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GBPUSD trade ideas

GBPUSD has flattened the decline. Potential rebound ahead.GBPUSD is trading inside a Bullish Megaphone since the April 22nd low. Typically it bottoms after the price crosses under the MA50 (1d), which it did last week. Even though the bottom of the Megaphone is a bit lower, R/R suggests that those are solid buy entry levels. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 1.3670 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, where all 3 previous Highs were priced). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) has flattened and its MA trend line is approaching. A crossing will confirm the bullish signal. Please like, follow and comment!!
Long
by TradingBrokersView
GBP/USD edges higher ahead of UK CPIThe GBP/USD finally found some mild buying interest in the last few days, but will it be enough to reverse the trend remains to be seen. Last week, we had some weaker US jobless claims and consumer sentiment data, helping to reduce the appeal of US dollar as traders’ confidence in the Fed’s ability to cut rates grew further. Not that there were many doubts but after last Friday’s strong US jobs report some traders were understandably forced to rethink their expectations for aggressive cuts. Today’s only piece of US data – the Empire State Manufacturing Index – also came in weaker. Earlier today, we had some mixed UK data with unemployment unexpectedly slipping to 4%, down from 4.1%, and as wage growth easing 4.9%, down from 5.1%, in line with analysts' expectations. UK CPI is the highlight on Wednesday. As we look forward to the rest of the week ahead, the lack of any major US data could see the greenback give back some of its recent gains, although that is not to say that the GBP/USD forecast will necessarily turn bullish, as the upside potential could be limited. UK CPI coming up UK CPI has remained at 2.2% annual pace for the last 4 months, but it is now expected to fall to 1.9% i.e., below the Bank of England’s target. Andrew Bailey has recently said that upcoming UK rate cuts could be more aggressive, although the BoE governor has also acknowledged risks of an oil shock from the Middle East situation. The GBP/USD forecast will turn modestly bullish should either CPI overshoot expectations. GBP/USD technical analysis The GBP/USD finally found some mild support from the area between 1.3000 to 1.3045. This zone was previously strong resistance in July, before we broke through it in August. The retest from above in September held, leading to an eventual rally to above 1.34 handle where the cable peaked and then started to head lower. So, whether this 1.3000-1.3045 range holds or breaks will have important ramifications on the near term direction of the GBP/USD. A potential break below could lead to a drop to 1.2900 where the cable will face an even stronger support from the rising trend line that has been in place since September 2022. Meanwhile on the upside, the next potential resistance is seen around 1.3150 followed by 1.3250. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst for FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
GBP/USD : First BUY, then SELL ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently holding the support at the 1.30700 area. I expect it to continue its upward movement. The potential targets for this analysis are 1.31130 and the range between 1.31345 to 1.31455. Also, keep an eye on the 1.31455 to 1.31760 area for a potential SELL opportunity. THE MAIN ANALYSIS : Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
GBPUSD 2024.10.15 12:16:05 Trading Signal SELL FrankPro Signal for GBPUSD Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 1.30541 SL: 1.30853 Entry Price: 1.30801 Flexity Analysis for GBPUSD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Strong Down LT=Probably Down Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Down FlexityIndicator Analysis Method(0) **GBP/USD Currency Pair Analysis** **Short-term Analysis (October 15, 2024)** ### Price Movement Expectation The price is expected to go down in the short term, as indicated by the break below 1.3050 and the pressure from sellers. ### Key Levels to Watch | Level | Description | | --- | --- | | 1.3005 | Support area expected to be tested | | 1.2945 | Potential decline area if support is broken | ### Trend Indicators * Moving averages suggest a short-term bullish trend, which could lead to a rebound. ### Probability of Short-term Price Movement | Direction | Probability | | --- | --- | | Down | 60% | | Up | 30% | | Same | 10% | **Long-term Analysis (October 14 — 18, 2024)** ### Price Movement Expectation The forecast indicates an attempt to develop a bearish correction, but ultimately, the price is expected to rise with a target above 1.3575. ### Key Levels to Watch | Level | Description | | --- | --- | | 1.3205 | Resistance area breakout needed to confirm growth | | 1.2865 | Breakout of this area would cancel growth option and indicate decline | ### Probability of Long-term Price Movement | Direction | Probability | | --- | --- | | Up | 55% | | Down | 35% | | Same | 10% | **Note:** These probabilities are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new data becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up FlexityIndicator Analysis Method(1) Market Outlook Short-term Outlook (next few days to a week) The price is expected to go down. The technical analysis suggests a potential lower move towards the 100-DMA at 1.2945, and a break below 1.3000 could lead to further support levels at 1.2900 and 1.2789. The forecasted movements also indicate a bearish correction to test the support level near 1.2965. Long-term Outlook (next few months to years) The price is expected to stay the same or go down. The long-term forecasts indicate a mixed outlook for the remainder of 2024, with some predicting a bearish trend. Additionally, there are predictions of a gradual decline through 2027, with some forecasts as low as 1.10 in the next five years. However, it's worth noting that there is also a predicted range between 1.24 and 1.33, which suggests some stability in the long-term outlook. Important Note Please keep in mind that these conclusions are based on the provided analysis and may not reflect the actual market movements. The foreign exchange market is highly volatile and subject to various factors that can influence price movements. Alternatively, I can also format the text using tables and lists if you prefer: Market Outlook Short-term Outlook (next few days to a week) Expected Price Movement Down Support Levels 1.2945 (100-DMA), 1.2900, 1.2789 Forecasted Movements Bearish correction to test support level near 1.2965 Long-term Outlook (next few months to years) Expected Price Movement Stay the same or go down Predicted Range 1.24 - 1.33 Forecasted Decline Gradual decline through 2027, with some forecasts as low as 1.10 in the next five years Important Note Please keep in mind that these conclusions are based on the provided analysis and may not reflect the actual market movements. The foreign exchange market is highly volatile and subject to various factors that can influence price movements. Let me know if you prefer one format over the other Result: ST=Down LT=Down FlexityIndicator Analysis Method(2) GBP/USD Price Movement Assessment Short-term Outlook (Next Few Days to a Week) Expected Price Movement Technical Analysis Down Pressure from 50-day moving average RSI in bearish territory, indicating potential for lower move Prices broken through area between signal lines downwards, indicating seller pressure However, there is also an expectation for the pair to test the support area near 1.3005, followed by a potential upward rebound, suggesting that the downward movement may be limited, and a bounce back is possible. Long-term Outlook (Next Few Months to a Year and Beyond) Expected Price Movement Forecast Down Decline to 1.235 by the end of 2024 Further decline to 1.10 in the next five years Summary The short-term outlook is bearish, but with potential for a limited bounce back, while the long-term outlook is more decisively bearish. Result: ST=Down LT=Down
Short
by orbborisson
2
GbpUsd Trade IdeaSecond set up I'll be looking at this morning is going to be GU. We have GU at a clean and well respected level of support that price has respected before. We're also at a weekly resistance using it as support right now. Weekly time frame is still bullish as well with price respecting the support it's currently at. If price shifts to the upside then we would just be following the overall trend. Now, if price decides to crash from here then we would have broken bullish structures on all time frames. Once the smaller time frames pullback to retest and confirm our shorts all time frames would be in sync for short opportunities. But that's if a break to the downside happens here. For now I'm chasing longs. We'll see!
Long
by OfficialJ23
GBP/USD Fluctuates in a Narrow Range Amid Economic DataOn Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair traded within a narrow range between 1.3077 and 1.3080, showing a slight rebound from a demand area. Despite the modest movement, the market is still waiting for more significant developments before making larger moves. UK Economic Data Supports GBP Stability Earlier on Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released key employment data, which provided some support for the British Pound. The ILO Unemployment Rate for the three months leading up to August eased to 4.0%, down from 4.1% in July. Additionally, Employment Change figures showed an increase of 373K in August, up from 265K in July, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. However, the report also showed a slight softening in wage inflation, as the Average Earnings excluding Bonus dropped to 4.9%, down from 5.1%. While wage growth moderated, the overall labor market data was positive enough to give the Pound some stability in the early session. US Data and Market Outlook The economic calendar is light for the US on Tuesday, with no major data releases expected. The market’s focus will shift to Thursday when the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are due to be released. These reports are expected to bring more volatility to the GBP/USD pair, as they will provide insights into the strength of the US economy and the potential direction of the US Dollar. Until these data are released, the British Pound may continue to hold onto small gains, but the overall market mood remains cautious. Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Ahead? From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure, and we anticipate a potential continuation of this trend. While the pair has found some temporary support around the current levels, we expect the bearish momentum to continue until the pair reaches a more solid demand zone around the 1.2800 level. Until the pair approaches this level, we are refraining from opening any new positions, waiting for more clarity on market direction and potential retracement signals. Conclusion GBP/USD is holding steady in a narrow range as UK labor market data provides temporary support. However, the overall outlook remains cautious, with the potential for further bearish pressure. Investors should keep an eye on Thursday’s US data releases, which could trigger more significant movements in the pair. For now, we are waiting for GBP/USD to reach a stronger demand area before considering any new positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
GBPUSD looking berish for 80 pipsA bearish outlook for GBP/USD indicates a declining trend, suggesting that the British pound is expected to weaken against the US dollar. Factors contributing to this bearish sentiment might include: Weak UK economic data: Sluggish GDP growth, declining industrial output, or disappointing retail sales figures can signal economic weakness. Monetary policy divergence: If the Bank of England is dovish (delaying interest rate hikes or cutting rates) while the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance (raising rates), it can pressure GBP lower. Political instability: Ongoing political uncertainty, such as Brexit-related developments or changes in government leadership, can weaken investor confidence in the pound. Stronger USD: A robust US economy, favorable economic reports, or safe-haven flows into the US dollar can contribute to GBP/USD falling.
Short
by LORDOFTHETRADERS
GBPUSD Confirmed Upside potential big moveFellow traders, As I discussed earlier in another trade idea I said I was waiting on a 1 hour candle close above the 1.30758 level. We got that, I would have wanted a stronger close above it, but nonetheless it still closed above the 1.30758 level. This confirms for me that price changed into an up trend. I am looking to enter with my bigger size buying position. I will however not yet enter. I will wait for atleast the 8 hour candle to close and enter on the nearest Demand zone on the higher timeframe. As for targets, It's possible we would have some resistance at 1.31638 level. If we breach this with strength I am looking it to hold the trade to the 1.3245 level which is the next big Supply Zone. As always stay safe and use proper risk management!
Long
by oguzhane12
Will the Pound Show a Slight Bullish Bias Today? (15/10/2024)The GBPUSD pair is expected to display a slight bullish bias today, 15/10/2024, based on the latest fundamental factors and market conditions. Traders and investors are closely watching the movements in the British pound against the U.S. dollar, as the market sentiment shifts amid key macroeconomic events. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers supporting this outlook: 1. UK Economic Data: CPI Expectations The UK inflation report, which is set to be released later this week, is on the radar for traders. Early forecasts indicate that inflation may remain slightly elevated, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates. This anticipation tends to lend strength to the pound, as higher interest rates make a currency more attractive to investors seeking better yields. In recent months, the BoE has been steadfast in its approach to combating inflation, a stance that has provided support for the British pound, making GBPUSD sensitive to any inflation-related news. With inflation still a concern, a bullish bias for the pound can be justified, particularly in the lead-up to the CPI report. 2. US Dollar Softness: Lower Treasury Yields On the U.S. side, the U.S. dollar (USD) has seen some softness due to declining Treasury yields and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the future of interest rates. Last week’s economic data pointed to potential cooling in the U.S. labor market and lower inflationary pressures, which have reduced the market's expectations for further rate hikes in 2024. With the Federal Reserve signaling that it may be nearing the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle, the U.S. dollar’s recent rally has stalled, giving room for pairs like GBPUSD to gain traction. This contributes to the bullish bias in the pair for today. 3. UK Political Stability and Brexit Sentiment Another factor supporting the pound’s slight bullish stance is the current phase of relative political stability in the UK. After the volatile post-Brexit years, the UK government is focused on stabilizing the economy. Any developments or positive sentiment surrounding trade agreements with the EU or other major trading partners could further boost the pound's strength. Brexit-related concerns have been less dominant recently, which has helped reduce the uncertainty that previously weighed on the pound. If this political calm continues, the GBPUSD pair could benefit from increased investor confidence in the pound. 4. Technical Analysis: Support at 1.2150 From a technical analysis perspective, the GBPUSD has found solid support around the 1.2150 level, which has held strong in recent trading sessions. As long as this support remains intact, the pair has the potential to make upward moves. Additionally, momentum indicators such as the RSI are showing signs of recovery from oversold conditions, hinting at a potential short-term bullish reversal. If the pair manages to break above the 1.2200 resistance level, we could see further gains towards the next key resistance level of 1.2300. 5. Global Market Sentiment In the broader market context, risk sentiment is playing a significant role in driving currency movements. If global markets continue to show risk-on sentiment, with equity markets rising and risk assets in favor, the British pound could see additional support against the U.S. dollar. Given the factors of strong inflation expectations in the UK, a softer U.S. dollar, and a technical setup that supports higher prices, the GBPUSD may be positioned for slight bullish movement today. Conclusion In conclusion, today’s GBPUSD outlook points towards a slightly bullish bias . While the U.S. dollar continues to show signs of weakness amid lower Treasury yields and potential pauses in the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, the British pound is drawing strength from expected higher inflation in the UK, the BoE’s hawkish stance, and a generally stable political environment. Traders should watch the upcoming inflation data and key resistance levels to confirm this bullish trend. Keywords for SEO: GBPUSD forecast, GBPUSD analysis, GBPUSD today, British Pound outlook, GBPUSD bullish, UK inflation report, Federal Reserve, GBPUSD technical analysis, Bank of England, Treasury yields, Brexit sentiment, Forex trading, GBPUSD trend 15/10/2024, GBPUSD prediction, Forex market news, currency trading
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
UK Jobs Data Boosts GBP: What's Next for GBPUSD?The British pound is getting a boost after the UK unemployment rate dropped to 4%, better than the expected 4.1%. Wage growth met forecasts, but the claimant count rose to 27.9k, higher than the expected 20.2k, which is a negative sign. This data supports GBPUSD, holding just above the September 11th low of 1.2999. A break below could lead to further declines, but if it stays above, it may rise past Monday's high of 1.3083, targeting 1.3130. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
by ThinkMarkets