GBPUSD_SPT trade ideas
GBP/USD Daily Chart Analysis – June 20, 2025📉 GBP/USD Daily Chart Analysis – June 20, 2025 📊
📌 Chart Overview:
The GBP/USD pair is currently experiencing a critical technical phase. After a strong bullish rally from January 2025, price action has approached a key resistance level near the 1.3600 zone. Here's the detailed breakdown:
🟦 Key Highlights:
🔹 Resistance Zone 💥
Price is testing a major horizontal resistance between 1.3450 – 1.3600. This area has acted as a supply zone where sellers are currently active.
🔹 Trendline Support 🔺
A long-standing bullish trendline, active since early 2025, has been retested multiple times, confirming the trend’s strength.
🔹 Retest in Progress 🔄
Price recently pulled back after hitting the resistance and is now retesting the broken trendline, indicating a potential shift in trend if the trendline fails to hold.
🔹 Fake Breakout ⚠️
An earlier attempt to break below the trendline in April turned out to be a false breakout, which fueled bullish continuation. A similar scenario could be developing.
📊 Technical Outlook:
📈 If price breaks and closes above 1.3600, it would indicate strong bullish momentum and could open doors toward new highs.
📉 However, if the trendline breaks convincingly and retest fails, sellers may gain control with potential downside targets around 1.3200 and 1.3000.
📍 Conclusion:
GBP/USD is at a make-or-break zone 🧨. Traders should monitor the reaction at the trendline and resistance closely. Breakout or rejection here will shape the mid-term direction.
🔔 Watch for confirmation signals before entering positions.
GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 20 June 2025
GBPUSD: ⬆️ Buy
- GBPUSD reversed from support zone
- Likely to rise to the resistance level at 1.3600
GBPUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone located between the support level 1.3400 (former resistance from April), lower daily Bollinger Band and 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.he upward reversal from this support zone continues the active daily uptrend from the start of this year.
GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level at 1.3600 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (5) earlier this month).
GBP/USD Stable as BoE Vote SplitsThe pound steadied near 1.34 following the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates. The vote revealed deeper division than expected, with six members supporting a hold and three pushing for a 25 basis point cut, contrary to forecasts of a 7-2 split.
The BoE faces a tough balancing act as it weighs sticky inflation, geopolitical risks, and the economic drag of US tariffs.
Resistance is seen at 1.3500, while support holds at 1.3415.
Sell trade GBP/USD Sell Trade Note:
The GBP/USD pair is currently under bearish pressure, reflecting stronger USD sentiment due to expectations of prolonged higher interest rates by the Fed and weaker UK economic outlook. Key support levels to watch are around 1.2600 and 1.2550. A break below these may confirm further downside. Resistance is around 1.2700–1.2750; any retracements toward these levels could present new selling opportunities.
Sentiment: Bearish below 1.2700
Risk Factors: UK economic data, US Fed commentary, geopolitical events.
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Let me know if you want a more technical or fundamental analysis.
The Day AheadFriday, June 20 – Key Economic Data & Central Bank Events
United States
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (June) – Regional manufacturing sentiment indicator.
Leading Economic Index (May) – Composite of 10 leading indicators, used to forecast future economic activity.
China
1-Year & 5-Year Loan Prime Rates – Benchmark lending rates set by the PBoC; key for signaling monetary policy stance.
United Kingdom
GfK Consumer Confidence (June) – Measures households’ economic sentiment.
Retail Sales (May) – Key consumer spending metric.
Public Sector Net Borrowing (May) – Government fiscal position.
Japan
National CPI (May) – Headline and core inflation data, relevant for BoJ policy stance.
Germany
Producer Price Index (PPI, May) – Upstream inflation measure, potential signal for consumer price trends.
France
Business Confidence (June) – Insight into industrial sentiment.
Retail Sales (May) – Consumer activity and domestic demand tracker.
Eurozone
Consumer Confidence (June, flash) – Early indication of household sentiment across the bloc.
M3 Money Supply (May) – Broad monetary aggregate, important for ECB’s inflation monitoring.
Canada
Retail Sales (April) – Key consumer spending indicator.
Industrial Product Price Index (May) – Measures price changes for goods sold by manufacturers.
Central Banks
ECB – Publishes its Economic Bulletin, offering insights into economic conditions and policy outlook.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) – Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks; markets will watch for commentary on yield curve control, inflation expectations, and timing of policy normalization.
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GBPUSD SHORT/SELL 1:3.5Reason for selling:
* Break of structure
* B wave of corrective structure forming
* Expanding flat forming
* MACD divergence
* Liquidity under 1.33860
Strategy to use: FIB retracement on 50/61.8
Engulfing candle to the downside
Entry: 1.35616
Stop Loss: 1.36155
Take Profit: 1.33875
Idea on a ChartGBP/USD found a slight rebound to muscle back above 1.3450 on Thursday.
Despite near-term Greenback strength on geopolitical concerns, markets took a break during the midweek US holiday session.
Israel-Iran tensions continue to rise, and the Trump administration is drawing out a decision on getting involved directly.
GBP/USD found some room on the high side on Thursday, climbing back above the 1.3450 level after catching an early technical bounce from the 1.3400 handle. Broad-market flows have favored the US Dollar recently as Middle East tensions continue to rise, but US markets were dark for a national holiday on Thursday, giving Cable some room to breathe and easing off of USD bidding.
GU-Fri-20/06/25 TDA-DR 1.34921 hit, potential bearish continue!Analysis done directly on the chart
Follow for more, possible live trades update!
I trade from level to level and see how price
reacts to interest zone. I adapt my sl and tp
based on market conditions and as well the
risk per trade but generally 1% max risk or
lower.
Active in London session!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
Market next target
🔻 Bearish Disruption Analysis
1. Overbought Conditions / RSI Exhaustion
The recent bullish momentum appears strong, but it could be entering overbought territory, especially on the 1-hour chart.
A correction may follow if technical indicators like RSI or MACD start diverging.
2. Resistance Zone at 1.35000 - 1.35500
The price is nearing a historical resistance area around 1.3500–1.3550, where sellers have previously stepped in.
Without strong volume or a news catalyst, this zone may reject further upside movement.
3. Low Volume Breakout
The breakout visible before the arrows is accompanied by relatively moderate volume, which can indicate a false breakout or bull trap.
4. Fundamental Uncertainty
Upcoming U.S. or UK economic data (indicated by the flags on the chart) could disrupt the expected bullish move.
Example: A strong USD labor report or hawkish Fed comment could reverse the GBP/USD rally.
GBPUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Off the Fib confluence Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.3502, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fib retracement and the 127.2% Fib extension, providing a significant level for a potential bearish reversal.
Our take profit is set at 1.3427, a pullback support.
The stop loss is set at 1.3587, a pullback resistance.
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Potential bullish rise?The Cable (GBP/USD) has bounced off the pivot which is an overlap support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.3403
1st Support: 1.3319
1st Resistance: 1.3517
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Potential bullish rise for the Cable?The price has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3399
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3337
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3505
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Pound Steady as BoE holds ratesThe British pound is showing limited movement for a second straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3435, up 0.18% on the day.
The Bank of England didn't have any surprises up its sleeve as it held rates at 4.25%. This follows a quarter-point cut at last month's meeting. The MPC vote indicated that six members voted to hold while three voted to lower rates. The markets had projected that the vote would be 7-2 in favor of holding rates.
Today's decision to hold rates was widely expected, but that doesn't mean there aren't economic signals which support a rate cut. The UK economy is in trouble and GDP came in at -0.3% in April, its deepest contraction in 18 months.
The weak economy could desperately use a rate cut, but inflation remains stubbornly high and a rate cut would likely send inflation even higher. Annual CPI remained at 3.4% in May, its highest level in over a year.
The geopolitical tensions, most recently the war between Israel and Iran have led to greater economic uncertainty and complicated any plans to lower rates. The BoE is expected to lower rates one or twice in the second half of the year, with the direction of inflation being a key factor in the Bank's rate path.
The Federal Reserve held rates at Wednesday's meeting for a fourth straight time. The Fed noted that inflation remains higher than the target but said the labor market remains strong. President Trump has pushed hard for the Fed to lower rates but Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stuck to his position and repeated on Wednesday that current policy was the most appropriate to respond to the economic uncertainty.
GBPUSDOn the current GBPUSD chart, price action is exhibiting a bullish market structure with consistent higher highs and higher lows on the 4H and 1H timeframes. Price recently broke above a key internal range high, signaling strength from buyers and a likely continuation of the current trend.
Key Technical Points:
Structure Shift: After clearing previous liquidity above 1.2810, the pair established a new bullish internal structure, indicating strong momentum from institutional participants.
Demand Retests: We observed multiple retests of higher timeframe demand zones, which held cleanly with impulsive bullish reaction, confirming the presence of buy-side interest.
Volume and Momentum: Volume increased significantly on the last bullish leg, suggesting participation aligned with the directional move.
Trendline Support: A dynamic trendline from early June lows has acted as support and continues to guide the trend upward.
Cable bounces from $1.34 for nowCable’s established uptrend seems to have paused for now after a slight decline in British inflation and caution from the Bank of England. The BoE highlighted risks in both directions for inflation in its statement and press conference on 19 June while the Fed seemed more concerned about the possibility of rising inflation after its meeting the day before. There seems to have been some demand for the dollar as a haven in recent days as Israel’s war on Iran continues.
The intersection of $1.34 and the 50 SMA from Bands looks like an obvious static-dynamic support which might resist further testing unless there’s a significant change in narratives. The slow stochastic had been flirting with overbought at the start of the week but has now declined strongly, close to the zone of selling saturation.
Resistance is less of an obvious area. A new high seems possible in the near future but trading in the belief that the uptrend will continue seems to be risky in this situation; the risk of a false breakout looks quite high. A range might develop between approximately $1.34 and $1.363. Flash British PMIs on 23 June probably won’t have a strong impact here but a surprise from American final GDP on 26 June might bring a clearer direction.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.