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British Pound / Swiss Franc

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GBPCHF trade ideas

Retail is 86% Long on GBPCHF… But Smart Money Is Setting a Trap📊 1. RETAIL SENTIMENT Long Positions: 86% – Average Entry: 1.1196 Short Positions: 14% – Average Entry: 1.0999 Current Price: 1.1010 Analysis: Retail positioning is heavily skewed towards longs, with the average long entry significantly above the current market price. This creates vulnerability to downside pressure through stop-loss hunting or a bearish squeeze. Such extreme retail bias often acts as a contrarian signal: smart money may continue pushing the price lower to flush out retail traders before any meaningful reversal occurs. 🧾 2. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS – COT REPORT (June 10, 2025) 🔹 British Pound (GBP) Non-Commercials (Speculators): Net Long increasing by +7.4K → now at +51.6K Commercials (Hedgers): Net Short decreasing by -13.9K → now at -60.5K Total Open Interest: Decreased by -19K Interpretation: Speculators are maintaining strong long exposure on GBP, while commercials are covering some shorts—potentially signaling a short-term pause in bullish momentum. However, the drop in overall open interest suggests possible consolidation or short-term uncertainty. 🔹 Swiss Franc (CHF) Non-Commercials: Net Shorts reduced by -2.7K Commercials: Net Longs increased by +2.5K Total Open Interest: Increased by +5.6K Interpretation: The CHF is gaining strength. Commercial participants are increasing their long exposure while speculators reduce their shorts—this positive divergence supports a bullish outlook on CHF, especially against retail-heavy long pairs like GBP. 📈 3. CHF SEASONALITY – JUNE Average CHF Performance in June: 20-Year Avg: +0.0099 15-Year Avg: +0.0138 10-Year Avg: +0.0099 5-Year Avg: +0.0039 Analysis: Historically, June is a seasonally strong month for the Swiss Franc. This seasonal bias aligns with current macro conditions, reinforcing the bullish case for CHF. 📊 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Daily Chart) Pattern: Descending channel with a recent false breakdown and re-entry Key Support Zone: 1.0980–1.1000 → tested and defended with a bullish wick Target Resistance: 1.1170–1.1200 → prior retail cluster, supply zone, and average long entry Scenario: A confirmed breakout of the channel could trigger a short squeeze toward 1.1170–1.1200 📌 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK The current GBP/CHF setup is technically and sentimentally delicate. The price sits on a major daily demand zone, while sentiment and macro flows suggest downside pressure remains in play—but also allow room for a potential contrarian rally (short squeeze). 👉 Action Plan: Wait for intraday/daily confirmation: Go long above 1.1045 (breakout confirmation) → target 1.1170 Go short below 1.0980 (bearish continuation) → target 1.0860
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
GBPCHF Breaks Rising Wedge – Reversal Targets 1.0940 and 1.0815GBPCHF has broken down from a rising wedge formation on the 4H chart, signaling a shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. The pattern break comes near the 50% retracement level, with price now trading below ascending trendline support. With fundamental headwinds weighing on the British pound and safe-haven demand supporting the Swiss franc, the setup favors a short bias targeting the 1.0940 and 1.0815 zones. 🔍 Technical Analysis Pattern: Rising wedge → broken to the downside Breakout Confirmation: Price has closed below the wedge support (trendline) Key Support Levels: 1.0940 → 38.2% fib + previous structure support 1.0815 → 23.6% fib retracement + horizontal support zone 1.0608 → Full wedge base (longer-term target) Resistance / Invalidation: 1.1150 – a close back above this level invalidates the breakdown Candle Behavior: Bearish structure forming with lower highs Clean engulfing candle closed below wedge 📉 Bias: Bearish (confirmed technical reversal) 🌍 Fundamental Context 🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP) UK CPI expected to rise (3.3% forecast), which may limit BoE cuts, but not bullish enough to support GBP Political uncertainty resurfaces (Labour slipping in polls) BoE speakers are split; no clear support from policy 🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF) Safe-haven flows rising on: Global growth slowdown Tensions between U.S.–Iran Downgrade of U.S. debt → risk aversion favors CHF SNB remains cautious, but CHF gains defensive strength in risk-off conditions 🎯 Trade Setup Bias: Sell Entry Zone: 1.1080–1.1100 (breakout confirmation) Targets: TP1: 1.0940 TP2: 1.0815 TP3: 1.0608 (extension target) Stop Loss: Above 1.1150 ⚠️ Risk Factors CPI surprise tomorrow could cause GBP spikes — be cautious around the release If equities rally hard or CHF weakens globally, price could retest the wedge structure before falling BoE hawkish surprise could challenge short-term bearish bias 🧭 Conclusion GBP/CHF has broken out of a rising wedge — a classic bearish reversal signal. The technical break aligns with macro weakness in GBP and CHF strength in a risk-off environment. Short trades remain valid below 1.1150, targeting a drop to 1.0940 and 1.0815 in the coming sessions.
Short
by ultreosforex
10
NNFX GBPCHF Short Full SignalSignal: GBPCHF Short — Full Signal Context:Full Signal, price broke and closed below the zone signalling breakout Probability: Normal - Buyer bias still exists. Risk: 1% -> buyer bias flow in volume, strong signal breakout, other CHF long sentiment so reduce risk to potential split with AUDCHF breakout down the line. GBP short is potentially 3 days late from the original move in EURGBP R:R Plan: Potentially 5R if range allows, 75% scale-out at TP for low probability & drawdown management. Notes: Took this trade due to its breakout nature and full signal from the judge fortress algo. Other GBP Short setups coming from EURGBP Long (late ranged) and AUDCHF short (pending order for continuation if breaks out) so I only put 1% risk on CHF Long to make room for AUDCHF 0.5% later if it breaks the pending order.
Short
by RealJudgeFPV
3
GBPCHF Will Explode! BUY! My dear subscribers, GBPCHF looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 1.0989 pivot level. Bias - Bullish My Stop Loss - 1.0948 Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 1.1062 About Used Indicators: The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
2
Rectangle ChannelHey traders, here’s one to watch closely 👇 GBPCHF is consolidating in a rectangle channel structure, marked by clear highs and lows — a classic coiled spring waiting for resolution. 📌 Key Notes: Price has respected horizontal boundaries repeatedly We’ve now broken above the top of the range with a reaction off point D Both upside and downside breakouts remain valid — the key is confirmation 🔍 What to Watch: A surge in volume and close above 1.10142 or below 1.09510 will confirm breakout direction Fibs projected from XA and ABCD legs show both upside and downside targets Range extension levels already plotted for reference No prediction. Just structure and breakout readiness. — C. Dela | #TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros.
by TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros
GBPCHF continuation of selling pressure below 1.1070The GBPCHF currency pair continues to display a bearish outlook, in line with the prevailing downward trend. Recent price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially setting up for another move lower if resistance holds. Key Level: 1.1070 This zone, previously a consolidation area, now acts as a significant resistance level. Bearish Scenario (rejection at 1.1070): A failed test and rejection at 1.1070 would likely resume the bearish momentum. Downside targets include: 1.0910 – Initial support 1.0860 – Intermediate support 1.0810 – Longer-term support level Bullish Scenario (breakout above 1.1070): A confirmed breakout and daily close above 1.1070 would invalidate the bearish setup. In that case, potential upside resistance levels are: 1.1125 – First resistance 1.1240 – Further upside target Conclusion GBPCHF remains under bearish pressure, with the 1.1070 level acting as a key inflection point. As long as price remains below this level, the bias favors further downside. Traders should watch for price confirmation around that level to assess the next move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
GBPCHF Sell Opportunity: Strong Rejection Signals Across TF📉 Overview from Weekly Timeframe: Price was rejected strongly from key resistance zone and the 50EMA, forming a large bearish rejection candle. This signals a potential momentum shift to the downside after a prolonged rally. 📉 Daily Chart Explanation: Price has broken the ascending trendline and is now trading below the 50EMA, suggesting bearish control. Multiple rejection candles at the trendline retest indicate that sellers are defending the zone aggressively. 📉 4H Chart Explanation: The 4H chart confirms the bearish bias with a clean trendline break and sustained movement below the 50EMA. The structure now favors lower highs and lower lows. 🔎 Plan Bias: Bearish Entry: On pullback to broken trendline or 50EMA area (confluence zone) Targets: TP1: Recent swing low TP2: Weekly support zone Invalidation: Break and close above the 50EMA on 4H
Short
by Amitrading
1
GBPCHF BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISGBPCHF is currently forming a clean bullish flag pattern on the daily timeframe, signaling a potential continuation of the recent impulsive move. After a strong rally from the April lows, price has entered a controlled consolidation just below the 1.12 resistance zone. This structure is typical of a market that’s building momentum before the next leg higher. With key support around 1.10 holding firm, this area becomes a crucial demand zone, and we are now looking for a breakout from this flag formation toward the 1.15 target. From a fundamental perspective, the British Pound is gaining traction ahead of the UK general elections, with markets pricing in more political stability and fiscal clarity. On the other side, the Swiss Franc has weakened slightly due to the Swiss National Bank's relatively dovish tone and recent interventions aimed at softening CHF strength to support exports. This divergence in policy outlook adds momentum to the bullish GBPCHF narrative. Additionally, with UK wage growth remaining sticky and inflation still above target, the Bank of England is expected to delay aggressive rate cuts, further underpinning GBP strength. Technical conditions align perfectly with the macro backdrop. The price is respecting the bullish structure, with higher lows forming consistently. The flag resistance around 1.1150 is being tested multiple times, indicating pressure is building for a breakout. Once that resistance is breached with volume confirmation, the bullish wave could accelerate rapidly toward the previous high near 1.15. RSI and MACD also support the continuation bias, both showing signs of renewed upside momentum. As we head into the second half of June, GBPCHF is setting up beautifully for a trend continuation move. The flag pattern provides a high-probability technical setup with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. As long as the 1.10 support holds, bulls remain firmly in control. Watch for a confirmed breakout over the 1.1150–1.12 range, which would likely trigger a sharp rally toward the 1.15 target and possibly beyond in the coming weeks.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
4
GBPCHF may rise supported by FundamentalsGBPCHF may rise supported by Fundamentals Today, the Swiss 10-year bond yield is near a 3-week high. The Swiss 10-year government bond yield was near 0.40%, its highest level since May 20. The latest Swiss CPI and GDP data increased the chances that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting. Technical Analysis: GBPCHF is gathering and is forming an ascending triangle pattern. Once the price breaks the top of the pattern at 1.1155, it should rise further and could reach 🎯 1.1190; 🎯 1.1230. If it moves up from the current zone the first short term target will be at 1.1155 The first zone is very strong and could also act as a reversal zone and could push the price lower again, so be careful near that zone. Targets: 🎯 1.1155 🎯 1.1190 🎯 1.1230 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KlejdiCuni
8
GBPCHF Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the GBPCHF next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1095 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.1111 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
GBPCHF Rising Wedge bearish breakout The GBP/CHF currency pair is currently exhibiting a bearish sentiment, aligned with the broader downtrend. Recent price action shows the market is in a sideways consolidation phase, indicating a potential pause before the next directional move. Key Trading Level: 1.1230 This level marks a prior intraday consolidation zone and serves as a critical resistance area within the current trend context. Bearish Scenario (on rejection from 1.1230): A failed test of 1.1230 resistance would likely reinforce bearish momentum. Downside support targets include: 1.1100 – Initial support 1.1050 – Next structural support 1.0980 – Long-term bearish target Bullish Scenario (on breakout above 1.1230): A confirmed breakout and daily close above 1.1230 would invalidate the bearish structure. In that case, potential upside targets include: 1.1300 – Key resistance level 1.1370 – Higher resistance from previous reversal zones Conclusion The medium-term outlook for GBP/CHF remains bearish, with 1.1230 acting as a decisive pivot level. As long as price stays below this threshold, downside continuation toward 1.1100 and beyond remains favored. However, a clear breakout above 1.1230 on a daily closing basis would shift the sentiment and open the door for a bullish correction toward 1.1300–1.1370. Traders should monitor the 1.1230 level closely for directional confirmation. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation