Probability Analysis:Probability Analysis:
Given the market structure and liquidity considerations, we can assign percentage probabilities to different scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (Price moves up to PDH - 189.700 or Premium Zone - 191.000)
Probability: 55%
Reason:
The market recently showed a ChOCH to the upside.
If price maintains above the equilibrium zone, it may target PDH or even higher into the premium zone.
Liquidity above equal highs (EQH) might act as a magnet.
Bearish Scenario (Price moves down to PDL - 188.200 or Demand Zone)
Probability: 45%
Reason:
There’s a weak low that could be grabbed before a reversal.
Market has seen BOS downward, showing some bearish intent.
If price rejects the current resistance and moves below equilibrium, the next stop is the discount zone (188.200-187.900).Slightly higher probability of a bullish move (55%), as price is currently attempting to establish higher lows and break towards PDH.
Key Confirmation Needed:
If price remains above 188.900, bullish continuation is more likely.
If price breaks below 188.500, bearish pressure may take over.
