GBPUSD Technical Analysis by TradingDONIf the Pound closes with a bearish candle below the Fibonacci level at 1.29456 on the hourly chart, I’m setting my target at 1.28849—that’s where you’ll see the panda.
GBPUSD trade ideas
Weekly Analysis of GBP/USD: Neutral Outlook Amid Key Eco EventsThe GBP/USD currency pair has experienced range-bound trading following a correction from four-month highs against the US Dollar (USD). With a neutral bias, the coming week’s price movement will be heavily influenced by macroeconomic data releases and geopolitical developments, particularly Trump’s tariff policies and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.
Market Dynamics and Key Factors Impacting GBP/USD
US Tariffs and Their Impact on GBP/USD
President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, will be a crucial driver for the USD. If the tariff list is narrowed, it could ease concerns over economic slowdown, strengthening the USD and putting downward pressure on GBP/USD. Conversely, stronger-than-expected trade restrictions could increase risk aversion, potentially benefiting the Pound Sterling as a safer alternative in global trade.
UK Inflation and Bank of England Rate Expectations
The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February showed inflation at 2.8% YoY, slightly below the expected 2.9%. This lower inflation figure increased speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may cut interest rates in May, weakening GBP.
However, UK Retail Sales data for February surged by 1%, well above the expected -0.3% decline, indicating resilient consumer demand. This could counterbalance bearish sentiment and support GBP/USD in the near term.
US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Policy Outlook
The US economy remains a key influence on GBP/USD. Key economic releases this week include:
Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday: ADP Employment Change Report
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims & ISM Services PMI
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which could determine Fed rate expectations
Fed officials, including Raphael Bostic, have pushed back on multiple rate cuts, stating that he only sees one rate cut in 2025. This stance has helped the USD remain resilient, preventing GBP/USD from breaking above the 1.3000 resistance level.
Technical Outlook: GBP/USD Remains in a Bullish Setup
The daily chart suggests that GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias, with key indicators showing positive momentum:
The 14-day RSI remains near 60, indicating continued buying pressure.
GBP/USD is trading above its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2903, acting as initial support.
Key upside targets
3000 psychological level (must close above for sustained gains)
1.3048 (November 6, 2024 high)
1.3150–1.3200 resistance zone
1.3300 round figure (longer-term target)
Key downside levels
1.2903 (21-day SMA) – immediate support
1.2804 (200-day SMA) – major downside risk
1.2667 (50-day SMA) and 1.2614 (100-day SMA) – potential bearish targets if selling pressure increases
A sustained break above 1.3000 could lead to further bullish momentum, while failure to hold above 1.2903 could trigger a deeper pullback.
Outlook: Neutral Bias With Key Data Driving Volatility
Given the mix of bullish technical indicators and uncertain fundamentals, the GBP/USD outlook remains neutral. Trump’s tariffs and US employment data will be the primary catalysts for movement. Traders should closely monitor macroeconomic developments, particularly NFP numbers and any surprises from the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England.
If US data beats expectations, the USD may strengthen, pushing GBP/USD below 1.2900.
If the UK economy shows resilience and the BoE remains cautious on rate cuts, GBP/USD may retest 1.3000 and beyond.
Expect higher volatility this week as markets digest economic data and geopolitical developments.
Potential evening star pattern near a resistance level at 1.295In the 1H timeframe, we observe a bearish trend where prices have consistently failed to break above previous highs. The recent price action shows a potential evening star pattern near a resistance level at 1.29500. The EMA confirms downward momentum, and the ATR indicates volatility has been tightening, suggesting a possible breakout. Given the RSi is hovering at 40, it shows bearish momentum building up. Thus, entering at 1.28970, with a stop loss set at 1.29600 (just above recent swings) and a take profit target at 1.28000 aligns with a good risk-reward ratio.
Uptrend I am trying out a new strategy using orderblock as my entry. This is my first trail using this
GBPUSD GBPUSD Analysis & Signal (1H Timeframe)
📅 Date: March 23, 2025
On the GBP/USD chart, the price has reached a key resistance zone around 1.29629 after an uptrend, showing signs of rejection. This resistance aligns with a descending trendline, adding to the selling pressure.
Currently, the price is heading toward the demand zone marked between 1.28613 and 1.28117, which could act as a strong support level.
Signal:
Sell:
📍Entry Point: 1.29114 (current price)
🔴Stop Loss: 1.29629 (above resistance)
🟢Take Profit 1: 1.28613
🟢Take Profit 2: 1.28117
⚠️Risk Management:
With the stop loss set above the resistance, the risk-to-reward ratio (R:R) for this trade is at least 1:2. It’s recommended to risk only 1-2% of your capital on this trade.
📝Note: Before entering the trade, wait for additional confirmations (e.g., reversal candlestick patterns or a break of the zone) and assess market conditions.
TP HITWas a bumper ride after sweeping my SL but made it to TP1, let see if the market will continue in an uptrend or i close
GBP/USD Price Action Update📊 GBP/USD Price Action Update 🇬🇧💵
GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.2916, showing signs of a potential retracement before its next move.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Supply Zone (Resistance): 1.3000 - 1.3050 📍
🔴 This red zone represents a strong resistance level where price previously reversed. If GBP/USD breaks above this, we may see further bullish momentum.
✅ Demand Zone (Support): 1.2814 - 1.2854 📍
🟢 Buyers are expected to step in around these green zones, making them strong support levels for a potential bounce.
⚡ Possible Trade Setups:
📉 Bearish Scenario: Price may drop towards the 1.2854 - 1.2814 demand zone before reversing upwards.
📈 Bullish Scenario: If price finds support in the demand zone, it could rally back toward the 1.3000+ resistance area.
📢 Trading Tip:
Wait for confirmations in the key zones before taking positions. Watch for price reactions and volume changes before executing trades! 🔥
#fxforever #fxf #GBPUSD #ForexTrading #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading #SmartMoney #ForexSignals #TradingStrategy #MarketAnalysis #TradeSmart
GJ SHORTStill on a H4 downward swing leg.
On the H4 there’s liquidity at 1.29919 and an imbalance in M30 at 1.30000 area which i’m hoping price will go to cover.
Verdict;
I’ll be looking for a sell pullback at least up to 1.26500 before hunting buy continuations
GBP/USD: Possible Triangle Formation (H8)Hi Traders!
GBP/USD: Possible Triangle Formation and Growth to 1.31500
On the 8-hour GBP/USD chart, a contracting triangle appears to be forming as wave 4. The pattern is not yet fully completed, but it is in its final stage.
If the triangle is confirmed, we could see an upward movement in the pair. The primary target for growth is 1.31500, the 2023 high. A further rise to 1.32600 is also possible, but 1.31500 may act as strong resistance.
However, the market is currently influenced by multiple factors, so the scenario depends on the confirmation of the pattern. If the triangle plays out, the British pound may strengthen against the US dollar.
GBPUSD Will Go Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.294.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.305.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
sell-buy-Great Sell!Hello all. market needs at least a new historical low. lets see what happen. do you agree? leave a comment of ur idea (wink)
GBPUSD: Potential Bearish accelerated by Tarrifs
Watching GBPUSD closely at the 1.2970 level where we're seeing significant resistance. The high-volume node at 1.293 on the VRVP indicator suggests this is a key battleground.
Key observations:
- EURUSD vs GBPUSD divergence (unusual strength in GBP)
- Early MACD bearish signals on daily
- Price testing major liquidity zone (1.293-1.297)
From a fundamental perspective, BoE hawkishness has supported GBP, but underlying UK economic data doesn't justify continued outperformance.
Looking for rejection at current levels with potential move toward 1.275 support. If that breaks, expect further downside.
Today's tariff announcement could accelerate this bearish scenario. The proposed trade measures between the US and key partners will likely boost USD demand as a safe haven, putting additional pressure on GBP. The UK's trade-dependent economy makes it particularly vulnerable to escalating trade tensions, potentially becoming a catalyst for the breakdown we're technically setting up for. Let's see
POTENTIAL LONG POSITIONS ON GBP/USDGBP/USD 1H - This is another pair I have been looking at that is holding some good potential. This market has been bullish for some time on the higher timeframes.
We saw that price was breaking lows and respecting areas of Supply within this ranging market, however we have now seen that these characteristics have reversed and price is actually starting to breaking highs, protect lows and trade higher.
You can see that the last high that set the lowest low within what looks to be a potential corrective wave was broken, giving us our first break to the upside. We have then seen another one take place after price has traded into another area of interest.
This second break is giving us further confluence to suggest potential bullishness. Aligning with our GBP/JPY analysis. I want to see price now trade down and into the Demand Zone I have marked out, deliver us with another break to the upside. This would give me confirmation to look to go long.
XAGUSD, DXY, EURUSD & GBPUSD Daily Trade SetupsIn this update we review the recent price action in Silver, the Dollar Index, EURUSD & GBPUSD and identify the next high-probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target. To review today's video analysis, click here!
The Day AheadWednesday, April 2
Data Releases: US March ADP report, February factory orders, Japan March monetary base, France February budget balance.
Central Banks: Speeches from Fed’s Kugler, ECB's Schnabel, and Escriva.
Trump Tariff Announcement: Trump’s team is finalizing options for a 4 p.m. announcement, considering a tiered system with flat rates or a customized approach.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GBPUSD: Bearish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the GBPUSD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GBPUSD InsightWelcome, Subscribers!
We’re glad to have you all here. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- Reuters reported that the U.S. has no plans to negotiate with the European Union until next week's reciprocal tariff announcement.
- President Trump, through Truth Social, warned that if the EU and Canada cooperate to economically harm the U.S., he would impose significantly higher tariffs.
- In the U.K., the persistent fiscal deficit issue has once again drawn attention, leading to a rise in U.K. government bond yields. The British government has revised its 2024 GDP growth forecast downward from 2% to 1%.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ March 28: U.K. Q4 GDP, U.S. February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
GBPUSD Chart Analysis
After reaching the 1.30000 level, GBPUSD has failed to show a clear trend and continues to move within the lower range of this level. If it fails to break above 1.30000 and moves downward, it may decline to 1.28000 before rebounding toward 1.31000. Conversely, if an upward trend continues, it is likely to break 1.31000 and rise further toward 1.34000.
My idea on GU I'm looking at GU to give me a CHOCH on the 1H as we have seen price respected the 4H demand.
In summary: A buy before a sell but if price breaks the 4H low then we will be looking for shorts to the 1D demand to take price higher.
Trade outlook 3/27/25Trade outlook 3/27/25 video for my accountabilty partner what i am gonna trade for today.
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 27, 2025 GBPUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
14:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is showing signs of recovery, having rebounded from the previous session's losses to reach 1.2910 during Thursday's Asian trading session. The pair is strengthening as the US dollar remains under pressure from lower Treasury yields: 2-year and 10-year yields are at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. Market participants are monitoring upcoming US economic data, including weekly initial jobless claims and the final Q4 annualised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, scheduled for release later today.
However, GBP/USD gains may be constrained due to an escalation in risk-off sentiment and a rise in US trade policy. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25 per cent tariffs on car imports, which will come into effect on April 2, with duty collection starting the following day. However, a one-month delay will be granted for imports of auto parts. This has led to heightened global trade tensions and added uncertainty to the markets.
On Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem issued a statement that was critical of the tariff policy, joining other Federal Reserve chiefs in expressing concerns. Musalem warned that the measures are disrupting the US economy, increasing uncertainty and pushing inflation higher.
The release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February showed inflation falling faster than expected, leading to a weakening of the Pound Sterling (GBP). The lower CPI reading has led to speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may be leaning towards easing monetary policy.
The core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, falling short of the 2.9% forecast and down from January's 3.0%. The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile goods, rose by 3.5%, below the anticipated 3.6% and the previous reading of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, the core CPI increased by 0.4%, following a 0.1% decline in January, falling short of the 0.5% forecast. Inflation in the services sector, a key focus area for the Bank of England, remained steady at 5%.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.29000, SL 1.29700, TP 1.28100
