NDQM trade ideas
Is NASDAQ ready to correct for a few days?We have a couple of doji candles on the daily chart forming out of a bearish imbalance range in the relative premium. This is the perfect place to test the lows for stops.
We are still bullish but I am going to go neutral for this forecast in anticipation of a slight correction.
Share this with someone who needs a complete top down analysis of where we are staring this week!
NASDAQ Critical level for short-term.Nasdaq (NDX) is testing a strong short-term Support Cluster, the Lower Lows trend-line and the bottom of the 1H Channel Up. Being below the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line), the trend is right now neutral until one of the two levels breaks.
If the index breaks above the 1H MA50, we will turn bullish again, targeting 22200 (+5.70% from the current Low, the minimum % rise in the past month).
If it breaks below the Support Cluster, we will turn bearish, targeting the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) at 20800.
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NAS100...Ever The Bullish Instrument 36As you all know I am eternally bullish on the NAS100...
What this means is that I trade my Hl's to my HH's.
Whenever there is a a hard retracement like we had over the past month, that is the time I either do the following
1. Wait or it to be over
2. Trade smaller positions to a HL (since the monthly needed the HL)
3. Or just keep testing new retracement theories so that I an expand my overall strategy.
What we have seen is that since Monday April 7, we got a confirmation for the Monthly HL and sine then the market has been working itself back to another ATH.
It is just a matter of patience and understanding that the market will always go back and break every single high that has been created as it continues to be eternally bullish.
Understanding this concept ensures 100% success as long as proper risk management is followed and an understanding that any sells in the market are only temporary retracements towards the HL on a larger timeframe.
With that being said...
All elements of the Auberstrategy remain in tact and working efficiently...
Happy Trading
#auberstrategy
#aubersystem
#zigzagtheory
#whywewait
Nasdaq-100 H1 | Pullback support at 23.6% Fibonacci retracementNasdaq-100 (NAS100) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 20,898.76 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 20,500.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 21,471.38 which is a swing-high resistance.
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NAS100 - Will the Stock Market Reach Its Previous High?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the trend line is broken, I expect corrective moves, but if the index corrects towards the demand zone, we can look for further buying positions in Nasdaq with a risk-reward ratio. Maintaining this trend line will lead to a continuation of the Nasdaq upward trend.
The strong rally in U.S. equities that had pushed the S&P 500 close to record highs for 2025 came to a halt on Friday, following the release of disappointing consumer sentiment data. A report from the University of Michigan revealed a drop in consumer confidence and a surge in inflation expectations to levels not seen in decades—factors that have amplified concerns about the economy’s outlook.
Despite this, some analysts remain hopeful that robust corporate earnings and the temporary suspension of tariffs could provide needed support for the market. Meanwhile, rating agency Moody’s warned that U.S. federal debt is projected to climb to 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2024.
Moody’s noted that while the U.S. economy and financial system remain strong, the weakening of certain fiscal indicators has diminished the ability of these strengths to offset negative effects. According to their analysis, trade tariffs will not significantly impact long-term U.S. economic growth, and substantial changes in mandatory spending are unlikely in the near future.
Although the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded, the country’s long-term domestic and foreign credit ceilings remain at AAA. However, Moody’s has revised the overall credit rating for the U.S. down from AAA to Aa1.
One noteworthy detail is that since April 21, the index has seen only one negative trading day—May 9, which experienced only a slight decline. Falling Treasury yields have reduced some market risks, while Donald Trump’s trip to the Middle East has also helped ease political tensions at home. The market clearly reflects growing investor appetite for risk, though the possibility of a correction at these levels remains real.
Looking ahead to this week, traders will closely monitor preliminary purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for May on Thursday. They will also pay attention to speeches from several Federal Reserve officials to gauge whether the Fed remains focused on economic growth or has shifted more attention to inflation, especially in light of recent U.S.-China trade agreements.
A rise in PMI figures may suggest that business sentiment has improved since tensions eased between the U.S. and China, but investors are also eager for clear guidance on the Fed’s next policy steps. Key speakers include John Williams (New York Fed), Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed), Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed), and Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed). If these officials continue to express concerns about elevated inflation risks, the U.S. dollar could continue to strengthen, as markets may price in fewer rate cuts ahead.
As for the equity markets, their reaction remains uncertain. Recently, equities have risen even as expectations for rate cuts have diminished—primarily due to a reduced fear of recession following tariff adjustments. However, with recession fears now less pronounced and a growing narrative around sustained higher rates due to sticky inflation, Wall Street may pull back if Fed officials emphasize upside inflation risks.
In related news, President Donald Trump harshly criticized Walmart’s pricing strategy, stating that the company should absorb the cost of tariffs rather than passing them onto consumers. In a public statement, Trump pointed out that Walmart made billions in profit last year and argued that American shoppers should not bear the burden of higher prices caused by trade tariffs.
Trump also implicated China in the issue, stating that either Walmart or China should take responsibility for these added costs. He warned that both he and consumers are closely watching how Walmart handles the situation.
US Debt Crisis & NAS100Shorting levels reached again.
This time the shorting level is DEBT CRISIS at 13600.
In the today news:
Moody’s downgrade of the U.S.′ credit rating.
The levels was mentioning at
Norges Bank Reveals potential 800 billion dollar loss in stress test scenario.
www.youtube.com
As far is correct.
NDX Be carefullWe’re currently braced for an 8–9% pullback in the Nasdaq 100 before we attempt what could prove to be a bull‑trap breakout above last cycle’s all‑time high. Historically, the ‘summer swoon’ is supported by data showing that, since 2000, the Nasdaq 100 has experienced an average decline of roughly 5–7% between June and August as institutional investors trim positions ahead of mid‑year portfolio rebalances. With selling pressure typically peaking in July—when mutual funds lock in gains for window dressing—we’re unlikely to see a committed uptrend until the back‑to‑school season around late September to early October. Even if we see a short‑lived bounce on positive headlines or better‑than‑expected earnings, the broader bias remains sideways to down until seasonal headwinds abate and real money players rotate back into large‑cap tech.
NAS100 Testing Channel High – Breakout or Pullback?NASDAQ is pressing against the top of a freshly formed channel in line with its long-term uptrend. A break and close above could trigger new all-time highs, but a pullback to retest the channel or trendline first remains on the table. Both scenarios offer strong trade setups.
NQ: Upcoming Weekly analysis!FA Analysis:
1- Not much to update in comparison to last week analysis.
- Trump deals have had the upper hand; Market took them as a relief and stocks and equities are crumbs away from the pre-tariffs values.
- FED has tied hands:
a) On one hand, FED knows very well the negative impacts of tariffs that both prices and employment are not hit yet by them.
b) On the other hand, economic data are still good which are sufficiently reasonable and rationale to cut rate.
c) Latest data on Consumer Sentiment came undershoot and Inflation Expectations came overshoot which really reflect the tariff impacts.
Hence, it will be very difficult for the FED to cut rates on June meeting.
2- Moody's Rating: Last Friday Moody cut United States ratings to AA1 from AAA
Market will open with a Gap down.
3- Next week is relatively calm in terms of macro-economic data. We might see other Trump's deals.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:
NQ Weekly candle provided a strong bullish candle.
Price closed and broke out the monthly Candle (green dashed line).
1- If the opening (gap down) is below the green dashed line, the weekly close should be revised down to the opening.
2- If the opening is above the green line, the weekly close is bullish.
Price should retest both the previous weekly high and low (blue lines) as a sign of Consolidation.
Daily TF:
The last three days show a clear exhaustion.
According to the ST/MT/LT Outlook (i.e., SELL), FED no rate cut in June and Moody's rating, market might start a sell-off.
That's all for this week. Wish you a green and wealthy week!
(Note: This analysis reflects my view and my bias that ST/MT/LT Outlook is Sell. Someone else may argue a complete opposite narrative and it could be a correct analysis. So do your own assessment and make your own decisions!)
Short US100Think we see a move up to the 0.786 fib level from the recent highs with a rejection down further if more blocks or doubt is cast on the new trade deals and tariffs.
TP would be the weekly lows
Bearish thoughts
- The fundamentals of the tariffs deals are getting challenged
- A bit more aggressiveness from china and we might see a move down
- Daily MACD is pointing down suggesting downward pressure which we are seeing on hourly chart
Bullish structure remains on the 4hr chart
H&S Watch! Pullback Toward 18.4K Likely, POC at 15K is Critical!This chart presents a comprehensive technical and macro assessment of the NASDAQ 100 (US100) using the daily timeframe. The focal point is a developing Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, currently unconfirmed, but well-formed with strong structural and momentum confluence.
🧠 Thought Process & Structure
The chart reveals a potential H&S pattern with the right shoulder forming just below 22,200. While the neckline at 18,400 has not broken yet, several signals support the idea of a short-term pullback:
Bearish RSI divergence from the recent high
Stochastic crossovers on both daily and weekly timeframes from overbought levels
A large unfilled gap near 18,400 that is likely to act as a magnet
Rather than predicting an immediate collapse, this analysis takes a probability-weighted approach and lays out both bullish and bearish outcomes clearly.
📉 Current Expectation: Pullback Toward 18,400
A move toward 18,400 is the base case. This level represents:
The neckline of the H&S structure
The location of Gap Fill Target 2
A prior demand zone from April 2025
A bounce here would not invalidate the pattern but could delay its confirmation. It’s also a valid level for a short-term long trade setup if buyers defend it strongly.
⚠️ Break Below 18,400: POC Zone Becomes Critical
Should 18,400 break decisively, the market could test the Point of Control (POC) around 15,000. This zone:
Has the highest historical volume concentration
Aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement
Marks the new measured move target of the Head & Shoulders pattern
In short, 15,000 becomes the most critical structural and psychological support. If it fails, deeper risk reopens.
🔻 Deeper Move Scenarios (Now Less Likely)
Previous versions of this chart targeted 10,500. That level is now considered outside the measured move and only becomes viable if:
15,000 fails to hold
Macro conditions deteriorate sharply (e.g., inflation remains sticky, Fed turns hawkish, or recession triggers a risk-off rotation)
At this time, such an extended move is low probability.
📈 Bullish Invalidation
A breakout above 22,200 with strong volume would invalidate the entire bearish pattern. This would suggest bullish continuation and open the door to 24,000 and beyond. This scenario is also plotted on the chart and clearly labeled.
🧭 Trading Plan
Monitor for rejection or bounce at 18,400
If it holds, long opportunity may develop
If it fails, prepare for POC test at 15,000
Only consider deeper targets if breakdown volume is strong
Invalidate bearish outlook if price closes decisively above 22,200
📅 Macro Events to Watch (June–July 2025)
June 6 – Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
June 11 – CPI Report (May)
June 17–18 – FOMC Meeting
June 26 – Final Q1 GDP
June 27 – PCE Inflation
July 3 – June Employment Report
July 15 – June CPI
July 30 – FOMC Meeting #5 & Q2 GDP Advance Estimate
These events could act as triggers for either confirming or invalidating the current technical setup.
✅ Summary
This is a developing setup — not a confirmed breakdown. The current expectation is a pullback toward 18,400, with a potential bounce. If that support fails, the 15,000 POC becomes the key level to watch. The measured move of the H&S pattern now targets 15,000 — not 10,500. Deeper downside should only be considered if strong macro or volume-based catalysts emerge.
This approach allows for flexibility, clarity, and trade planning without bias. Let the chart prove itself — and be ready either way.