MSFT Long: Multi-Timeframe Analysis and Elliot Wave InsightMicrosoft is presenting a strong long opportunity, with a setup confirmed across multiple timeframes: the 2-day, 4-hour, and weekly charts.
Trend Positioning: MSFT is trending upward, with current price action situated near the lower boundary of its ascending channel (highlighted by green trendlines). This area also aligns with key moving averages (7, 20, 50, and 100-day MAs), adding strong confluence at this support zone.
Elliott Wave Perspective: The weekly chart suggests that Microsoft is in a corrective Wave 4 within a larger upward trend. This Wave 4 correction has respected common Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2% and 50%) and appears set to complete, potentially paving the way for a Wave 5 move toward new highs.
Hard Invalidation: If price falls below ~366 (lower orange horizonal line on 2-day), the Elliott Wave structure would be invalidated, signaling a break in the uptrend.
Intermediate Support: A drop below 385-389 range would reduce confidence in this path, although it wouldn’t fully invalidate it.
Trade Targets:
Primary Price Target: ~468, representing approximately an 11% gain (Risk-Reward Ratio: 3.5 based on current price).
Secondary Price Target: >520, representing a ~25% gain (Risk-Reward Ratio: ~7.0). This target aligns with the upper boundary of the rising channel.
Estimated Timeline:
Given that the primary analysis is based on the 2-day chart, this move is expected to unfold over the next 3-4 months.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Suggested stop loss is within the 399.95 - 405.33 range, beneath key support on 4 hour. For those with large risk appetite, can set it for the identified bearish turn point int he 385-389 range.
