GBPUSD_SPT trade ideas
Pound Steadies with Trade Deal ReliefThe GBP/USD pair opened Thursday with gains following the Bank of England’s expected 25 basis point rate cut, but the pound’s momentum faded as attention turned to U.S. trade developments. By Friday morning, the pair was trading around 1.3240.
Sentiment shifted toward the U.S. dollar after the Trump administration announced an upcoming trade deal with the UK, helping Britain avoid steep reciprocal tariffs originally set to resume on July 9. While some relief came from Trump’s earlier ‘Liberation Day’ delay, a broad 10% tariff on all UK imports to the U.S. remains on track, potentially weighing on sentiment. Refined ethanol has been fully exempted, though U.S. import data shows none has been sourced from the UK in over 15 years.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3280, resistance levels come in at 1.3450 and 1.3550. Support lies at 1.3160, followed by 1.3000 and 1.2960.
Gbp/usdIn the cahrt above,you have to wait patiently before being into the market, there are lots of repetition,lots of false signal, waiting patiently before entering the market resistance 1 above is the first resistance before heading to the second, there are lots of buy and sell, through my analysis the market is gonna hit the sell before it gets to the buy, cos there is a break of structure in the first resistance point
Whats the market gonna give next THE BUY OR SELL,
TO ME IT'S GONNA HIT THE SELL,
GBPUSD InsightHello and welcome, subscribers!
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Key Points
- A trade agreement has been signed between the United States and the United Kingdom. U.S. President Trump immediately reduced tariffs on 100,000 British-made cars from 25% to 10%, and granted exemptions on tariffs for steel, aluminum, and aircraft parts. The UK agreed to open its market to U.S. machinery, agricultural, and livestock products, committed to purchasing $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft, and decided to lower the average tariff on U.S. goods from 5.1% to 1.8%.
- President Trump commented on the upcoming high-level talks with China this weekend, stating that they "will be substantive and China wants to make a move."
- The Bank of England lowered its base interest rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, but with some members favoring holding the rate steady, the move is widely seen as a "hawkish cut."
Key Economic Events This Week
+ May 9: Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey
GBPUSD Chart Analysis
The pair is continuously attempting to break above the previous high at the 1.34000 level but has failed so far, resulting in a pullback. There are two potential scenarios to watch from here:
1. A slight additional decline followed by a rebound at the 1.31500 level, leading to another attempt to break the previous high.
2. A break below the 1.31500 level, shifting momentum to the downside and continuing a mid- to short-term downtrend toward the 1.28500 level.
We will monitor the 1.31500 level closely during this short-term decline to assess which of the two scenarios plays out.
NNFX GBPUSD Long ContinuationSignal: GBPUSD Long— Continuation
Context:Pullback in range-bound regime.
Probability: Normal
Risk: 1% → Due to continuation
R:R Plan: 1.3R, 50% scale-out at TP - reasonable probability
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Notes:
USD Interest Rates have pushed the dollar to give signal on Judge Fortress Algorithm.
GBPUSD continuation had been set up pending signal for 4 days. Volume for bullish moves are high, and the R:R setup very profitable with potential to secure further into 1.8-2R as days go on.
Set scale out to 50% expecting a potential trend to continue further, as a trend has been evident and volume supports it.
GBPUSD: Bullish Fakeout at Key 50% Fibonacci Level🚀After a brief consolidation near the 50% Fibonacci retracement, price performs a bullish fakeout, signaling its intention to move higher.
The 14:00 candle stands out as a clear sign of strength from buyers.
🔍 Trade Setup
📍 Entry limit:
⛔ Stop Loss:
🎯 Take Profit:
⚖️ Risk/Reward: ≈
💬 What’s your outlook on GBPUSD?
Is this the start of a new leg up?
Share your thoughts in the comments 👇
GBPUSD range bound ahead of BoE Rate Decision GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias, with the broader trend and structure supporting upside continuation. The recent intraday move appears to be an overbought corrective pullback toward a key prior consolidation area.
Key Support: 1.3210 – aligns with the previous consolidation zone and potential bullish inflection point.
Upside Targets:
1.3435 – initial resistance level
1.3500 and 1.3580 – medium to long-term bullish targets
If price finds support at 1.3210 and forms a bullish reversal, it would confirm the continuation of the uptrend toward the mentioned resistance levels.
However, a break and daily close below 1.3210 would invalidate the bullish scenario, suggesting deeper retracement toward 1.3120, with further support at 1.3015 and 1.2980.
Conclusion
GBP/USD remains bullish above 1.3210. Look for a bounce from this level to confirm upside continuation. A daily close below 1.3210 would turn the outlook bearish, exposing lower support levels.
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GBP/USD LONG 8/5/25Price has been unable to break 1.32500. Although there seems to be a head and shoulders pattern on the 4hr timeframe, I believe there may be one last push into 1.35000 before any large retracement. Overall GU is still bullish and had been leaking higher highs and lows. We are yet to break structure to the downside.
The Day Ahead - BoE Rate Decision Thursday May 8
Data: US Q1 nonfarm productivity, Q1 unit labor costs, March wholesale trade sales, April NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, UK April RICS house price balance, Germany March industrial production, trade balance
Central banks: BoE, Riksbank and Norges Bank decision, BoJ minutes of the March meeting, BoE's April DMP survey, BoC financial stability report
Earnings: Toyota Motor, AB InBev, Shopify, ConocoPhillips, Nintendo, DBS, McKesson, Enel, Rheinmetall, Siemens Energy, Coinbase, Cheniere Energy, Infineon, Kenvue, HubSpot, TKO Group, Leonardo, AP Moller - Maersk, Warner Bros Discovery, Toast, Expedia, Pinterest, DraftKings, Affirm, Tapestry, Illumina, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Rocket Lab, Paramount Global, Davide Campari-Milano, Crocs, Lyft, Puma, Peloton, Sweetgreen
Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds
GBP Steady Near $1.33, BoE Rate Cut ExpectedThe British pound hovered near $1.33 as traders awaited the BoE’s decision, with a 25 bps cut to 4.25% widely expected. Markets are also eyeing new economic forecasts for signals of further easing. While Trump’s tariff plans have stoked global slowdown fears, the UK is less exposed due to a U.S. goods surplus. A fresh trade deal with India, expected to generate £4.8 billion annually by 2040, may also cushion the economy.
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.3430, resistance levels come in at 1.3500 and 1.3550. Support lies at 1.3200, followed by 1.3050 and 1.2960.
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 8, 2025 GBPUSDEvents to pay attention today:
15:30 EET. USD - Number of Initial Jobless Claims
14:00 EET. USD - Bank of England Key Interest Rate Decision
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD was down six-tenths of a per cent on Wednesday as markets continued to hold on to the safe-haven US dollar. The Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates unchanged as markets had expected, but Fed policymakers, still adopting a wait-and-see stance, curbed risk appetite during the midweek market session. The Bank of England (BoE) will hold its own rate meeting on Thursday and is expected to cut rates by another quarter point.
Forex Today: All eyes on the Bank of England
Market sentiment declined after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. He said that US trade tariffs could hamper the Fed's inflation and employment targets this year. Powell warned that continued policy instability could force the Fed to take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach to interest rates. While the Trump administration's tariffs have weighed heavily on consumer and business sentiment, the lack of significant negative economic data makes it difficult for the Fed to justify an immediate change in interest rates.
Powell: The right thing to do is to wait for further clarity
The Bank of England is expected to cut the rate by a further quarter point at its upcoming meeting on Thursday, marking the fourth rate cut since it peaked in 2023. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote nine to one in favour of another rate cut in an attempt to support the faltering UK economy.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3330, SL 1.3350, TP 1.3230