shorts set-upLooking at taking selling opportunities as price is over bought this will take place very swiftly during the early hours of the US sessions
GDAXIM trade ideas
DAX MARKET Continued monitoring of the IFO business Climate Index and PMI data will be crucial. A sustained decline could signal deeper economic issues, potentially leading to a technical recession.
The upcoming snap elections in February may result in policy shifts that could impact investor sentiment and market stability
The performance of major economies, particularly the US and China, will affect demand for German exports.
Dax Short 4HGood Day, Trading View friends!
I'm excited to share my latest trading insights with you. This setup is all about those trusty Fibonacci and psychological levels. Right now, the DAX is testing a 4-hour midline, and we’re typically seeing a pullback at this point. If the DAX can hold 21,500 and 21,550 as a demand area, based on our earlier 4-hour wave, we're aiming for the next level at 21,965 to 22,000.
I’m on the lookout for a rejection near 22,000, followed by an M pattern with a lower high on the second peak for that perfect entry confirmation.
Also, be cautious today as we have the FOMC meeting. Make sure to factor that into your strategies!
Feel free to check out my previous setups to get a feel for how I approach things. I can’t wait to hear what you think and keep the conversation going!
Trading Channels The Dax is having an impressive run...
It broke out of a weekly ascending channel and hasn't looked back since.
No signs of bears year, but this could be an interesting resistance zone
DAX traders are not bothered about steel and aluminum tariffs It seems that MARKETSCOM:DE30 traders today don't care much about the announcement of US tariffs on steel and aluminum. In fact, the German index continues to show resilience and keeps forming new highs. But how can this last for?
XETR:DAX
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#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I still think we will top out around 22000 but I also think we won’t go down for meaningful points before we have printed that price. We now have made 7 consecutive green weeks and the odds of a pull-back are far better than another strong move beyond 22000. I will decide on Monday on swing shorts for at least 21k and will continue to scale in and out of shorts for this.
current market cycle: Bull trend (very climactic move last weeks, market needs to take a breather)
key levels: 20500 - 22100
bull case: Bulls want to print 22000 and then continue. As long as bears are not stepping in, bulls will continue because it has been profitable for 3 months straight. My base case for the bulls has not changed since last Sunday. We are at the top or have broken above multiple bullish patterns and I think the upside will probably be very limited. Bulls know that buying new highs in hopes of higher ones is unsustainable and we are close to the point where the bull wedge breaks and bulls will wait for pull-backs to buy.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears have a red bar on Friday, wooo ducking hooo. The bull wedge looks like it can break on Monday but bears know that 22k is the price to print, so I think they will be cautious. Only a big gap down on futures open and then follow-through below 21500 could change that. Bears can’t expect either the bull trend line nor the daily 20ema to just break on the next touch. They still have nothing until we see much bigger selling pressure. Anything below 21500 next week, would be a huge surprise for the bears.
Invalidation is above 22200.
short term: Neutral until we break below 21700. Below 21700 we will likely close the gap down to 21585 and test the lower wedge bull line.
medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full ducking bear mode.
current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts with stop 22300.
chart update: Adjusted bull wedge and bear targets.
Divergence Trading Explained For Beginners -DAX Pullback TradeTrading divergence in the Forex or Stock market can be an important tool. Learn how to identify divergences & practically apply them to your technical analysis to increase your edge & profits in the financial markets.
In this video you'll learn
What is a bullish and bearish divergence
How to use divergence to spot potential reversals in the market
How to use volume to identify key levels of reversals
How to measure out a "Kill Zone"
What are tweezer tops & tweezer bottoms & why they are important
How to use the Fibonacci retracement tool
How to use the Relative Strength Index (RSI Indicator)
Your Trading Coach - Akil
GER40-SELL strategy 6 hourly chartOverall I have no change in view, and at different levels, we remain overbought. The market re-tested previous highs and this spooked the market a bit, I feel. However, medium term I see a return to 20,850 area, based on longer term charts.
Short-term it is a tug of war game.
Strategy SELL @ 21,750- 22,000 and take profit at 20,950 for now.
GER40 "Germany 40" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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Entry 📈 :
"The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (21250.00) then make your move - Bearish profits await!"
however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high or low level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at 21500.00 (swing Trade) Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
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First Target 20800.00 (or) Escape Before the Target
Final Target 20300.00 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
GER40 "Germany 40" Indices Market is currently experiencing a Neutral (there is a high chance for Bearish trend)., driven by several key factors.
🟠Fundamental Analysis
1. Earnings Growth: The Germany 40 index has experienced a decline in earnings growth, with a 5-year average earnings growth rate of 5%.
2. Dividend Yield: The dividend yield of the Germany 40 index is currently 2.5%, which is relatively low compared to historical standards.
3. Valuation: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Germany 40 index is currently 15.6, which is slightly above its historical average.
⚪Macro Analysis
1. GDP Growth: The German economy has experienced a slowdown in GDP growth, with a 2022 growth rate of 1.4%.
2. Inflation: The inflation rate in Germany has remained relatively low, with a 2022 inflation rate of 1.4%.
3. Interest Rates: The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a dovish stance, keeping interest rates low to support economic growth.
🟢COT Analysis
1. Non-Commercial Traders: Non-commercial traders, such as hedge funds and institutional investors, have increased their short positions in the Germany 40 index, with a net short exposure of 10,000 contracts.
2. Commercial Traders: Commercial traders, such as banks and brokerages, have decreased their long positions in the Germany 40 index, with a net long exposure of 5,000 contracts.
⚫Sentiment Analysis
1. Retail Trader Sentiment: Retail traders have a bearish sentiment towards the Germany 40 index, with 55% being bearish.
2. Institutional Investor Sentiment: Institutional investors have decreased their bullish sentiment towards the Germany 40 index, with 50% being bullish.
3. Hedge Fund Sentiment: Hedge funds have increased their bearish sentiment towards the Germany 40 index, with 60% being bearish.
🟤Positioning Analysis
1. Long Positions: Long positions in the Germany 40 index have decreased, with a net long exposure of 50,000 contracts.
2. Short Positions: Short positions in the Germany 40 index have increased, with a net short exposure of 10,000 contracts.
3. Open Interest: Open interest in the Germany 40 index has decreased, with a current open interest of 500,000 contracts.
🟣Based on this analysis, the Germany 40 index is expected to trend bearish in the short term, with a 60% chance of a downtrend and a 30% chance of an uptrend. However, please note that market predictions can be unpredictable and influenced by various factors.
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As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
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Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
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DAX: Channel Up, Bullish Cross targeting 22,500DAX turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.428, MACD = 367.400, ADX = 47.746) which is signalling a strong uptrend ahead, especially with the 4H RSI rising on a Bullish Cross. The last time the Channel Up pattern traded on those numbers it was on January 15th, again after a 4H MACD Bullish Cross and a bottom bounce. That time it increased by +7.50%. That is again our medium term target (TP = 22,500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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GER40-SELL strategy 3D chartIt has gone back almost to square one, and as unexpected as it is, it does not change the overall view. The expected overall move is correction back towards 20,900 to remove the ovebrought state it is in. we are trading above regression channel and almost in most cases this will not last.
Strategy SELL @ 21,550-21,700 (and beyond) and take profit near 21,950 for now.
Endless Growth: Why the Stock Market Will Always RiseThe stock market is an ever-growing ecosystem, driven by progress, innovation, and human resilience. As illustrated in the chart, the market has consistently overcome challenges, such as the Dotcom Bubble, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and even the unforeseen global pandemic (COVID-19), emerging stronger with each recovery. These events, although disruptive, highlight an inherent truth: growth is the ultimate natural force.
Every major market correction is followed by an upward movement, as companies innovate, adapt, and evolve in response to change. The rapid recovery after crises exemplifies the resilience of both markets and businesses, which continue to create value, discover new solutions, and open doors to new opportunities.
Furthermore, the long-term trend shows that the market does not just bounce back—it accelerates. Technology advances, industries expand, and populations grow. Each new development or breakthrough fosters additional growth, creating even more wealth and opportunities. The market, by its nature, is fueled by this perpetual drive to expand, evolve, and improve.
Thus, despite periodic downturns, the overarching trend remains clear: the stock market will always grow. Growth is not just an eventuality; it is the essential force driving the economy and the future of investing.
German DAX Holding Strong Above SupportChart Analysis:
The DAX Index continues its bullish trajectory, maintaining a steady uptrend with prices hovering near recent highs. Despite a minor pullback, the overall trend remains intact, supported by key technical levels.
1️⃣ Uptrend Intact with Rising Support:
The trendline (blue) continues to provide dynamic support.
A shallow retracement suggests buyers remain in control.
2️⃣ Moving Averages as Key Support:
50-day SMA (blue): 20,368.88, providing a reliable support zone.
200-day SMA (red): 19,066.15, reinforcing the long-term bullish bias.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators Reflect Strength:
RSI: At 67.70, showing strong momentum but approaching overbought levels.
MACD: Trending higher, confirming continued upside momentum.
What to Watch:
A sustained move above 21,500 could trigger further upside toward 22,000+.
A break below the trendline or the 50-day SMA could signal deeper consolidation before another leg higher.
RSI nearing overbought conditions suggests traders should watch for potential short-term pullbacks.
The DAX Index remains bullish, with rising moving averages and trendline support reinforcing the momentum. Traders should monitor price action near key support levels for potential buying opportunities.
-MW
Decoding German DAX: Crucial Levels and Emerging PatternsFX:GER30
Current Market Overview
Explore the latest insights into the German DAX index with a focus on pivotal support, resistance levels, and potential trading patterns.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support at €21,105: This level acts as a critical neckline for a potential Head and Shoulders pattern formation. We should watch closely for any breaks below this level, as it could signal further downside movement.
Resistance at €21,557: A new resistance level has formed close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance may contribute to forming the right shoulder of a reversal pattern.
Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern
The Head and Shoulders pattern is a key technical formation to watch for:
Formation Details: If the DAX breaks below the neckline/support at €21,105, it could confirm the formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern.
Target Projection: A break below the neckline suggests a potential downside target around €20,452. This level aligns with the weekly fractal resistance previously breached at €20,529, which could act as support.
Happy Trading,
André Cardoso
GER40-SELL strategy 12 hourly chartIt will be a rough ride either way, but overall think we respect 22,000 and even close 21,825 for now. The corrective action may be towards 20,875 and considering tariffs plans, or at least the possibility of it, we should see lower levels over time.
Strategy SELL @ 21,350-21,450 and take profit near 20,950.
Dax Performance Index Cash | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Dax Performance Index Cash
- Double Formation
* (Continuation Argument)) Survey Entry & Bias Perspective
* 012345 | Wave Count | Subdivision 1
- Triple Formation
* 1st Retracement | Numbered Entry | Subdivision 2
* 2nd Retracement | Bias On Hold | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European Session(Upwards) - US-Session(Downwards) - Asian Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Bearish reversal?DAX40 (DE40) is reacting off the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 21,520.45
1st Support: 21,115.47
1st Resistance: 21,794.60
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Could the price reverse from here?GER40 is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 21,531.47
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 21,816.31
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 21,158.29
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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ShortThe price has surged to 21,804.40, but a decline signal is now emerging. If the strength dips to the pivotal point of 21,092.7, we could see it heading toward the key Fibonacci level of 20,435 in the coming weeks.
Can You Beat The Next Gen Automated Trading System?DE40 on automation was certainly a traders favourite for Jan 2025, helping pass multiple funded trading account challenges and locking in withdrawals the pair DE40 has gained much popularity in the club members hangout channel on discord. US30 was a close runner up along with GOLD!!!
Wandering DAX Butterfly In the SkyThe German stock index is inching closer to the 21800 euro level, hovering around the golden Fibonacci ratio without much hope for the future.
It seems like it's in need of a deep rest due to the lack of clear financial and political policies.
Time to kick back and relax, stock index!
SEYED.
