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GBPJPY trade ideas

GBP/JPY Breakdown: Massive Short Opportunity or Bear Trap?Overview: GBP/JPY has been a strong focus, and for those following along, we’ve been anticipating short opportunities as the market structure continues to favor downside momentum. Recent price action has set up another potential short entry, aligning with our long-term bearish bias. Weekly Timeframe: Major Rejection & Momentum Shift • Double Top Formation: GBP/JPY formed a classic M pattern around 198.89, rejecting that level twice before reversing. • Break of Key Support: The critical support level at 189.94 has been tested multiple times, acting as a floor before it finally broke last week with strong momentum. • Volume Confirmation: The breakdown occurred with increased volume, signaling real selling pressure and further validating bearish sentiment. Daily Timeframe: Retracement & Liquidity Grab • Impulse Move Lower: After breaking support, GBP/JPY dropped aggressively, marking a fresh lower low. • Pullback to Trap Buyers: The market retraced back up, but this was more than just a normal correction—it was a liquidity grab. • Traders who went short too early had stop losses at key resistance levels, and price wicked up to stop them out before resuming downward. • Instead of a smooth retracement, we saw sharp moves up, which is a telltale sign of liquidity collection before continuation. H1 Timeframe: Entry & Trade Execution • Structure Shift: • Initially, price was making higher highs and higher lows within the pullback phase. • However, we broke that bullish structure, confirming the reversal. • Retest Confirmation: • Price tested the breakdown level, creating a strong entry opportunity for shorts. • Entry Execution: • First Entry: Placed a small short position as price retested. • Second Entry: Increased position size once the breakdown was confirmed with a bearish close. Key Invalidations & Targets ✅ Bearish Scenario (Primary Outlook): • As long as price stays below 192.32, shorts remain valid. • If momentum continues downward, targets include: • First target: 189.94 (previous key support, now resistance). • Next levels: 187.50, then possibly 185.00 if momentum follows through. ❌ Invalidation (Bullish Breakout Scenario): • If GBP/JPY pushes above 192.32, holds, and breaks 192.98, the bearish thesis is invalid. • In that case, we may see a continuation higher, forcing a cut on shorts and a reevaluation of market conditions. • Stop Loss: Set above 192.98 at 193.06 to protect against a breakout reversal. Conclusion: GBP/JPY remains in a high-probability short zone, with technical confirmations aligning on multiple timeframes. If price remains under key levels, we expect further downside, with liquidity already being grabbed from early sellers. However, as always, if price invalidates the setup by reclaiming resistance levels, risk management is key. 📉 Short bias remains intact unless 192.32 is broken and held. 🔹 If you found this breakdown useful, make sure to like, share, and let us know your thoughts. If you see an alternative setup, drop your analysis—always open to different perspectives! 🚀
Short
by BlueOceanFxAcademy
2
GBPJPY Price ActionHello Traders, If you entered during the aggressive selling phase, I hope you managed to capture at least 100 pips! Now, as you can see, the price action has formed a Head & Shoulders pattern. However, I don’t trade patterns blindly—this setup is backed by a fresh 4-hour Supply and Demand zone, which adds more weight to the trade idea. If the price respects this zone, we can expect a drop. But remember, always take small risks and manage your position size wisely. Don’t get greedy—stick to your plan and let the market do its thing. The beauty of trading is that the market repeats itself over and over again. Stay disciplined, trade smart, and happy trading!
Short
by SuvashishFx
2
GBPJPYShort Fundamental Analysis – GBP/JPY 1. Context • Bank of England (BoE) • Maintains relatively high interest rates in an effort to bring down persistently elevated inflation. • Ongoing discussions about whether the BoE will continue rate hikes or pause if economic growth shows signs of slowing. • Bank of Japan (BoJ) • Continues its ultra-loose monetary policy with near-zero interest rates, limiting the yen’s yield appeal. • While minor adjustments are possible (e.g., yield curve control tweaks), there is no clear signal yet of a decisive shift toward tightening. 2. Possible Direction • Bias: Bullish for GBP/JPY, largely due to the significant interest rate differential. The pound tends to benefit from BoE’s hawkish stance, while the yen remains under pressure from the BoJ’s accommodative policies. • Alternate Scenario: • If the BoJ unexpectedly hints at rate hikes or abandons yield curve control, it could spark a sharp downward correction in GBP/JPY. • Weaker-than-expected UK data (e.g., disappointing inflation or growth figures) might also reduce the pair’s upward momentum. 3. Factors to Watch This Week 1. BoE Speeches & UK Data • Inflation reports, GDP releases, and employment statistics that could reinforce or diminish BoE hawkishness. 2. BoJ Policy Communications • Any sign of a more hawkish approach or surprising policy changes may strengthen the yen. 3. Global Risk Sentiment • Heightened uncertainty can sometimes boost JPY as a safe-haven currency, though GBP typically benefits from higher rates when investors seek yield. 4. Overall Conclusion • GBP is supported by a relatively hawkish BoE, though the UK economy faces inflationary pressures and potential growth concerns. • JPY stays vulnerable under the BoJ’s ultra-accommodative regime, unless a sudden policy pivot occurs. • In the near term, GBP/JPY is likely to remain on an upward path, barring a surprise move from the BoJ or significantly weaker UK macro data. Disclaimer This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets can be volatile and carry significant risks. Always align decisions with your own risk tolerance and consult reliable sources before making trading choices.
by SkylimitBreakPoint
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of GBPJPY at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
Short
by syomking76418
GBPJPY Sell ForecastGBPJPY New forecast👨‍💻👨‍💻 The price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. Note: Follow proper risk management rules. Never risk more then 2% of your total capital. Money management is the key of success in this business...... Set your own SL & TP. Please support this idea with a Like and COMMENT if you find it useful click "follow" on our profile if you will like these type of trading ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!! lemme know your thoughts in the comment sec...
Short
by King_CityStar_Fx
1
Gbpjpy long idealooking for this entry on longs for GJ , waiting for the LQ to be taken below and then tp continue upwards. reason being weekly hasnt been taken yet so theres no need for it to reverse this is just a pullback to inuduce sellers. Also on the 5min TF theres a falling wedge whic has prevously played out for me. my first TP will be at the weekly high then my next target will be at the top as you can see on the monthly also it has taken the lower LQ so next level is the higher LQ at 198.250 but thats overall target this isnt a signal just my own analysis and idea what do you guys think ?
Long
by TheRogueChef
5
GBPJPY Price ActionWe’ve already hit our take-profit (TP) target, and the price has now reached the highest volume zone, which is where it previously dropped from. Currently, the price is attempting to form a higher high, but the upward momentum is slowing down. If you look at the volume, there’s a noticeable divergence—price is making progress, but the volume at the bottom isn’t significant, indicating weakness in the move. For your take-profit levels, you can aim for TP1 which around 250+ pips during the initial impulse move and TP2 which is 450+ pips if the price continues to push higher. Keep an eye on the volume and momentum for confirmation. Hint - FOR SL Don't use more than 30-40 Pips or MAX 50 Pips Depends Your Lot Size and Risk Management.
Short
by SuvashishFx
GBP/JPY - 1H Analysis & Key Levels📉 GBP/JPY - 1H Analysis & Key Levels 🔴 H1 Supply Zone: 192.905 - 193.027 🟢 Demand Zones: 192.566 - 192.150 📊 Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bearish Rejection: If price rejects the 192.905 - 193.027 supply zone, we may see a move toward retracement levels at 192.566 - 192.150. 2️⃣ Break & Retest: A breakout above 193.027 could indicate further bullish continuation. 💡 Trading Plan: ✅ Watch for rejection at 192.905 - 193.027 for potential short entries. ✅ Monitor 192.566 - 192.150 as possible buy zones on retracements. ✅ A confirmed break below 192.000 could signal further downside towards 190.500. #FXFOREVER #GBPJPY #ForexTrading #SmartMoney #PriceAction #JPY
Short
by FXFOREVER_87
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?GBP/JPY is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 194.65 1st Support: 190.64 1st Resistance: 197.23 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets