GBPJPY Channel Down making a Lower High rejectionThe GBPJPY pair rose aggressively since the last time we gave our buy signal (April 11, see chart below), quickly hitting our conservative 109.250 Target:
The price has since made a Lower High rejection at the top of the Channel Down but remains supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Once broken and it closes a 1D candle below it, we will have bearish break-out signal. Our Targe will be 185.250, which will be the standard -5.85% decline that all 3 previous Bearish Legs had within the Channel Down.
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GBPJPY trade ideas
GBP/JPY SET UPGBP/JPY 1H - Above is a set up I will be looking to take part in as soon as we are delivered with the entry confirmation we need to get involved in this market. We have had two lots of break of structures to confirm longer term bullishness.
It is now a case of price trade into the third and finally area of Demand, to give us a nice refined entry for the position. Once we see price trade in and reject well we will look to take part in the market.
I have gone ahead and set my SL just below the zone we are getting involved from as this zone should act as protection and there should be enough Demand there to reverse price.
I have gone ahead and set my TP just below the last higher timeframe high, this is a great place to put it as this high should break to create a new higher timeframe high following the laws of bullishness. As a result giving us a great RR trade.
GBPJPY Bulls wake Up! Clean swing buy opportunity ahead! Price after the recent swing high as indicated on the chart (yellow circles)
It has since retraced to to 61.8 retracement level and has rejected with one bullish candle and currently rejecting again. There is a high probability to see some buy pressure ahead of next weeks trading sessions to the up side to target of 195.78 and beyond.
"TIME AND PRICE" LQ SETUP.TIME & PRICE is a narrative I define or state as the period between the movement of price induced by the trigger of liquidity-seeking orders to fill, and a more balanced and stable distribution of price.
So during this time of activity, we look for trade setups and opportunities to execute as price continues in its overall direction after LQ sweep between Swing Highs, Lows, and Breaks of market structure points.
GBPJPY SELL Analysis Idea!!!!⸻
Pair: GBPJPY
Timeframe: 1 Hour (1H)
Bias: Bearish (Sell Setup)
⸻
Technical Analysis:
1. Price Structure & Market Context:
• The chart shows a clear downtrend from the previous swing high near 196.000.
• Price has since formed a lower high within the red supply zone, reinforcing bearish pressure.
• Several liquidity grabs and rejections are visible near the red supply zone, indicating sellers are defending this level aggressively.
2. Key Zones & Levels:
• Supply Zone (Red Area): 193.243–193.594 — significant selling pressure observed.
• Buyers Above Zone: Price has failed to sustain above 193.243 despite attempts, confirming bearish strength.
• Break of Structure (BOS): At 192.824, confirming bearish momentum.
• Support Zones (Green Areas):
• First target area: 192.307
• Second target area: 191.272 — potential extended target if momentum continues downward.
3. Entry & Confirmation:
• Current Price: 193.168
• Price is rejecting the supply zone and failing to break above the 193.243 resistance line.
• Confirmation of sell setup co mes from:
• Bearish rejections at supply
• Price forming a lower high (193.100 HL level)
• BOS and retest pattern playing out
4. Trade Plan (Sell Idea):
• Sell Entry: Between 193.150–193.243 (rejection zone)
• Stop Loss: Above 193.594 (invalidate the supply zone rejection)
• Take Profit 1 (TP1): 192.307
• Take Profit 2 (TP2): 191.272 (extended target)
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Confluence Factors:
• Price is respecting supply zone.
• Repeated bearish rejections and liquidity sweeps above key levels.
• BOS supports shift in structure to bearish.
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Conclusion:
GBPJPY is showing strong signs of bearish control, with multiple rejections from the supply zone and a BOS indicating momentum shift. A sell from the current levels offers a good risk-to-reward setup, targeting the support zones below.
GBPJPY SELL NOW!!!!!!!GBPJPY took out the sell-side liquidity on a rising wedge pattern we have a retest and now again we have price making a sharp rejection off the POC level in the B shape formation am in on sell from this zone holding till new lows is created 184.385 is my measure target
JOIN AND ENJOY....
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?GBP/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support, which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 193.76
1st Support: 191.56
1st Resistance: 194.80
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GJ-Fri-23/05/25 TDA-Wide consolidation incoming?Analysis done directly on the chart
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Not everyday is a good trading day,
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Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
GBP/JPY Holds Key Support as Bullish Momentum BuildsA bullish setup has emerged on GBP/JPY, with recent price action suggesting bullish momentum is building. With GBP strengthening against USD, GBP/JPY may present a higher-probability bullish scenario compared to USD/JPY in the near term (though this also looks bullish to my eyes over the near term).
GBP/JPY held above key moving averages midweek. GBP/JPY failed to close below its 200-day SMA on both Wednesday and Thursday, while yesterday’s session also respected support at the 50-day EMA and the 192.00 handle.
Momentum indicators support the bullish case, with the daily RSI trading above 50 after rebounding from its most oversold level in six weeks.
As long as prices hold above Thursday’s low, bulls may look for a retest of the cycle highs near 196.00.
** Please note that Japan's CPI data drops in >30 minutes **
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
GBPJPY Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on GBPJPY and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 193.04 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 193.32
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPJPYGBP/JPY 10-Year Bond Yield Differential and Carry Trade Outlook (May 21, 2025)
Current Bond Yields and Interest Rate Differential
UK 10-year gilt yield: 4.77%
Japan 10-year JGB yield: 1.53%
Interest rate differential: 3.24% (GBP yield - JPY yield)
Key Factors Influencing Carry Trade Dynamics
For GBP (UK):
The UK’s 10-year yield rose to 4.77%, its highest since April 2025, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data (CPI at 3.5% YoY) and reduced expectations for Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts in 2025. Markets now price in only 34 basis points of cuts for the year .
The BoE’s cautious stance supports GBP strength, as higher yields attract foreign capital.
For JPY (Japan):
Japan’s 10-year JGB yield remains low at 1.53%, despite rising to a 17-year high earlier in 2025. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues gradual policy normalization but faces economic headwinds (Q1 GDP contraction of 0.2% QoQ) .
BoJ’s potential rate hikes and reduced bond purchases could strengthen the yen, adding risk to JPY-funded carry trades .
Carry Trade Reaction
Opportunity for GBP/JPY Carry Trade
The 3.24% yield spread makes GBP/JPY attractive for carry traders, who borrow low-yielding JPY to invest in higher-yielding GBP assets.
Historical precedent (e.g., 2021–2024) shows such spreads often lead to sustained GBP/JPY rallies, provided volatility remains low .
Risks and Challenges
JPY Strength Risks: BoJ’s tightening bias and safe-haven demand (amid U.S.-China trade tensions) could trigger sharp JPY appreciation, eroding carry profits .
GBP Volatility: UK inflation uncertainty and fiscal risks could destabilize gilt yields, increasing GBP volatility.
Intervention Risks: Japanese authorities have signaled willingness to curb excessive JPY weakness, raising the cost of carry trades .
Strategic Response for Carry Traders
Hedging: Use options (e.g., JPY call/put risk reversals) to protect against sudden yen strength while retaining exposure to the yield spread .
Selective Positioning: Focus on short-term trades to avoid prolonged exposure to BoJ policy shifts or UK economic data surprises.
Summary Table
Factor GBP Impact JPY Impact Carry Trade Implication
Yield Spread 4.77% 1.53% Attractive 3.24% differential
BoE Policy Cautious on cuts – Supports GBP strength
BoJ Policy – Gradual tightening Risk of JPY appreciation
Geopolitical Risks – Safe-haven JPY demand Limits GBP/JPY upside
Conclusion
Carry traders are likely to favor GBP/JPY due to the wide yield spread, but will mitigate risks through hedging and close monitoring of BoJ interventions, UK inflation trends, and geopolitical developments. The trade’s profitability hinges on stable or widening yield differentials and subdued JPY safe-haven demand.
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