DJ30 trade ideas
Fundamental Analysis of Tariffs and Donald Trump/ Herbert HooverHerbert Hoover and Donald Trump are very similar in their policies. Both are Republicans that want to impose high tariffs. I believe the market is seeing past history and are bracing.
Looking at the timeline of the 1929 Depression, which Hoover caused due to his tariffs, I am seeing similar action today. I don't know if a wide spread depression will hit again but it is quite funny that we are rapidly approaching the 100 year anniversary of the 1929 Crash (2029). Both times had a Republican president, a Republican controlled House and Senate, High Tariffs. It seems like history does have a way of repeating itself.
I too am bracing for the last rally to 46,000 before something may happen. I don't know if anything will or not. Key levels to watch for is a massive slice through 41,000 marked in red, a pullback into the bottom and a downtrend reversal. This is on the weekly chart and so, price action takes time to unfold.
Hanzo | US30 15 min Breaks Structure โ Confirm the Next Move๐ US30 โ The Way of the Silent Blade
โญ๏ธ We do not predictโwe calculate.
We do not reactโwe execute.
Patience is our shield. Precision is our sword.
๐ฉธ market is a battlefield where hesitation means death. The untrained fall into traps, chasing shadows, believing in illusions. But we are not the crowd. We follow no signal but the one left behind by Smart Money. Their footprints are our way forward.
๐ฉธ Bullish Structure Shatters -
Key Break Confirms the Path โ 41480
reasons
Liquidity Swwep
liquidity / choch
key level / multi retest before
weekly / monthly zone
๐ฉธ Bearish Structure Shatters
Key Break Confirms the Path โ 41270 Zone
our reversal always at key level
even a reversal area is well studded
reasons
Liquidity Swwep
liquidity / choch
key level / multi retest before
weekly / monthly zone
๐ป This is the threshold where the tides shift. If price pierces this level with authority, it is no accidentโit is designed. The liquidity pool above has been set, and the institutions will claim their prize. Volume must confirm the strike. A clean break, a strong push, and the path is set.
Watch the volume. Watch the momentum. Strike without doubt
DOW JONES: MA50-100 Bearish Cross says we've bottomed.Dow Jones is almost neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.171, MACD = -608.620, ADX = 62.568), rising aggressively since last week. Technically that was the bottom no just on the 8 month Channel Up but also on the LL trendline. We've seen the very same LL bottom on the October 2023 and March 2023 lows, all of which had oversold 1D RSIs. The 1D MA50-100 Bearish Cross marked those bottoms and today we've completed a new one. Technically the index can rise as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 49,000).
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US30 Trade Outlook โ 17/03/2025๐จ US30 Trade Outlook โ 17/03/2025 ๐จ
๐ Market Structure & Key Levels
US30 remains in a downtrend, but price is currently consolidating near the EMAs. The market is at a decision point, with a potential breakout or rejection looming.
๐ Key Observations:
โ
Bearish Trend โ Price still below major EMAs.
โ
Key Resistance โ 41,255 - 41,400 is a crucial supply zone.
โ
Support Holding? โ 41,000 is acting as a short-term floor.
๐ฏ Trade Plan:
๐ป Short if rejection at 41,255, targeting 40,800 - 40,600.
๐น Long if breakout & retest above 41,400, targeting 41,600 - 41,800.
โก๏ธ Patience is key. Wait for confirmations! ๐ฅ
Dow Holds Steady Above 41,000Unlike the Nasdaq and SP500, Dow did not trace the full potential of its double top formation between 2024 and 2025 peaks, yet in a similar manner to the US indices, it rebounded from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the May 2024-Jan 2025 uptrend, coinciding with oversold levels on the 3-Day RSI previously seen in October 2023.
The Dowโs rebound from the 40,660 low aligns with the bottom end of the duplicated channel of its respected up-trend between May 2024 and Jan 2025, strengthening positive rebound opportunities in tandem with the broader market sentiment.
Should the Dow hold above the 41,000-mark, levels 41,700, 42,600, and 43,400 may come back to play. From the downside, a clean close back below the 40,600-mark can extend losses in the direction of the double top formationโs target, aligning with possible support levels at 40,200, 39,500, and 38,700.
Key Events to Watch:
- Trade war Developments
- FOMC Meeting on Wednesday
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
US30 (Dow Jones) 4H Analysis โ Bearish Outlook Ahead?Trend Analysis:
๐ธ The market is in a downtrend since early February.
๐ธ Lower highs and lower lows indicate strong bearish momentum.
๐ธ A recent break below support suggests further downside pressure.
๐ Key Support & Resistance Zones:
๐ฃ Resistance Zone (~41,500 - 41,300):
๐บ Price tried to retest but failed = Bearish signal ๐ซ
๐ฃ Support Zone (~40,000 - 39,800):
๐ป A minor support area before the next big level.
๐ต Major Target (38,821):
๐ If price keeps falling, it could reach this level ๐ฝ
๐ Price Action & Prediction:
โ
Pullback to resistance โ ๐ Bears defending!
โ If rejection holds โ ๐ Drop expected towards 38,821.
๐ฆ A break above resistance? Trend might shift!
๐ Trading Idea:
๐ Short below resistance if rejection holds.
๐ Long only if resistance breaks convincingly.
โ ๏ธ Stay cautious! Watch for confirmations ๐๐
US30 1HR // 17 March AnalysisWe can see that BLACKBULL:US30 is in a downtrend on the 1HR timeframe.
The price is near the our trendline and has touched our area of resistance around the 41500.00 once. Looking for the price to approach the area of resistance as well as trendline and show a good rejection for potential sells.
A good target would be the 40750.00 area.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is purely for personal reference and record keeping and should be taken as educational material only, NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. I will not be responsible for profits or loses due to this analysis.
Bullish bounce?Dow Jones (US30) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 40,928.39
1st Support: 40,177.61
1st Resistance: 42,282.48
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US30 Rebounds from Key Support โ Bulls Eyeing New HighsKey Support & Trendline Confluence:
The price recently bounced off the long-term ascending trendline, which has been a strong support level since late 2023.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ($40,205) provided additional confluence for a potential reversal.
Resistance Levels & Breakout Potential:
Immediate Resistance: $42,000 โ A break above this level could confirm a bullish continuation.
Major Target: $45,065 โ If momentum sustains, this all-time high could be tested soon.
Bullish Scenario:
A successful breakout above $42,000 could lead to an accelerated move toward $45,065 and beyond.
The trendlineโs support indicates that bulls remain in control, and the recent rebound suggests renewed buying interest.
Risk Management & Confirmation:
Bullish confirmation: Sustained price action above $41,500 with strong volume.
Invalidation level: A breakdown below $40,000 could indicate a potential trend reversal.
Conclusion & Strategy:
Short-Term: Monitor price action around $42,000 for breakout confirmation.
Mid-Term: Expect a bullish move toward $45,000+ if the trendline holds.
Long-Term: If price breaks all-time highs, further upside potential is possible.
๐ Bullish Confirmation Above $42,000 | โ ๏ธ Caution Below $40,000
US30 Falling Wedge Breakout Setup โ Bullish Momentum Building?๐ US30 (Dow Jones) Falling Wedge | Bullish Breakout Incoming? ๐
๐ Chart Analysis:
US30 is currently trading within a falling wedge pattern on the 1-hour timeframe. This formation typically signals a potential bullish breakout as selling pressure weakens.
๐ Key Levels to Watch:
โ
Breakout Zone: ~41,600 (upper wedge resistance)
โ
Next Resistance: 42,830 (100 SMA on 4H timeframe)
โ
Support: 40,800 (lower wedge support)
๐ฏ Trade Idea:
A confirmed breakout above 41,600 with strong volume could push price toward 42,830 and beyond.
Failure to break out may result in further consolidation within the wedge before a breakout attempt.
๐ข Whatโs Your Take?
Do you see a breakout happening soon, or will US30 remain stuck in this wedge a bit longer? Drop your thoughts in the comments!