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GBPCAD trade ideas

GBPCAD In Bearish Trend (Fundament + Technical Analysis) This analysis anticipates a bearish movement in GBP/CAD , supported by a combination of seasonality, interest rate policy changes, and market positioning: Fundamental Analysis: 1- Seasonality Impact: Historical data suggests that the GBP tends to weaken during the early part of August. This seasonal trend is observed year after year, making it a reliable indicator for traders. The current price movement aligns with this seasonal pattern, providing a solid foundation for a bearish outlook. 2. Interest Rate Cuts: Recently, the Bank of England has hinted at potential interest rate cuts to counteract slowing economic growth and persistent inflation concerns. Interest rate cuts generally reduce the attractiveness of a currency because they lead to lower returns on investments denominated in that currency. As the market starts pricing in these anticipated rate cuts, we’ve seen a noticeable shift from bullish to bearish sentiment for GBP. This shift is significant because it indicates that the broader market is now expecting GBP to weaken further, which directly impacts pairs like GBP/CAD. 3. COT Report - The Institutional Perspective: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report offers insight into the positions of various market participants. The latest report shows that non-commercial traders, often referred to as "smart money," have begun reducing their long positions in GBP. This reduction is a clear signal that institutional investors, who typically have a longer-term view and access to more comprehensive data, are expecting GBP to decline. The decrease in long positions adds a layer of bearish sentiment to the market, further supporting our downside expectations. Technical Analysis: Precision in Entry Points Entry 1 - Break of the Higher Low: The first entry opportunity arises if the price breaks below the most recent higher low on the 4H timeframe. A break of this level would indicate that the bearish momentum is strong enough to push prices lower. Entering at this point allows us to join the trend early, capturing a larger portion of the move. Entry 2 - Retracement Entry: Often, after breaking a key support level, the price will retrace back to retest this level, which now acts as resistance. This retracement provides a second entry opportunity. By entering at this point, we can secure a better position with a more favorable risk-reward ratio. This entry is particularly attractive for traders who prefer to wait for confirmation of the trend before committing to a trade. 1:3 Risk-Reward Ratio Target
Short
by shayanshah1
2
GBPCAD Waiting for the 1D MA200 to confirm the bottom.The GBPCAD pair broke this week below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is (including today) on a 2 day green streak. However this is technically not convincing for us to buy as despite holding the Internal Higher Lows trend-line, it is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) that has confirmed the major Higher Lows (bottoms) of the 11-month Channel Up. In fact, it was a similar Internal Higher Lows trend-line that broke on April 01 2024 and despite a short-term rebound, broke downwards to confirm a bottom on the 1D MA200. As a result, we are waiting for that ideal technical opportunity to long and target 1.8000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1
1:5 Risk to rewad 7 Dimension Buy setup For GBPCAD Core Analysis Method Smart Money Concepts 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Time Frame: H4 1: Swing Structure: The structure is totally bullish with proper BOS, taking two inducements. The corrective swing move with 4 pullbacks is almost done, indicating an upside reversal or impulsive move is about to start. All POIs, OBs, SOBs, BBs, FVGs, and LIQs have been mitigated. The current price is in the discounted zone, with support and demand also present. 2: Pattern 🟢 CHART PATTERNS Reversal: Will monitor for any bullish patterns forming; none observed yet. 🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS Record session and shrinking candle patterns are forming and finalizing themselves at the POI. 3: Volume 🟢 A massive volume was observed during the corrective move, but it has significantly decreased, indicating profit-taking or a trap for sellers. 4: Momentum RSI 🟢 In the sell zone with a range shift and divergence at the top of the move, indicating weaker bullish control. Observing what happens at the POI. 5: Volatility Bollinger Bands 🟢 After contraction, a squeeze breakout and walking on the band conditions are fulfilled. The great expansion is also about to end, indicating that bearish-side volatility is ending. The price may do a small consolidation at this level, and with the support of the bullish structure, the next volatility might go towards the bullish side. 6: Strength ADX Total sideways at this point. 7: Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (because momentum is not supporting this setup yet, but all other parameters indicate an initial bullish setup) ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4 ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bullish ☑️ POI: Extreme Order Flow 💡 Decision: Buy limit 🚀 Entry: 1.7406 ✋ Stop loss: 1.7257 🎯 Take profit: 1.8161 😊 Risk to reward Ratio: 5RR 🕛 Expected Duration: 15 days SUMMARY: The analysis suggests a buy position based on Smart Money Concepts methodology, with structure, patterns, volume, momentum, volatility, strength, and sentiment indicating a potential bullish move. However, the momentum is currently not fully supportive, so caution is advised.
Long
by Optimum369
2
GBPCAD Short to 1.73GBPCAD after forming a Distribution Channel between 1.77-1.78, has moved to a weak demand zone. It is weak because the reaction from Demand is minimal. This is reflected in the VSA , with very low volume. No Buyers are defending the 1.7575 level. Real Demand is likely to be positioned at 1.73, which is adjacent to a significant S/R level. The sellers have been in control, and likely to maintain it for some time. The bias is Bearish ( cross of price below 200MAV and RSI printing below 50 ), as is the intraday Order Flow.
Short
by Umlingo
GBPCAD My Opinion! BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for GBPCAD is below: The market is trading on 1.7539 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 1.7656 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.7463 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Fibonacci : The Best Trading Tool, How To Use It Correctly in this video i am sharing with u all my secrets in using the Fibonacci Tool. in my trading journey this was the best most precise trading tool i have ever used. it has so many advantages such as: 1- giving u the entry point. 2- easy and precise stop loss placements. 3- early indication if the wave has failed. watch the video and an don't forget to take a screenshot of the levels settings, Good luck all.
Education
by Forex_Wealth_Factory
4
GBPCAD Short PositionSeasonality Analysis: Historical seasonality trends indicate a bearish pattern for GBPCAD during this period. This suggests that the currency pair tends to decline during this time of the year. Range Breakout: If the price breaks below a key support level in the current trading range, it confirms a bearish breakout. This indicates that the selling pressure is strong enough to push the price out of its previous range, potentially leading to further declines. RSI Bearish Divergence: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish divergence, meaning that while the price is making higher highs, the RSI is making lower highs. This is a signal that the upward momentum is weakening and a reversal or correction is likely.
Short
by SohailChaudhary
2
GBP/CAD Analysis: Key Levels and Market Sentiment📅 Let's dive into today's analysis, focusing on the GBP/CAD pair in the Forex market. 🗂 About the Pair: GBP/CAD represents the exchange rate between the British Pound and the Canadian Dollar. This pair is influenced by economic events and policies from both the United Kingdom and Canada, including interest rates, economic indicators, and geopolitical events. 📊 Weekly Timeframe Analysis On the weekly timeframe, GBP/CAD is trading within a significant range. The pair has recently encountered resistance around the 1.7813 level, which has acted as a strong barrier to further upward movement. The price has been rising steadily along a trendline, suggesting an overall bullish sentiment over the longer term. Resistance Levels: The major resistance levels are at 1.7813 and 1.8239. Support Levels: The crucial support levels are around 1.7289 and 1.6086. If GBP/CAD can break above the 1.7813 resistance level, we could see a bullish push towards the next resistance at 1.8239. However, if the pair fails to sustain above 1.7289, it could see a bearish reversal, potentially testing lower support levels. 📊 Daily Timeframe Analysis In the daily chart, GBP/CAD has been showing signs of consolidation around the 1.7642 level. The price has dipped below the recent high of 1.7813, indicating possible short-term bearish pressure. The price action is testing the support level at 1.7349, with the 35-day SMA providing additional support at this level. If the price can hold above 1.7349, we could see a rebound towards 1.7752. However, a break below this level could lead to further declines towards 1.7278. 📊 RSI Oscillator The RSI across different timeframes indicates mixed signals: Weekly RSI: Approximately 61.69, suggesting that the pair is in a relatively strong position, but not yet overbought. Daily RSI: Approximately 49.59, indicating a neutral stance with a slight lean towards bearish momentum. 4H RSI: Around 39.75, showing bearish conditions and suggesting a potential for short-term selling pressure. The RSI levels suggest that while there is some selling pressure, the pair is not yet in oversold territory. Traders should watch for potential reversals or continuations based on RSI movements. 📉 Conclusion Given the current analysis, GBP/CAD is at a crucial juncture. The pair's movement above or below the key levels mentioned will dictate the next trend direction. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios. ⚠️ Please note that this is not financial advice. I'm simply introducing this analysis to you, and remember always to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor. 🫶If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a pair you'd like me to analyze next.
by itsparham96
3