
British Pound / U.S. Dollar forum

Good Going! All the best for the trade.

It still cannot decide the direction even after the news! but overall bearish (getting a support from HTF Mean) = STUCK
Its a good trait to get ready for the Weekend party!
Later!


Key Zones to Watch:
> 1.3260–1.3270: Demand zone - the spike low.
> If this breaks convincingly, GU could bleed down to 1.3225 or even 1.3200 intraday.
> 1.3310–1.3335: Intraday resistance. Price might revisit if bulls reclaim strength.
Tactical Bias is Neutral to bullish short-term, as long as 1.3260 holds.
Bears only take control if we close candles below 1.3255 with volume.
So, nothing has been decided yet, stay in cash! NO FOMO / FUD!
GBPUSD Intraday Trade Setups - May 2, 2025
💼 Trade Setup 1: Intraday Buy
Entry: ⬇️ 1.32623
Stop Loss: 🔴 1.32381 (Below 78.6% Fibonacci level)
Take Profit 1: 🟢 1.32850 (Daily pivot confluence)
Take Profit 2: 🟢 1.33020 (Liquidity pool high)
Reason: Price tests 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (1.32600-1.32700 zone) with RSI bullish divergence on 15-minute chart. Strong absorption detected at 1.32580-1.32650 order block.
💼 Trade Setup 2: Intraday Sell
Entry: ⬆️ 1.32949
Stop Loss: 🔴 1.33190 (Above 23.6% Fib extension)
Take Profit 1: 🟢 1.32730 (4H swing low)
Take Profit 2: 🟢 1.32500 (Institutional VWAP support)
Reason: Rejection at 38.2% Fibonacci resistance (1.32900-1.33000 zone) with bearish MACD crossover. Price aligns with weekly opening imbalance zone.
NFP Data Just Dropped :
Actual: 177K 👀 better than forecast 130K, but still lower than previous 185K)
Unemployment: 4.2% (flat—no surprise)
Market Reaction at first glance:
GU spiked down initially , that’s algo traders reacting to the headline beat on NFP.
But it's not a strong beat, just a “not terrible” one. Still slower job growth vs. last month.
This is "meh-strong" data Not weak enough to crash USD (We still holding Shorts on GU and longs in GJ)
> If GU reclaims above 1.3325–1.3340, expect a short squeeze toward 1.3370+
> If it holds below 1.3280, continuation lower to 1.3250 and 1.3180 is in play
> Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):
Forecast: 130K
Previous: 228K > 185 Public Revised
Expecting a big slowdown in job creation
> Unemployment Rate:
Forecast: 4.2%
Previous: 4.2%
No change expected, but if it ticks up = bearish for USD
Stay in Cash! Until a clear direction!
1. Weak NFP (< 100K or job loss) + Unemployment rises
DXY drops hard
USD gets smoked
GBPUSD spikes → could aim for 1.3400+
2. Mild Miss (NFP ~110–130K) + Unemployment steady
Mixed reaction
GU might spike initially, then chop as traders digest
Could trap both sides before trending
3. Strong Surprise (NFP > 170K) + Unemployment drops
USD pumps
GU dumps hard — 1.3280 or even 1.3250 gets challenged
Narrative is that Jobs market is solid, Fed may still stay hawkish = Dollar strong