Lingrid | GOLD Weekly MARKET Update: Price Coiled for Major Move OANDA:XAUUSD has formed an inside bar pattern on the monthly timeframe, creating a high-probability setup for the next major directional move. May's candle sits completely within April's range, with this compression typically preceding explosive moves in either direction. The 4H chart shows a complex corrective structure following multiple failed breakout attempts from the April high around. The recent bounce from support, which is May's low, suggests potential accumulation, though the overall structure remains corrective with descending highs.
Current price sits near the middle of the critical range. A break above May's high at 3,400 could trigger rapid acceleration toward 3,500-3,600, while breakdown below 3,120 would likely target major support around 3,000-3,050. Multiple fake breaks on shorter timeframes suggest accumulated stops on both sides, potentially fueling rapid acceleration once genuine breakout occurs. The A-B-C corrective pattern visible suggests the recent decline may be nearing completion.
The monthly inside bar pattern's resolution will likely determine gold's trajectory through the summer months. A bullish breakout could reignite the broader uptrend toward new highs, while a bearish resolution might trigger a deeper correction that tests major support levels. Either outcome would likely provide substantial trading opportunities for those positioned correctly when the pattern resolves.
The broader fundamental backdrop continues to support gold's long-term bullish case, though short-term technical factors may drive the immediate direction. Central bank policies, geopolitical tensions, and currency debasement concerns provide underlying support, while technical positioning suggests the market is primed for significant movement.
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