Pound-yen bounces from ¥188GBPJPY moved up after the latest test of ¥188 as it now appears unlikely that the Bank of England will cut rates this month although the Bank of Japan still seems to be on track to tighten policy in the near future. In a recent interview Andrew Bailey indicated that four cuts are likely next year; the difference in rates for pound-yen is unlikely to go below 3% until late 2025 or early 2026.
The upward crossover of the slow stochastic in oversold might suggest a possibly ongoing bounce, but so far this hasn’t really been supported by volume. The main dynamic resistance in view now is the 100 SMA around ¥192.75. Looking further ahead, the 423.6% monthly Fibonacci extension around ¥200 is likely to be a very strong resistance above which the price is unlikely to break without a strong fundamental driver.
¥183.50 would probably still be an active support if the price continues lower after the current bounce. The key data coming up for pound-yen is British GDP on Thursday 12 December.
This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
