Daily AB=CD Support Holds Firm
Meanwhile, price action on the daily timeframe reveals the Index rebounded from an area made up of ‘AB=CD support’ between the 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio at 105.77 and a 100% projection ratio of 106.65. It is common for AB=CD traders to target the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios that are derived from legs A-D, which, in this case, rest at 107.70 and 108.64, respectively. You may also note that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio shares chart space closely with resistance from 107.77. In addition, short-term flow on the H1 timeframe witnessed price rebound from support at 107.24 and shake hands with resistance at 107.61, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio that unites with trendline support-turned-resistance, taken from the low of 106.57.
Daily/H1 Resistances in Focus
Given possible monthly support in play from between 106.52 and 107.35, together with daily price manoeuvring from AB=CD support at 105.77-106.65 to within striking distance of resistance at 107.77 and H1 price connecting with resistance around 107.61, this is a thorny market to trade right now and hinges on how price behaves at the aforementioned daily/H1 resistances. Engulfing the noted resistances unearths a possible bullish scenario to the 50-day simple moving average at 108.00, followed by a potential move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 108.64 on the daily chart. On the other hand, should bears take control of the current resistances, I would look for the unit to retest (and eventually consume) H1 support at 107.24 to potentially target H1 support at 106.75 (located just north of the daily AB=CD support zone).
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
"Bearish Pressure on DXY: Key Levels to Watch"🔹 Technical Analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - 4H Chart
▪️Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
- The chart shows a clear downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), with a series of lower highs and lower lows.
- The price is trading below the 200-period moving average (blue line) and 50-period moving average (red line), reinforcing bearish sentiment.
🔹Key Levels:
1. Strong Resistance Area ( 107.300 - 107.400)
- This is a significant supply zone where sellers have aggressively pushed the price down in the past.
- The price recently tested this area and failed to break higher, indicating strong resistance.
2. Resistance Level for Further Downside ( 106.700 - 106.800)
- The price is struggling to stay above this level, which has now become a short-term resistance zone.
- If price stays below this level, further downside is likely.
3. Target Area ( 105.453)
- This is the next major support level, where price could find buying interest and potentially reverse or consolidate.
▪️Market Expectation:
- Bearish Continuation:
- If price remains below the 106.700 resistance level, it is likely to continue downward towards the 105.453 target zone.
- Invalidation of Bearish Bias:
- If price breaks and closes above 107.400, it could signal a trend reversal or deeper retracement.
🔹Conclusion:
- Bias: Bearish
- Trading Plan: Look for sell opportunities below resistance zones and target 105.453 for a potential move lower.
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Bearish then bullish I think open on Sunday, the USD Will bearish And then it’s probably gonna be bullish
DXY is headed for a Super-cycle TVC:DXY is headed for an e Supercycle that will rival what BTC has gone on over the past 5 years. USDXY’s chart from 1985 to today is the exact same pattern in BTC from 2016 to 2020 with a long double bottom a breakout retest and now the explosive impulsive move upward is left for DXY. The bull flag looks very strong on the chart and considering the length of the consolidation pattern the explosiveness to the upside could be like nothing this asset has ever seen before. As for how I'm actually playing this, I have positioned myself with heavy calls on AMEX:UUP that is the Dollar bull fund and mirrors dxy.
