BULLISH ON DXYLooking for a deep retracement as we expect high impact news to pump usd/dollar index prices up
DXY trade ideas
ECB rate cut and NFPs await the DXYThe DXY dropped to fresh yearly lows at 106.13 since my previous idea which does not bode well for my string of ideas calling for the DXY to break above 110.16. The DXY however managed to climb back above the blue support range between 107.12 and 107.50 at the back end of last week off the back of a stronger than expected durable goods orders m-o-m print of 3.1% while the 4Q2024 GDP print and the m-o-m Core PCE price index landed in line with expectations at 2.3% and 0.3%, respectively.
The headlining events for this week is the ECB interest rate meeting and the NFPs for February. Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates from 2.9% to 2.65%. The ECB has held a more dovish stance than the Fed since the rate cutting cycle began and if it’s more of the same on Thursday, I expect the DXY to find strong footing which will allow it to re-test the 50-day MA at 107.98. Most of the focus will however be on the US non-farm payroll print for February.
The NFPs print for January came in slightly lower than expected and another weak print on Friday will have investors question the validity of Powell’s statement that the US economy is strong and that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, which I expect will be dollar negative. A strong print however will allow the DXY to hold levels above the 50-day MA and test levels closer to the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 108.97.
DXYDXY Analysis:
- Break of structure to the Upside after taking out sellside Liquidity.
- Price Displaced higher, while we are expecting it to retrace into a discount area (0.618 fib)
- This could be a potential buying opportunity aiming for range high.
BULLISH forecast on DXYWeekly chart is showing a strong bullish candle, anticipating continuation move.
4h showing potential internal range liquidity to external range liquidity move
DXY Trading Journal March 2 Previous week in reviewDXY Trading Journal
March 2 Previous week in review
Price had a up closed candle on the weekly taking out previous weeks buy/sell stops.
Monday price takes out previous weeks sell stops and from Dec and closes with a up closed candle.
Tuesday Price raliies to take the buy stops from Monday and aggressively lowers.
Wednesday opens to take Tuesdays lows and then rallies to the high side and creates equal lows.
Thursday opens with a volume unbalance and takes buy stops and rebalances the FVG created from the previous Thursday, i also note a large range day.
Friday Price energetically rallies to take the equal highs with the body of the candle coming to the CE of the SIBI its rebalancing.
Price started the week in a discount on the .79 breaking lower at the start of the week to then seek higher prices.
DXY update#DXY made a rise as i told you before the descending wedge made a price rise and we have 2 levels as the target based on fibo levels
Short AUDUSD The Perfect Storm: Stagflation, GeopoliticsIn a world increasingly defined by geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty, a perfect storm is brewing, casting a long shadow over the Australian dollar. The confluence of persistent stagflationary pressures, escalating trade tensions, and a resurgent U.S. dollar is creating a formidable headwind for the AUDUSD pair. This article delves into the intricate web of factors driving this bearish sentiment, offering a comprehensive analysis for macro traders and financial viewers seeking clarity amidst market turbulence.
The Stagflationary Grip: A Global Economic Quagmire
The global economic landscape is ensnared in a precarious dance between "sticky" inflation and a palpable slowdown. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) remains stubbornly elevated, while Producer Price Index (PPI) figures signal continued upward pressure on consumer prices. This persistent inflation, coupled with a weakening housing market, declining consumer confidence, and a sharp contraction in global trade activity (as evidenced by the plummeting Shanghai and China Containerized Freight Indices), paints a stark picture of a "Stagflationary Weakness."
www.census.gov
The Federal Reserve finds itself trapped between a rock and a hard place, grappling with the unenviable task of taming inflation while averting a looming recession. Policy missteps are increasingly probable, further amplifying market anxieties.
Geopolitical Fault Lines and Trade Wars: Fueling the Fire
Adding to the economic woes are escalating geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. The contentious US-Ukraine situation, heightened US-China strategic competition (including technology decoupling and potential military tensions in the South China Sea), and the ever-present threat of cyberattacks are creating an environment of heightened risk aversion.
President Trump's aggressive tariff policies, targeting Canada, Mexico, and China, have ignited fears of retaliatory measures and further disruptions to global trade flows. The market's reaction has been swift and decisive, with the S&P 500 experiencing consecutive weekly declines, reflecting growing investor unease.
The AUDUSD Under Siege: A Technical and Fundamental Breakdown
Against this backdrop, the AUDUSD pair is experiencing a decisive bearish breakdown. The U.S. dollar (DXY), fueled by its safe-haven appeal and the prevailing risk-off sentiment, is exhibiting robust strength, targeting 109.900. This dollar resurgence is exerting significant downward pressure on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar.
Gaining Traction Amidst Global Uncertainty
The AUDUSD has decisively breached the critical 0.64000 level, signaling a clear shift in market sentiment. While rising commodity prices, particularly in energy, have historically provided support for the AUD, the current environment is unique. Geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties are overshadowing the positive impact of rising commodity prices.
Technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), confirm the bearish momentum. The 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are all trending downwards, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Key Support Zone and Outlook:
We have identified a key support zone between 0.61435 and 0.60838. This zone represents a potential area of consolidation or a temporary pause in the downtrend. However, given the strong bearish momentum and the prevailing fundamental factors, we anticipate a continued downward trajectory.
Impact of Strong Dollar and Risk Aversion"
Traders should closely monitor the DXY and global risk sentiment for further confirmation of the bearish trend. Any sustained break of the 0.64000 level would confirm the current outlook.
The AUDUSD pair is currently navigating a perfect storm of stagflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and a resurgent U.S. dollar. This confluence of factors has created a compelling bearish outlook, with technical indicators and fundamental analysis aligning to support continued downward momentum.
In this environment, vigilance and a deep understanding of the global macroeconomic landscape are paramount. Traders must remain attuned to the evolving geopolitical and economic narratives, adapting their strategies to navigate the turbulent waters of the current market. FX:AUDUSD CAPITALCOM:DXY
Dollar index carving out the trangleLooks like the dollar is carving out the D wave of the triangle for the 4th wave of C . Looking for a target of 113+ when the triangle completes.
DXY Trade Idea - Bullish Bias### **📈 DXY Trade Idea - Bullish Bias 🚀**
**🔍 Market Outlook:**
I am now considering **DXY bullish** due to multiple confluences aligning with **ICT & SMC** principles:
✅ **Break of Structure (BOS):** DXY closed above a short-term high, confirming bullish intent. 📊
✅ **Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG):** A strong bullish FVG has formed, acting as a potential support zone. 📉➡️📈
✅ **Unicorn Model + Breaker Block:** ICT structural setup aligns with smart money movements. 🦄📦
✅ **SMC Confirmation:** Price action is in sync with **Smart Money Concepts**, suggesting institutional participation. 🏦💰
### **📌 Trade Plan:**
🔹 **Entry:** Wait for a retracement into the **bullish FVG** or **breaker block** for a high-probability entry. 🎯
🔹 **Stop Loss:** Below the recent **swing low** or the invalidation level. 🚨
🔹 **Take Profit:** Target **liquidity above** the next significant high. 🎯💵
🔹 **Extra Confirmation:** Look for **BOS on lower timeframes (LTF)** and **bullish order flow** before executing. 🔄🔍
Would you like me to add a chart analysis or refine the execution details further? 📊📉📈
Dollar Index - End of January AnalysisJune 2022 was the last time we witnessed a major bullish run reaching into macro imbalances @ 110.
Donald Trump was elected in November 2024 and ever since, we have witnessed a similar run, in which Dollar punished those who were short based on market trend and sentiment at the time.
Many long term traders saw 106 as ‘safe’ price point to place their buystops but the market had other plans… As the algorithm repriced higher upto 106, it became a self fulfilling prophecy where more buy stops were triggered increasing the likelihood of a low resistance liquidity run.
Highs for the month is 110.176
Lows for the month is 107.969
Bearish bias negated if I see a candle body closure above the monthly highs and CE of 6 month sellside imbalance.
the importance of the liquidation of 106,269 is important beforeThe liquidation of 106,269 is important to walk it before increasing. so we will hope for a drop in the weekly demand zone before any prospect of an increase
"Bearish Pressure on DXY: Key Levels to Watch"🔹 Technical Analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) - 4H Chart
▪️Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
- The chart shows a clear downtrend in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), with a series of lower highs and lower lows.
- The price is trading below the 200-period moving average (blue line) and 50-period moving average (red line), reinforcing bearish sentiment.
🔹Key Levels:
1. Strong Resistance Area ( 107.300 - 107.400)
- This is a significant supply zone where sellers have aggressively pushed the price down in the past.
- The price recently tested this area and failed to break higher, indicating strong resistance.
2. Resistance Level for Further Downside ( 106.700 - 106.800)
- The price is struggling to stay above this level, which has now become a short-term resistance zone.
- If price stays below this level, further downside is likely.
3. Target Area ( 105.453)
- This is the next major support level, where price could find buying interest and potentially reverse or consolidate.
▪️Market Expectation:
- Bearish Continuation:
- If price remains below the 106.700 resistance level, it is likely to continue downward towards the 105.453 target zone.
- Invalidation of Bearish Bias:
- If price breaks and closes above 107.400, it could signal a trend reversal or deeper retracement.
🔹Conclusion:
- Bias: Bearish
- Trading Plan: Look for sell opportunities below resistance zones and target 105.453 for a potential move lower.
😊Don't Forget To Hit The Like Button & Share Your Thoughts In Comments.
Bearish then bullish I think open on Sunday, the USD Will bearish And then it’s probably gonna be bullish
DXY is headed for a Super-cycle TVC:DXY is headed for an e Supercycle that will rival what BTC has gone on over the past 5 years. USDXY’s chart from 1985 to today is the exact same pattern in BTC from 2016 to 2020 with a long double bottom a breakout retest and now the explosive impulsive move upward is left for DXY. The bull flag looks very strong on the chart and considering the length of the consolidation pattern the explosiveness to the upside could be like nothing this asset has ever seen before. As for how I'm actually playing this, I have positioned myself with heavy calls on AMEX:UUP that is the Dollar bull fund and mirrors dxy.
DOLLAR I Weekly CLS, OB, Model 1, 50% pullback possibleDOLLAR I Weekly CLS, OB, Model 1, 50% pullback possible
Hey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
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CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets.
🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2.
These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow.
Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader!
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Short Dolla Long BTCWe'll see
things haven't been great but it also feels like there's a lot of fear and uncertainty right now
DXY Phantom Strength.While I'm making this analysis Public, its purpose is really just a 'fun' project for myself to take a look back over time to see how (if) accurate it turns out to be.
what does the DXY yrTF 'tell' me?
1) the CCi has been making strong bullish moves (+100) away from the average price... while price has been printing LH's.
2) 2007 has been the only year (since 1980) with a CCi -100 Bear Push (& only just) & price printed a LL!
In other words, attempts of strength by the DXY results in an actual show of Weakness (LH's)?
While this has been sustained over decades, in my mind... DXY 'strength' DOES NOT RING TRUE.
3) While 2022 broke above the last LH of 16/17 (Off the HL of 2020...creating an up trend?)... yearly price has not closed above the 16/17 LH.
4) AND Price is still inside the 01/08 Bear Push Range.
REMEMBERING This is a Yearly Time Frame and therefore a VERY long term analysis, it seems to me the DXY is ultimately going to Dump.
5) Short Term However, I think a move to the yrWkZ of 2002 is still possible, if not likely. $115.00 ish.
Daily Market Outlook: BTC, DXY & Gold Analysis (#8)The market has been highly reactive following yesterday’s GDP and Unemployment Claims report. The DXY strengthened sharply, reaching a key resistance at 107.474. Previously, this level acted as a strong support and has now turned into a major resistance zone.
DXY Analysis
We need to consider multiple scenarios for the dollar index:
Most Likely Scenario: If DXY gets rejected from 107.474, we can look for short positions below 107.063, anticipating a continuation of the secondary downtrend in the daily timeframe.
Alternative Scenario: If DXY breaks above 107.474, it could continue strengthening toward 107.767, confirming that the correction is over and resuming the major uptrend.
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis
Gold dropped below 2878.87, entering a price correction phase. Key support levels to watch:
2841.25 (Fib 50%)
2811
2790 (Strong demand zone)
Short Position Plan (1H Timeframe)
If gold finds support at 2855 (35% Fib), and later breaks it, a short entry could be considered.
If the drop continues, the next major short opportunity is at 2841.89 in the 4H timeframe.
Long Position Plan
A confirmed breakout above 2879.26 will indicate strength, making it a valid long entry point.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis
BTC has been experiencing significant downside pressure, aligning with the February 26 analysis where I highlighted the potential for a price correction within its major uptrend.
As mentioned earlier, losing 80-82K support would shift the market bias to bearish, favoring short positions. If you shorted BTC from 85K, this could be a great area to secure profits.
Currently, BTC lacks a clear structure, so I’m waiting for more confirmation before taking new positions.
What’s Next for BTC?
If BTC closes below 80K, we will need to reassess the market structure and update our strategy accordingly.
If BTC holds above this level, there is still a chance for a recovery and potential upside continuation.
However, if 80K is lost, the recovery process could take much longer than expected.
Final Thoughts
Stay patient and wait for clear market structures before entering trades. If you’re already in positions, manage them carefully based on these levels.
I’m Skeptic , and I’m grateful to be on this journey with you all. Trading is tough, but growing together makes it worthwhile. Stay profitable and see you tomorrow! 🚀💡
Lol, DXY at it again Trading is amazing because the level I said is my 2nd POI and I didnt think price will come to, is where I'm selling from now. That's why it is not good to hold a predication too strong.
Now DXY, I wanted to sell since but was waiting for 4hrs candle close.
If you enter this exact trade, I dont think anything will stop you from hitting TP.
Yagazie
BEARISH DOLLARAfter a sweep of Buyside liquidity on the dollar. I expect a reteacement back into the range to an internal range liquidity. In this case, there is a Buyside imbalance-Sell side inefficiency below.
DOLLARThe Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Here's how the forecasted monthly change of 0.3% (previous 0.2%) might affect the USD and broader financial markets:
Impact on USD
Higher Core PCE: If the actual figure exceeds the forecast, it could signal stronger inflationary pressures. This might lead to a stronger USD as it could prompt the Fed to consider interest rate hikes to curb inflation.
Lower Core PCE: Conversely, if the actual figure is below expectations, it might suggest easing inflationary pressures. This could lead to a weaker USD as it might reduce the likelihood of rate hikes.
Broader Market Impact
Monetary Policy Expectations: A higher-than-expected Core PCE could lead to increased expectations of tighter monetary policy, potentially boosting the USD and affecting other currencies.
Market Sentiment: The release can influence market sentiment, with higher inflation readings potentially leading to increased volatility and risk aversion.
Trade Directional Bias
Bullish for USD: If Core PCE exceeds forecasts, it might strengthen the USD against other currencies due to potential interest rate hikes.
Bearish for USD: If Core PCE is below expectations, it could weaken the USD as it might reduce the likelihood of rate hikes.
The Federal Reserve closely interprets the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index as a key measure of inflation. Here's how the Fed uses this data:
1. Inflation Targeting
Core PCE as Preferred Measure: The Fed prefers the Core PCE Price Index over other inflation measures like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
Target: The Fed aims for a 2% annual inflation rate, using the Core PCE as a benchmark. If the Core PCE exceeds this target, it might prompt the Fed to consider tightening monetary policy to curb inflation
2. Monetary Policy Decisions
Interest Rate Adjustments: A higher-than-expected Core PCE figure could lead to increased expectations of interest rate hikes. This is because higher inflation suggests the economy might be growing too quickly, necessitating higher rates to slow it down and prevent overheating.
Economic Growth Assessment: The Core PCE helps the Fed assess the overall health of the economy. Stronger inflation can indicate robust economic activity, but if it exceeds the target, it might signal the need for policy adjustments to maintain economic stability
3. Market Expectations and Sentiment
Forward Guidance: The Fed uses Core PCE data to guide market expectations about future monetary policy. If the data suggests inflation is rising, the Fed might communicate a more hawkish stance, influencing market sentiment and potentially strengthening the USD.
Interpretation of Forecasted 0.3% Monthly Increase
Implications: A forecasted monthly increase of 0.3% in the Core PCE Price Index, up from 0.2%, could indicate a slight acceleration in inflation. If this increase is confirmed, it might lead to increased expectations of interest rate hikes, potentially supporting the USD
In summary, the Fed interprets the Core PCE Price Index as a critical indicator of underlying inflation trends, using it to inform monetary policy decisions and guide market expectations about future interest rates and economic conditions.
The DXY maintains its bullish stance, The DXY maintains its bullish stance, reinforcing dollar strength as a wedge market structure develops. With mitigation around the 105.600s, the pattern suggests a continued push toward the 109.000s. As the Gold market declines .Traders should monitor key levels for confirmation of sustained momentum follow for more insights , comment , and boost idea .
