#MSFT Straddle/trade plan Less expensive than previous but still is considerable. Exp date is 15-Sep-23.
We placed both for clarity.
Based on our team's research of the options market, we expect buy activity at the support level or sell activity at the resistance.
We primarily consider levels to be activity zones, but not to be a super-fine level for establishing a limit order. Use them in combination with our own strategy, not in alone.
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MSF trade ideas
MSFT approaching supportMicrosoft Corp. (MSFT) approaching channel support, able to absorb weekly selling pressures. From here, (MSFT) can regain upward momentum and trade back to recent resistance, eliciting gains of 15-20% over the following 1-2 months. A settlement above this resistance would lead to a longer-term buy signal into 2024. Inversely, if a settlement below channel support occurs, (MSFT) becomes susceptible to losses of 20% over the following 3-5 months.
The goal of reducing 180$According to the Butterfly pattern, the Fibo perfectly converges the decline to the target of $ 180. We also go down the channel where the lower border of the channel will be. All 3 parameters should be added together. We should reach it by June 2024, there will be a great point for going to long.
MSFT setting up for a "mini" correction MSFT appears to be setting up for a bull run even though it is already exceptionally expensive PE. Regardless of fundamentals such as its massive investment in AI/chatCPT and formidable challenges against Google with its Bing platform, etc
Similar to AMD, MSFT is experiencing negative MACD signals which suggest a relative good buying opportunity is coming ahead, from July 15 at the earliest.
Should MSFT go below 288 / fib 0.786 to rest the last high however will turn out to be interesting. Risk vs rewards.
MSFT earnings watchMSFT earnings are today 7/25/23 at 4:05pm. Microsoft (MSFT) reported earnings of 2.45 per share on revenue of 52.86 billion for the fiscal Q3 ending March 2023. The consensus earnings estimate was 2.22 per share on revenue of 51.03 billion. The company beat expectations by 8.41% while revenue grew 7.08% on a year-over-year basis. The company said during its conference call it expects Q4 revenue of 54.85 billion to 55.85 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is 54.9 billion for the quarter ending June 30, 2023.
MSFT Q4 June 2023 Consensus:
EPS = 2.54
Revenue = 55.44 B
PE = 37
MSFT VWMA levels:
VWMA20 = 343
VWMA50 = 334
VWMA100 = 307
VWMA200 = 273
MSFT earnings recap since 2022:
1/25/22 - open 293, high 300, low 269, close 292 = (-1)
4/26/22 - open 280, high 289, low 259, close 282 = +2
7/26/22 - open 259, high 269, low 243, close 262 = +3
10/25/22 - open 247, high 253, low 230, close 234 = (-13)
1/24/23 - open 243, high 255, low 239, close 240 = (-3)
4/25/23 - open 281, high 302, low 275, close 299 = +18
MSFT options data:
7/28 expiry
Put Volume Total 61,778
Call Volume Total 93,180
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.66
Put Open Interest Total 96,832
Call Open Interest Total 136,498
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.71
8/18 expiry
Put Volume Total 16,507
Call Volume Total 44,217
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.37
Put Open Interest Total 201,437
Call Open Interest Total 264,585
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.76
9/15 expiry
Put Volume Total 14,264
Call Volume Total 14,997
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.95
Put Open Interest Total 208,533
Call Open Interest Total 279,806
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 0.75
MSFT NO CHANGE IN TARGET381/383The chart posted is MSFT and I had stated that the peak would be 361 area we saw a 366 print this is 1.147 x the drop from 2021 peak to the low nov 2022 212 area . I see this has an abc flat to end a wave 4 from which we should rally to 381/383 in wave 5 of wave B 1.236 =target 381 1.27 is 383.9 so now you have the targets for the last part of the puzzle . I am long calls from 327.9 and 329
Microsoft Challenges Fib 3.618 levelMicrosoft - NASDAQ:MSFT
Expectations were beat across the board today but what does the long term monthly chart tell us? All is revealed in the chart. This is a key moment for NASDAQ:MSFT and a pull back or break through to established new highs wouldn't surprise. I'm happy to wait for the confirmations outlined in the chart. That MACD cross though looks appealing.
Earnings Summary
- Profits jumped 20% to 20.1 b
- EPS: $2.69 / Exp $2.56
- Revenue: $56.19B / Exp $55.49B
- Azure (cloud) revenue up 26% / Exp 27%
Msft gap closeBounced off lower channel late last week after earnings sell off.
Minor time frame you can see the Inverted H&S that form friday, breakout over 342.50 with a 350 target .
You really don't want to see a break down back below 337 but if you bought some time I'd be comfortable with a 335 stop loss or 50sma.
So ...
Long over 338
1st target will be tough to break at 342 because of the prior price action and 20-21 MA/EMA. But once it gets over that
2nd target - 350
MSFT WAVE 5 of 5 has started target 381/383The chart posted is that of MSFT we have now formed a nice ABC decline after hitting the top of the weekly BB bands . we now very over sold and I have moved back into CALLS in msft today at the open . LOOK for msft to rally to 381/383 this should now most likely bring the sp to 4631/4658 and the QQQ to 388/393 I tend to lead toward 391.3
Consensus Trading Model, What to do with MSFTYou can use different trading models and strategies and give them a score, and then use the summation score as a trading model.
Let's do this for NASDAQ:MSFT and compare 10 different models and give a score of +1 score for bullish, 0 for neutral, and -1 for bearish.
Elliott wave: -1
Wyckoff:0
Mean version:0
Regression Channel:-1
Random Walk Index:-1
Price Action to Support and resistance line:-1
Weekly chart:-1
Alligator Method:0
Super trend:1
Money Flow Index:-1
Piotroski F Score:0
Total score: -5
Conclusion: Microsoft is more likely to experience more decline!