AmznLooking for a pop back up to 132 ..
Eventually looking for a break below 127 and the next leg down.
Stop loss 126.00
It could break over 132 and 135 gap close but for now 132 is the move
AMZ trade ideas
AMZN Stock Analysis: 4 Reasons to Doubt the Bullish OutlookAfter the Fed signaled last week that rates may be higher for longer than expected, the US stock market has received a strong bearish boost. And among the most vulnerable assets were technology stocks (considered risky). The NASDAQ index has already fallen by about 6% since last Wednesday (when the FOMC meeting took place). And the negative backdrop from the Fed is one of the 4 issues that give reason to doubt the bullish outlook for AMZN stock.
The second reason is that AMZN has fallen 9% in value since last Wednesday. That is, AMZN is falling faster than the overall market. And this problem is not new. Compare the dynamics of the index and Amazon shares on a weekly timeframe and you will see that the shares have been performing weaker than the index since the summer of 2020. That is, the leadership status that was held for many years has been lost.
The third reason is that yesterday, it became known that the Federal Trade Commission and 17 states sued Amazon, claiming that its online commerce policies illegally stifle competition. The litigation could put further pressure on the stock price.
The fourth reason is volume analysis. The last two spikes in large volumes of trading in AMZN shares on the NASDAQ exchange were recorded on August 4 and September 15. After the first surge, the price stopped growing as part of a bullish trend that has lasted since the beginning of 2023. After the second, it began to decline. Perhaps large players took profits from the rally and reversed positions in anticipation of lower prices?
It is also worth noting that the 2023 rally did not reach the level of 50% of the A→B decline, so the level of USD 126 per share of AMZN (providing support in July) may be broken against the backdrop of these problems, opening the way to the psychological mark of 100 USD per share.
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$AMZN Can it Break Thru This Area of Resistance?NASDAQ:AMZN I am looking / waiting for Amazon to break above this area of resistance before I get involved. If we get an improving market ( I don't know if we will) then I expect Amazon can head back to recent highs.
I have an alert set on that line and if / when it breaks thru I'll start looking at a lower timeframe to determine a good entry and stop area.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
AMZN: Sell ideaSell idea on AMZN as you see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the vwap by a big red candle with a large red volume.Thanks!
AMZN, Two-Fold Formations, MASSIVE BREAKOUT on Earnings!Hello There!
Welcome to my new Stock Market Price Analysis about the AMAZON/ AMZN Stock Price. In my analysis I am analyizing the stock price of AMAZON/ AMZN on a 2-day timeframe perspective. The markets are showing initial recoveries from the massive shocks that hit the economy in the last year with inflation rising to new heights. As the inflation calms down and recession dangers seem to decrease a big questionmark confronts investors on where they should allocate their funds to profit from a possible upswing within the market. Although, this holds true for institutional and retail investors, a bigger chunk of larger price-swings is done by smart money institutional flows. Therefore an appropriate objection is also done when considering where smart money is allocating there funds. In this current situation it has to be explicitly said that not every stock in this market has the ability to rally and to recover from a recession scenario. Therefore, it is utmostly important that sophisticated investors pick the stocks that have a real potential in the market and that should also keep providing strong returns if inflation, recession, stagnation, and a extensive demand gap should rise again.
In the past earnings report the AMAZON/ AMZN stock has surprised the markets with a huge increase in earnings by 83.66%. This could be a sign that AMAZON/ AMZN has the potential to complete 2023 with a positive earnings close compared to the really bad year of 2022 where earnings actually closed negatively of -153.34% which also showed up in the real price-action of the actual price of the stock. Reversely, this means that when the company holds on to positive earnings and increase them to close 2023 this will provide a strong fundamental boost that has the potential to convert into actual price-action that can be inclined with the technicals for the stock price-action. Especially, considering how well the stock has done within the corona crisis with retail business moving to new heights compared to other businesses that just hit rock bottom and mass-bancruptcies unfolding all over the place this shows how these dynamics can give the stock a positive fundamental base in the present dynamic from where growth is possible if not other dynamics with considerations of inflation, recession, stagnation, and a extensive demand gap should change in the next times.
Considering the technical perspective which is also playing a massive role for the stock there are several really interesting developments here. Firstly, recently with the earnings surprise the stock jumped massively and printed a great green candle pumping over 10%. Furthermore, the stock is forming two main formations here which is firstly the massive broadening-wedge formation that has been almost completed for now and the inverse head-and-shoulder formation in which the stock price-action is now forming the right shoulder of the whole formation moving simultaneously with the broadening-wedge confirmation. The fact that this bounce within the main support cluser marked in orange in my chart supported by the 100-EMA in blue, the 600-EMA in red, the ascending trend-line of the huge channel and the upper-boundary of the broadening-wedge increase the likelihood of a appropriate bounce in this area by almost 100%. With this first confirmation, from the technical perspective this will open the doors for the stock to rally massively and finalize also the second confirmation which will happen with the stock breaking out above the blue neckline of the inverse head-shoulder formation.
Thank you everybody for watching. Support for my idea is appreciated and then let´s move on forward together.
VP
How I Analyze Market Structure - Breakout vs. Rejection Hello all,
First post.
I wanted to share a valuable insight I use in my trading strategy to evaluate market structure.
The only strategy I trade is 1.) a break and hold with volume above/below a key level 2.) bounce at key level 3.) reject at key level
Understanding Market Structure:
Obviously when we see higher highs accompanied by higher lows, it's a clear sign of an uptrend and vice versa.
If the price approaches a key level (in this case AMZN $132) after bouncing from a higher low, I would anticipate a break to hold that level and climb higher. However, that's not what happened here.
On the other hand, if the price approaches a key level after forming a recent lower low from the prior pivot, I like to be prepared for a potential rejection. This could indicate a shift in sentiment and see some reversal follow through.
Today's price action in NASDAQ:AMZN is a great example of this type of PA. It can be confusing to some traders to differentiate a bounce/rejection from a breakout/breakdown after a level has seen reaction multiple times.
If you're unsure on the trend, zoom out. Even if price is trending on, say the 1H, you may see something completely different on the daily.
Hopefully this makes sense and can help at least a couple of people.
Monitoring the bearish sentiment i'm currently monitoring both the 1hr & 30 min chart. Both charts have the AD/Money Flow showing a double top... also on the 1000R I have the .618 fib near 147.20, previous support could act as future resistances. Im waiting for Fridays action to determine if 147.20 is a short or not. I'm going to share a few charts that i've created. This is not trading or financial advice. Just sharing my Technical Analysis and how I few charts
AMAZON: Testing the 1D MA100. Will it hold?AMAZON is on the third straight day where it respects the 1D MA100. Holding this level translates into a rebound base as the long term pattern is a Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook hasn't been lower thought (RSI = 40.739, MACD = -0.760, ADX = 35.289) since December 28th 2022, so the slightest cross below, should extend the downfall under the Channel Up and towards the 1D MA200.
The Huge Buy Zone is inside the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci range. Those will be the two buy entries and our target on the medium term is the R1 level (TP = 145.90).
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Amazon.com: 3-Day Rule in Effect?The "3-day rule" is a basic principle that suggests traders should wait for the third day after a drop to consider entering a stock. That concept may now apply to e-commerce giant Amazon.com.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the gap lower on Thursday, one session after the Federal Reserve hammered sentiment with its "higher for longer" message. Notice how AMZN has managed to hold its ground since, despite the broader market edging lower.
Second, the stock is trying to stabilize near the bottom of the Keltner Channel and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA).
Next, stochastics have dipped to an oversold condition.
Finally, consider the price action around $128. AMZN peaked there in early June. It broke out (on above-average volume) in the second half of the month and bounced there in July and early August. Friday’s low was $0.52 above that level, which could mean support is holding.
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AMZN; BREAKOUT Of Massive MEGAPHONE-PATTERN, Indication Forward!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about the AMAZON STOCK on the 2-day timeframe perspective. The stock market in the recent times is sending highly mixed signals with bullish as well as bearish stocks in the market and stocks which did not decided upon a direction yet. What is important in such trading phases is to pick the stocks that have clear potentials and where considerations about a trade can lead to a profitable outcome with a high possibility, at the end trading is all about possibilities rather than moving blindly into the market. In this case I have detected major preliminary signs within the AMAZON STOCK which deliver the base for a considerable outcome with an wave-expansion upcoming.
When considering my chart we can watch there how the AMAZON STOCK recently formed a highly decisive breakout, this breakout has been a breakout out of this huge bull-flag magephone-pattern and such a pattern is a pattern that is building the foundation for a strong continuation to show up with a high possiblity. Furthermore, the price-action is now trading above several support-level which consist of the 100-MA in black, the 50-MA in orange, the upper-boundary of the pattern, and the horizontal support-level above the 105 zone. All these supports holding the price-action to the upside giving the price-action a major tailwind for further expansions to show up in the next terms.
With the global picture adding to the local one the price-action is also forming this massive sin-wave in which the tops exactly match the bottom with touching the sin-wave forming the main waves A and B that are already finished. Now the stock is forming the third wave C with the coherent target-zones in the top of the sin-wave to be touched once the price-action reaches out to the level. Also the top of the sin-wave target-zone is matching with the megaphone-pattern target-zone and the local wave-expansion. If fresh liquidity moves into the market it provides also a fundamental base as the stock has not yet left the list of the large-cap stocks within the market. Overall the signs are pointing to the target-zones to be reached, what happens after this needs to be considered also when adding the overall macroeconomic conditions to the evaluation.
Thank you everybody for watching. It will be great when you support my idea and we move on forward together.
“The only way to discover the limits of the possible is to go beyond them into the impossible.”
VP
Amazon - Long PositionEntry Point: Our analysis suggests that a compelling entry point for Amazon's stock would be when its value tests the established trend line. This approach aligns with the concept of buying when the price is in close proximity to a confirmed trend line, indicating potential support and a possible reversal or continuation of the prevailing trend.
Stop Loss (SL): To manage risk effectively, we recommend setting a Stop Loss (SL) level at 2 percent below the entry point. This provides a safety net to limit potential losses in case the market moves against our trade. By capping the downside risk, this strategy aims to safeguard your investment.
Take Profit (TP): To maintain a balanced risk-reward ratio, our analysis suggests setting a Take Profit (TP) level at 2 percent above the entry point. This represents the potential reward you could capture if the trade unfolds in your favor. By targeting this percentage, you ensure that your potential gains outweigh the potential losses, promoting a favorable risk-reward profile.
The Amazon Enigma: A Market in Transition While the prevailing sentiment among financial analysts leans toward Amazon's stock being a solid buy, I harbor a degree of skepticism, primarily driven by a divergence between technical analysis and the consensus among analysts, especially in the medium term.
Central banks across the globe have taken unprecedented measures to combat rising inflation, primarily through increasing interest rates. However, the intriguing aspect lies in the stock market's reaction, which has seemingly defied the traditional negative correlation with rising interest rates, continuing to surge despite the elevated rates. My conviction, however, is that this bull trap may not persist indefinitely, and a market correction may be on the horizon.
Examining Amazon from a technical perspective reveals compelling insights. It seems like the stock may have wrapped up a significant cycle, completing five upward waves. Notably, during this stock market rally, Amazon failed to retest its prior highs. Furthermore, when we consider the historical yellow trendline I've drawn, there is evident evidence of a breach followed by a retest. This retest, notably occurring at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level, holds particular significance as it is widely acknowledged as a pivotal point to monitor.
While the impact of elevated interest rates has not been immediately pronounced, historical data underscores the prevailing negative correlation between interest rates and stock market performance. Short-term bullish episodes often serve as precursors to significant market shifts. It is crucial for traders to remain vigilant in light of the prolonged overvaluation of the markets. The prevailing tech and AI bubble, I contend, may be nearing its culmination. Prudent preparation is advised.
There's a growing sense in the financial landscape that we could be on the cusp of witnessing a significant rotation of capital. As riskier, potentially overvalued stocks tread uncertain waters, investors may increasingly turn their attention to assets that are both underrated and safe. This shift seeks out equities with solid valuations, robust performance records, and the promise of stability. In times of market flux, such a rotation often reflects a prudent strategy, a recalibration of portfolios toward assets that offer both resilience and growth potential.
In essence, my perspective leans toward a more cautious outlook, predicated on both technical analysis and the historical interplay between interest rates and market dynamics.
XRP Comparison to Amazon's price history!
It's been a long time since I posted a chart.
I remember all to well holding AMZN as an asset during this time period... I remember, vividly, thinking how BIG it was gonna be, but almost in disbelief that price was doing nothing, and to be honest, it was a GRIND just to hang on! Holding XRP as an asset, in so many ways, has the exact same feeling!!!
While there will always be differences when comparing two assets side by side, it's the subtle similarities that I find important! For XRP, it's all about conquering this current cloud cover that it has 'nested' itself under. In addition, I think in the short term, the price that may provide some resistance is $1.03.
Cheers!
AMZN Bear trap??Took just a day to trade below 130 support after falling outside bullish channel. Unfortunately I took my profits the day prior. Although HMA is bearish, we are in heavy oversold territory and looks like it could be a bear trap. Selling a 135C and 125P strangle could be a good idea as I foresee AMZN trading in this range short term.
AMZN, Decisive H-S-FORMATION, Setup For BROADER PULLBACKS!Hello,
Welcome to this analysis about AMZN and the 4-day timeframe perspectives. Since major stocks in the stock market such as PYPL or FB recently showed up with heavily increased volatility bearish pullbacks to the downside the advance-decline line of the whole averaged stock market is declining which means that a pullback in the other bigger market cap stocks such as AMZN is increasing the more other stocks follow these developments, this can also lead to increased volatility to the downside in which the whole market turns to the downside. Therefore it is necessary to do not keep this scenario from the desk and consider the technicals to rightly prepare and also possibly catch opportunities in this market environment. Therefore when looking at my chart, we can watch there how AMZN is now building this main head-shoulder-formation with the left shoulder and the head already completed. Now with forming the right shoulder, AMZN has a huge resistance within the main Upper-Resistance-Cluster which is marked in red in my chart, in this case, there is a high possibility given that from there on AMZN pulls back to the downside which will show the origin of final completion of the head-shoulder-formation. Once AMZN has completed the head-shoulder-formation bearishly below the neckline as seen in my chart this will activate lower target-zones shown in my chart at the 1980 level marked in black, once these levels have been reached it will be determining on if AMZN holds these levels or just sets up for a continuation. If AMZN breaks below these targets and into the Bearish-Continuation-Zone marked in red this will lead to a Wave-C-Extension down the line, in any case, it is necessary to keep the bearish perspectives in mind and be prepared on these dynamics.
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best!
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Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
AMZN closes outside channelAmazon has been trading in the same bullish channel since March of this year. Today it closed just outside of it, however 135 is a good level of support as it goes back to March of 2022. If it fails next level is 130. HMA and stochastic is bearish, but is entering oversold territory. Tomorrows candle will be a good indication of short term trend.
Last Friday I opened a short postilion (145 puts). Closed on Tuesday for 40% and 60% profits.
Back in channel, bullish.
Trades outside channel, bearish.
Should You Buy AMZN Now??Technical Analysis:
- AMZN is still doing a WXY medium term correction in blue
- In the short term AMZN is finishing wave ((3)) in black of ((5)) waves to complete wave (X) in blue
- We expect that the correction will be finished at around
70 when wave ((II)) in black is also completed
- H1 and H4 right side is up
Technical Information:
- Don't buy AMZN now
- If you're either a swing or position trader, you can buy when the correction WXY is completed around 70
Watching AMZN break of 139.64 for continuationThe headline chart is a 15 min chart, but it's easier to see what's really happening on the 5 min chart where it broke a wedge downwards and remains to reject entry back into the trend:
I'll be watching for breakdown entry under 139.64 only if it retests it and confirms resistance. I would be looking for 138ish.
Already played NASDAQ:AMD for +20% today. Continued to +50% on strength.
Welcome to follow for more insights.
Of course, this move is cancelled if it breaks 139.98 and becomes support. Thanks for reading.
Head and Shoulders AMZN LONG $$$AMZN has recently demonstrated an uptrend until a sudden momentum change on 9/19. The current resistance level (neckline) is set at $145.05. With the beginning downtrend, the stock sets up a short position from the neckline to roughly $102. Following a reversal from support of the previous shoulder, a long position forms and AMZN exits the pattern.
MacD and SQZMOM are indicative of a trend reversal while RSI is indicative of an overbought condition.
In the broader market context, many major stocks have recently experienced significant corrections, followed by impressive rebounds, eventually reaching new 52-week highs. This pattern may serve as a template for what could happen with AMZN after this inverted head and shoulders formation.
Possible Long positions and Short positions look like this:
Remember to put your stop losses after the last low!
AMZN: there's strong support here, but I'll wait for TL touchThis would likely be a daytrade or 1-2 day swing when this transpires anyway.
If I miss out on the reversal, it's better than entering too early.
One strategy is to enter slow, but that can be detrimental if you don't know what that means and if you don't have discipline.
Also there's a h/s on the 4hr candle-chart. So I'll wait.
Look at my AMZN short from yesterday. Paid well and hit targets. Puts are at least +100%.
Strong TrendWe're approaching a strong trendline here on both the main chart and the RSI. I think we get a bounce here, but keep your eye close to the trend incase it breaks.
Not financial advice, good luck to all :)
