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GBP/USD_SPT - GBP/USD

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GBPUSD_SPT trade ideas

GBPUSDThe pair shows resilience against a broadly stronger U.S. dollar, supported by hopes of favorable UK-US trade outcomes and potential Fed rate cuts if U.S. inflation cools. Key Fundamental Drivers Interest Rate Differentials: The Bank of England’s monetary policy versus the Federal Reserve’s stance is a primary driver. A hawkish BoE or dovish Fed tends to strengthen GBP/USD, while the opposite pressures it lower. Economic Data: UK GDP, inflation, employment, and retail sales relative to U.S. data influence directional bias. Softer U.S. inflation data may accelerate Fed rate cuts, weakening the dollar and supporting GBP/USD gains. Political and Geopolitical Factors: Trade negotiations, political stability, and geopolitical tensions affect sentiment and volatility. Positive UK-US trade developments or easing geopolitical risks tend to favor GBP/USD upside. Market Sentiment: Risk appetite influences flows; risk-on environments support the pound, while risk-off favors the safe-haven U.S. dollar Summary of Directional Bias Factors Current Bias Impact on GBP/USD BoE vs Fed Interest Rates Mixed; market waits for clearer signals U.S. Inflation Data Softer data could weaken USD, bullish GBP/USD Trade Negotiations Positive UK-US talks support GBP upside Market Sentiment Moderate risk appetite favors GBP Dollar Index Trend Dollar weakness supports GBP/USD rally Conclusion GBP/USD’s directional bias in April 2025 leans cautiously bullish, supported by strong technical support zones and potential Fed dovishness amid softer U.S. inflation. However, the pair remains sensitive to U.S. dollar strength, BoE-Fed policy divergence, and geopolitical developments. This balanced outlook aligns with recent analysis highlighting GBP/USD’s resilience and the importance of macroeconomic and technical factors in shaping trade bias
Short
by Shavyfxhub
“GBP/USD in Danger! Massive Drop Near Key Resistance!”GBP/USD is fast approaching a massive resistance zone (1.3550 – 1.3650) and showing clear signs of bullish exhaustion. All technical indicators are flashing warning signals for a potential sharp drop! Fundamental Drivers: • UK’s economy is struggling under persistent inflation pressures. • The Fed remains hawkish, supporting USD strength. Targets: • A break below 1.3200 could accelerate the move toward 1.2900, 1.2500, or even lower! Watch for bearish reversal candlestick formations on the Daily and 4H charts to catch the move early!
Short
by Aser_Hosary
2
GBPUSD - Big Move Setting Up - Elliott Wave AnalysisGBPUSD is currently unfolding a 5-wave impulsive move according to Elliott Wave Theory. At the moment, we are in Wave 4, which typically corrects against the larger trend. Key Points: Wave 2 was a simple correction, so based on alternation, Wave 4 is expected to be more complex (likely an ABC structure). Wave 4 often retraces to the 38.2% Fibonacci level — in this case, aligning perfectly with a long-term ascending trendline, providing additional confluence for a potential buy zone. Trade Plan: - Monitor the ABC correction for completion near the 38.2% retracement. - Look for bullish confirmation (trendline break, bullish structure shifts, BOS, etc.). - Entries will be considered after clear signs of bullish pressure. - Stoploss: Below the lows formed during the Wave 4 correction. Targets: First Target: 1.3400 (450 pips) Second Target: 1.3750 (800 pips) Summary: Patience is key during the Wave 4 correction. Once the setup confirms, this could offer a strong risk-reward opportunity within the overall bullish impulsive structure. See our past GBPUSD setups below: Swing 1: Swing 2: Swing 3:
by WicktatorFX
GBPUSD Will Grow! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for GBPUSD. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 1.329. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 1.342 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
GBPUSD Trade RecapFX:GBPUSD Friday trade recap on GBPJPY. 📌 The rationale behind taking this trade was firstly, the positive GBP news for Retail Sales of actual 0.4%, greater than the -0.3% forecast. 📌 Secondly, the price tapped into the strong 4H demand zone, while also sweeping the Asian lows. 📌 The news took place on 6 am UTC, while there were no sudden spikes in price during 6 am, we can see a 30 pips price push few minutes after the news, signaling the market price reacting to the news. 📌 Price got rejected twice from the 15 minutes bearish shooting star, creating a strong short term resistance zone. 📌 Since the bias is short term bullish, I waited for a break and retest of the trendline, as soon as price failed to close below the zone, I immediately place buys. 📌 Price Eventually hit TP at a 1:2.46% risk to reward trade but closed at +1.9% to avoid the subsequent red news. 3min chart
by CandleCipher
GBPUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
by David_Perk
10
GBP/USD | Quarterly Outlook Zooming out on the 3M chart, the structure speaks volumes. After years of downward pressure, the pair found footing at a major low (2021), forming a rounded base. Now we’re seeing a potential macro shift in momentum with confluence from the 0.786 Fibonacci and price edging toward that psychological 1.42 zone. 📍 Previous high? Marked. 📍 Psychological resistance? Noted. 📍 Next checkpoint? 1.4250 retest. Patience is power when you're analyzing legacy structure. Let the candles tell the story. 🔁 #GBPUSD #ForexMacroView #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #QuarterlyChart #SmartMoneyPlay #TrendReversal
Long
by MoNi_MoN
UK retail sales beat forecast, pound edges lowerThe British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3214, down 0.17% on the day. UK retail sales were a ray of sunshine in March. Monthly, retail sales rose 0.4%, beating the market estimate of -0.4% but below the revised 0.7% increase in February. Clothing sales showed strong growth as shoppers took advantage of the sunny weather. Annualized, retail sales rose 2.6% from a revised 1.8% gain in February and above the market estimate of 1.8%. This was the strongest gain in three months. The strong retail sales was a pleasant surprise but the consumer economy remains fragile. The GfK consumer confidence index deteriorated in April to -23 from -19 and below the market estimate of -22. This was the lowest level since November 2023. Consumers are concerned over the rising cost of living and worsening global trade tensions which has been fuelled by President Trump's tariffs. The GfK survey found that consumers are anxious that inflation will continue to rise due to the US tariffs. The Bank of England is following trade tensions carefully as well. On Thursday, Governor Andrew Bailey said that the BoE was "quite focused on the growth shock" for the UK from the tariffs, although he said the UK was not close to a recession. If the global trade war intensifies, it will weigh on UK growth but will also push inflation lower. President Trump's tariff policy is expected to raise inflation and consumers are anxious that inflation will rise sharply. The UoM consumer inflation expectations index jumped to 6.7% in the initial April release, up from 5.0% in March. Today's final release is expected to confirm this figure, which would mark the highest level since Nov. 1981.
by OANDA
GBPUSD(20250425)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Federal Reserve-①Hamack: If economic data is clear, the Fed may cut interest rates in June ②Waller: It will take until July to get a clearer understanding of how tariffs affect the economy. If tariffs lead to higher unemployment, interest rate cuts may be initiated. ③The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts that the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be -2.5%. ④Kashkari: The frequent announcements from Washington have brought challenges to policymakers and everyone. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.3311 Support and resistance levels: 1.3411 1.3374 1.3350 1.3274 1.3248 1.3211 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.3350, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3374 If the price breaks through 1.3311, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3274
Short
by Toml1314
GBPUSD 1H Analysis – ForexCity SignalWe’ve entered a critical zone on GBPUSD. Price formed a Higher High (HH) and later shifted structure with a bearish CHoCH A new Lower High (LH) was printed, confirming bearish intent But recently, bulls stepped in to create a Higher Low (HL) Now price is compressed between LH & HL, meaning: ❗ One side is about to get liquidated. The next move will be impulsive. 🟢 Buy Scenario (If Bulls Win) 🔔 BUY STOP @ 1.33480 TP1: 1.33680 TP2: 1.33980 TP3: 1.34480 SL: 1.33080 (max 40 pips) Reason: Break of LH confirms buyers are back in control. This would be a bullish CHoCH reclaim. 🔴 Sell Scenario (If Bears Continue) 🔔 SELL STOP @ 1.32800 TP1: 1.32600 TP2: 1.32300 TP3: 1.31800 SL: 1.33300 (max 50 pips) Reason: A break below HL confirms bearish continuation after structure shift. This is the safer Smart Money entry. 📌 Conclusion: This is a classic SMC compression zone. Let the market break the range—then ride with conviction. No guessing. Just precision. Wait. Watch. Execute. → Patience = Power.
by forexcitysignal
GBP Rebounds on Retail Sales – But USD Still in Control📌 GBP Bounces on Strong Retail Sales, But USD Strength Keeps Pressure On 💷📉 The British Pound (GBP) rebounded on Friday after UK Retail Sales data surprised to the upside. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), retail sales rose by 0.4% in March, beating expectations of a -0.4% decline. On a yearly basis, growth accelerated to 2.6%, outpacing the forecast of 1.8%. However, despite the positive data, traders remain confident the Bank of England (BoE) may still cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25% in the May meeting, due to persistent global uncertainties and softer inflation expectations. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) gained ground across the board as trade tensions between the US and China appeared to ease. Durable Goods Orders in the US jumped by 9.2% in March — a clear sign of business confidence and policy impact. 📊 Technical Outlook – GBP/USD GBP/USD briefly recovered from an intraday low of 1.3280 but remains under pressure near key resistance. On the upside, the psychological barrier at 1.3500 remains a major hurdle. To the downside, the April 3rd high around 1.3200 now acts as strong support. 💼 Trading Plan 🟢 BUY ZONE: Entry: 1.32500 SL: 1.32000 TP: 1.33300 🔴 SELL ZONE: Entry: 1.34180 SL: 1.34700 TP: 1.33500 📌 Stay alert ahead of key BoE guidance and further US-China headlines — volatility may increase as we head into May.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
GBPUSD... 4H CHART PATTERNI am suggesting a **GBP/USD short (sell) position** from **1.3299**, targeting **1.3160**. Here's a quick breakdown of that idea from a technical and risk management perspective: --- ### 📊 **Trade Summary** - **Pair**: GBP/USD - **Position**: Sell - **Entry**: 1.3299 - **Target**: 1.3160 - **Potential Profit**: 139 pips --- ### ⚠️ Key Considerations: 1. **Technical Analysis**: - Are you basing this on a break of support, resistance rejection, or a larger trend (e.g., D1 or H4)? - Any key indicators (RSI, MACD, moving averages) giving confirmation? 2. **Fundamentals**: - Any upcoming UK or US economic data? (GDP, interest rate announcements, Fed or BoE speeches?) - Market sentiment toward USD (safe haven) or GBP (risk currency)? 3. **Stop Loss**: - Are you using one? Placing it above recent highs could protect you—e.g., SL at 1.3350 (risk of ~50 pips). - Risk-to-reward ratio: approx. 1:2.8 (Good). --- ### 🛠 Example Trade Setup (MetaTrader Style) | Type | Sell (Short) | |------------|-------------------| | Entry | 1.3299 | | TP (Target)| 1.3160 | | SL (Stop) | 1.3350 (example) | | R:R | ~1:2.8 | --- If you’re live trading this, be cautious of: - **Volatility spikes** from news. - **Support levels** near 1.3200 that could slow down the move. - **Dollar strength/weakness** (watch the DXY).
Short
by Money_Magnet5