Chinese bull market incoming?Maybe now is the start of a new Chinese bull market, they are opening up again after Covid and likely to stimulate economy.
HSI trade ideas
HK50 Wave Analysis The following is a wave analysis of HK50 from the recent swing low of 10th March 2022.
We can see price move off a Double Bottom around 19100 and reach a high at 22300.
This uptrend can be classified into 6 waves - from start to finish of V, I,N,I,N,N.
The downtrend had commenced on the 9th of June , and price can be seen to have developed 3 waves - V , I , N.
The Kihon Suchi time periods seem to reflect nicely the wave durations - 9,17,42.
If the downtrend were to continue and see a complete reversal of this index to the prior swing low, then maybe a mirrored price, wave and time interval could be suggested.
A fourth wave as an I wave down would complete a possible H&S pattern. This is the wave structure that is presently been watched for.
HK
No hao ma!
Hope all are fine.
I feel that this setup haven't complete it's journey.
May you progress in life in bless.
Sell the HS for 500 pipsFirstly the market is super bearish.
We see a double top on M15 in HSI to sell at 21100.
Trend is down on H1 and H4.
Jamie Gun2Head - Selling HK50Trade Idea: Selling Hang Seng
Reasoning: 50% fib sell on Hang Seng
Entry Level: 21082
Take Profit Level: 20597
Stop Loss: 21195
Risk/Reward: 4.29:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
hnag seng testing the break out of downtrendseems hk is starting making a uptrend from here as long price dont falls bellow 20800! ill keep targeting 24k at least
HSI rebound rally will be slowed by profit takerWhile my view toward HSI remains bullish since the end of May after the index has decisively surged through its major resistance of the 50 days moving average, one need be aware that the index has entered a choppy zone due to the emerging selling pressure from profit taking of short term traders. That said, one should avoid breakout buying as higher price might trigger more profit taking orders causing slow down in upside price movement.
No matter how affirmative one is, it is always important to keep your head up for potential developments that are aligned with, or against your point of view. Overconfidence will turn intuition into “into-wishing” . Below are some of the actions I would closely follow in the coming weeks to detect market sentiment change:
1. Market reaction after the US CPI and FOMC rate decision
Last Friday the worse than expected US CPI figures pushed down the US equity market. Asian equity index futures (such as HSI, A50, NK225) in the night after-hours trading session also reflected the plummet. However, no matter how risk-off it was on Friday, it is worth noting that all of the 3 major US equity indexes ( SP:SPX , DJ:DJI , NASDAQ:NDX ) actually didn’t even reach the May-20 low. That means the CPI surprise indeed was not so surprising that it provided no new information to the market. What we need to observe is how the market moves when it reopens on Monday. However, major movement might only come after Thursday’s FOMC rate decision.
2. Chinese investors risk appetite
Compared to HSI, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSE Composite Index, SSE:000001 ) better reflects Chinese investors sentiment. SSE Composite Index has creeped back up to the 2022-Apr rebound peak level around 3290. At this major resistance level, the market will require positive news or policy release to sustain the bullish sentiment in order to surge through, otherwise the natural profit taking force will drive the market into consolidation or even reversal. With the increasing correlation between Hong Kong and the Chinese stock market, any change in Chinese participants' sentiment can move HSI greatly.
3. Non-Chinese fund FOMO buying of Chinese tech
If follow the Southbound fund flow from China to Hong Kong closely, 4 weeks ago Chinese investors actually have started to rebuild their position in major tech firms such as Meituan HKEX:3690 and Kuaishou HKEX:1024 (Note: Alibaba HKEX:9988 is not available for direct purchase by Chinese investors due to secondary listing and weighted voting right issue). Only until the recent 2 weeks after the earnings release of Alibaba and Meituan, non-Chinese investors finally woke up from the Chinese bearish dream and started FOMO buying. An interesting observation is that since last Thursday when HSI briefly touched 22100 level, Chinese investors have turned from net buying into net selling of Chinese tech firms. That means for the past 2 days, Chinese investors were effectively selling the stocks to the non-Chinese. Once the non-Chinese find out they are the only one buying, there might be some retracement until the price at which Chinese players are comfortable to start loading up their position again.
4. Risk of China new round of lockdown
Only 10 days after the end of Shanghai lockdown, Shanghai is restarting mandatory mass testing across districts over the weekend. Whether this event is a false alarm, or will evolve into a new wave of city lockdown is a major uncertainty. While most of the upside is already priced in from the current rally, one should actually prepare the sharp reversal to the downside when risk of lockdown emerges.
HSI - short-term correction is comingComment :
1) FundFlow+ indicator - BEAR signal is here, a short-term retracement is expected to be happen soon
2) Tricol+ indicator - still strong/no retailer bar (turquoise)
Support & Resistance :
S : 21737.94 +/- the index would enter correction if it fall below today's low
DISCLAIMER:
Analysis above SOLELY for case study purpose, not a PROFESSIONAL ADVISE. This analysis does not provide any trading advise and buy or sell. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
What happens when a multi year RSI downtrend is broken?The answer is usually an explosive move to the upside. The monthly RSI is close to being in oversold territory, so if someone wants to pick up some Chinese tech stocks, I think now is probably a good time to do so despite all the regulatory risks.
Good luck with your trades
Head and Shoulder formedInverse Head and Shoulder is formed, support around 20880. let see if the downtrend of HSI is ended.
HANG SENG The 6 year Support is holding. Potential 25k move.Hang Seng (HSI) broke and closed today above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 2021. Despite the weakness since early April, the index hasn't yet broken or even come close to the March 16 low, indicating that we have a long-term Support. That is reasonable technically as that level (18250) is a 6 year Support formed by the February 12 2016 low and as long as it holds, pull-backs should keep finding buyers.
The natural target next is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and towards the end of the year, the 0.618 Fib (around 25000), which would be a symmetrical move with the 2016 bullish break-out from the long-term correction.
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HANG SENG 30th MAY 2022In China, authorities are holding an unprecedented national meeting by teleconference in a bid to boost the economy hit by Covid-19. Investors' concerns about tightening monetary policy seem to have eased. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index led the strengthening of Asia-Pacific markets today. One of the driving factors was the soaring stock of Alibaba.
Premier Li Keqiang also warned that China's current economic difficulties outweigh the severe shocks at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. So the bearish possibility could occur before they actually get out of the fight against the pandemic.
HSI bearish trend might be overturnedMoving into the last month of Q2, the HSI has entered a very interesting zone, which might become a turning point that indicates the end of the current bearish trend. Whether the new trend will be a sustainable bull, or just a bigger consolidation band of a higher timeframe, we don’t know yet, but at least in the short term the trading opportunity will be on the long side.
Fundamental Update
Last week the Chinese premier Le Keqiang had hosted an internal economy forum to discuss policy to rescue Chinese from global recession as well as covid zero policy. This meeting is a very important indication that the party has finally started to actively (and publicly) unwind their conflicting policies on the issue of public health and economic stability. More than 100,000 participants from the central state council and local provincial government had joined, which showed the weight of this meeting.
One strong message from the meeting is that the central government would give more leeway for the provincial government to take their own action to secure their own economy. Given land sales is still the major source of income for most provinces, the tightening policy for real estate markets should see a reversal from this point onward. In fact, one should get the same message from the recent lowering of the five-year loan prime rate from 4.6% to 4.45%, which lowered the cost of borrowing for Chinese home buyers.
On May-17, the Chinese vice-premier Liu He had shared his comments on the Chinese government support toward platform economy and overseas listing of Chinese tech firms. Coming from Liu He, that was a strong indication that there is a rising popularity in the party in prioritizing economic growth versus other internal conflicts. While this might be the turning point of the 2 years long tech crackdown, we shall continue to monitor how the story continues to unfold on the government side, as well as on the tech company side if these 2 years have caused some irreversible damage to their fundamentals hence futures.
Chart Perspective
The downward trending 50 days moving average has been the ceiling of the current bearish trend since 2021-Jul
The market had tested the bottom from May-5 to May-12, but failed to reach the Mar-15 low at 18235
If the current rebound successfully break the 50 days moving average, there will be increasing chance that this bearish rebound might turn into the beginning of a consolidation band, or even bullish trend
Key levels to watch are 20850 (50 days moving average) to 20927 (May open) . Note that if the index can close above 20927, it will form a reversal candlestick pattern in the monthly chart (i.e. hammer/dragonfly doji), which is very bullish.
Trading Opportunity
The breakout trade
Long HSI futures (or bullish HSI CBBC product) when index rises through 20800 level. Recommend to adopt a trailing stop strategy for profit taking. Breakout trade should be exit if index traded back under 20800
The bullish trend following trade
As of today, the index is still trading under the 50 days moving average, meaning the bearish trend is still effective. Any higher than intra day time frame bullish trade should be considered as front running. I am not encouraging or discouraging front running, as long as one understands the frontrunner is gaining the cost benefit by taking the trade at a lower winning probability pricing or timing. To take this frontrunner trade, I recommend buying at the money or <10% out of the money June or July HSI call option (or equivalent derivative warrants product). Compared to holding an outright long future position, I prefer to make use of the exponential payout curve nature to reduce my P&L volatility when waiting, as well as increasing my delta exposure when the trend is in my favor. Option position for this longer term setup should be rollover 2 weeks before expiration to avoid theta causing material harm to your P&L. This frontrunner trade should be close if the index go below 19200-18200 (it’s a range not a level, feel free to adjust within according to your level of conviction)
HSI is starting to look overcooked on the upsideHSI may be looking to roll over. my model shows us close to overbought
i am short at 20060 with a stop above 20700 and a target at 18500
Hang Seng never so badHong Kong Index is oversold like never in its history.
As we can see in the 1 Month chart
The price is pegged to the 2000 Support and broke through the 200 average for the first time.
Is the liquidity injection process around the corner or will it sink?
LPI.sa
HK33HKD ::: 20800.000000 IntradayBeen wrong many times :)
Slowly
Risk Reward vital of success.
All the best.
Watch/read news possible changes in trend
Let's sell The HK50Background:
H4 trend is down
D1 trend is down
M30 OB
M15 OB
Waiting for weakness to sell.
HK50 Index Intraday Technical AnalysisHK50 Intraday Technical Analysis:
HK50 took support from 19240 in Asian session with an intraday closure of 19622 in Asian markets. The Asian index is expected to face resistance from this level . my target is the support of 19440 in intraday. My idea is entry at 19600 resistance level with the target of 19400 and 19200 support levels.
If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics
HSI Selloff Looking Overcooked,This index is starting to look extremely oversold here and price looks like it might rocket to the upside.
Going long with a target at 23600 ish
HK50 Index Intraday Technical AnalysisHK50 cash index opened with a gap towards downside. The price is expected to take support at 19500. My idea is that the price will make a false breakout towards downside and then reverse the trend. My target is support of 19500 with the goal of resistance of 19800 for intraday.
If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics
HK50 Index Intraday Technical AnalysisHong Kong 50 index continued its downtrend during the hongkong / shanghai session. The HK50 index is trying to find support between 20700 and 20500. My idea is entry at 20500 and 20700 after confirmation of support and my goal will be the resistance of 21000.
If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics
#HK50 #HongKongStockExchange #CashIndices
HANG SENG INDEX - global potencial move (language of numbers)Globally gaining a large long position with a 15% stop behind loy
Steve's Gun2Head Trade - Selling HKXHKD Trade Idea: Selling HangSeng (HKXHKD)
Reasoning: Bearish engulfing on hourly chart after stalling at resistance. Forming a potential bearish flag on the 4hr chart
Entry Level: 20831
Take Profit Level: 20031
Stop Loss: 21031
Risk/Reward: 4:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
