GBPAUD Price Outlook: Anticipating a Bearish RetracementAnticipating a Price Drop in GBPAUD
I expect the price to decline from this level as part of a retracement into the discount zone, potentially setting up for a bullish continuation on the higher time frame, which remains bullish.
Analyzing the chart using a market structure approach, I anticipate a downward move from this level, and my stop-loss is clearly defined.
At this price level, there appears to be resistance and buy-side liquidity, which I expect to trigger a liquidity raid, driving the price lower.
I haven't set a specific take-profit level but personally aim for a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio.
Here's my projected outlook for GBPAUD as of December 31, 2024.
Thank you!
GBPAUD trade ideas
GBP/AUD SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello, Friends!
GBP/AUD pair is trading in a local uptrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 8H timeframe the pair is going down. The pair is oversold because the price is close to the lower band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to buy the pair with the lower BB line acting as support. The next target is 2.023 area.
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GBPAUD BuyI believe we are still in an uptrend to 2.16XXX.
On the lower timeframe, price had so much momentum to the upside, we did not have a fibonacci retracement of at least 38.2. Price stalled out at the 1.18 and 1.27 D extension and sold to the 61.8 level.
I believe the 4HR fib is still active and needs to complete.
I think our next stop is 2.063XX to finish out the current sequence.
4HR and Daily stochastic are in the buy zones.
GBPAUD BuyI believe we are still in an uptrend to 2.16XXX.
On the lower timeframe, price had so much momentum to the upside, we did not have a fibonacci retracement of at least 38.2. Price stalled out at the 1.18 and 1.27 D extension and sold to the 61.8 level.
I believe the 4HR fib is still active and needs to complete.
I think our next stop is 2.063XX to finish out the current sequence.
4HR and Daily stochastic are in the buy zones.
GBP/AUD Analysis: Navigating the Current Market Trends.Overview: The GBP/AUD pair has experienced a notable decline, dropping from 2.0300 to around 2.0200 over the past month. This movement can be largely attributed to the dovish stance of the Bank of England and subpar UK economic data.
Technical Snapshot:
Candlestick Patterns: Recent patterns are predominantly bearish, with several red candles indicating a downward trend.
Moving Averages: Both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are trending downward.
RSI and MACD: RSI is below 50, suggesting bearish momentum. MACD shows a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downtrend.
Fundamental Drivers:
Bank of England's Dovish Outlook: The BoE's decision to hold interest rates steady, coupled with a dovish outlook, has put pressure on the GBP.
Weak UK Economic Data: The UK's Q3 GDP growth missed expectations, contributing to the negative sentiment surrounding the GBP.
AUD Stability: The AUD has maintained stability, bolstered by positive economic data from Australia and a strong commodity market.
Latest News and Analysis:
GBP/AUD Uptrend Loses Momentum: The pair initially gained momentum but lost it due to risk-off sentiment in thin holiday trading. The next Bank of England meeting is set for February 6, with market participants pricing in over 52 basis points of cuts in 2025.
RBA Meeting Minutes in Focus: The primary catalyst for movement this week will likely be the publication of the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest meeting minutes from its December interest rate meeting. Any dovish hints could undermine the AUD.
Technical Signals Bullish: Technical indicators suggest a bullish setup with the RSI at 62 and daily momentum studies trending up. Immediate resistance is located at 2.0256, with strong support at 2.0124.
Trading Considerations:
Short Positions: The current bearish trend suggests potential short positions on GBP/AUD, with entry points around 2.0200 and stop-loss at 2.0300.
Key Levels: Monitor support at 2.0150 and resistance at 2.0250. A break below 2.0150 could indicate further downside potential.
Recommendation: Buy on dips around 2.0160 with a stop loss of 2.0100 and a target price of 2.0260.
Market Sentiment: The market remains cautious, and upcoming UK data releases will play a crucial role in determining the future direction of the British pound.
Heading into pullback resistance?GBP/AUD is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level which is an overlap support.
Pivot: 2.0273
1st Support: 1.0061
1st Resistance: 2.0391
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPAUD TRADE Idea: SHORT | SELL (01/01/25)Happy New Year all! This trade idea is really for a long overall but while the long is setting up we can always take the sell especially seeing as price is in premium. Recent price has failed to break the high. I expect that high to get swept and for price to come down to the next potential entry for the long.
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?GBP/AUD is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the overlap support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 2.0273
1st Support: 2.00612
1st Resistance: 2.03910
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
gbpaud sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
Strategic GBPAUD EntryGBPAUD is currently in a strong uptrend, exhibiting a classic pattern of higher highs and higher lows. At the current price, there are no signs of bearish divergence. The pair has already tested the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and may attempt to retest this area, offering a potential buying opportunity. It is recommended to position your stop-loss at the previous higher low, ensuring adherence to proper risk management practices.
GBPAUD - Corrective structure in developmentGBPAUD is forming a corrective structure within the HTF to indicate the next bearish move down. On the LTF we can see the developing structure is awaiting a 3rd touch to complete this bearish pattern.
I will look for an entry only if we get a reversal impulse followed by a LTF correction with targets to the previous swing lows.
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Stop Loss ๐: Using the 1H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal ๐ฏ: 2.05500
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๐ฐ Based on the fundamental analysis ๐๏ธ, I would conclude that the GBP/AUD pair is: Bullish
Reasons:
Interest rate differential: The Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate (3.5%) is higher than the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate (2.85%), making the GBP more attractive to investors.
Economic growth: The UK's GDP growth (1.1%) is relatively stable, while Australia's growth (1.7%) is more dependent on external factors, such as China's economic growth.
Trade balance: The UK's trade deficit is a concern, but Australia's trade surplus is largely dependent on commodity exports, which are subject to price volatility.
Commodity prices: Australia's economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports, and a decline in commodity prices could negatively impact the AUD.
However, it's essential to consider the following risks:
Brexit uncertainty: The ongoing Brexit process could lead to GBP volatility and impact the pair.
Global economic slowdown: Weakening economic growth in Europe, China, and other regions could impact the UK's exports and growth.
RBA's monetary policy: The RBA's dovish stance and potential interest rate cuts could support the AUD.
Bullish Scenario:
Stronger UK economic data, such as GDP growth and inflation, supports the GBP
Commodity prices decline, negatively impacting the AUD
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