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US Dollar USDX Index (DXY)US Dollar USDX Index (DXY)US Dollar USDX Index (DXY)

US Dollar USDX Index (DXY)

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DXY OUTLOOK SECOND WEEK OF MARCHShort-Term Outlook (This Week): Recent trends indicate the dollar has been under pressure. This is partly due to shifting market expectations regarding the timing and extent of Fed rate cuts. Therefore, in the short term, there is a possibility that the DXY will remain weak. Monitoring of upcoming economic data releases will be very important. Longer-Term Outlook (Going Forward): The long-term direction of the DXY will depend on the interplay of the factors mentioned above. If the Fed begins to cut rates, the dollar is likely to weaken. However, if global economic uncertainty increases, the dollar could strengthen due to its safe-haven status. Also, political events, especially those related to the upcoming U.S. elections, can cause large swings in the DXY.
TVC:DXYShort
by THEPROTRADERZA
$DXY MMSMIn my view, the DXY could have a bullish bias this week, but only as a correction after last week's sharp drop. The main bias is still bearish, as we are on the sell side of the curve. Therefore, long trades should be approached with caution since the price can reverse to the downside at any moment—after all, the market is sovereign, and only it determines its movements. I remain firmly bearish until the monthly range lows are taken out. I will only reconsider this outlook if the price holds at a high-timeframe PDA and institutional order flow (IOF) signals a potential shift in direction.
TVC:DXYShort
by Pilucax
Weekly Watchlist & Market Outlook (#1)Welcome back, guys! I’m Skeptic , and today, I’m breaking down my weekly watchlist with key market setups. Having a structured plan before the trading week starts helps you stay mentally prepared, avoid impulsive trades, and stick to your strategy. So, let’s dive in! 1. XAUUSD (Gold) 🟡 Daily TF: Gold has maintained a strong major uptrend and recently completed a price correction to 2842.15 (36% Fib) before resuming its upward movement. This signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend. Trigger (Daily): Break above 2954.24 🔼 4H TF: Price is currently in a range between 2896 (support) and 2927 (resistance). Long trigger:Breakout above 2927 Short trigger: Below 2896 (although trading in the trend’s direction is recommended for better R/R). 2. EURJPY 💶 Daily TF: The pair is ranging between 155.551 (support) and 161.166 (resistance). 4H TF: Long trigger: Breakout above 161.166 📈 (RSI entering overbought territory could add confluence). Short trigger: Break below 159.291 targeting the range’s bottom. 3. GBPAU D Daily TF: The key resistance at 2.02396 has been broken, signaling a new uptrend. 4H TF: Long trigger: Breakout above 2.05139 🔼 for trend continuation. Short trigger: If 2.02396 fails as support (fake breakout), look for lower TF confirmation. 4. GBPNZD Daily TF: Similar to GBPAUD, 2.23992 resistance has been broken, and price has pulled back. 4H TF: Long trigger: Breakout above 2.26565 📈 for continuation. Short trigger: If 2.23992 fails (fake breakout scenario). 5. AUDNZD Daily TF: A strong uptrend was recently broken, potentially signaling a price correction. 4H TF: Short trigger: Break below 1.10115 🔻 (sign of further downside). Long trigger: If price reclaims the broken trendline, indicating a fake breakdown. Final Thoughts 💡 Thanks for following this week’s watchlist! If you have specific pairs or assets you’d like me to analyze, drop them in the comments. Growing alone may be fast, but in the long run, teamwork wins. Let’s grow together. ❤️
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
1
DXY Potential Reversal from Key Support | Buy SetupThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, signaling a potential bearish trend. After breaking the neckline, DXY has dropped significantly and is now approaching a major demand zone (103.50-104.00), where buying pressure could emerge. Key levels to watch: Support Zones: 103.50 - 104.00 (Strong demand area) Resistance Zones: 105.50 - 106.50 (Previous support turned resistance) Trade Idea: Entry: Around 103.50 - 104.00 Target: 106.00 - 106.50 Stop Loss: Below 103.00 (to avoid further downside risk) Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:3 Impact on Forex Pairs: If DXY moves up, currency pairs with USD as the base currency (e.g., USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF) will likely move higher. On the other hand, pairs where USD is the quote currency (e.g., EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD) will likely move lower as the dollar strengthens. Conclusion: If price holds at the 103.50-104.00 support, we may see a short-term bullish move towards 106.00-106.50. However, a break below 103.00 could lead to further downside pressure. Traders should also monitor major USD pairs for potential trade opportunities.
TVC:DXYLong
by ayushpanchal92
DOLLAR DXYImpact of Tomorrow's Data on DXY and USD Trade Directional Bias The upcoming data releases, including Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and speeches by FOMC members, can significantly influence DXY and DXYtrade directional bias. Here's how these data points might impact the markets: Data Releases: Average Hourly Earnings (m/m): Forecast: 0.3% Previous: 0.5% Impact: Lower-than-expected earnings growth could suggest a slowing economy, potentially weakening the USD. Conversely, higher earnings could support the USD by indicating wage inflation and potentially leading to higher interest rates. Non-Farm Employment Change: Forecast: 159,000 Previous: 143,000 Impact: A stronger-than-expected jobs report could boost the USD by indicating economic resilience. A weaker report might lead to a decline in the USD as it could signal economic slowdown. Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.0% Previous: 4.0% Impact: No change in the unemployment rate is expected, but any deviation could influence market expectations of future monetary policy. FOMC Member Speeches: Impact: Comments from FOMC members can provide insights into future monetary policy decisions, influencing market expectations and potentially impacting the USD. Consumer Credit m/m: Forecast: $15.6 billion Previous: $40.8 billion Impact: A significant change in consumer credit could reflect consumer spending trends and economic health, potentially influencing the USD. Departments Responsible for Data Releases: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Responsible for releasing employment data, including Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. Federal Reserve: FOMC members' speeches are part of the Federal Reserve's communication strategy. Federal Reserve: Also responsible for Consumer Credit data. BLS: Average Hourly Earnings data is also released by the BLS. Impact on EUR/USD: Strong US Data: If the employment data and earnings growth are stronger than expected, it could lead to a stronger USD, potentially weakening AUDUSD,USDJPY,GBPUSD,USDZAR,USDCAD,EURUSD Weak US Data: Conversely, weaker-than-expected data might lead to a decline in the USD, supporting EUR/USD,AUDUSD,USDJPY,GBPUSD, Trading Strategy: Short EUR/USD.AUDUSD,GBPUSD ,: If US data is strong and FOMC members signal a hawkish stance, Long EUR/USD,AUDUSD EURUSD: If US data is weak .
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
Investors Brace for US CPI Inflation Data Amid Increasing Trade Market participants will closely monitor February’s CPI inflation report (Consumer Price Index), scheduled to be released tomorrow at 12:30 pm GMT. The consensus anticipates that headline and core metrics will demonstrate signs of cooling. Economists anticipate that year-on-year CPI inflation has eased to 2.9% (down from 3.0% in January) and that core inflation has cooled to 3.2% (from 3.3% in January). Between January and February, month-on-month headline inflation is expected to have slowed to 0.3% (down from 0.5%), with the core reading also forecast to cool to 0.3% (from 0.4%). Most will probably agree that US President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs is challenging to keep track of, and the uncertainty is impacting risk assets. Last Tuesday, the US administration imposed levies on three of America’s largest trading partners: Canada, Mexico, and China, only to see some goods exempted the following day (for one month), with additional items added to the exempted list on Thursday of the same week. During an interview with Fox News on Sunday, uncertainty mounted when Trump sidestepped whether he was expecting a recession this year, stating ‘he hates to predict things like that’ and adding that there would be a ‘period of transition’. As a result of tariffs enforced in February, this week’s CPI inflation release could be a turning point. Although tariffs did not take effect in February (except for China), given the 30-day reprieve, businesses have been preparing to bear tariffs by raising prices. Both the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing and services PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes) showed that the prices paid sub-indexes pushed higher. While the ISM manufacturing index dropped to 50.3 from January’s reading of 50.9 – along with the employment and new orders indexes dipping into contractionary territory to 47.6 and 48.6, respectively – the prices paid index surged to the upside, coming in at 62.4 from 54.9 in January. If this week’s report indicates rising price pressures, I believe this presents a noteworthy upside risk to inflation, potentially influencing rate pricing, which may result in a bid in US Treasury yields and the US dollar (USD). Fed Unlikely to Move Based on February’s CPI Print Should data report as expected, although this would mark signs of cooling inflation, it provides the US Federal Reserve (Fed) with little incentive to begin easing policy at this juncture given the current uncertainty ahead. According to market pricing, this month’s meeting (19 March) will unlikely see any rate adjustment; investors currently have their eye on June’s meeting for the next 25 basis point (bp) cut (-34 bps). As a note, Fed speak will be limited until the next meeting as the central bank limits the extent to which Fed officials speak publicly – known as the ‘blackout period’. Nevertheless, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made the headlines on Friday. Speaking at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Monetary Policy Forum in New York, Powell reiterated that the Fed is not in a rush to cut rates, commenting: ‘Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate’. Precipitous USD Decline As per the US Dollar Index, the USD is down nearly 4% this month, and, according to the monthly chart, sellers could strengthen their grip at least until reaching the 50-month simple moving average at 101.72. A similar picture is seen on the daily chart following the breach of support from 103.94 (now marked resistance); an absence of support is reasonably clear until 101.92, levels not seen since October 2024. So, given the lack of support on the bigger picture, any pullbacks will likely be sold into until price action reaches possible support between 101.72 and 101.92. Lower-than-expected data, of course, would likely support USD downside and see investors increase rate cut bets, though should data surprise to the upside, this could see an unwind in short positions (note that positioning is also relatively overstretched to the downside) as traders seek mean-reversion strategies. On the other hand, although a short-term burst to the upside could be seen, this may be tricky as an increase in price pressures could also stimulate stagflation concerns. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
TVC:DXYShort
by FPMarkets
DXY (Dollar Index) Ready to BUY? | Monthly FVG in Focus! 💰 Smart Money Preparing for a Bullish Move on DXY! The US Dollar Index (DXY) is approaching a key Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG), which could act as a strong demand zone. If price reaches this level, we will look for confirmation on lower timeframes (H4/M15) before entering buys. 🔍 Why is this Important? ✅ Monthly FVG as a High-Probability Buy Zone ✅ Institutional Order Flow Aligning for a Bullish Reversal ✅ Strong Demand Expected at FVG ✅ DXY Strength = Bearish Pressure on Gold & Majors 📊 Key Market Levels: 🔹 Monthly FVG Buy Zone: 🔹 First Target: 🔹 Breakout Confirmation Above: 🔹 Invalidation Below: ⚡ Trading Plan: 📌 Wait for price to reach the Monthly FVG 📌 Look for Bullish Confirmation on H4/M15 (BOS, CHoCH, Liquidity Grab) 📌 Enter Buys Once Institutional Reversal is Confirmed 📌 Manage Risk – Watch CPI & FOMC Events 💥 Stronger DXY = Weak Gold & Bearish Pressure on Majors! 💬 Are you buying DXY at the Monthly FVG? Drop your thoughts below! 👇 #DXY #DollarIndex #Forex #SmartMoney #ICT #SMC #Liquidity #TradingView #OrderFlow
TVC:DXYLong
by twb1122
Will the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Report Be Optimistic?At 8:30 AM EST today, the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be released, offering key insights into the U.S. labor market. This report will cover Average Hourly Earnings, Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate, helping investors and policymakers assess the economy’s current state. Let’s break down the expectations and potential impacts. What to Expect from the NFP Report? The U.S. economy is expected to have added 160,000 jobs in February 2025, improving from January’s 143,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4%, signaling stability in the job market. However, wage growth is expected to slow, rising 0.3% month-over-month, compared to January’s 0.5%, the highest since August 2024. On an annual basis, wage growth is forecasted to hold at 4.1%. Despite these stable projections, economic uncertainty is increasing. The election initially brought optimism among investors and major corporations, with hopes that the new government would introduce tax cuts, balance inflation with policy rates, and create an environment conducive to business expansion and job growth. However, the current situation presents a different picture. Unpredictable tariffs, frequent policy shifts, and regulatory scrutiny on functioning organizations are shaking investor confidence. The U.S. dollar is experiencing a decline as uncertainty continues to grow. Trade Policies and Market Uncertainty Concerns over President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are adding to economic instability, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar since the new president officially took office on January 20. Investors are growing wary, as shifting policies create an unpredictable business environment. A recent decision to temporarily exempt Canadian and Mexican goods under the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) from newly imposed 25% tariffs has added another layer of uncertainty. These tariffs, which took effect earlier this week, are raising concerns about their potential impact on economic growth and global trade. Looking Ahead The NFP report will play a crucial role in determining market sentiment and economic direction. Investors, businesses, and policymakers will closely analyze the data to assess the labor market’s strength and the broader economic outlook. With ongoing policy changes and global trade uncertainties, all eyes are on how employment trends unfold and how businesses navigate the shifting economic landscape. Stay tuned for further updates as the data is released.
TVC:DXY
by AfaqKhan111