GBPUSD 4H SHORT [UPdate]In line with expectations of a decline in GBPUSD, the price interacted with the primary order block. To feel safe in this position, I move the stop order to $1.29620
I expect the downward trend I mentioned in the main review to continue to my targets:
$1.28609
$1.28030
$1.27534
$1.26722
GBPUSD trade ideas
GBPUSD:This is a bullish situationThe GBP/USD is still fluctuating repeatedly at present. Taking various factors into account, there is a great deal of market noise in the current currency market, and many currency pairs are in a sideways trend.
The British pound has been fluctuating sideways for several weeks, and the market is digesting the previous significant upward rally. The 1.30 level on the upside serves as a resistance level, while the 1.29 level on the downside acts as a support level. The so-called "golden cross" has recently occurred, so this is a bullish market.
Trading strategy:
buy@1.2910
TP:1.2970-1.2990
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LEAP: GBPUSD Week 14 Swing Zone/LevelsWe'll stick with the same calculations as last week and before.
Price should follow the same logic as any mathematical principle—calculable, predictable, and consistent. The key variables are the broader market factors and the strength of the trend.
With that in mind, swing zones and levels are marked on the chart, and price will ultimately decide between option A or B.
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 31 March - 4 AprilMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rates, US and Canada’s Employment Data & Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
- RBA Interest Rate Decision
- US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
- Unemployment Rate in Canada
- Corporate Earnings Statements
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
GBPUSD Will Go Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.294.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.305.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GBPUSD Bullish breakout retestThe GBPUSD currency pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation towards the previous resistance.
The key trading level is at 1.2940 level, the previous consolidation price range. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 1.2940 level could target the upside resistance at 1.2994 followed by the 1.3070 and 1.3123 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 1.2940 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 1.2866 support level followed by 1.2813 and 1.2740.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Key Economic Data & Events – March 31
US: Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing index
China: Official PMIs (Manufacturing & Services)
UK: Lloyds Business Barometer, Consumer Credit, M4 (Money Supply)
Japan: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Housing Starts
Germany: CPI, Retail Sales, Import Prices
Italy: CPI
Central Banks: ECB’s Panetta & Villeroy speak
Relevance to Trading:
US, China, and Germany data impact equities, bonds, and FX (USD, CNY, EUR).
Inflation data (CPI) from Germany & Italy could influence ECB policy expectations.
PMI & industrial production data provide insights into global economic health.
ECB speakers may signal policy direction, affecting EUR volatility.
Weekly Analysis of GBP/USD: Neutral Outlook Amid Key Eco EventsThe GBP/USD currency pair has experienced range-bound trading following a correction from four-month highs against the US Dollar (USD). With a neutral bias, the coming week’s price movement will be heavily influenced by macroeconomic data releases and geopolitical developments, particularly Trump’s tariff policies and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.
Market Dynamics and Key Factors Impacting GBP/USD
US Tariffs and Their Impact on GBP/USD
President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, will be a crucial driver for the USD. If the tariff list is narrowed, it could ease concerns over economic slowdown, strengthening the USD and putting downward pressure on GBP/USD. Conversely, stronger-than-expected trade restrictions could increase risk aversion, potentially benefiting the Pound Sterling as a safer alternative in global trade.
UK Inflation and Bank of England Rate Expectations
The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February showed inflation at 2.8% YoY, slightly below the expected 2.9%. This lower inflation figure increased speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may cut interest rates in May, weakening GBP.
However, UK Retail Sales data for February surged by 1%, well above the expected -0.3% decline, indicating resilient consumer demand. This could counterbalance bearish sentiment and support GBP/USD in the near term.
US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Policy Outlook
The US economy remains a key influence on GBP/USD. Key economic releases this week include:
Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday: ADP Employment Change Report
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims & ISM Services PMI
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which could determine Fed rate expectations
Fed officials, including Raphael Bostic, have pushed back on multiple rate cuts, stating that he only sees one rate cut in 2025. This stance has helped the USD remain resilient, preventing GBP/USD from breaking above the 1.3000 resistance level.
Technical Outlook: GBP/USD Remains in a Bullish Setup
The daily chart suggests that GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias, with key indicators showing positive momentum:
The 14-day RSI remains near 60, indicating continued buying pressure.
GBP/USD is trading above its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2903, acting as initial support.
Key upside targets
3000 psychological level (must close above for sustained gains)
1.3048 (November 6, 2024 high)
1.3150–1.3200 resistance zone
1.3300 round figure (longer-term target)
Key downside levels
1.2903 (21-day SMA) – immediate support
1.2804 (200-day SMA) – major downside risk
1.2667 (50-day SMA) and 1.2614 (100-day SMA) – potential bearish targets if selling pressure increases
A sustained break above 1.3000 could lead to further bullish momentum, while failure to hold above 1.2903 could trigger a deeper pullback.
Outlook: Neutral Bias With Key Data Driving Volatility
Given the mix of bullish technical indicators and uncertain fundamentals, the GBP/USD outlook remains neutral. Trump’s tariffs and US employment data will be the primary catalysts for movement. Traders should closely monitor macroeconomic developments, particularly NFP numbers and any surprises from the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England.
If US data beats expectations, the USD may strengthen, pushing GBP/USD below 1.2900.
If the UK economy shows resilience and the BoE remains cautious on rate cuts, GBP/USD may retest 1.3000 and beyond.
Expect higher volatility this week as markets digest economic data and geopolitical developments.
GBP/USD Trade Setup: Targeting Wave 5 Extension to 1.3292Hey traders! GBP/USD is showing a beautiful impulsive structure, and it looks like we’re in the early stages of Wave 5. Based on the current Elliott Wave count, we have a clear setup with defined risk and a compelling reward.
Setup Breakdown:
Wave 1 and Wave 3 have completed.
Price is now pushing out of a consolidation that likely marks Wave 4.
The projected target for Wave 5, based on the 5 vs 1+3 Fibonacci extension, is sitting at 1.3292.
Trade Idea:
Entry: Current price (around 1.2907–1.2942 range).
Stop Loss: Below the previous Wave 4 low (a safe invalidation level).
Take Profit: 1.3292 (61.8% extension of Wave 1 + Wave 3).
Why This Trade Makes Sense:
Elliott Wave structure is clean and impulsive.
Alternation is respected: Wave 2 and Wave 4 differ in form.
Fib extension confluence adds extra conviction.
Defined entry and stop make risk management straightforward.
Risk Management Tip:
Always risk only a small percentage of your account—structure the position size so your stop loss aligns with your risk tolerance.
If price starts pushing impulsively, especially with higher volume, that could be the confirmation that Wave 5 is in motion.
Stay sharp, manage your risk, and let the waves guide your trade!