Still pending clear confirmationPrice Action Overview:
From 1:00 AM to 10:00 AM today, I see the price steadily rising from around 1.2829 to a current close of about 1.29131. The 10:00 candle even touched a high of 1.29248. This sequence suggests that the market is testing the upper bound of the recent consolidation range.
Consolidation and Potential Overextension:
Although the movement from roughly 1.282 up to 1.292 is relatively tight, I interpret this as the price moving near the top of its recent consolidation zone. In earlier analysis, I identified the 1.281–1.285 region as a base, and a rally above that, especially reaching near 1.292, indicates that the move might be overshooting its sustainable range. This aligns with my view that the rally is overextended and a pullback could be imminent.
Candlestick Insights and Intraday Reversal Clues:
Looking at these recent candles, I notice that while the 10:00 candle closed with an upward gain (+21.8 pips) and the 9:00 candle also posted an upward move (+22.3 pips), the overall pattern shows modest moves with small bodies, suggesting that buyers are active but perhaps not strongly in control. There’s also that slight dip at 1:00 AM (a -15.0 pip move) which hints at the underlying volatility and potential exhaustion. These factors lead me to believe that the recent rally may be unsustainable.
Indicator and Fundamental Context Reinforced:
My previous analysis—supported by an overbought RSI reading on the 1‑hour and the overall bearish technical patterns (like the bearish marubozu and long-line bearish candles) on lower timeframes—remains valid. The fresh fundamental news adding volatility likely contributed to this impulsive rally, and now the market appears to be testing its high without much conviction.
What I’m Watching and the Trade Setup Going Forward:
Given this recent data, I’m focused on the area between 1.292 and 1.290. If I see a clear reversal pattern (for example, a bearish engulfing candle or a pin bar developing on the 15‑minute chart around these levels), that would confirm my expectation of sellers stepping in.
I’d look to enter a short position around 1.292–1.290, with a stop-loss set just above the current high (around 1.296–1.297) to account for typical volatility. This approach is consistent with targeting a move down toward support in the 1.278–1.281 range, offering a favorable risk/reward ratio.
