TSLA Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26📌 Key Observations from the Charts
1. Market Structure & Price Action:
* TSLA had a major breakdown from 348-350, falling to 337.20 and consolidating.
* Support Levels:
* 337.20 (current price zone, high liquidity).
* 330.00 (negative NETGEX & next major put wall support).
* 320.09 (third put wall, high-risk breakdown level).
* Resistance Levels:
* 348.01 (prior breakdown level, first resistance).
* 356.76 (Value Area High & rejection level).
* If TSLA loses 330, expect sharp downside acceleration toward 320.
2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels:
* Point of Control (POC): 337.35 → High liquidity, potential reaction zone.
* Value Area High (VAH): 348.01 → Key resistance.
* Value Area Low (VAL): 334.42 → Must hold to avoid more downside.
3. Indicators Review:
* MACD: Bearish, with downside momentum still increasing.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold but not rebounding yet—no bullish reversal confirmation.
🛠️ Options GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* 380-400 → High gamma resistance, strong call walls preventing upside.
* 450 → Extreme call wall unlikely to be tested unless strong bullish momentum returns.
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 330 → Highest Put Wall & Negative NETGEX Support.
* 320 → Critical third Put Wall—if lost, it could trigger a larger breakdown.
* Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx):
* IVR 37.1 | IVx Avg 70 → Higher volatility than previous stocks, meaning wider swings expected.
* Call Positioning 50.5% → Some bullish bets, but still overshadowed by put-heavy positioning.
📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup)
🔹 Entry: Short below 334 confirmation.
🔹 Target 1: 330.00 (Put Wall Support).
🔹 Target 2: 320.00 (Put Wall Break).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 342 (invalidates breakdown).
🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy PUTS 335/320 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms.
* Debit Put Spread (Bearish 335P/320P for risk control).
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 342-348, targeting 356+.
🔹 Target 1: 348.01 (first resistance).
🔹 Target 2: 356.76 (major resistance zone).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 335 invalidates upside move.
🔹 Options Strategy:
* Sell 320/315 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play.
🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions
* Main Bias: Bearish, unless 342+ is reclaimed.
* Gamma Risks: Below 330, strong gamma exposure can push TSLA lower quickly.
* Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
