GBPAUD-SELL strategy 9 Hourly chartThe pair moved like a bullet, and it has harmed many on its way. The RSI's which are important criteria are even higher than the October run up. The current pattern is a false BULL FLAG and this usually suggests a correction back to the base of the pole again. That is why, regardless where we stop, the return level will be roughly the same.
It even appears we have forgotten the commodities, and metals, support the pair. If you look at AUDCAD, it makes no sense at all, a weak OIL price and stronger and holding gold price should strengthen the AUD. so all in all, a good case we should correct.
Strategy ADD SELL @ 1.9920-1.9980 area or higher, and place profit near 1.9678.
GBPAUD trade ideas
GBP_AUD (250 Pips)The GBP/AUD pair has recently hit a high of 1.99742 and is retreating from resistance for the third time in 12 months. Here's a detailed analysis for the coming 3 days:
Fundamental Analysis
The GBP/AUD pair is influenced by several factors:
1. Economic Data: Upcoming US jobs data and Federal Reserve rate signals will likely impact both currencies.
2. Central Bank Policies: The Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policies will play a crucial role in determining the pair's direction.
3. Global Risk Sentiment: As the AUD is considered a risk-sensitive currency, global economic conditions and risk appetite will affect its performance against the GBP.
Technical Analysis
The GBP/AUD pair is showing signs of potential bullish momentum, but faces significant resistance:
1. Resistance Levels: The pair is encountering strong resistance around the 2.00 level, having failed to break through this level for the third time in 12 months.
2. Support Levels: Key support levels to watch are 1.97580 (yesterday's low) and 1.96300.
3. Moving Averages: The pair is trading above its 200-day moving average, indicating a long-term bullish trend.
4. Momentum Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD are showing upward momentum, but may be approaching overbought territory.
Short-term Outlook (Next 3 Days)
1. Bearish Scenario: Failure to break the 2.00 level could lead to a pullback towards 1.97500 and possibly 1.96300.
2. Range-bound Trading: Given the recent rejection at resistance, the pair may consolidate between 1.97500 and 2.00000 in the short term.
Key Factors to Watch
1. US Non-Farm Payrolls: This data release could cause significant volatility in both GBP and AUD against the USD, indirectly affecting GBP/AUD.
2. Australian Economic Data: Any surprises in Australian economic indicators could impact the AUD's strength.
3. UK Political and Economic Developments: News related to UK economic performance or policy changes could influence GBP strength.
Traders should remain cautious and use appropriate risk management strategies, especially given the pair's recent approach to a significant resistance level. The outcome of the US jobs report and central bank communications in the coming days could provide clearer direction for this currency pair.
GBPAUD Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPAUD.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.988.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.970 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GBPAUD to turnaround?GBPAUD - 24h expiry
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Bespoke resistance is located at 1.9850.
We look to Sell at 1.9850 (stop at 1.9900)
Our profit targets will be 1.9710 and 1.9680
Resistance: 1.9850 / 1.9900 / 1.9930
Support: 1.9700 / 1.9600 / 1.9500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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GBPAUD - Short Plan on Fundamentals & Technical BasesFundamental Analysis:
Key indicators, including the LEI and both Endogenous and Exogenous factors, have been steadily declining on a weekly basis. This indicates a weakening outlook for the GBP against the AUD, supporting a bearish perspective on the pair.
Seasonality:
Historically, GBPAUD tends to exhibit a bullish bias during the first week of December, suggesting a potential seasonal opportunity for taking long positions.
COT Report:
Flip data suggests a shift in market sentiment from a bullish to a bearish bias.
Technical Analysis:
The GBPAUD has been in an uptrend, forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) on the 1H timeframe. However, it's showing signs of bearish divergence, aligning with a previous bearish divergence. This creates a potential shorting opportunity if the price breaks below the most recent lower low.
Conclusion:
Even though December typically signals a seasonal buy for GBPAUD, the shift in COT bias, weaker GBP fundamentals, and bearish divergence forming near the upper trendline point to a bearish setup. Here's my shorting plan:
Entry Price: 1.97185 (Sell Stop)
Stop Loss: 1.98440
Take Profit: 1.9593
GBPAUD MARKET ANALYSIS AND PRICE PREDICTIONGBPAUD has been reordered at 50% Fib at the renegotiation zone, price has mitigated an order block and has cleared off the Buyside liquidity. Price is presently consolidating around the mitigated order block for a retracement to mitigated and unmitigated order block around the renegotiation and reorder zone.
The retracement decision stands, market will break structure downward and give the Bears a short term trade, after mitigation, the Bulls will have any chance to go long and enjoy the ride up again.
Entry, take profit and stop loss are all well stated on the chat.
Good Luck Guys!
GBPAUD-SELL strategy - 6 Hourly chart GANN SQThe pair has tested 1.9795 the top of GANN resistance, and fell back to 1.9730 and now we are somewhere slightly higher at 1.9755 of this writing. Overall we wilo see a lower level again and I suspect 1.9665 test. GOLD is firm, and inflation numbers in Australia caused the spike, but we should not forget UK likely will have 4 rates cuts next year, which means the cross is overdone short-term.
Strategy SELL @ 1.9750-1.9785 and take profit @ 1.9668 for now.
GBP/AUD finalising bull run before we test ResistanceHi dear traders, we are joining with the GBP/AUD after it already confirmed it's uptrend structure so we can extract a decent amount of pips until we go to the next Strong Resistance line and we find the proper direction as to where would we follow up with this Currency Pair.
Current entry 1.95250
Target : 1.96300
When we go to a point of surpassing the Resistance Line we would revisit this pair so we can see if there is a safe landing into extracting more value before the next structure formulates.
Bearish drop?GBP/AUD is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.9787
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 88% Fibonacci retracement,
Stop loss: 1.9878
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.9650
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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GBPAUD-SELL strategy 6 hourly chart GANN SQThe pair spiked this morning, and broke through 1.9617 - and previously 1.9576. Now we are in resistance area, which could be strong levels to watch. It is very overbought short-term,and move back towards 1.9575 is possible again.
Strategy SELL @ 1.9690-1.9720 and take profit near 1.9607 for now.
GBPAUD TO 1.9600 TODAY?Trading Plan
1. Baseline Scenario:
- Macro-Fundamental Bias: Neutral to Dovish . The RBA is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates, with markets anticipating a quarter-point rate cut by May 2025 and rates ending 2025 at 3.85%. This expectation is based on the need for more progress in reducing core inflation to the 2-3% target range.
- Short Term Sentiment Bias: Bearish . The AUD is under pressure due to its role as a proxy for the Chinese yuan, influenced by US tariff risks and ongoing economic uncertainties in China. Additionally, Australia's current account deficit and weak export data contribute to the negative sentiment.
2. Risk Event Baseline :
- Market Expectations :
- Australian GDP (QoQ) Q3: Consensus at 0.5% (previous: 0.2%).
- Australian GDP (YoY) Q3: Consensus at 1.1% (previous: 1.0%).
- China Caixin Services PMI (Nov): Consensus at 52.5 (previous: 52.0).
3. Surprise Scenarios:
- Negative Surprise :
- Australian GDP: If GDP figures come in below expectations, it could exacerbate the bearish sentiment, leading to further AUD selling.
- China Caixin Services PMI: If the PMI is weaker than expected, it could further pressure the AUD due to its correlation with the Chinese economy.
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?GBP/AUD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.9613
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.9784
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.9381
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBPAUD Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the GBPAUD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.9533
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.9439
My Stop Loss - 1.9597
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBP/AUD: Downside Bias Intensifies Amid Completion of Head and STechnical Analysis
The GBP/AUD pair currently exhibits a downside bias, underpinned by the confirmed head and shoulders pattern. If buyers fail to overcome resistance at 1.95451, further declines towards the outlined support levels are likely.
Key Events to Watch
While Tuesday does not feature any major scheduled events specifically impacting GBP/AUD, market participants are closely monitoring Wednesday's release of Australia's economic growth data and the United Kingdom's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures. These data points could significantly affect volatility in the pair, particularly if the results diverge substantially from consensus expectations.
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