GBPUSD trade ideas
UK inflation heats up, Pound shrugsThe British pound has stabilized on Wednesday and is trading at 1.3389 in the European session, up 0.07% on the day. This follows a four-day losing streak in which GBP/USD dropped 1.5%. On Tuesday, the pound fell as low as 1.3378, its lowest level since June 23.
Today's UK inflation report brought news that the Bank of England would have preferred not to hear. UK inflation in June jumped to 3.6% y/y, up from 3.4% in May and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the highest level since January 2024 and is a stark reminder that inflation is far from being beaten. The main drivers of inflation were higher food and transport prices. Services inflation, which has been persistently high, remained steady at 4.7%. Monthly, CPI ticked up to 0.3% from 0.2%, above the market estimate of 0.2%.
It was a similar story for core CPI, which rose to 3.7% y/y from 3.5% in May, above the market estimate of 3.5%. Monthly, core CPI climbed 0.4%, above 0.2% which was also the market estimate.
The hot inflation report will make it more difficult for the BoE to lower interest rates and the money markets have responded by paring expectations of further rate cuts. Still, expectations are that the BoE will cut rates at the August 7 meeting, with a probability of around 80%, despite today’s higher-than-expected inflation numbers.
The UK releases wage growth on Thursday, which is the final tier-1 event prior to the August meeting. Wage growth has been trending lower in recent months and if that continues in the May reading, that could cement an August rate cut.
GBP USD LONGAs it is near the bottom side of the channel, we could see a correction toward the target shown on the chart, if it bounces from this level.
GBPUSD BUYGBP/USD trims some gains, back to the sub-1.3500 area
On Monday, GBP/USD recovered some of its recent losses and rose to multi-day highs over the 1.3500 yardstick, just to deflate a tad afterwards. The improving market sentiment makes it harder for the Greenback to find demand at the start of the week, allowing Cable to regain some lost balance.
GBP/USD pulled away from the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart after fluctuating at around that level earlier in the day and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator rose above 50, highlighting a loss of bearish momentum.
Looking north, the first resistance level could be spotted 1.3470 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, 50-period SMA) ahead of 1.3500 (static level, round level) and 1.3540 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). On the downside, support levels could be seen at 1.3400-1.3390 (round level, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.3300 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).
SUPPORT 1.352
SUPPORT 1.355
SUPPORT 1.358
RESISTANCE 1.344
GBPUSDSwing Long opportunity
- stalled and ranged around our major demand zone
- tested and rejected off our major bullish trendline
- bullish engulfing candles forming
- double bottom forming ( creating that W pattern ) potential for a reversal
- exhausted bearish wicks as you drop down the time frames
- SL just below demand zone
- TP at next major supply zone
Trading balanceTrading balance The price of the asset has rebounded from the balance zone. With the prospect of growth into the resistance zone.
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?GBP/USD is rising towards the resistance which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3603
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.3592
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3361
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
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GBPUSD Swing Outlook 14-07-2025Hello Traders!
It's been a while since my last post on the market.
Here's a breakdown of GBPUSD.
Daily Timeframe:
1. We have been in a bullish trend, price forming HH and respecting HL. (impulsive phase)
2. By dragging our Fibonacci level from swing low to swing high, we can clearly see potential discounted levels where we can look for buying opportunities again.
3.(Corrective phase) Current price action indicates to us that price has a potential of closing below our last HL, which will indicate MMS/CHOCH and a start of a bearish trend.
4. What we know is that in a bearish trend price respects LH and breaks LL, and we should be looking for selling opportunities.
5. By using the H4 timeframe we can look for internal swing points where we can drag our Fibonacci to identify best-selling opportunities at a premium level. (This will be counter trend trading, and we can capitalize on it until we are in discounted levels again)
GBPUSD – Potential Short Term Volatility Ahead This WeekSo far, the month of July has not been a good one for GBPUSD, undermined by the precarious state of the UK Labour government’s finances, a deteriorating growth backdrop, and shifting interest rate differentials back in favour of the US dollar. This has seen a liquidation of stale long positioning and a steady decline from a 40 month high of 1.3789 registered on July 1st to a low of 1.3419 seen earlier today.
Looking forward, it could be another challenging week for FX traders to navigate. There are several economic data releases in the US and UK to digest, starting with the latest US CPI release later this afternoon (1330 BST), followed by the UK CPI update tomorrow (0700 BST) and then the UK Employment release on Thursday (0700 BST). All of these may have the potential to shift trader thinking on the next interest rate moves from the Federal Reserve (Fed), who are currently expected to keep rates unchanged when they next meet on July 31st, and the Bank of England (BoE), who are expected to cut by 25bps (0.25%) on August 7th.
When the outcome of these events is combined with the uncertain backdrop for global trade as President Trump’s new tariff deadline approaches on August 1st, alongside his ability to drop market moving social media headlines on a whim, this week has the potential to be a volatile one for GBPUSD.
Technical Update: Watching Closing Defence of 38.2% Retracement Support
So far, July has seen GBPUSD enter a correction phase, as prices have sold off from the 1.3789 July 1st session high into Tuesday’s current 1.3419 low. As the chart below shows, this 2.7% decline, seen over little more than a 10 session period, is now approaching what some might class as a support focus at 1.3370.
This level is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 7th to July 1st phase of strength, and could be one that traders are now monitoring on a closing basis over coming sessions. While this level remains intact, some might argue there is still a positive uptrend pattern in place.
However, it is also important to consider what are the support and resistance levels on which to focus, if either 1.3370 is broken to the downside, or it continues to stem the current phase of weakness, even helps prompt fresh attempts at price strength.
Possible Support Levels:
As we’ve suggested, it could be the 1.3370 retracement level that represents the first support, with closing breaks below this level opening potential for a more extended phase of price declines.
While much will depend on future market sentiment and price trends, closes below 1.3370 may represent possibilities of further weakness towards 1.3244, which is equal to the lower 50% retracement level. This giving way, may in time result in tests of 1.3140, the May 12th session low.
Possible Resistance Levels:
While the 1.3370 retracement continues to hold current price declines, it might be successful in prompting fresh attempts at price strength.
With that in mind, if moves back higher do materialise, a resistance point to monitor on a closing basis could be 1.3586. This is the current level of the Bollinger mid-average and this giving way on a closing basis may in turn lead to further attempts at price strength to challenge 1.3789, the July 1st high again.
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GBP/USD could be gearing up for a 200-pip move?Start: We jump in at 1.3601 if it’s going up or filling the gap, or 1.3599 if it might drop.
Goal: We aim for 1.3800 if it goes up, or 1.3404 if it goes down.
Safety Stop: Like a safety net, we stop if it drops to 1.3544 (up plan) or rises to 1.3650 (down plan).
Chance: These are best guesses based on the chart’s clues!
Gbpusd set upGBP/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Bearish Setup in Play
Current Price: 1.34080
Trend Bias: Bearish (short-term)
Indicators:
EMA (9, close) – Price is consistently trading below the 9 EMA, reinforcing bearish momentum.
Volume: No significant uptick in buying activity; selling pressure remains dominant.
Technical Overview:
The GBP/USD pair is currently exhibiting a descending triangle pattern on the 4-hour timeframe. This structure is typically a bearish continuation pattern, especially after the steep downtrend from early July.
Resistance Trendline: A series of lower highs is compressing price action towards support, creating a descending ceiling.
Key Support Zone: 1.3370–1.3380 region is acting as horizontal support. This level has been tested multiple times, increasing the chances of an eventual breakdown.
Price Action Outlook:
The chart suggests a potential breakdown scenario:
A clean break below the 1.3370 support could trigger further downside, potentially targeting the 1.3200 psychological level next.
If price manages to break above the descending trendline, this bearish setup would be invalidated and a short-term relief rally could occur.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 1.3370 (critical zone), 1.3200 (next downside target)
Resistance: 1.3450 (trendline resistance), 1.3600 (recent swing high)
Potential Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice):
Short Bias: Watch for a 4H candle close below 1.3370 for possible short entries.
Stop-Loss: Above the descending trendline (~1.3460).
Take-Profit Targets: 1.3300 and 1.3200.
Summary:
GBP/USD is under pressure, trading in a descending triangle. Price action suggests a bearish continuation is likely if support fails. Traders should monitor for a breakout or breakdown confirmation before taking action.
GBPUSD — We Stand at the Rubicon. Major Breakout Is Brewing. FRLThe GBPUSD chart is presenting a rare moment of confluence and clarity — the perfect environment for a high-probability reversal. The market is pressed against a crucial decision point, and the coming breakout will define the next major trend.
Let’s get into the structure:
Key Structure: Double Bottom or Continuation?
We are currently inside a local corrective downtrend, nested within a much larger bullish channel. According to Fractal Reversal Law (FRL), this correction is showing signs of exhaustion and is likely to terminate with a reversal pattern — a double bottom is forming right now.
The neckline of this potential pattern lies at 1.3485, which also marks the origin of the last impulse wave. This is the Rubicon — a horizontal barrier that separates indecision from trend reversal.
✅ Why I Lean Long (Strong Bias for Reversal)
The local downtrend is weaker than the larger trend it counteracts — it’s corrective by nature.
FRL structure (Double Bottom) is clean and supported by price behavior near dynamic support.
100MA on the Daily sits just beneath, providing key confluence as price reacts.
MACD bullish divergence on H4 is developing right as the second bottom takes shape — classic timing.
Fundamentally, the USD still lacks momentum for a sustained rally — macro pressure leans against the bearish case.
🔴 Bearish Alternative?
Yes, we must acknowledge the possibility of a broader double top forming on the Daily timeframe. But for now, it’s only potential — not confirmed — and lacks structural symmetry and conviction. This is not the scenario I prioritize.
Execution Plan — No Emotion in the Uncertainty Zone
We won’t act emotionally inside the chop zone between 1.3300 and 1.3480.
We trade confirmation only:
A clean H1 close above 1.3485 activates the long setup — reversal confirmed by neckline break.
Alternatively, a Daily close below 1.3300 may validate the bearish breakdown.
Until then, we observe. But structurally, I believe the path of least resistance is up.
🔺 Target Zones:
If confirmed, this breakout has legs toward 1.3700–1.3900, based on the measured move from the base to neckline.
Stop-loss logic aligns naturally under 1.3300 — outside the pattern and below 100MA support.
Final Words
Markets rarely give such structured signals — and when they do, it pays to be patient.
Everything points to the potential completion of a local bearish phase.
All that’s left is the trigger — and then, the phase shift begins.
GBPUSD long from last day's lowGBPUSD reached lower than expected. My bias for today is still bullish. I am placing my SL at last day's low. You could target last day's high but I am aiming for a 3R.
Key level for GBPUSDKey level for the bulls highlighted in green. We've pulled deeeep into the discount of the daily bullish leg, which is ideal. We're more than likely going to see the sentiment reports flip to majority bearish, which again, further confluence (for me at least). Waiting for a clear 1-4h bullish BOS, liquidity sweep and imbalance. Only then will I look for a long term swing trade to the upside.
Lots of news this week which coincide well with level. From my experience, we may see a nice range created around this level, and then when news hits we'll start the move higher. That's my take at least, let me know your thoughts.
Pound under pressure ahead of US, UK inflation reportsThe British pound has edged up higher on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3453, up 0.21% on the day. Earlier, GBP/USD touched a low of 1.3416, its lowest level since June 23.
All eyes will be on the UK inflation report for June, which will be released on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4% y/y, as is core CPI at 3.5%. Monthly, both the headline rates are expected to stay steady at 0.2%.
Has the BoE's battle to lower inflation stalled? The BoE was looking good in March, when inflation eased to 2.6%, but CPI has rebounded to 3.4%, well above the BoE's inflation target of 2%. Services data has been especially sticky, although it dropped to 4.7% in May, down from 5.4% a month earlier.
At 3.4%, inflation is stuck at its highest level since February 2024 and that will complicate plans at the BoE to renew interest rate cuts in order to kick-start the weak UK economy. The central bank has lowered rates twice this year and would like to continue trimming the current cash rate of 4.25%. The Bank meets next on Aug. 7 and Wednesday's inflation data could be a significant factor in the rate decision.
In the US, if June inflation data rises as is expected, fingers will quickly point to President Trump's tariffs as finally having an impact. Recent inflation reports have not shown a significant spike higher due to the tariffs, which were first imposed in April. However, the tariffs may have needed time to filter throughout the economy and could be felt for the first time in the June inflation reading.
The Fed meets next on July 30, with the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a hold, according to CME's FedWatch. For September, the odds of a rate cut stand at 59%. Today's inflation report could cause a shift in these numbers.
GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.3454 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.3484
1.3396 and 1.3366 are the next support levels
GBP/USD – Falling Wedge Breakout & Bullish Reversal Setup
🔹 1H Chart by PULSETRADESFX
Cable has broken out of a clean falling wedge pattern within a broader descending channel. Price respected key demand at 1.34060 – 1.34456, followed by a bullish breakout and retest of the wedge resistance.
With momentum now favoring the bulls, a recovery toward 1.35724 is on the cards as long as price sustains above 1.3445.
📌 Trade Plan:
Entry: 1.34507
Stop Loss: 1.34060 (Below demand zone)
Take Profit: 1.35724 (Channel midline resistance)
This setup highlights early reversal signals backed by structure, demand reaction, and wedge breakout.
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✅ Technical Highlights:
Falling wedge breakout
Retest confirmation
Demand zone bounce
Risk-to-reward > 2:1
📅 July 15, 2025
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#GBPUSD #ForexSignals #ChartAnalysis #BullishSetup #PriceAction #TradingView #PULSETRADESFX
GBPUSD: Price Action at Critical JunctureApproaching a Deciding Level : GBPUSD is currently trading near a critical "Deciding Level" (highlighted in grey) around 1.33927. This zone appears to be a crucial pivot point, where the market will likely determine its next significant move.
Uptrend Line as Dynamic Support : An ascending trendline (light blue) originating from January 2025 has consistently provided dynamic support for the price. The current price action is testing this trendline, making its integrity vital for the continuation of the bullish structure.
Identified First Resistance Level Above : A "1st Resistance Level" (highlighted in red) is clearly marked around 1.36000. This level has proven to be a ceiling for recent upward movements and represents the immediate hurdle for bulls.
Strong First Support Level Below : Below the current price, a "1st Support Level" (highlighted in green) is identified between approximately 1.31000 and 1.32000. This zone previously acted as strong support in late April/early May and could serve as a significant demand area if the price breaks below the "Deciding Level" and the trendline.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
GBP/USD — Potential Bullish Reversal Setup | Long Bias Above Sup🧠 Thesis:
GBP/USD is showing early signs of a potential bullish reversal from a key confluence zone. While price has recently tested short-term descending channel, we’re currently testing a strong ascending trendline support and prior demand zone. This setup offers a favorable long-risk scenario — so long as price remains above 1.3335 (invalid level).
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
Descending Channel: Price has been in a corrective downward channel since early July. This pullback appears orderly and corrective rather than impulsive.
Support Zone: We are seeing strong reactions from the 1.3400–1.3440 area, which aligns with:
Previous consolidation zone (mid-May).
200 EMA on the 4H.
Long-term ascending trendline support (from April lows).
Bullish RSI Divergence: RSI is testing oversold territory (~32) with potential for bullish divergence forming — a classic early signal for a bounce.
EMA Cluster: 50 EMA has been breached but price is testing the 200 EMA as last-resort dynamic support. If held, this further adds to the bullish case.
🧭 Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Bias (Preferred)
If price holds above the trendline support and breaks out of the descending channel, we could see a bullish impulse toward:
🎯 TP1: 1.3600 (prior structure)
🎯 TP2: 1.3770 (trendline extension & fib confluence)
Confirmation trigger: Break and close above 1.3500 resistance (channel breakout).
❌ Invalidation:
A decisive break below 1.3335 (marked in red) invalidates this idea and shifts bias back to bearish — potential deeper pullback toward 1.3200s.
⚠️ Risk Management:
Entry zone: 1.3430–1.3450 (near support)
Stop loss: Below 1.3335
Risk-reward: >2.5:1 on a successful breakout
📝 Conclusion:
This is a classic trend-continuation play with clean structure and a logical invalidation point. The market is offering a textbook “buy-the-dip” scenario off strong multi-timeframe support. Patience is key — wait for confirmation before sizing in.
GBPUSD at Trendline support GBPUSD is Trending in uptrend and currently has reached trendline support and from this area the price may pullback to higher. Let us see
GBPUSD SHORTMarket structure bearishh on HTFs 3
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Around Psychological Level 1.34500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 5.02
Entry 115%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
GBPUSD POSSIBLE TREND CHANGE?Reached a strong weekly resistance and pushed down. Broke daily/H4 support. Retesting zone with 50EMA rejection. Looking at 1.32500 as 1st target
