Dow Jones Gains on Rate Cut Hopes and Ceasefire Relief US30 OVERVIEW
Wall Street Rises on Fed Rate Cut Hopes and Geopolitical De-escalation
The Dow Jones (US30) remains under bullish pressure, supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year and a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, which has eased market tensions.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – US30
The price maintains a bullish bias as long as it trades above the pivot level at 42,810, with upside potential toward the key resistance at 43,210.
A short-term bearish correction is possible toward 42,810 or even 42,670, but the broader structure remains bullish above these levels.
Resistance Levels: 43,060 → 43,210 → 43,350
Support Levels: 42,670 → 42,420 → 42,160
A sustained break below 42,670 could signal deeper correction, while a clear move above 43,210 would confirm continued bullish momentum.
WS30M trade ideas
US30 Long Opportunity US30 shows strong bullish confluences at the opening of the week, currently testing the resistance level at 42,900. Price is above above the 50 SMA and favors bullish momentum per the RSI above 55.
Potentially retracement towards the break and retest level at 42,400 where we could see a potential continuation of the bullish trend after the market collects enough liquidity.
This is support by fundamentals of the day being the cease fire between Iran-Israel. investor more comfortable taking risks and stepping back into the indices.
US30 Sell IdeaWe see price beginning to downtrend forming LL & LH. We also see price beginning to get closer to our daily low. Now we enter off of the 2nd mitigation of the bearish engulfing located at our point of interest on the 1hr. Really nice signature setup here. Overall I feel good I really took my time finding this setup!
SELL US30US30 is currently testing a macro-level resistance zone that has historically reversed price sharply. The current market behavior hints at a bearish rejection, with a projected move toward 37K first, and potentially 34K later, if broader market sentiment shifts risk-off. This setup provides a favorable risk-reward ratio for swing short traders, especially if confirmed by price action triggers in the coming days.
US30 (Dow Jones) Analysis – June 2025 Outlook📊 US30 (Dow Jones) Analysis – June 2025 Outlook
🔍 1. Fundamental Analysis
The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is currently navigating a complex environment shaped by macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical tensions. Below is an in-depth review of current factors influencing its price action:
🏦 Monetary Policy & Economic Indicators
Federal Reserve Stance:
After a series of rate hikes between 2022 and 2024, the Fed has adopted a more dovish tone in 2025.
Market consensus now expects the Fed to cut rates by Q3–Q4 2025 as inflation cools and growth moderates.
Inflation:
The May 2025 CPI came in lower than expected at 2.7% YoY, signaling disinflation.
Core CPI and PCE data also reflect a slowing pace of price increases, strengthening the case for easing.
Labor Market:
Non-farm payrolls have stabilized, but wage growth is slowing.
Unemployment remains low at 3.8%, but job creation is skewed toward lower-paying service sectors.
Growth Metrics:
ISM Manufacturing PMI remains below 50 (contraction), but Services PMI is resilient.
Consumer confidence dipped recently, reflecting uncertainty, yet consumer spending remains robust.
🌍 Geopolitical Climate
Iran–Israel Conflict Escalation (Mid 2025):
The recent Iran-Israel military clashes have rattled markets, briefly triggering risk-off flows.
The conflict has led to spikes in crude oil prices, pushing energy stocks higher but raising concerns about inflation re-acceleration.
US–China Relations:
Ongoing trade tensions over semiconductors and AI have led to sanctions on key Chinese tech firms.
Despite this, tech-heavy indices remain resilient due to domestic demand and AI sector optimism.
Global Monetary Policy Divergence:
While the Fed is dovish, the ECB has already started cutting rates, boosting global liquidity.
This divergence supports capital inflows into US equities, especially defensive and industrial sectors represented in the Dow.
📉 2. Technical Analysis (Smart Money Concepts)
The daily chart of US30, as annotated, reflects a clear transition from a bearish structure to a bullish regime, validated by Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology:
🔄 Market Structure Shift
Bearish Trend: Price was forming Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) into early 2025.
Change of Character (ChoCH): A significant bullish shift occurred with a closure above 42842, invalidating the prior LH and suggesting institutional buying.
Break of Structure (BOS): Followed by a clean higher high, reinforcing the bullish momentum.
🧱 Key SMC Levels & Zones
Buy Zone (Demand):
Between 41,600 and 41,800, this region aligns with:
A previous Higher Low (HL)
A visible Fair Value Gap (FVG)/Imbalance
Psychological support zone
Expected to be a strong institutional demand zone for a long setup.
IDM (Intermediate Demand Mitigation):
Minor liquidity grab possible before retest of buy zone.
An early sign of bullish intent may appear here.
Bearish Invalidation Level:
41,179 is the key structural level.
A daily closure below 41,179 would invalidate bullish bias and trigger a bearish BOS.
📈 Trend & Liquidity Outlook
Liquidity Pools:
Sell-side liquidity rests below recent HLs, particularly near IDM and the Buy Zone.
Buy-side liquidity above recent HH (~43,800) is the next target if price rebounds.
Trendline Support:
Ascending trendline from April continues to hold.
Acts as dynamic support intersecting the Buy Zone in late June.
Targets:
TP1: 43,000 (recent swing high)
TP2: 43,800–44,000 (liquidity magnet zone)
Final Supply Zone: 45,078 (historical resistance, visible on chart)
📌 Scenario Planning (SMC-Based)
Primary (Bullish) Scenario:
Price retraces into Buy Zone (41,600–41,800).
Forms bullish engulfing or displacement candle.
Entry long → Target 43,800+, SL below 41,179.
Alternate (Bearish) Scenario:
Price closes below 41,179 (breaks structure).
Bias flips to bearish.
Next support zone lies around 40,300–40,500.
NOTE: ONLY FOR EDUCATIONAL NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
US30 POTENTIAL SETUPUS30 Analysis
Fundamental Analysis:
The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) continues to face turbulence as global and domestic factors interplay. Recently, several key macroeconomic and geopolitical developments have influenced sentiment:
FOMC Outlook: The Federal Reserve’s decision to pause interest rate hikes amidst easing inflation suggests a more dovish stance. However, labor market resilience and retail sales indicate lingering strength in consumer demand.
Geopolitical Risk – Iran-Israel Conflict: The renewed tensions in the Middle East—especially between Iran and Israel—have heightened risk sentiment. Oil prices are sensitive to the conflict, indirectly pressuring inflation and causing volatility in equity markets.
US Economic Indicators:
CPI (Consumer Price Index): Showed moderate deceleration, aligning with the Fed’s inflation target.
Unemployment Rate: Remains low, strengthening confidence in the soft-landing narrative.
Manufacturing and PMI Data: Indicate a slowdown, showing a mild contraction phase in industrial activity.
These mixed signals are feeding into a cautious yet opportunity-laden market environment for indices like US30.
Technical Analysis (SMC - Smart Money Concepts):
Current Market Structure:
The price recently broke structure (BOS) to the upside after a series of higher lows and equal highs.
It’s now in a pullback phase, showing a classic inducement pattern where early liquidity is grabbed below recent equal lows.
Key Zones:
Buy Zone: Marked between 41,460 to 41,357 (H1 FVG) , which lies just above the protected low at 41,150.
A sweep of equal lows followed by confirmation (e.g., BOS on lower timeframe like H4) would validate a long entry.
Risk Management:
Stop-loss: Below 41,150, signaling bearish intent if broken (CHOCH – Change of Character).
Take-profit Target: Upwards toward 42,911, aligning with previous highs and order block inefficiencies.
Bearish Scenario: A daily closure below 41,150 would invalidate the bullish setup and suggest a deeper retracement toward the next key support near 40,636.
NOTE: Not a financial advice only for educational purpose
DowJones bullish breakout supported at 42240Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 43200
Resistance Level 2: 43544
Resistance Level 3: 43900
Support Level 1: 42240
Support Level 2: 41740
Support Level 3: 41280
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TOP IS NOT IN YET (MORE UPSIDE AFTER THE MINOR CORRECTIONS)We discussed the 5-year bull cycle that starts off every 20-year cycle. We identified that the current 5-year bull cycle will be one of the wildest in the history of the DJIA market by virtue of the current energy level within the log expansion. We will start a new progressive series to discuss the current 20-year cycle in motion.
First we will look closely at these three different 20-year cycles
From the three cycles we can identify a peculiar recurring structure, that is, after the approximately 5th year top we have a wild decline that averagely bottoms below the starting price. We will not dwell much on this cycle as it's not the current cycle in progress. Between these cycles is an (Alternate Cycle) that also has a similar fractal construction.
The first two alternate cycles directly lie between the cycles identified earlier and have a similar fractal. The most striking identity of these alternate cycles is that the origin point is the lowest point within the 20 year trend. The correction from the 5th year top is not so steep and never goes below the origin
The 1942/1962 cycle lies between the 1921/1942 and 1962/1982 cycles
The 1982/2002 cycle lies between the 1962/1982 and 2002/2022 cycles
This means the next alternate 20-year cycle is the 2022/2042 cycle which will lie between 2002/2022 and 2042/2062 cycles. From the internal construction of this cycle we can dive deeper and model the structure forward in both price and time. Example, the vertical price axis for the 1942/1962 cycle was (+648.61 pts) and total horizontal time elapsed was (+1052 wks).
We have a (648.61 x 1052) structure showing a perfect golden ratio of price and time
(1052 / 648.61) = 1.6219
1982/2002 cycle had price axis = 1098.03 pts and time = 1052 wks
We have approximately a 1098.03 x 1052 square of price and time
By observing the cumulative growth pattern we can make projection of the current cycle in progress. We would go through the growth gradually and identify price and time resistances as price action progresses. Please check back as we build step by step the growth structure of the current cycle.
Trade safe
DowJones INTRADAY key trading levelsKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 43200
Resistance Level 2: 43550
Resistance Level 3: 43900
Support Level 1: 42240
Support Level 2: 41740
Support Level 3: 41280
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DJI This is 2hrly chart of DJI
looking at the chart ,
I sense this structure of EW ...
and looks this whole move has been corrective wave...
going forward...
DJI is 43185
below 42950, I would be looking for 36.5k as my target with recent high as my sl ...
Just a View!!
Vedang:)
Discliamer: Chart is for study purpose only!!
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index - 4h Chart (FOREXCOM)4-hour chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (US30) shows the price movement from late June to early July 2025. The current value is 43,057.7, reflecting a slight increase of +78.0 (+0.18%). The chart highlights key price levels, including a resistance zone around 43,324.1 and a support zone near 42,875.8, with recent price action showing a breakout above the resistance level.
The Dow Jones Index reboundsUS indices rebounded following the US president’s announcing a ceasefire deal in the Middle East, which brought some optimism to the markets and among investors, positively impacting US markets in particular.
The Dow Jones Index rose at the start of this week by approximately 2.62%, reaching a new high above the 42,711 level, which represents the last lower high recorded by the market. A breakout above this level could indicate a shift in trend from bearish to bullish.
If the price pulls back to the 42,025.62 level, it would be considered a corrective move, with a possible upward rebound from that level aiming to target 42,719.99 and potentially continue the bullish trend in the long term.
However, if the price falls below the 41,755.45 level and a four-hour candle closes below it, the positive scenario mentioned above would be invalidated.
US30 next target releasedNo comment needed. All information is in the chart analysis.
Steps to follow:
Analyze yourself.
Take the position with SL and Take Profits.
Wait, it may take a couple of days, so take a break and step away from the screen from time to time, just like I do :)
Get the result.
I will update the trade every day.
Like, comment with your good mood or viewpoint, share with your circle. It’s together that we get stronger!
Good trades, Traders!
The golden bear
US 30 Potential longUS30 – Wyckoff Spring Setup for NY Session | Intraday Execution Play
Price rallied in the London session with rising volume and structure breaks —
Now we’re anticipating a classic Wyckoff spring scenario just ahead of NY open.
📍 Key Expectations:
Sweep of intraday support around 43,482
Strong buyer reaction (spring confirmation)
Expansion into the 43,600+ zone — possible 1.5R+ continuation
⚠️ Volume buildup + stop placement below prior structure make this zone ripe for a fakeout → reversal.
I’m watching for a quick flush below the line → wick rejection → engulfing confirmation to trigger longs.
This is a trap trade — smart money baits shorts, I’m betting they get squeezed.
🔫 Entry: On confirmation after spring
📉 Invalidation: Below the spring low
🎯 Target: 43,610 zone and trailing after break of 43,570
Let them walk into the trap. Then pull the trigger.
US30 Testing Key Resistance ZonesUS30 has shown renewed bullish momentum with a strong breakout candle above the 42,800.00 resistance. After consolidating for several sessions, price surged upward, now hovering near the 43,800.00 zone—an important resistance level from prior highs.
Support at: 42,800.00 🔽 | 41,900.00 🔽
Resistance at: 43,800.00 🔼 | 44,362.79 🔼 | 45,011.92 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: A daily close above 43,800.00 opens the path to test 44,362.79 and potentially 45,011.92.
🔽 Bearish: Rejection from current level and a break below 42,800.00 may trigger a pullback toward 41,900.00.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.