GBPUSD BIG MOVE COMING?Structure Overview:
The market has been ranging within a clear horizontal consolidation zone, with two key zones:
Support Zone: 1.32600 - 1.33000 (gray box at the bottom)
Resistance Zone : 1.33500 - 1.33800 (gray box at the top)
Price recently broke above the upper consolidation range, suggesting bullish momentum.
🔍 Analysis:
The pair has broken out of the consolidation range after multiple rejections from the support zone.
We now look for a potential retest of the previous resistance (1.33500 area) as new support.
Two potential bullish continuation scenarios are highlighted:
📌 Trade Plan:
Scenario 1 – Immediate Continuation:
If price holds above 1.33500, look for bullish continuation toward:
TP1: 1.34026
TP2: 1.34208
Scenario 2 – Retest Setup:
Wait for a pullback to the 1.33000–1.33500 zone.
Confirmation of bullish rejection (e.g., bullish engulfing or pin bar) could provide a high-probability long setup.
Entry: After bullish confirmation in retest zone
SL: Below 1.33000 (invalidates breakout)
TP: 1.34026 / 1.34208
📉 Invalidations:
A clean break and close below 1.33000 may suggest a failed breakout, putting 1.32600 back into play.
🧠 Bias: Bullish (as long as 1.33000 holds)
🕒 Timeframe: 4H
GBPUSD trade ideas
Fed pleases everyone, except for one. BoE is next on the watchThe Federal Reserve came out with its rate decision and it seems that all market participants got pleased, except for one.
Today it's the BoE's turn to deliver rates.
Let's dig in!
TVC:DJI
TVC:DXY
FX_IDC:GBPUSD
MARKETSCOM:100UK
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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GBPUSD Sell Insight Last week cleared the previous week's high 1.34232 and closed below it.
This signifies more push to the downside from the weekly perspectives
I'm anticipating the previous weekly low to be the first draw on Liquidity 🧲
On the daily timeframe we have a break of structure from 1.33044 to the downside and the QML level 1.33784 whic6also aligns within an imbalance on the H4 would be used for sell continuation after the short reversal that happens.
Look for entry on the H4 and sell to the draw on Liquidity zone
Kindly share if you find this insightful.
It's been a while here. I'm more active on X (Twitter) now
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Cable (GBP/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 1.3264
1st Support: 1.3233
1st Resistance: 1.3338
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UPDATE ON GBP/USD ANALYSISGBP/USD 1D - With this pair, I am looking to see price go short, trading us down and into the Demand Zone before taking us higher in this marker longer term. This is because this market is a bullish one longer term.
By price trading down and into the Demand Zone below we are seeing price correct itself, this gives price the chance to offload Supply and introduce Demand.
Now before price does go on to trade us lower I am expecting price to trade us higher, setting a lower high as it begins distributing, this giving us the opportunity to take the market short whilst it corrects.
We will close those short positions once price trades down and into the Demand Zone and then look to take the market long once we are delivered with the relevant entry confirmation.
Bullish bounce?GBP/USD is reacting of the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3336
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that line sup with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3299
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3402
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Gbp/Usd Consolidation 06-May-25Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration.
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Will GBP/USD head lower from THIS major resistance zone?Sterling finds itself walking a financial tightrope this week. The GBP/USD is delicately poised between transatlantic central bank decisions and murky trade headlines. As the Federal Reserve holds court across the pond and the Bank of England gets ready to show its hand, traders are bracing for a possible divergence in tone—and in policy. The dollar has taken a softer step into the week, retreating after two weeks of modest gains. But don't be fooled: that weakness could easily reverse if the Trump administration’s trade negotiations result in new agreements. Officials suggest deals with partners beyond China might be inked by week's end. Until then, the markets remain unimpressed. Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls came and went with little fanfare, and Monday’s ISM services PMI barely registered. So far, the macroeconomic data has taken a backseat to geopolitical posturing.
Trade Truce Could Revive the Dollar’s Fortunes
The dollar index has wobbled a little after a brief two-week recovery, helped by an unwind of previous “Sell America” trade. But the big question remains: will Washington and Beijing finally bury the hatchet? Equity markets are behaving as if they expect some form of resolution—however vague—but the greenback hasn't followed suit. Fed independence is also under the microscope, with President Trump’s persistent rate-cut rhetoric raising eyebrows. The political fog isn't helping matters. Yet, a trade breakthrough—particularly with China—could lend support to the dollar, shifting sentiment swiftly.
Sterling's Fate Hinges on Central Bank Theatre
Two heavyweight monetary policy announcements are set to dominate fate for the GBP/USD currency pair over the next 24 hours or so.
• FOMC Rate Decision – Wednesday, 7 May, 19:00 BST
No surprises expected here. The Fed is widely tipped to hold rates steady at 4.25–4.50%. The real drama lies in the messaging. With political noise in the background, Powell may aim to exude calm and control. Markets will scour the statement for hints of June’s outlook.
• Bank of England Rate Decision – Thursday, 8 May, 12:00 BST
Here’s where the action really lies for sterling. A 25bp cut is largely priced in, and a dovish 9-0 vote wouldn’t shock anyone. But traders will pay close attention to the inflation outlook—especially with energy prices softening. A slightly more optimistic growth revision could temper the dovishness. Any hint of hawkish resistance may offer the pound a temporary reprieve, perhaps even lifting GBP/USD to flirt with 1.3500.
Technical Outlook: Cable Bumps Up Against Familiar Ceiling
Technically speaking, GBP/USD is looking a bit overextended, though bears haven’t been vindicated just yet. Last week’s weekly chart printed an inverted hammer—a warning shot, perhaps, but without any firm follow-through so far.
The pair recently tested September’s high at 1.3434 before retreating. But more formidable resistance lurks between 1.35 and 1.40—a zone that’s proved impenetrable since the Brexit saga began. So, the path upward may be limited from here on.
On the downside, keep an eye on 1.3250 for initial support, followed by the psychological barrier at 1.3000.
Final Word
It’s shaping up to be a pivotal week for cable. Trade chatter has failed to energise the dollar, while sterling stands on the edge, waiting for the Bank of England’s cue. With Powell and Bailey both stepping into the spotlight, and global trade deals waiting in the wings, this week could deliver the jolt that the GBP/USD has been waiting for. For now, a cautious stance on sterling feels justified—but everything’s in play, and sentiment may turn quickly.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Cable buy setupGBP/USD Buy Setup – Market Maker Buy Model
This setup follows the Market Maker Buy Model, which is a strategic framework used by institutional players to accumulate positions before initiating a bullish move. It typically unfolds in three main phases: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Expansion.
🔹 1. Accumulation Phase
Price consolidates in a defined range, often forming a liquidity pool below a key support level.
Market makers accumulate long positions while retail traders are uncertain or selling.
The range is characterized by sideways movement, often with equal lows or small stop hunts.
🔹 2. Manipulation Phase (Stop Hunt / Fakeout)
Price dips below the support range to induce retail stop-loss orders or entice breakout sellers.
This move is not genuine bearish pressure—it's designed to grab liquidity.
Watch for a quick rejection or bullish engulfing candle signaling smart money entry.
🔹 3. Expansion Phase (Market Maker Buy Move)
After grabbing liquidity, price reverses sharply upward with strong bullish momentum.
Entry confirmation may come from:
Break of structure (BOS) to the upside.
Retest of the broken structure or order block (OB).
Bullish confirmation on indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD divergence).
✅ Entry Strategy
Enter on the retest of the OB or demand zone after the manipulation phase.
Place stop-loss below the low of the manipulation wick.
Target recent swing highs or imbalance zones.
🧠 Key Notes
Confirm with multiple confluences: structure, liquidity sweep, time of day (e.g., London or New York session).
Always manage risk—use proper R:R (Risk:Reward), e.g., 1:2 or 1:3.
Cable H1 | Falling toward an overlap supportCable (GBP/USD) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.3338 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.3300 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 1.3378 which is a swing-high resistance.
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GBPUSD ON SELLIn this video I will be sharing my GBPUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical analysis by using candlesticks in order to have confidence over the market/control over your emotion no matter what the fundamentals are saying concerning the market, so you can watch it and improve your forex trading skill.
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?GBP/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3336
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that line sup with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3296
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3419
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
May 6, 2025 GBPUSD Sell📉 Bias: Bearish | Risk: 0.5% | 🎯 Targets: 1:3 (take 75%), final target ~1:7
🧠 Reasoning:
Price reacted from a Daily / Weekly Orderblock with confluence from a 15m OB
Asia Low as target provides clean downside structure
Morning Star formed inside the OB → entry taken at the imbalance left behind
10 pip SL covers highs efficiently ✅
Understanding the Inverted Cup and Handle Chart PatternUnderstanding the Inverted Cup and Handle Chart Pattern
Understanding chart patterns is fundamental for market participants. This article delves into the inverted cup and handle formation, a bearish signal indicating a potential downward movement. Explore its identification, trading strategies, psychological underpinnings, common pitfalls, and more to boost your trading knowledge.
What Is the Inverted Cup and Handle Pattern?
The inverted cup and handle, sometimes called an upside-down cup and handle pattern, is a bearish chart pattern that may appear during up- and downtrends. It is the opposite of the traditional cup and handle pattern, which is bullish. The inverse formation consists of two main parts: the "cup," which is an inverted U-shape, and the "handle," a small upward retracement following the cup.
Identifying the Inverted Cup and Handle Pattern
Identifying the inverse cup and handle pattern involves recognising a specific sequence of market movements that signal a potential bearish move. Here's a step-by-step overview of identifying this formation:
Cup Formation
- Shape: The pattern begins with an inverted U-shaped "cup." The price gradually rises, consolidates, and then begins to decline, reflecting a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment.
- Depth: The cup should have a rounded top, not a sharp V-shape, indicating a gradual reversal. The depth of the cup can vary but typically represents a significant portion of the preceding movement.
Handle Formation
- Upward Retracement: After the cup's formation, prices usually experience a minor upward retracement or consolidation, forming the "handle." This movement should be relatively short and not exceed the initial high of the cup.
- Shape and Duration: The handle often appears as a small flag or pennant and should be brief in duration compared to the cup. An optimal handle retraces no more than half of the cup’s depth.
Breakout Confirmation
- Neckline Break: The pattern is confirmed when prices break below the neckline, the lowest point of the handle. This breakout often leads to a significant decline in prices, signalling a bearish trend.
- Volume Surge: Volume typically decreases during the formation of the cup and increases as prices decline, especially during the handle formation. A substantial increase in volume during the breakout can validate the pattern and minimise the risk of false signals.
The Psychology of the Inverted Cup and Handle
The psychology behind the inverse cup and handle pattern is rooted in market sentiment and behavioural finance. This bearish pattern reflects a shift from optimism to pessimism among traders.
- Initial Uptrend: The formation starts with an upward movement, where traders are generally bullish, driving prices higher. This phase is marked by growing confidence and increasing demand.
- Formation of the Cup: As prices peak, consolidate, and start to decline, some traders begin to take profits, leading to reduced buying pressure. The rounded decline of the cup signifies a gradual shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish as traders become cautious and selling pressure mounts.
- Handle Formation: The minor upward retracement forming the handle indicates a brief period of consolidation where the market tests the resolve of buyers. It can be considered a dead cat bounce. This phase often traps optimistic traders who expect the uptrend to resume, but the overall sentiment remains fragile and cautious.
- Breakout and Decline: The decisive break below the neckline represents a culmination of bearish sentiment. At this point, selling pressure overwhelms any remaining bullishness, leading to a sharp decline. The volume surge during this breakout confirms the shift in market psychology from hopeful to bearish as traders rush to exit their positions or initiate short sales.
Trading the Inverted Cup and Handle Pattern
Trading the inverted cup and handle pattern involves careful identification and strategic decision-making to maximise potential returns. This pattern presents two primary entry points for traders: during the handle formation or after the neckline break.
Entry on the Break of the Handle
- Risk-Reward Advantage: Entering on the breakout of the handle’s lower boundary offers a better risk-to-reward ratio but requires more skill and confidence in pattern recognition.
- Technical Tools: Traders often use a medium-term moving average (like 21 periods) to confirm the downward leg of the handle. A decisive close below the moving average indicates a continuation of the downward handle leg.
- Momentum Indicators: Using momentum indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) or stochastic oscillator helps confirm downward movement. Bearish divergence suggests that the bearish trend is likely to continue.
- Volume Analysis: Increasing volume during the handle's breakout indicates strengthening seller control. High volume often validates the pattern and potentially reduces the risk of false signals. Note that volume data may be less reliable in a decentralised forex market.
- Stop Loss and Profit Target: Traders typically place a stop loss above the handle's high to potentially protect against upward spikes. The reverse cup and handle pattern target is usually set at a distance equal to the cup's height, projected downward from the handle's breakout point, although it can be greater if the retracement is particularly shallow.
Entry After the Neckline Break
- Confirmation Advantage: Waiting for the neckline break offers greater confirmation of the formation but may provide a less favourable risk-to-reward ratio.
- Price Action: A decisive close below the pattern's low, ideally with a strong candlestick and minimal wicks, indicates a reliable breakout. This typically confirms the bearish trend and provides a clear entry signal.
- Volume Confirmation: Higher volume during the neckline break can further validate the pattern and indicate that the breakout is genuine and not a false signal.
- Stop Loss and Profit Target: In this scenario, the stop loss is typically set above the handle's high. The profit target remains the same, projecting the cup's height downward from the breakout point.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
When trading the upside-down cup and handle pattern, avoiding common mistakes is key for maximising potential returns. Some of the more common mistakes traders make include:
- Premature Entry: Entering a trade too early, before the handle completes or the neckline breaks, can lead to false signals and losses. Most traders wait for clear confirmation, such as a decisive close below the neckline with increased volume.
- Ignoring Volume: Volume is a critical component in confirming the pattern. Low volume during the breakout phase may indicate a fakeout. Traders typically look for a substantial increase in volume to validate the pattern.
- Incorrect Pattern Identification: Misidentifying the pattern is a common error. The cup should have a rounded bottom, not a sharp V-shape, and the handle should be relatively short. Accurate identification requires practice and attention to detail.
- Overlooking Market Conditions: External factors, such as news events or broader market trends, can impact the pattern’s reliability. Traders consider these conditions when planning their trades.
Advantages and Disadvantages
As with all chart patterns, the inverted cup and handle pattern comes with its pros and cons. Here are some key advantages and disadvantages of using this pattern:
Advantages
- Clear Signal: The pattern provides a clear signal of a potential bearish movement, helping traders anticipate market declines.
- Risk Management: With defined entry and exit points (handle high for stop loss and cup depth for profit target), it aids in effective risk management.
- Flexibility in Analysis: Several forms of analysis, from support/resistance and momentum indicators to volume and price action, can be used to trade the pattern.
- Versatility: Applicable across various timeframes and markets, including stocks, forex, and commodities, making it a versatile tool for different trading strategies.
Disadvantages
- Complex Identification: Accurately identifying the pattern can be challenging, requiring significant experience and skill.
- Rarity: The pattern doesn’t occur frequently, limiting trading opportunities.
- False Breakouts: Like all chart patterns, it is susceptible to false breakouts, especially if not confirmed with volume and other technical indicators.
- Timing Sensitivity: Entering too early during the handle formation can result in premature positions, while waiting for the neckline break might reduce the risk-to-reward ratio.
The Bottom Line
The inverted cup and handle pattern is one of the most popular chart patterns among traders of all levels. However, like any technical formation, it should be used alongside other indicators and sound risk management to potentially increase its effectiveness. By mastering patterns like the inverted cup and handle, traders can gain deeper insights into market psychology and price action to navigate volatile markets with greater confidence.
FAQ
What Is the Inverse Cup and Handle Pattern in Forex?
The inverse cup and handle pattern in forex is a bearish chart pattern. It features an inverted U-shaped cup followed by a small upward retracement (the handle). This pattern suggests that sellers are gaining control, and prices are likely to decline further once the neckline is broken.
How Can You Trade the Inverse Cup and Handle?
Traders can enter positions either on the break of the handle’s lower boundary or after the neckline break. Entering during the handle might offer a better risk-to-reward ratio, while waiting for the neckline break provides greater confirmation. Key tools to validate the breakout include moving averages, momentum indicators like RSI or stochastic oscillator, and volume analysis.
What Happens After the Reverse Cup and Handle Pattern?
After the reverse cup and handle pattern is completed, the price typically moves downward strongly. This bearish movement is often confirmed by a strong breakout below the neckline with increased volume, signalling a sustained decline in prices.
What Is the Opposite of the Cup and Handle?
The opposite of a cup and handle is the inverse cup and handle pattern. While the cup and handle indicates a bullish movement, the inverse version signals a bearish trend.
Is the Inverted Cup and Handle Bullish or Bearish?
The inverted cup and handle pattern is bearish. It indicates that the price will move downwards, suggesting that traders may open short trades.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
If price is over-extended and at a key S/R level then trade it!!All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
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GBP/USD Short Trade Setup: Reversal from 1.34370 with Target at Entry Point:
Marked at 1.34370, where the analyst anticipates a reversal or price rejection.
Stop Loss:
Positioned above at 1.34975, covering a 2.62% risk margin. This is a protective level in case the price moves against the trade.
Target (Take Profit):
Set at 1.31015, just above a strong support zone around 1.30818. This is where the analyst expects the price to eventually fall.
Resistance Point:
Noted around 1.33007 – 1.32859, acting as an intermediate level of interest and possible price reaction zone.