check the trendIf a trend change occurs within the current support level, the beginning of an upward trend will be likely. Otherwise, the continuation of the downtrend is possible.by STPFOREX0
DXY March 4 London 2 Marco backtesting the session reactionsDXY March 4 London 2 Marco backtesting the session reactions Price came down took sell side liquidity and rebalanced 15M FVG in Asia. Price came up to the range CE and 50 level and rejected. Price had clear targets of sell side liquidity. Price was weaving in a wick imbalance. Price At 2 macro Price comes up to the .70 OTE level and into a first presented FVG. Price is so heavy and should be obvious that it is a bear market. Note- Price did not want to retrace to the previuos range however in backtesting just to the 50 on the RB 50. If truely in a bear market this is a indicator. Touches the 50 and rejects-it should. Price came through the volume imbalance Price came through 3 sell stops I had noted. Price came down to ICT's FVG she noted 3 weeks ago. Price is respecting the session 50 level. All great learning. Very messy chart and it for studyby LeanLena0
DXY roadmapMy predicted roadmap Wave down in bull flag. Up (GFC flow to cash) then down for real. Not financial advice. Shortby mypostsareNotFinancialAdvice2
DXY Sellside LiquidityWatchout for the sellside liquidity below 105.827 price level for the DXYby Talizmanic1
DXY SKYROCKETSDXY has swept old lows and taken out resting liquidity below. I expect a retracement back to the premium of the range prior to the NFP news coming up.by StylezFX1
DXY Long-Term Analysis (1988-2024): Post-US Election Price CycleBased on a 36-year historical analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a clear cyclical pattern emerges in relation to U.S. election cycles. Key Observations: Election Year Impact: After every U.S. election, DXY tends to move in one clear direction (either bullish or bearish) for the first 1 to 2 years. Reversal Phase: Following this initial move, the next 1 to 2 years typically see a reversal, where the price trends in the opposite direction of the first phase. Consistent Historical Trend: This pattern has repeated consistently across multiple election cycles since 1988, making it a significant factor to consider when analyzing DXY’s medium-term trends. Practical Implications: If the post-election trend is bullish for the first 1-2 years, traders should anticipate a potential bearish shift in the following 1-2 years—and vice versa. This can be used as a macroeconomic roadmap to align trading strategies with historical probabilities. Exception: 1996-2000 – Why It Did Not Follow the Seasonal Pattern The 1996 to 2000 period is the only major exception in this 36-year analysis. Instead of following the typical 1-2 year trend-reversal pattern, DXY remained bullish throughout the entire Clinton second term (1996-2000). Here’s why this period did not comply with our seasonal analysis: Unprecedented U.S. Economic Strength ("Clinton Boom") The late 1990s saw an extraordinarily strong economy, driven by the Dot-Com Boom, technological advancements, and record corporate profits. Unlike other election cycles where economic slowdowns or policy shifts led to reversals, the U.S. economy kept accelerating, keeping the USD strong. Federal Reserve’s Tight Monetary Policy (Rising Interest Rates) From 1997 to 2000, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to control inflation. Higher rates made the USD more attractive, increasing foreign capital inflows and preventing a mid-term reversal. Global Financial Crises (1997 Asian Crisis & 1998 Russian Default) These crises caused global capital flight to the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset. Instead of a seasonal decline in DXY, the USD kept rising as investors sought stability in U.S. assets. Foreign Investment in U.S. Markets (Tech Stock Bubble) Foreign investors poured money into U.S. stocks and bonds, increasing demand for USD. This prolonged DXY’s bullish trend, overriding the usual election-based trend reversals. Conclusion: The DXY's movement post-elections follows a structured two-phase cycle: initial directional trend (1-2 years) → reversal phase (1-2 years). So you guys can plan your trades accordingly and take advantage of this repeating pattern to maximize profitability.by MAAwan0
DXY : 3/3/25 - 7/3/251. Bias: Dollar Strength 2. Expecting price to pullback into 107.388 for further Dollar strength 3. 106.759 (worst scenario for short-term dollar weakness), if price tap into this price, high probability for dollar to gain strength from here. Longby terencejongUpdated 114
BULLISH ON DXYLooking for a deep retracement as we expect high impact news to pump usd/dollar index prices upby jagabunfx0
ECB rate cut and NFPs await the DXYThe DXY dropped to fresh yearly lows at 106.13 since my previous idea which does not bode well for my string of ideas calling for the DXY to break above 110.16. The DXY however managed to climb back above the blue support range between 107.12 and 107.50 at the back end of last week off the back of a stronger than expected durable goods orders m-o-m print of 3.1% while the 4Q2024 GDP print and the m-o-m Core PCE price index landed in line with expectations at 2.3% and 0.3%, respectively. The headlining events for this week is the ECB interest rate meeting and the NFPs for February. Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates from 2.9% to 2.65%. The ECB has held a more dovish stance than the Fed since the rate cutting cycle began and if it’s more of the same on Thursday, I expect the DXY to find strong footing which will allow it to re-test the 50-day MA at 107.98. Most of the focus will however be on the US non-farm payroll print for February. The NFPs print for January came in slightly lower than expected and another weak print on Friday will have investors question the validity of Powell’s statement that the US economy is strong and that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, which I expect will be dollar negative. A strong print however will allow the DXY to hold levels above the 50-day MA and test levels closer to the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 108.97. Longby Goose961
FIBS TREND EXTENTIONS RULES: -If price break Point 2, 4, 6, or 8 cancel the setup -Price needs to break Point 1, 3, 5, or 7 to confirm the setup When price reach the 100FE(BLUE BOX) it normally does a pullback/retest or reversal The market can Truncate(fall short)Longby jdunn3211
BULLISH forecast on DXYWeekly chart is showing a strong bullish candle, anticipating continuation move. 4h showing potential internal range liquidity to external range liquidity moveLongby Paul_FRX111
DXY Trading Journal March 2 Previous week in reviewDXY Trading Journal March 2 Previous week in review Price had a up closed candle on the weekly taking out previous weeks buy/sell stops. Monday price takes out previous weeks sell stops and from Dec and closes with a up closed candle. Tuesday Price raliies to take the buy stops from Monday and aggressively lowers. Wednesday opens to take Tuesdays lows and then rallies to the high side and creates equal lows. Thursday opens with a volume unbalance and takes buy stops and rebalances the FVG created from the previous Thursday, i also note a large range day. Friday Price energetically rallies to take the equal highs with the body of the candle coming to the CE of the SIBI its rebalancing. Price started the week in a discount on the .79 breaking lower at the start of the week to then seek higher prices. by LeanLena0
DXY update#DXY made a rise as i told you before the descending wedge made a price rise and we have 2 levels as the target based on fibo levels Longby stratus_co4
Short AUDUSD The Perfect Storm: Stagflation, GeopoliticsIn a world increasingly defined by geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty, a perfect storm is brewing, casting a long shadow over the Australian dollar. The confluence of persistent stagflationary pressures, escalating trade tensions, and a resurgent U.S. dollar is creating a formidable headwind for the AUDUSD pair. This article delves into the intricate web of factors driving this bearish sentiment, offering a comprehensive analysis for macro traders and financial viewers seeking clarity amidst market turbulence. The Stagflationary Grip: A Global Economic Quagmire The global economic landscape is ensnared in a precarious dance between "sticky" inflation and a palpable slowdown. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) remains stubbornly elevated, while Producer Price Index (PPI) figures signal continued upward pressure on consumer prices. This persistent inflation, coupled with a weakening housing market, declining consumer confidence, and a sharp contraction in global trade activity (as evidenced by the plummeting Shanghai and China Containerized Freight Indices), paints a stark picture of a "Stagflationary Weakness." www.census.gov The Federal Reserve finds itself trapped between a rock and a hard place, grappling with the unenviable task of taming inflation while averting a looming recession. Policy missteps are increasingly probable, further amplifying market anxieties. Geopolitical Fault Lines and Trade Wars: Fueling the Fire Adding to the economic woes are escalating geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. The contentious US-Ukraine situation, heightened US-China strategic competition (including technology decoupling and potential military tensions in the South China Sea), and the ever-present threat of cyberattacks are creating an environment of heightened risk aversion. President Trump's aggressive tariff policies, targeting Canada, Mexico, and China, have ignited fears of retaliatory measures and further disruptions to global trade flows. The market's reaction has been swift and decisive, with the S&P 500 experiencing consecutive weekly declines, reflecting growing investor unease. The AUDUSD Under Siege: A Technical and Fundamental Breakdown Against this backdrop, the AUDUSD pair is experiencing a decisive bearish breakdown. The U.S. dollar (DXY), fueled by its safe-haven appeal and the prevailing risk-off sentiment, is exhibiting robust strength, targeting 109.900. This dollar resurgence is exerting significant downward pressure on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. Gaining Traction Amidst Global Uncertainty The AUDUSD has decisively breached the critical 0.64000 level, signaling a clear shift in market sentiment. While rising commodity prices, particularly in energy, have historically provided support for the AUD, the current environment is unique. Geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties are overshadowing the positive impact of rising commodity prices. Technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), confirm the bearish momentum. The 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are all trending downwards, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Key Support Zone and Outlook: We have identified a key support zone between 0.61435 and 0.60838. This zone represents a potential area of consolidation or a temporary pause in the downtrend. However, given the strong bearish momentum and the prevailing fundamental factors, we anticipate a continued downward trajectory. Impact of Strong Dollar and Risk Aversion" Traders should closely monitor the DXY and global risk sentiment for further confirmation of the bearish trend. Any sustained break of the 0.64000 level would confirm the current outlook. The AUDUSD pair is currently navigating a perfect storm of stagflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and a resurgent U.S. dollar. This confluence of factors has created a compelling bearish outlook, with technical indicators and fundamental analysis aligning to support continued downward momentum. In this environment, vigilance and a deep understanding of the global macroeconomic landscape are paramount. Traders must remain attuned to the evolving geopolitical and economic narratives, adapting their strategies to navigate the turbulent waters of the current market. FX:AUDUSD CAPITALCOM:DXY Shortby TyrusLUpdated 0
Dollar index carving out the trangleLooks like the dollar is carving out the D wave of the triangle for the 4th wave of C . Looking for a target of 113+ when the triangle completes. Longby mrenigma1
Bearish then bullish I think open on Sunday, the USD Will bearish And then it’s probably gonna be bullish Longby christiansmithtrades2
DXY Phantom Strength.While I'm making this analysis Public, its purpose is really just a 'fun' project for myself to take a look back over time to see how (if) accurate it turns out to be. what does the DXY yrTF 'tell' me? 1) the CCi has been making strong bullish moves (+100) away from the average price... while price has been printing LH's. 2) 2007 has been the only year (since 1980) with a CCi -100 Bear Push (& only just) & price printed a LL! In other words, attempts of strength by the DXY results in an actual show of Weakness (LH's)? While this has been sustained over decades, in my mind... DXY 'strength' DOES NOT RING TRUE. 3) While 2022 broke above the last LH of 16/17 (Off the HL of 2020...creating an up trend?)... yearly price has not closed above the 16/17 LH. 4) AND Price is still inside the 01/08 Bear Push Range. REMEMBERING This is a Yearly Time Frame and therefore a VERY long term analysis, it seems to me the DXY is ultimately going to Dump. 5) Short Term However, I think a move to the yrWkZ of 2002 is still possible, if not likely. $115.00 ish. Shortby EverGlowTrading4
BEARISH DOLLARAfter a sweep of Buyside liquidity on the dollar. I expect a reteacement back into the range to an internal range liquidity. In this case, there is a Buyside imbalance-Sell side inefficiency below. by StylezFX1
The DXY maintains its bullish stance, The DXY maintains its bullish stance, reinforcing dollar strength as a wedge market structure develops. With mitigation around the 105.600s, the pattern suggests a continued push toward the 109.000s. As the Gold market declines .Traders should monitor key levels for confirmation of sustained momentum follow for more insights , comment , and boost idea . Longby Ak_capitalist4
STRONG DXY Over the Next 12 - 24 months? With Donald Trumps Tariffs will we see the DXY retest all time highs $132 - $150? Longby solocapital20302
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 107.09 1st Support: 106.64 1st Resistance: 108.04 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.Longby ICmarkets2210
DXYA good opportunity to go long and make good money. VHT YOUR MENTOR SIGNING OUTLongby Victor_Hunter_Turner2
DXY is ready to fall againI think this sell will be swift. I analyse DXY just to cause it relates to all others. By this I mean EURUSD AND GBPUSD will buy. My only reserve is the 107.38 region but I dont think it will reach there. I've entered now. I will enter again if it reaches there. Overall, the trend has turned bearish. I will post other charts soon. Follow me cause my trades are market orders, so you will be able to see them on time and enter on time Shortby UGBOR111131