NDQM trade ideas
US 100 IndexIt would seem within the coming week, the first potential support to monitor on a closing basis is still the 19065 retracement, with 20307 continuing to represent possible resistance.
While closing breaks of either of these levels won’t guarantee a significant price movement with much still dependent on the outcome of events across the week, a closing breakout may lead to a more extended price move in the direction of any break.
Support: Closing breaks under the 19065 support might suggest resumption of recent declines, with risks possibly then emerging to test 18111, which is the deeper 50% retracement, may be even further if this is in turn breached.
Resistance: If 20307 is broken to the upside on a closing basis, it may lead to a further retracement of the February to March weakness, with the 50% level standing at 20679, or even 21050, which is the higher 62% retracement.
NQ: Today's planFollowing strong bearish Q/M/W candles and ST/MT/LT Sell Outlooks, today's plan: Sell the retest of TL.
BUY Stop on Nas100/US100this is a tricky trade where I'm looking for the break of tht high represented by the light bulb 💡the break above it is a confirmation for the buy entry any moves down or failure of breakage means it's an invalidated trade
USTEC Sell Limit Trade Idea⏳ Expires: 02/04/2025 - 12:00
Market Outlook
A 5-wave bearish count has completed at 18,818, indicating potential downside.
The 261.8% Fibonacci extension from 20,363 to 19,765 is located at 18,796, reinforcing bearish momentum.
Equities opened higher due to an overnight positive theme, but previous support at 19,423 has now turned into resistance.
Trade Details
Entry (Sell Limit): 19,415
Stop Loss: 19,555 (-140 points)
Take Profit: 19,125 (+290 points)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.07:1
Key Levels
Resistance:
R1: 19,415 (Bespoke Resistance)
R2: 19,423 (Previous Support Turned Resistance)
R3: 20,636
Support:
S1: 19,157
S2: 19,124
S3: 18,796 (Fibonacci Extension Target)
Technical & Fundamental Factors
✅ Bearish 5-Wave Count Completed – Suggests potential for further downside.
✅ Fibonacci Resistance at 18,796 – Aligns with key technical levels.
✅ Previous Support Turned Resistance – 19,423 may act as a rejection zone.
⚠️ ISM Manufacturing PMI Release (01/04/2025 at 15:00) – Potential market-moving event to watch.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NASDAQ: Wave Analysis & Forecast for April-MayHello, traders! Let’s analyze the current wave structure of the NASDAQ index.
At the moment, there is a high probability that the index is forming wave C of a correction. Most likely, this is a horizontal expanded correction.
✅ Sub-wave 1 of wave C has already formed.
✅ Sub-wave 2 is also likely completed.
On Friday, the index showed a strong decline and closed at the day’s lows, indicating a high probability of further downside movement next week.
What’s next?
We expect the formation of the third sub-wave within wave C. Most likely:
🔻 The index will continue to decline toward 17,700, where the 38% Fibonacci level is located.
🔻 The key support zone is 17,300.
🔻 After a short correction, the decline may extend to 16,300.
🔻 In a deeper scenario – down to 15,700-15,000.
Technical factors
⚡ The price failed to break above the 200-day moving average, bounced off it, and started declining.
⚡ The next major support is the 200-week moving average, around 16,200.
⚡ Throughout April – May, the market is likely to remain in a correction phase.
Once key levels are reached, we expect a potential reversal and new highs in the second half of 2025.
Stay tuned and share your thoughts in the comments!
Nasdaq market analysis: 03-APRIL-2025Good morning Dear Traders! Join me for Nasdaq market analysis for the today. Share your charts, ask questions, and let's discuss trading strategies.
USTEC Buy Setup – Reversal Signal & Smart Money AccumulationTechnical: After a sharp decline, TRADENATION:USTEC has found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A reversal candle on March 31, followed by a bullish confirmation on April 1, suggests a potential bottom. Today’s small pullback ahead of Liberation Day may offer a buying opportunity.
Fundamental: While concerns over tariff implementation persist, the market may have already priced in the worst-case scenario. Any outcome perceived as "less bad than expected" could trigger a short-term rebound. Additionally, increased commercial interest in TRADENATION:USTEC signals that smart money is positioning for a move higher.
Risk & Reward: This is a speculative setup due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, but it presents an attractive risk-reward opportunity.
📈 Trade Idea:
Entry: 19308
Stop Loss: 18766
Target: 20726
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
US100Price is back to retest H4 support that was broken and it looks like buyers have no more pressure. Got the bearish flag on M15 and if broken we could see price back down to 18,800
$NQ CorrectionPrice clearly is going towards Sellside Liquidity.
The standard deviation shows -2 to -2.5 is where price would reverse from and its also aligned with Sellside liquidity.
Idea: Bearish.
NQ: End of day analysis!We got another bearish day, but NO change in the structure! Price is making a HL. As long as there is no LL, we can expect anytime a move up to create a new HH.
Tariffs noises are weighing a lot and restraining the move up to 50%.
Tomorrow we have Core PCE.
1- An overshoot, cancel the 50% and price go south;
2- Inline and undershoot, the 50% is reachable and price goes north.
Monday is end of Month and Quarter. Rebalancing portfolios large hands and corporations is in play.
Good evening/night!
NDX Nasdaq *2025* Bear MarketCalled it too early. Trump pump is over. Now back on track. See you at $14K.
Moustafa! NASDAQ 16.03 Warren Buffett would wink to me right now- If you want to know the moves of the market whales, you have to think as you are one of them! then you need to think big! and analyse on the large time frames!
- Open the weekly frame then you will notice the biggest rising channel in the history of Nasdaq which started to form on March 2020! then you will find that the index touched already twice its upper and lower line! which validated that channel! inside it you would find other smaller channels! but have a look on when the whales including the great Warren Buffett sold a big portion of his stocks! before it reaches the upper line! for a clear reason!
- I believe that chart is showing everything and the people in charge in this world is setting simply reasons to make it happen! any reasons you could imagine! just to make it work out! for example Trump winning or his created agenda of tariffs and the response back from the attacked countries to set other tariffs in return! a trade war! which no one knows when and how it would end! and how will exactly the consequences be in the medium and long term! but why we would not think that the stocks markets were not planned to crash from the early beginning?! nothing is not planned and they know exactly what they are doing! and what they will and how!
- You remember me creating an idea since two months and predicted that a huge bearish wave would hit this index and us 30 too and could be the biggest one in that index history! no one believed me! but now only all know that I was right! and Here I am, coming again with an idea for a medium and long term time frames predicting the next move and will tell you why!
- I said before that you would find series of red weekly candles and look now, we reached our 4th bearish weekly candles and moreover in a row! and this wave is the 7th fastest bearish waves in Nasdaq history! the 4th candle closed under the moving average 50! imagine that the last week candle closed under the average of the last 50 WEEKS candles! just imagine that!
- Just observe with me, that between September 2022 and January 2023, the price formed a double bottom pattern after a very strong bearish trend, was enough to turn the index completely bullish for a complete 2 years till February 2025! but now between December 2024 and February 2025, the index formed exactly the opposite! a double top pattern also on the weekly chart!
- In trading, there is a simple rule but not many traders know about it! that every long wick MUST and WILL be filled sooner or later! then have a look on the weekly candle lower long massive wick from the week of carry trade of 05.08.2024! remember that week as we will return back to its low! (the TP2) as the massive pull back happened after its settle on the MA50 exactly, then went up non-stop literally in a huge bullish rally leaving behind a wick could fill the space between the sky and the ground! This wick will be filled in this wave!
- Consider please the area I highlighted in yellow in a square! that is an area without any volume and each time recently the price go in that area, would try to return back so fast with a power! that would explain Friday 15.03.2025 massive push up for more than 2% to the upside! as if it would fell down, so no interest from traders in any price that! which means in case it would return back and fall in that area, the index would travel to its end non stop!
- The target of the massive double top pattern is 18330 but my TP1 is before that level! as the index did not reach back to test the high of the weekly candle of 20.05.2024 so there a retrace to the upside would happen! but temporarily! but on the weekly! so it could be looking like a big retrace on lower time frames!
- Let us say that market could open bullish on Monday then any good news would take place or whatever which would lead to a bullish wave! I would say no chance to go further up more than 20845! and the weekly candle would close under that price, as that the neck line of the massive double top pattern on the weekly chart!
- My TP 3 is so critical and the most important support and resistance level, when the index broke that resistance in the week of 15.01.2024 and never tested it back on the weekly chart! so I believe it is the time, that will happen!
- My TP4 is the deepest price we could reach to which is at the MA 200 and another top of the week 31.07.2024 which the index did not test too and it was also a strong resistance level! and by reaching there, would mean reaching to the lower line of the rising channel! or I expect it would reach there when the index reaches in same time the lower rising channel line! but I can guarantee the price but can not expect how long time it would take to reach there!
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Title: How to Spot Potential Price Reversals: Part 2A subject within technical analysis that many find difficult to apply to their day-to-day trading is the ability to spot reversals in price.
Yesterday we posted part 1 of this 2 part educational series, where we used GBPUSD as an example of how you could identify and trade a Head and Shoulders/Reversed Head and Shoulders pattern.
In today’s post we discuss a Double Top/Double Bottom, using a recent US 100 example.
Our intention is to help you understand why price activity is reversing and highlight how knowledge of this may be applied within your own individual trading strategies.
The Double Top Reversal:
The Double Top, is formed by 2 distinct price highs.
This pattern highlights the potential,
• reversal of a previous uptrend in price, into a phase of price weakness
• reversal of a previous downtrend in price into a more prolonged period of price strength.
In this example, we are going to talk about a bearish reversal in price called a Double Top.
Points to Note: A Double Top
• An uptrend in price must be in place for the pattern to form.
• A Double Top pattern is made up of 2 clear highs and one low, forming a letter ‘M’ shape on a price chart.
• This pattern reflects an inability of buyers to push price activity above a previous peak in price, potentially highlighting a negative shift in sentiment and sellers gaining the upper hand. This is regarded as a ‘weak test’ of a previous price failure high and leaves 2 price peaks at, or very close to each other.
• A horizontal trendline is drawn at the low between the 2 peaks, which highlights the neckline of the pattern. If this is broken on a closing basis, the pattern is completed, reflecting a negative sentiment shift and the potential of further price weakness.
Point to Note: To understand a bullish reversal, known as a ‘Double Bottom’ please simply follow the opposite analysis of what is highlighted above.
US 100 Example:
In the chart below, we look at the US 100 index and the formation of a Double Top pattern from earlier in 2025.
As with any bearish reversal in price, a clear uptrend and extended price advance must have been seen for the reversal pattern to be valid. On the chart above, this was reflected by the advance from the August 5th 2024 low up into the December 16th price high.
The Double Top pattern is made up of 2 price highs close or at the same level as each other, with a low trade in the middle, which forms a letter ‘M’ on the chart (see below).
In this example above, the highs are marked by 22142, the December 16th and 22226, the February 18th highs, with the 20477 level posted on January 13th represents the low traded in the middle, which helps to form the ‘M’.
The Neckline of the pattern is drawn using a horizontal line at the 20477 January 13th low, with the Double Top pattern completed on closes below this level. Potential then turns towards a more extended phase of price weakness to reverse the previous uptrend, even opening the possibility a new downtrend in price being formed.
Does the Double Top Pattern Suggest a Potential Price Objective?
Yes, it does. This can be done by measuring the height of the 2nd peak in price down to the Neckline level at that time, this distance is projected lower from the point the neckline was broken, suggesting a possible minimum objective for any future price decline.
In the example above, the 2nd high was at 22226, posted on February 18th 2025, with the Neckline at 20477, meaning the height of the pattern was 1749 (points). On February 27th the Neckline of the pattern was broken on a closing basis.
This means… 20477 – 1749 = 18728 as a minimum potential price objective for the Double Top pattern.
Of course, as with any technical pattern, completion is not a guarantee of a significant phase of price movement, with much still dependent on future sentiment and price trends.
Therefore, if initiating a trade based on a Double Top pattern, you must ALWAYS place a stop loss to protect against any unforeseen event or price movement.
This stop loss should initially be placed just above the level of the 2nd price high, as any break negates the pattern, meaning we were wrong to class the pattern as we did.
Hopefully, as prices fall after completion of the pattern, you can consider moving your stop loss lower, keeping it just above lower resistance levels to protect your position and lock in potential gains.
While both the Head and Shoulders and Double Top/Bottom patterns can take a prolonged period to form and we must be patient to wait for completion, they reflect important signals indicating potential changes in price sentiment and direction.
By understanding how and why these patterns form can offer an important insight to potential price activity that can help to support day to day decision making when deciding on trading strategies.
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Nasdaq in Correction: Technical Targets and Weekly OutlookWe can observe that Nasdaq has started a new corrective leg since its last recovery in early Q3 2024. Currently, the index is experiencing its first rebound and test of the 20-period moving average (MA20, in green) since this average turned downward. Typically, this scenario triggers a selling reaction, with the first target at the previous low of 19,200. If selling pressure intensifies, the next projections are at 18,300 and 17,900.
However, from a weekly perspective, there is still room for a deeper correction, potentially reaching the 200-period moving average (MA200), which is currently at 15,690. When applying a Fibonacci retracement to the last major bullish leg (Oct 10, 2022 – Feb 17, 2025), we see that the 50% retracement level aligns closely with the weekly MA200 at 16,300.
We know that price movements do not follow a straight line but rather unfold in waves. Given this context, the bias remains bearish, and I see further corrections ahead in the U.S. market.
Nasdaq Short: Top of channelThis is similar to the S&P500 short idea. In fact, they complement each other. While S&P500 has breached the top trendline, Nasdaq hits the trendline.
Also something different from S&P500 is that the Nasdaq correction unfolds is 5 waves instead of 3 in S&P500.
Place the stop loss where I indicated and you should be fine to take one a positional short.
Good luck!
2025 Outlook: Correction and Harmonic PatternsThe NASDAQ , after peaking at an unprecedented 22,000 in 2024, has begun a corrective phase driven by pausing Federal Reserve interest rates, concerns over tech-sector profitability, and escalating geopolitical tensions and Trump Commands. This pullback reflects a shift away from growth stocks toward safer assets.
As outlined in this Chart, the index is now validating a bearish harmonic pattern (Crab), which typically signals major trend reversals.
The pattern’s completion zone aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels (61.8–78.6%) of the 2022–2024 bull run, projecting downside targets:
- Near-term support: 20,000–20,500 (dynamic support near the 100-week moving average).
- Intermediate zone: 19,000–19,500 (50% Fibonacci level and long-term trendline confluence).
- Final target: 18,500 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement and psychological “golden support”).
Macro risks, such as prolonged restrictive monetary policy, slowing AI-driven earnings growth, and U.S.-China and US-Europe trade tensions, could accelerate this decline.
Traders are monitoring a decisive break below 20,500 with high volume to confirm bearish momentum, while a rebound from 18,500—coupled with reversal patterns like a double bottom may signal a short/mid-term buying opportunity.
This outlook hinges on earnings reports from mega-cap tech firms (Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA) and Federal Reserve policy guidance.
US100US100 is in bearish trend,
printing LH and LL.
Alligator indicator also indicates price will go down.
We sell at CMP.
Good times still to roll on after correction.Bear flag forming at the edge of the channel. The flag pole came down with good volume and flag itself (consolidation) on decrease volume therefore good probability of more downside. If that happens that could create a Wycoff spring and resume the current trend.
