Nvidia Investing opportunity (short-term) 1I expect Nvidia share to hit $175+- in a year
I think people over-estimate the effect of China being cut off, its likely going to be less than a 10% revenue drop, and it seems with the Stargate project that the gap can maybe be filled.
There's other things to consider, if the USA was struggling with "job shortages" currently and the Trump Administration's goal is to increase internal production/reliance for goods and services and also potentially other new partners (like Russia/Ukraine) then won't the demand for AI actually just become even greater if China starts getting cut off more?
You have to also consider the strong stance against illegal immigrants here, so cheaper labor goes away, so what drones on farms, AI????
I think the target is China, I think the aggressive stance against EU and Canada might be limited in magnitude, the real target is China, this is all some grand plan to try and remove them from the stage or weaken their position.
let's say the deal flies with the mineral rights in Ukraine and/or Russia, it will reduce reliance on China.
I think Russia is desperate for a deal that can boost its economy, I think its very serious about partnering up with the USA, at least in a more indirect way.
I think both the USA and Russia knows, the age of oil has passed its peak. If you look at it long-term wise, a direct conflict of interest regarding oil supply etc. can at this point perhaps decline, maybe?
You need to consider the Northern Sea Trade route as well, won't that theoretically make trade between the USA and Russia easier and more "relevant" as the ice melts.
I think big changes are on the way, what really scares the market is uncertainty and short-term negative consequences of any big change.
I think AI is going to become more relevant, and the stage is being setup for increased demand in AI, I think the market does over-react, and it might continue to go down, but how much?
Nvidia share value has shred 33.33% now, a third, how much more, 50%, but then at 50% you think perhaps its now gone too far, but even then the upside looks way bigger.
I think a phased approach could be better, I think that phased approach starts now, Nvidia at $100 a share, and maybe then more later on if it drops further to $75 etc.
BUT this is all just an opinion, I am no professional, perhaps a serious hobbyist investor/long-term trading, my real money I have made from longer-term trading positions to short-term investing (1+ year hold shares, and bonds), the reason I am in net negative still (last 2 years it was net positive) is because of shorter-term trading, end of story, so I will never do short-term trading again.
that linear regression I took from when OpenAI released around 2022 July, according to the linear regression channel its likely to perhaps revert to the mean (go back up).
I know that the Microsoft Bubble happened somewhat similarly in the far past, there was the initial boom of 3-4 years then it struggled for months to a year, like Nvidia is doing now, and it went down somewhat, but then the boom continued and continued, if we get something like that with Nvidia, even 50% of that, I wouldn't worry about Nvidia shares hitting $175.
I think it can go lower than $75 potentially, and I will buy again when it gets there but I feel like I can hold this share regardless, maybe we don't see $175 in the next year, but $125 maybe, even that is good enough.
I am risking $5000+- dollars in a Long Position, I am holding indefinitely, I bought at $106
I will have the same amount of money ready if it drops let's say in a few months or so to $75+- then I buy again, but I start buying now.
I might be a bit too early, the SP500 is down 10%+- from 6150, I don't think you should all in now, but you can "start" to consider buying now.
