DXY 03/03/2025Weekly Bias looking for shorts. Maybe see some support from this Daily BISI to push further into that Volume imbalance with the daily mitigation block. Then a sell off into Monthly BISI
DXY trade ideas
DXY Shorts March 2025DXY's Trump rally seems to have run out of juice with Tarif wars ad uncertainty. Looking major sellside to be taken in the future. At the moment favouring a retracement into Equilibrium of range into monthly buyside-imbalance sellside-inefficiency. Latets CoT Report shows a start to the selling from non-commercial entities.
DXY BULLISH BIAS|LONG|
✅DXY is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 106.000
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target at 108.600
LONG🚀
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possibility of uptrendIt is expected that after some fluctuation, the upward trend will continue and will advance to the specified resistance levels.
Otherwise, the correction trend will continue to the support range.
DXYDXY Index
This Analysis is based on these Factors :
1 Support / Resistance
2 Falling Wedge
3 Elliot Waves
4 RSI - Divergence
5 Change of Characteristics
DOLLAR I Weekly CLS, OB, Model 1, 50% pullback possibleDOLLAR I Weekly CLS, OB, Model 1, 50% pullback possible
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DXY Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is trading in an uptrend
And the index is already making
A bullish rebound from the
Rising support line so we are
Bullish biased and we will be
Expecting a further bullish
Reaction and move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
DXYDXY Analysis:
- Break of structure to the Upside after taking out sellside Liquidity.
- Price Displaced higher, while we are expecting it to retrace into a discount area (0.618 fib)
- This could be a potential buying opportunity aiming for range high.
DXY|LONG SETUPHello, I hope you have a great week ahead. This is my outlook for the Dollar Index, and please feel free to leave your comments and share your own perspective with me.
Initially, on the lower timeframes, I expect a rise to the 108.570 level and a potential breakout into this resistance zone. Afterward, I anticipate a drop to 105.888, which could mark the start of a sharp upward trend from this level. This is just my analysis, not a signal.
DXY -DOLLAR INDEX BIASDollar is very strong and is rallying up, lets see if it can align with our set up on the third touch of the trend line for high sell opportunity on dollar related pairs.
"Bearish Pressure on DXY: Key Levels to Watch"🔹 Technical Analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - 4H Chart
▪️Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
- The chart shows a clear downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), with a series of lower highs and lower lows.
- The price is trading below the 200-period moving average (blue line) and 50-period moving average (red line), reinforcing bearish sentiment.
🔹Key Levels:
1. Strong Resistance Area ( 107.300 - 107.400)
- This is a significant supply zone where sellers have aggressively pushed the price down in the past.
- The price recently tested this area and failed to break higher, indicating strong resistance.
2. Resistance Level for Further Downside ( 106.700 - 106.800)
- The price is struggling to stay above this level, which has now become a short-term resistance zone.
- If price stays below this level, further downside is likely.
3. Target Area ( 105.453)
- This is the next major support level, where price could find buying interest and potentially reverse or consolidate.
▪️Market Expectation:
- Bearish Continuation:
- If price remains below the 106.700 resistance level, it is likely to continue downward towards the 105.453 target zone.
- Invalidation of Bearish Bias:
- If price breaks and closes above 107.400, it could signal a trend reversal or deeper retracement.
🔹Conclusion:
- Bias: Bearish
- Trading Plan: Look for sell opportunities below resistance zones and target 105.453 for a potential move lower.
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DXY to Retest $108 - Slight Pain May Lay AheadDXY fractal from 2017 is playing out nicely.
Looks like it will retest $108 mid-March and break $106 in early April (hopefully before).
This lines up perfectly with the Global M2 (12-Week Lead) liquidity injection.
DXY BUY SETUPPrice is coming off an overall monthly retest with a DAILY choch and a DAILY choch retest to continue up towards 114 price point.
DXY update#DXY made a wedge at the end of its pattern this can make a rise as we have a bearish pettern in EURUSD too i think that this rising can go to the fibo level 62% anyway REMEMBER THAT THE WHOLE PATTERN IS STILL BEARISH !
DXY Trade Idea - Bullish Bias### **📈 DXY Trade Idea - Bullish Bias 🚀**
**🔍 Market Outlook:**
I am now considering **DXY bullish** due to multiple confluences aligning with **ICT & SMC** principles:
✅ **Break of Structure (BOS):** DXY closed above a short-term high, confirming bullish intent. 📊
✅ **Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG):** A strong bullish FVG has formed, acting as a potential support zone. 📉➡️📈
✅ **Unicorn Model + Breaker Block:** ICT structural setup aligns with smart money movements. 🦄📦
✅ **SMC Confirmation:** Price action is in sync with **Smart Money Concepts**, suggesting institutional participation. 🏦💰
### **📌 Trade Plan:**
🔹 **Entry:** Wait for a retracement into the **bullish FVG** or **breaker block** for a high-probability entry. 🎯
🔹 **Stop Loss:** Below the recent **swing low** or the invalidation level. 🚨
🔹 **Take Profit:** Target **liquidity above** the next significant high. 🎯💵
🔹 **Extra Confirmation:** Look for **BOS on lower timeframes (LTF)** and **bullish order flow** before executing. 🔄🔍
Would you like me to add a chart analysis or refine the execution details further? 📊📉📈
Dollar Index - End of January AnalysisJune 2022 was the last time we witnessed a major bullish run reaching into macro imbalances @ 110.
Donald Trump was elected in November 2024 and ever since, we have witnessed a similar run, in which Dollar punished those who were short based on market trend and sentiment at the time.
Many long term traders saw 106 as ‘safe’ price point to place their buystops but the market had other plans… As the algorithm repriced higher upto 106, it became a self fulfilling prophecy where more buy stops were triggered increasing the likelihood of a low resistance liquidity run.
Highs for the month is 110.176
Lows for the month is 107.969
Bearish bias negated if I see a candle body closure above the monthly highs and CE of 6 month sellside imbalance.
DXY's Plan for the week For the week:
No news monday, anticipating an accumulation phase below the daily gap formed on last Friday.
Tuesday 10:00 am brings the first possible liquidity into the market. I'm waiting for an upside manipulation into the daily fair value gap.
Wednesday may hang around for a little (no news), but the distribution phase can start after price displaced out of the daily gap.
Overall i'm targeting the monthly gap.
Ok be safe byyyyyyyy
DXY is headed for a Super-cycle TVC:DXY is headed for an e Supercycle that will rival what BTC has gone on over the past 5 years. USDXY’s chart from 1985 to today is the exact same pattern in BTC from 2016 to 2020 with a long double bottom a breakout retest and now the explosive impulsive move upward is left for DXY. The bull flag looks very strong on the chart and considering the length of the consolidation pattern the explosiveness to the upside could be like nothing this asset has ever seen before. As for how I'm actually playing this, I have positioned myself with heavy calls on AMEX:UUP that is the Dollar bull fund and mirrors dxy.
the importance of the liquidation of 106,269 is important beforeThe liquidation of 106,269 is important to walk it before increasing. so we will hope for a drop in the weekly demand zone before any prospect of an increase
US Dollar Index From a Technician’s Point of ViewBuyers and Sellers Squaring Off Between Monthly Support and Resistance
Monthly resistance from 109.33 was a technical headwind I monitored on the US Dollar Index for a while, and so far, it has not disappointed me. The said resistance welcomed moderate selling in February, and although the combination of the 107.35 high (October 2023) and 106.52 high (April 2024) could offer monthly support (see two red arrows), I am also watching the ‘local’ descending monthly support as a potential downside objective, taken from the noted high of 107.35.
Daily AB=CD Support Holds Firm
Meanwhile, price action on the daily timeframe reveals the Index rebounded from an area made up of ‘AB=CD support’ between the 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio at 105.77 and a 100% projection ratio of 106.65. It is common for AB=CD traders to target the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios that are derived from legs A-D, which, in this case, rest at 107.70 and 108.64, respectively. You may also note that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio shares chart space closely with resistance from 107.77. In addition, short-term flow on the H1 timeframe witnessed price rebound from support at 107.24 and shake hands with resistance at 107.61, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio that unites with trendline support-turned-resistance, taken from the low of 106.57.
Daily/H1 Resistances in Focus
Given possible monthly support in play from between 106.52 and 107.35, together with daily price manoeuvring from AB=CD support at 105.77-106.65 to within striking distance of resistance at 107.77 and H1 price connecting with resistance around 107.61, this is a thorny market to trade right now and hinges on how price behaves at the aforementioned daily/H1 resistances. Engulfing the noted resistances unearths a possible bullish scenario to the 50-day simple moving average at 108.00, followed by a potential move towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 108.64 on the daily chart. On the other hand, should bears take control of the current resistances, I would look for the unit to retest (and eventually consume) H1 support at 107.24 to potentially target H1 support at 106.75 (located just north of the daily AB=CD support zone).
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Short Dolla Long BTCWe'll see
things haven't been great but it also feels like there's a lot of fear and uncertainty right now
Daily Market Outlook: BTC, DXY & Gold Analysis (#8)The market has been highly reactive following yesterday’s GDP and Unemployment Claims report. The DXY strengthened sharply, reaching a key resistance at 107.474. Previously, this level acted as a strong support and has now turned into a major resistance zone.
DXY Analysis
We need to consider multiple scenarios for the dollar index:
Most Likely Scenario: If DXY gets rejected from 107.474, we can look for short positions below 107.063, anticipating a continuation of the secondary downtrend in the daily timeframe.
Alternative Scenario: If DXY breaks above 107.474, it could continue strengthening toward 107.767, confirming that the correction is over and resuming the major uptrend.
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis
Gold dropped below 2878.87, entering a price correction phase. Key support levels to watch:
2841.25 (Fib 50%)
2811
2790 (Strong demand zone)
Short Position Plan (1H Timeframe)
If gold finds support at 2855 (35% Fib), and later breaks it, a short entry could be considered.
If the drop continues, the next major short opportunity is at 2841.89 in the 4H timeframe.
Long Position Plan
A confirmed breakout above 2879.26 will indicate strength, making it a valid long entry point.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis
BTC has been experiencing significant downside pressure, aligning with the February 26 analysis where I highlighted the potential for a price correction within its major uptrend.
As mentioned earlier, losing 80-82K support would shift the market bias to bearish, favoring short positions. If you shorted BTC from 85K, this could be a great area to secure profits.
Currently, BTC lacks a clear structure, so I’m waiting for more confirmation before taking new positions.
What’s Next for BTC?
If BTC closes below 80K, we will need to reassess the market structure and update our strategy accordingly.
If BTC holds above this level, there is still a chance for a recovery and potential upside continuation.
However, if 80K is lost, the recovery process could take much longer than expected.
Final Thoughts
Stay patient and wait for clear market structures before entering trades. If you’re already in positions, manage them carefully based on these levels.
I’m Skeptic , and I’m grateful to be on this journey with you all. Trading is tough, but growing together makes it worthwhile. Stay profitable and see you tomorrow! 🚀💡
