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GBP/USD_SPT - GBP/USD

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GBPUSD_SPT trade ideas

GBPUSD: Short-term selling strategy !Hello everyone! Let’s dive into today’s analysis of the GBPUSD pair and explore what’s happening in the market. On the 1-hour chart, GBPUSD is experiencing relatively low volatility, trading around the 1.296 level. Here’s a breakdown of the key elements to consider: Trend Overview GBPUSD remains under selling pressure with a clear downtrend in place. The recent rebound of the USD since the beginning of the week has added extra resistance to the British Pound’s recovery. Market Sentiment Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential Fed rate cuts, but with no immediate action expected, the preference leans towards a selling strategy. This bearish outlook is currently favored as a profit-making plan. Technical Insights EMA 34 & 89: These indicators show slight reversals but with minimal volatility, favoring the overall bearish trend. Double Top Pattern: A recent double top formation signals strong selling pressure, with bears actively defending the downtrend. Price Action: The price is moving toward lower profit targets, while also testing for new bullish momentum at marked support levels. Based on these factors, I’m leaning towards a “sell on rallies” strategy. How about you? What’s your take on GBPUSD today?
Short
by Pierce_Bowers
UK Jobs Numbers; Dovish Surprise?7:00 am GMT tomorrow welcomes UK employment data for September. Expectations heading into the event show economists forecast regular pay (excludes bonuses) to have fallen to 4.7% in the three months to September (y/y) from August’s reading of 4.9% (maximum and minimum estimate range between 4.8% and 4.6%), while pay that includes bonuses is expected to have ticked slightly higher to 3.9% in the three months to September (y/y) from 3.8% in August (maximum and minimum estimate range between 4.0% and 3.6%). The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.1% in the three months to September from August’s reading of 4.0% (maximum and minimum estimate range between 4.3% and 4.0%). Bank of England: Markets Pricing in a Pause for December In an 8-1 vote, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced another 25 basis point cut at last week’s meeting, which was widely expected by both markets and economists. We have one more policy meeting this year on 19 December, and markets, at least for now, are leaning toward a pause (82% probability is assigned to a hold). According to the minutes, inflation is expected to remain elevated for longer than expected due to the recent budget expected to boost inflation by 0.5%. However, you may recall that CPI inflation data (Consumer Price Index) cooled more than expected in the twelve months to September to 1.7% (economists pencilled in 1.9% as the median estimate), down from 2.2% in August. GBP Outperforming Ahead of the Data The GBP (British pound) has been a strong outperformer this year; as shown on the chart below, the GBP is outperforming all G10 peers, albeit the USD has been gaining strongly thanks to the ‘Trump Trade’. However, in terms of CFTC positioning, demand for the GBP slowed from being strongly overstretched to the upside, though a miss in the data tomorrow could spark an unwind in remaining longs. Something else worth taking on board ahead of tomorrow’s print is that while the GBP continues to outperform, economic data has been surprising to the downside, according to the CitiFX Economic Surprise Index for the UK. This has created a divergence between data and price. How to Trade the Event? As noted above, the GBP is still overstretched to the upside, with economic data surprising to the downside, thus offering clear divergence. The GBP (and rate pricing, for that matter) does not reflect what is happening with the data. It suggests more of a hawkish depiction. With this being the case, for a dovish trade – to short the GBP and trade out of the upcoming risk event – traders will likely look for the unemployment rate to reach or surpass the market’s maximum estimate of 4.3%. You may also recall that should we see an unemployment rate of 4.3% or higher, this would also be north of the BoE’s updated forecast for Q4 24, which is now at 4.2% (down from August’s forecast of 4.4%). GBP sellers will also be likely looking for wages to come in at or below the market’s minimum estimates, as well as a drop in employment change. Regarding potential short positions, technical studies also reveal room for bears to stretch their legs on the monthly scale until support coming in at US$1.2715. Adding to this, daily price is on the doorstep of retesting potentially vulnerable support from US$1.2837. While this level may persuade some buying, we must take into account that last week’s test of this support failed to drive things beyond resistance between US$1.3092 and US$1.3041, highlighting weakness from buyers and the possibility for follow-through downside towards support at US$1.2710 (located just beneath the monthly support target). Nevertheless, a caveat to be aware of is the credibility of the data from the Office for National Statistics, which remains in question, though it still remains a market-moving print.
Short
by FPMarkets
GBP/USD falls ahead of UK employment reportThe British pound is lower on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2870, down 0.33% on the day. The pound is coming of a sixth straight losing week, declining 3.5% during that time. It’s a quiet day on the data calendar, with no US events and only one minor UK release. The UK releases the employment report for the three months to September on Tuesday. Job growth soared by 373 thousand in the prior report, crushing the market estimate of 250 thousand. The labor market is expected to reverse directions, with a market estimate of -50 thousand. As well, the unemployment rate is projected to inch up to 4.1%, up from 4%. Wage growth excluding bonuses is expected to fall to 4.7% in the three months to September, down from 4.9% in the previous report. Wage growth has been easing but is still high and BoE policymakers are concerned about the possibility of a wage-price spiral. The strong growth in wages has contributed to high inflation in the services sector. The BoE holds its final policy meeting in December and Tuesday’s jobs report could impact market expectations. The BoE reduced rates by 25 basis points last week to 4.75% but with inflation falling to 1.7% in September, more rate cuts are likely on the way. A host of Federal Reserve members will deliver remarks on Tuesday and investors will be looking for clues about future rate moves. The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points last week, a move that was well-telegraphed in advance. What will the Fed do at the December meeting? That is much less clear, as the markets have priced in a pause at 23%, a 25-basis cut at 2.9%, and a 50-basis cut at 22%, according to the CME’s FedWatch. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2870. Below, there is support at 1.2822 There is resistance at 1.2933 and 1.2981
by OANDA
To analyze the GBP/USD chart using the trending strategy, we canTo analyze the GBP/USD chart using the trending strategy, we can observe the following key points: 1. **Current Trend**: The chart shows a bearish trend, indicated by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The price is currently fluctuating around the 1.28728 mark, suggesting a continuation of this downward momentum. 2. **Support and Resistance Levels**: - A notable resistance level is seen around 1.29164 (marked as "Minutes high"), which the price failed to break above multiple times. - Support is established around the 1.28724 level ("Minutes low"). The repeated testing of this support implies it may hold if the price approaches it again. 3. **Price Action**: The recent downward movements, characterized by sharp declines and retracements to upper levels, indicate market sellers are actively pushing the price lower. The Heikin Ashi candles also demonstrate a series of red candles, contributing to the bearish sentiment. 4. **Entry and Exit Points**: - A potential sell opportunity could arise if the price breaks below the current support (1.28724), confirmed by subsequent price action. - Conversely, a reversal signal would be indicated if the price rises and breaks above the resistance level (1.29164), suggesting a possible shift to a bullish trend.
Short
by Simeon6w
Time to Short GBP/USD The GBP/USD currency pair has recently experienced a pronounced bearish trend, breaking crucial support below the 1.29 level. This movement indicates a failure in its previous bullish breakout attempt, which has led to cautious sentiment among traders. Currently, the pair is navigating through a volatile trading environment characterized by numerous fluctuations, prompting a warning for traders dealing with GBP pairs like GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Key Actionable Insights and Takeaways - GBP/USD's recent drop highlights the ongoing bearish momentum, prompting traders to seek short positions. - Watch for potential rebounds; however, any stabilization or upward movement will likely face resistance around 1.29. - Continued focus on the US dollar's performance against the pound will drive the direction of USD. Summary of Expert Opinions on GBP/USD Experts are largely anticipating further depreciation of the GBP against the USD, with a bearish outlook predominating in their analyses. The perspective rests heavily on economic fundamentals, particularly focusing on upcoming inflation data which may further influence currency valuations. Based on the wisdom of all professional traders - Target 1: 1.27663 - expected in the near term. - Target 2: 1.27000 - for a longer perspective within the upcoming weeks. - Stop 1: 1.2900 - the recent high and psychological resistance level. - Stop 2: 1.2950 - providing additional overhead protection for shorts. Notable News or Events Affecting GBP/USD Upcoming economic data releases, particularly inflation metrics from both the US and UK, will play a crucial role in shaping the pair's trajectory. A stronger- than-expected US inflation report could bolster the greenback, while signs of inflationary pressure from the UK could conversely weaken the pound.
Short
by CrowdWisdomTrading