Strong sell area Reached our level
Same move as we predicted in our last idea
Now time arrived to change the trend
GBPUSD trade ideas
Possible movement of the pound/dollarIn my opinion, the cable move could be a deep correction in the ascending channel. Therefore, it can be expected to present buyers with a serious challenge along the way.
GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025)
1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates)
Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) .
Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) .
Interest Rate Differential:
4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0%
The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral.
2. 10-Year Bond Yields
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation .
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) .
Yield Spread:
4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26%
The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage.
3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context
Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis).
Drivers:
Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD.
BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP .
4. Carry Trade Directional Bias
GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP.
Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand.
Risks:
BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread.
Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD.
Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing.
Key Data and Events
US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates.
Summary Table
Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD)
Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50%
10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51%
Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) —
Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.)
DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support)
Conclusion
Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD.
Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains.
DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts.
Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts.
GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade .
stay cautious
#GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025)
1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates)
Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) .
Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) .
Interest Rate Differential:
4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0%
The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral.
2. 10-Year Bond Yields
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation .
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) .
Yield Spread:
4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26%
The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage.
3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context
Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis).
Drivers:
Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD.
BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP .
4. Carry Trade Directional Bias
GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP.
Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand.
Risks:
BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread.
Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD.
Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing.
Key Data and Events
US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates.
Summary Table
Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD)
Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50%
10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51%
Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) —
Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.)
DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support)
Conclusion
Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD.
Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains.
DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts.
Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts.
GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade .
stay cautious
#GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
GBPUSD Weekly overview Jun 1, 2025 – Jun 7, 2025We are approaching a strong HTF reversal level from lower prices. It means we might have some unexpectable strong bearish players in the market. I'll take a little less than normal for the bullish trades.
While the mid-term overview indicates us a bullish trend some bearish move won't surprise me.
*******************************************************
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
*******************************************************************
Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
GBPUSDGBP/USD Interest Rate, Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25–June 2025)
1. Current Interest Rates (Policy Rates)
Bank of England (BoE) Rate: 4.25% (cut by 25bps on May 7, 2025) .
Federal Reserve Rate: 4.25–4.50% (target range maintained as of May 29, 2025) .
Interest Rate Differential:
4.25% (BoE)−4.25–4.50% (Fed)=−0.25% to 0%
The Fed holds a slight advantage, but the differential is nearly neutral.
2. 10-Year Bond Yields
UK 10-Year Gilt Yield: 4.77% (May 21, 2025), near a one-month high due to sticky inflation .
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.51% (May 29, 2025) .
Yield Spread:
4.77% (UK)−4.51% (US)=+0.26%
The UK’s higher bond yield offers a modest carry trade advantage.
3. Dollar Index (DXY) Context
Current DXY Level: ~98.4 (testing key support as of May 2025, per prior analysis).
Drivers:
Fed’s steady rates and resilient US economic data support USD.
BoE’s dovish pivot (rate cuts) and UK inflation risks (April CPI at 3.5% YoY) weigh on GBP .
4. Carry Trade Directional Bias
GBP/USD Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish, driven by the +0.26% bond yield spread favoring GBP.
Mechanics: Investors borrow USD (lower policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding UK gilts, supporting GBP demand.
Risks:
BoE Dovishness: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread.
Fed Policy: Prolonged rate holds or hawkish signals may strengthen USD.
Inflation Dynamics: UK’s elevated CPI (3.5% YoY) vs. US disinflation could delay BoE easing.
Key Data and Events
US: Nonfarm payrolls (June 6), Fed speakers, and inflation updates.
Summary Table
Metric United Kingdom (GBP) United States (USD)
Policy Rate 4.25% 4.25–4.50%
10-Year Bond Yield 4.77% 4.51%
Yield Spread +0.26% (GBP over USD) —
Inflation (YoY) 3.5% (April 2025) ~2.6–3.0% (est.)
DXY Level — ~98.4 (testing support)
Conclusion
Interest Rate Differential: Neutral policy rates but a +0.26% UK bond yield advantage supports GBP/USD.
Carry Trade: Modest bullish bias for GBP due to higher gilt yields, though BoE dovishness and USD resilience cap gains.
DXY Outlook: USD strength may persist if Fed maintains rates, but GBP could benefit from sticky inflation delaying further BoE cuts.
Monitor UK inflation data and Fed rhetoric for directional catalysts.
GBPUSD is neutral on economic data approach,the next fed monetary policy decision will define the direction of trade .
stay cautious
#GBPUSD #DOLLAR #GBP
GBPUSD Bearish ZoneLooking at Monthly, Weekly and Daily, GBPUSD seems to have traded back into a bearish zone. Will be looking for short positions except my OB levels are invalidated.
GBPUSD MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSISHello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions , the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more price action to develop before taking any position. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
🧠💡 Share your unique analysis, thoughts, and ideas in the comments section below. I'm excited to hear your perspective on this pair .
💭🔍 Don't hesitate to comment if you have any questions or queries regarding this analysis.
GBP/USD Daily Chart – Approaching Key Reversal
📉 GBP/USD Daily Chart – Approaching Key Reversal Zone
Price has tapped into the major selling zone (around 1.38000), aligned with long-term trendline resistance.
🔻 Bearish Outlook Active:
If this level holds, we may see a rejection and a drop toward the demand zone near 1.29000–1.30000.
⚠️ Short-term buyers beware — this could be the last push before reversal.
💡 Watch for confirmation candles or a break of the minor support (yellow zone) to validate the move.
🗣️ Do you see a sell setup here, or are bulls still in control? Drop your view below 👇
#GBPUSD #ForexAnalysis #GreenFireForex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #ForexTrading
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GBPUSD Support & Resistance LevelsThese zones have been generated using a custom-built software tool, developed and refined over an extended period of time. The tool is the result of dedicated effort and research, aiming to identify high-probability support and resistance areas with precision.
GBPUSD TRADE SETUPWait for retest the entry level then take a trade for Sell otherwise skip this setup
GBP/USD – Sell Bias into NFP | Smart Money Play
Caption:
Price is rejecting a 1H inverse imbalance + FVG zone in premium, showing early signs of bearish flow. With NFP on deck, I'm expecting a draw on liquidity down into the Monthly FVG → 1H FVG/BB → 4H inverse IMB. Let price confirm via lower-timeframe CHoCH before executing. Volatility is likely to kick in mid-to-late week. A clean premium-to-discount is in play.
london break out strategy (my strategy) back test :2025 mayto learn is to share...
hello traders!
this is back test of london breakout strategy for gbp usd pair for month of the may.
i hope u read this see the idea that i had give me your comments and ideas ,maybe help me fix my mistakes, maybe it gives you some lead and etc. no more talking straight to the strategy ...
strategy summary the Strat focuses on breaking the range market of the asian session,
first u got to mark the high and low of the price between 4 am to 6 am utc then you have range that in the chart i showed like box , next we wait till 7 am utc , if price was out of the box zone we open a trade toward the trend( if it broke above you open a long and vise versa) or if it wasn't u simply wait for price to close above or below, then you open a trade with sl put on the opposite side of the box and profit set to 1.5 times of the sl. only one trade per day is acceptable .
there are some exception that you don't have to trade:
1.when there is bank holiday
2.when your sl would exceed 50 pip (that's high of a risk)
3. further effect of the news shall be studied that i didn't consider in this back test
I've put the results in an ai and asked it to analyze the results:
Summary Statistics
Total Trades: 19
Total Profit: +152.3 pips
Average Profit per Trade: +8.02 pips
Max Profit in a Trade: +49.0 pips
Max Loss in a Trade: -30.2 pips
Winning Trades: 10
Losing Trades: 9
Win Rate: 52.6%
Profit Factor: 1.74 (total gain / total loss)
GBPUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend.
🎯 Goal of this ideas is track order flow.
📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
💊 Tip
if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
GBPUSDtrend buy side on gbpusd this side is comes at reaccumulation so i think we are in phase b from next week so i take buy trade
LONG TERM GBPUSD DIRECTION ANALYSIS (JUNE 2025)Hi Traders,
Here my analysis for Long Term FX:GBPUSD Analysis. Based on the analysis, As we saw last week, the price already arrive at the Weekly Resistance which show the big movement. Currently, I will take oppurtunity for sell position untuk the valid support arrive at the zone im marking.
We will carry up more about the fundamental on Great Britain and US especially. The price will more aggressive by time.
GBP/USD Shorts from the daily supplyI’m anticipating a potential retracement as price has been heavily bullish and is now beginning to show signs of being overbought. After recently breaking major structure to the upside, there’s room for a temporary sell-off as price corrects before continuing higher.
I’ll be watching for possible reactions from the 59-minute demand zone for a minor bounce, but the more ideal long opportunity would be at the 12H demand zone around 1.3300, where structure is cleaner and confluences align.
Confluences for Short-Term Sells:
- A recent change of character (CHOCH) to the downside signals a shift in momentum
- A clean daily supply zone has been left behind that could initiate a deeper pullback
- Significant liquidity below, including the Asia low, ready to be swept
- For price to maintain long-term bullish movement, it must first correct, fill imbalances, and mitigate valid demand levels
P.S. If price drops further and breaks structure, we’ll likely see a new supply zone form. This will provide a closer and more refined opportunity to participate in the move.
Stay sharp and trade safe! 📉📈
Gbpusd June We are at the support level so before we can consider buy signal the four hours structure must be clear and if the support fail they we go down.
GBPUSD is Nearing an Important Support!!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring GBPUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.34400 zone, GBPUSD is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.34400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBPUSD Bearish Setup | Trend Reversal Setup in Progress...📉 Technical Outlook _
After a strong bullish rally within a parallel ascending channel, GBP/USD is now showing signs of potential reversal. Price action recently broke out of the channel and is failing to reclaim upward momentum, indicating that buyers may be losing control.
🔍 Key Observations:
🟪 Previous Consolidation led to the breakout
📈 Strong bullish structure inside the parallel channel
❌ Price has now exited the channel, with clear signs of rejection near 1.347x
📉 Bearish pattern projecting a potential drop to the support zone at 1.31521
⚠ Watch for This Bearish Scenario:
1. Liquidity grab or false breakout above short-term highs
2. Strong sell-off as momentum fades
3. Clean bearish continuation pattern toward 1.3150 support
✅ Bearish Confluences:
Breakdown from parallel channel
Series of lower highs forming
Weak recovery attempts
Clear downside target with prior support zone structure
🔷 Note: Keep an eye on macro news and USD strength before executing. This is a technical setup with potential, not a guarantee.
📊 What’s your bias? Bullish or Bearish? 👍 Like & 🔔 Follow for more technical setups!
GBP/USD – 1H Chart | Fibonacci-Based Bullish SetupWe’ve identified a bullish opportunity on GBP/USD using the Fibonacci technique. After confirming support near the retracement zone, price action is showing bullish continuation signs. Based on this, we are executing an instant buy trade with the following stats:
🔹 Pair: GBP/USD
🔹 Timeframe: 1H
🔹 Trend: Bullish (Fibonacci Technique)
🔹 Entry: Instant Buy @ 1.34699
🔹 Stop Loss: 1.34097
🔹 Take Profit 1: 1.35301
🔹 Take Profit 2: 1.35903
🔹 Lot Size: 0.17
🔹 Risk/Reward: 1:1 & 1:2
🔹 Risk: $200
🔹 Reward: $300
📊 Using Fibonacci retracement and price action confirmation for setup validation.
#GBPUSD #ForexTrading #FibonacciTrading #BullishSetup #RiskReward #TradingPlan #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexTrader #TradeSmart #ForexSignals #1HChart #BuySetup #ForexStrategy
Market next move 🚫 Disruption Points
1. No Clear Breakout Confirmation
Issue: The chart does not show a clear breakout of any recent highs or resistance levels.
Disruption: Without a break of a key level (like 1.3480–1.3500), the bullish target is premature.
2. Bearish Price Structure
Observation: The price has been making lower highs and lower lows over the last few candles.
Disruption: This may indicate a downtrend, not a setup for a bullish target.
3. Low Momentum
Issue: Volume appears to be declining, and recent bullish candles are smaller and weaker.
Disruption: The move toward the target may lack strength and could reverse without momentum.
