XAUUSD 1hrWhat if same pattern from previous wave would you short now?What if the same pattern from the previous wave appears again? Would you consider shorting it now?
GOLD trade ideas
XAU/USD H8 AnalysisThe price of Gold against the US Dollar is bullish on the bigger time frame.
Diving into the 8 hour chart, we see that price was correcting in the form of a triangle with a breakout in the early part of this month.
With price retesting the top of the triangle, we may see a rejection and further move to the upside. Watch out for a false break though.
This is an idea of what may happen.
Always trade with a tested and profitable strategy. Use alongside good risk management.
Gold Is Likely to Break Below 3300 SoonYesterday, gold rallied up to near 3400 before pulling back, just as we had anticipated. We've repeatedly emphasized that 3400 is a strong resistance level, and those who followed through with short positions likely saw impressive profits.
Today, after a sharp drop, gold has rebounded again and is fluctuating near resistance. Support lies at 3352, and if that breaks, the next downside target is around 3333, followed by a possible move to fill the gap between 3300–3289.
🔍 Trading Logic:
There's still significant selling pressure above 3300, with the gap remaining unfilled.
Once the gap is filled, bulls may regain confidence to push higher — though they still face dense resistance above.
📌 Clear Profit Opportunities:
✅ Short toward the 3289 gap fill
✅ After the gap is filled, consider buying into the bullish rebound
The setup is clear — the key now is timing your entries and managing your positions wisely.
Gold Liquidity run Short Setup Update This video is an update on the Gold setup that was posted on the 4/06/25
I cover the price action and discuss what I think will be occurring from this point onwards as
part of the original trading plan .
GOLD XAUUSDXAU/USD (Gold) and Its Relationship with 10-Year Bond Yield, Bond Price, DXY, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP), and Carry Trade
1. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yield / Bond Price
Inverse Relationship with Real Yields:
Gold typically moves inversely to real 10-year Treasury yields (nominal yield minus inflation). When real yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold increases, putting downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, falling or negative real yields support gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge and safe haven.
Bond Prices Move Oppositely to Yields:
Since bond prices and yields are inversely related, rising bond prices (falling yields) tend to support gold prices, while falling bond prices (rising yields) can weigh on gold.
Current Context:
In mid-2025, 10-year yields have been relatively elevated but real yields remain low or negative due to inflation, supporting gold prices
2. Gold and DXY (US Dollar Index)
Strong Negative Correlation:
Gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY) usually move in opposite directions. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and lowering prices. A weaker dollar boosts gold by making it cheaper internationally.
Recent Trends:
Trade tensions, US fiscal concerns, and geopolitical risks have pressured the dollar, helping gold rally . The dollar weakness amid tariff escalations and debt worries has fueled gold’s uptrend toward resistance levels
3. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) and Gold
UIP Concept:
UIP suggests that currency exchange rate changes should offset interest rate differentials between countries, eliminating arbitrage opportunities. While UIP primarily applies to currencies, it indirectly affects gold since gold is priced in USD and influenced by US interest rates and inflation expectations.
Implication for Gold:
If US interest rates rise relative to other countries, the dollar tends to strengthen (UIP effect), pressuring gold. Conversely, if real rates fall or inflation expectations rise, gold benefits despite nominal rate changes.
4. Carry Trade and Gold
Carry Trade Basics:
Carry trades involve borrowing in low-yield currencies to invest in higher-yield assets. Gold itself does not yield interest, so it is not a direct carry trade instrument. However, the gold carry trade involves borrowing gold at low lease rates and investing proceeds in higher-yielding assets.
Current Viability:
Rising gold prices increase the cost of repurchasing borrowed gold, reducing carry trade profitability. Yet, negative or low real yields and persistent inflation fears maintain some interest in gold-related carry strategies.
Indirect Influence:
Carry trade flows in currencies and bonds affect the dollar and yields, which in turn influence gold prices.
Summary Table
Factor Relationship with Gold (XAU/USD) Explanation
10-Year Bond Yield
Inverse (via real yields) Higher real yields raise gold’s opportunity cost
Bond Price
Positive (inverse to yields) Rising bond prices lower yields, supporting gold
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Negative Strong dollar makes gold more expensive globally
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
Indirect, via currency and rate expectations Rate differentials influence USD strength, impacting gold
Carry Trade
Indirect Currency and yield carry trades affect dollar and rates, influencing gold
Current Market Context (June 2025)
Gold is trading near $3,388 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar amid trade tensions and US fiscal concerns.
Real US yields remain low/negative, maintaining gold’s safe-haven appeal despite elevated nominal yields.
Geopolitical risks and inflation fears continue to drive demand for gold as a hedge.
Conclusion
Gold’s price dynamics in 2025 are shaped by the interplay of real US interest rates, bond market movements, and the strength of the US dollar. While nominal 10-year yields have risen, low real yields and dollar weakness amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties support gold’s bullish trend. The carry trade and UIP frameworks influence the broader currency and interest rate environment, indirectly affecting gold’s appeal.
#GOLD
The Uncertainty of Gold Gold exhibited considerable uncertainty, as sellers pushed the price back to nearly its starting point this week. Is it profit taking? What do institutions know that we don't, as they increased their long positions this week? 81% of institutions are long. So, where the whales are is where I want to be.
Note: This is not advice. This is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
GOLD (XAUUSD) 1H Chart | Bullish Breakout Idea With Key Zones > "Gold is showing strong bullish structure on the 1H timeframe. Price is approaching key breakout zones with momentum building. This idea highlights critical support/resistance levels and potential breakout targets. Watch for confirmation before entry."
This is just idea not a financial advice !
Gold Bulls Back in Control After BreakoutHaving broken triangle resistance stemming from the record highs and cleared horizontal resistance at $3367, things are once again looking bullish for bullion. Add in renewed upward momentum in RSI (14) and a bullish MACD crossover, and the preference remains to buy dips and topside breaks.
$3367 now looms as a key level to build bullish setups around, offering a logical area to establish longs with a stop beneath for protection. It would be preferable to see gold retest and bounce off $3367 before entering the trade.
$3434 screens as an initial upside target, with a clean break likely to put gold on a collision course with the record highs at $3500.
Good luck!
DS
Gold hourly chart bears dominateFrom the gold 1-hour K-line chart, the current price continues to be suppressed by the key resistance level of 3325. This Friday, the Asian and European trading sessions showed a clear downward trend, reaching a low of 3271. The rapid rebound on Thursday easily induces investors to chase the rise, but the decline on Friday once again shows that there is a major market wash-out behavior. Given that the overall weak consolidation pattern on Friday is expected to face new downward pressure at the beginning of next week. At present, the gold 1-hour moving average system has turned to a short arrangement, and a golden cross signal has not yet been formed, indicating that the short momentum is continuing to accumulate. Therefore, I suggest adopting a rebound short trading strategy. If the price fails to break through the 3310 resistance level after the rebound, you can consider establishing a short position near this position next week to seize the opportunity to continue the short trend. Operational suggestions: Consider the layout of short orders after the price rebounds to the 3308-3312 range. This key area needs to be paid special attention.
GOLD winning the market is my focus with the structure and character .follow the market and try and be careful with today NFP.
Gold Sell Outlook After gold created a record high. It started to retrace, but once again buyer took control of the market; however, the sellers waited for another opportunity to load
Risk no more than one percent
Follow risk management
Break out confirmed. Expect some retraces on the way up . Enter on dips . 3400-500 are next targets .
Gold bulls are accumulating momentum, and bulls are counterattac
Gold head and shoulders bottom pattern is ready to go, and bulls are aiming at the key breakthrough of 3325
Market review
Last Friday, gold showed a typical shock wash pattern:
The Asian and European sessions were supported by the 4-hour head and shoulders bottom pattern, and stabilized several times in the 3285-3290 area, but were constrained by the large cycle trend to suppress 3325 (actual high point 3322);
Institutional buying intervened during the US trading session, and it quickly dropped to 3283 and then pulled up 30 US dollars to 3306, but it smashed the market again in the late trading and broke through 3280 to 3271, and finally closed above 3280, forming a "break to lure shorts" signal.
Key technical signals
Weekly level:
The big positive line in the previous week laid the bullish foundation, and the negative closing last week was a normal correction. This week, pay attention to the 10-day moving average support 3270 and the 5-week moving average buying 3295. If it stabilizes, it is expected to restart the rise.
Daily pattern:
The price continues to run near the middle Bollinger line, and the long and short directions are pending, but the large-cycle support and suppression are gradually narrowing, indicating that a breakthrough is imminent. The right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom is built at 3285. If the pattern is established, the theoretical increase will be at least 50 US dollars (the target is 3350-3370 after breaking through 3325).
4-hour head and shoulders bottom structure:
Left shoulder 3285-right shoulder 3285 form symmetrical support, and the neckline position 3325 is the key breakthrough point for bulls. After breaking through 3280 at the end of Friday, it was quickly recovered, confirming the nature of the wash, and the short-term moving average system was glued together, ready to go.
Trading strategy
Bull layout:
Go directly to the 3295-3300 area during the day, defend below 3280, and the first target is 3320-3325;
If it breaks through 3325 strongly, you can add more positions to chase more, looking up to 3340-3350, and the ultimate target is 3370 (need to cooperate with non-agricultural data catalysis).
Risk warning:
If it unexpectedly falls below the 3270 neckline support, the pattern will be invalid and it is necessary to turn to the idea of oscillation.
Conclusion: Gold is in the key accumulation stage of bulls, and the explosive rebound of the head and shoulders bottom pattern may start at any time. Traders need to keep a close eye on the 3325 breakthrough signal and grasp the trend.
Gold turns lower despite big silver breakoutGold has turned lower on the day, slipping after it failed to hold above the key $3400 resistance level. Despite a major breakout in silver, gold couldn't ride the wave, turning negative as risk sentiment improved on news of a "very positive" Trump-Xi call and renewed US-China trade talks.
The move also came alongside firmer commodity currencies and a rebound in USD/JPY, adding further pressure on the yellow metal.
Technically, yesterday’s inside bar low at $3343 is now the immediate bearish target, with further downside potential toward the $3320–$3330 support zone. If the recent swing low near $3250 breaks, bulls could be in real trouble.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
D1 looking BullingGold on Daily TF looking buy till 3,780$ per ounce on 4h it’s on strong Support zone.!
Let see on monday what will do.!
Note: it’s not financial advice, Trade your own.
XAUUSD - 15M BUYPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD 15m chart some kind of (MSS) from previous 1HOUR high. With in 1 hour previous high area I saw liquidity grab & also market structure shift. looking for buy from this area.
Gold at Key Rejection Zone: Will the Drop Resume from $3310?By examining the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after some consolidation between $3294 and $3302, the price finally began a sharp drop, correcting down to $3245. This area was a key demand zone on lower timeframes, which triggered a rebound, and gold is now trading around $3310. If the price gets rejected from the $3310–$3313 zone, we can expect another potential decline.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
XAUUSD H4 Outlook — Monday, June 2, 2025"Premium Exhaustion, CHoCH Confirmed — Is the Reversal Loading?"
👋 What’s up, traders — let’s break down the 4H structure for Monday flow.
The 4H chart shows gold consolidating tightly around equilibrium (~3289) after a failed attempt to reclaim the premium zone. Price created a Lower High (LH) at 3360 and printed multiple CHoCHs + BOS to the downside. We are now seeing short-term distribution inside a narrow range, with supply active around 3296–3302 and liquidity building below.
The market is showing signs of internal weakness: smart money has absorbed buyers in premium, and price is rotating lower, looking for fresh liquidity.
🔹 Market Structure (H4)
Structure Element Level / Detail
Trend Shift Bearish (CHoCH + LH)
Current Price ~3289 (equilibrium)
Major LH 3360
Confirmed CHoCHs Multiple — last seen on May 30
Short-Term Flow Bearish compression toward discount
🔹 Key H4 Zones (Refined)
📍 Zone Name Level (Rounded) Confluence
🔺 H4 Supply Block 3296 – 3302 OB + internal FVG rejection zone — short trigger area if retested
🔺 Final Inducement Trap 3326 – 3340 LH zone — liquidity inducement if price spikes early in the session
🔹 Intraday Support Zone 3274 – 3270 EQ edge – support under current price, bounce or break zone
🔻 Breakout Sell Zone 3244 – 3232 CHoCH/BOS zone → clean sell-side continuation if broken
🔵 Discount Buy Area 3188 – 3172 Deep FVG fill + May structure low → possible long reentry zone
🔹 EMA Flow (5 / 21 / 50 / 100 / 200)
⚠️ EMA5 crossed under 21 + 50 → short-term bear confirmation
✅ Price is under EMA21 and EMA50 — bearish control
🛑 EMA200 (3172) sits near discount demand → strong reaction likely if reached
🔹 Game Plan for Monday (Execution Bias)
🔻 Sell Setup #1 (Scalp to Swing):
If price retests 3296–3302 → look for bearish PA → short toward 3244
If that breaks → continuation target = 3188
🔺 Buy Setup (Low-Probability Until Reclaim):
Buy only valid below 3188 on strong bullish PA or LTF CHoCH
Aggressive long possible only above 3340, but that invalidates LH
🔚 Summary:
Gold on the 4H is rotating bearish — premium has rejected, CHoCHs confirmed, and EMA structure is rolling over. Price is compressing just under supply, signaling a potential breakdown to clear sell-side liquidity.
Your edge this week lies in patiently waiting for retests of broken structure or rejection from clean OB zones.
💬 If This Helped You:
💡 Drop a LIKE if this gave you clarity on the H4 rotation
📲 Follow GoldFxMinds for real-time execution plans and sniper entries
👇 Comment your view: Will 3244 break first — or are we bouncing at 3270?
Let’s stay tactical this week.
— GoldFxMinds
XAUUSD Monthly Outlook – May 2025"Momentum Meets Maturity: Gold Faces Its Final Trap?"
🔹 Overview:
Gold has delivered an explosive rally through Q1–Q2 2025, breaking all structural ceilings and printing a new All-Time High (ATH) at 3500 in April. May followed with aggressive bullish continuation, but failed to break that high, closing with a strong body but signs of momentum cooling. We are now trading inside a premium liquidity zone, where retracement becomes increasingly probable.
🔹 Monthly Structure & Bias
🔎 Component Status / Detail
Current Price Range 3285–3310
Market Bias Bullish, but overextended
ATH Confirmed 3500 (April 2025)
May High 3435 – did not break ATH
Structure HH + BOS above 2108 = bullish macro
EMA Trend Full EMA 5/21/50/100/200 bull lock
RSI Likely near overbought (watch June)
🔹 Refined Monthly Zones – GoldFxMinds Precision
📍 Zone Type Key Levels Explanation
🔺 Premium SELL Zone #1 3335 – 3368 First rejection layer inside premium. Previous wick reactions.
🔺 Premium SELL Zone #2 3368 – 3405 Final inducement from May. Ideal for stop hunts and traps.
🔺 ATH Trap Zone 3405 – 3500 Full liquidity cluster around ATH. Extreme caution here.
🔹 Local Monthly Support 3112 – 3098 Minor support below May’s PNL. First reaction floor.
🔹 FVG/OB Buy Zone 3060 – 3038 Valid monthly FVG + OB zone. Stronger confirmation area.
🔵 Macro Swing Support 2638 – 2612 Monthly OB and last HL before the 3000+ breakout. Solid base.
🔵 BOS Origin / HL Base 2592 – 2570 True origin of macro bullish structure. Swing trader interest.
⚫ Equilibrium Major #1 2280 – 2265 Fibonacci 50% of full macro range + EMA50. Potential macro reentry.
⚫ Equilibrium Major #2 2245 – 2212 Liquidity from past accumulation zones (2023–2024).
🔹 Fibonacci Context
Full swing: 1045 (2015 low) → 3500 (ATH April 2025)
Price is now pressing between the 1.618 and 2.0 extension zone, ideal area for macro distribution.
The 50% equilibrium of the macro range sits at ~2240, aligning with EMAs and historical demand.
🔹 Liquidity Analysis
✅ Buy-side liquidity swept at every major milestone: 2108 → 2500 → 3000 → 3300
🎯 Final liquidity pool lies above 3435 into 3500 → this is where many late buyers could be trapped.
💧 Sell-side liquidity sits cleanly around 3110 → 2590 → 2240 — these are the likely draw targets if correction begins.
🔹 Macroeconomic Context (May–June 2025)
📰 Federal Reserve: Markets expect a possible rate cut in Q3, which still supports gold, but with less surprise.
🌍 Geopolitical Risks: Persistent global instability continues to back the gold rally.
🧮 Equity Overextension: Rotation from risk assets to safety could fuel one more push — or trigger a sharp correction.
💹 Inflation Outlook: Any spike in CPI may trigger further bullish flows — but positioning is already saturated.
🔚 Summary – What's Next?
✅ Trend: Still bullish, but at the final stages of maturity
⚠️ Risk: Sharp rejection likely near 3435–3500
📌 Scenarios to watch:
Push into 3435–3500: Final inducement → possible sharp rejection
Break below 3110: Opens path to 3038 or even 2630
Major swing buys only valid around 2638 or 2240, if macro retracement triggers
🧠 GoldFxMinds Final Word:
The monthly chart shows strength, but we are now deep inside premium, under the shadow of a freshly printed ATH. If June opens with a wick or false breakout above 3435, expect a high-probability retracement toward 3110 or deeper.
This is not the time to chase buys blindly — but rather to position smartly at real OBs and FVGs, where structure confirms.
Today’s gold strategy: go long on support and short on pressure!Today, there is a high probability that the volatile bullish trend will continue. In terms of operation, we should seize the opportunity of short-term bullish. The key support level of the daily line is around 3350-3355. If it falls back to this level, you can arrange short-term bullish with a light position. If the market is strong and there is no obvious correction, you can enter the long position in advance at the 3370 line. Pay attention to the upper resistance level of 3400-3405. Once it breaks through effectively, wait for the opportunity to arrange short positions after the surge. In the volatile market, both long and short positions have opportunities. Don't chase the rise and sell the fall. Be sure to wait patiently for the right time to enter the market and strictly control the position.
Gold operation suggestions: short gold rebounds around 3400-3405. Go long gold when it falls back to around 3350-3360. Go long at 3370 first if it is strong and does not pull back.
Will gold continue to rise?From the 4-hour chart, as long as the short-term gold market is above 3330, gold is still in a strong bullish trend. On the contrary, if it falls below the closing line near 3330, it will break the trend line, and the subsequent market will most likely form a weak shock pattern. Therefore, the current operation is actually very simple. As long as the 3330 position is not broken, you can rely on the 3330 area to enter the market and do more. Pay attention to the support near yesterday's low of 3333 below, and pay attention to the resistance near 3375-3380 above.
Gold operation suggestions: It is recommended to go long on gold when it falls back to 3345-3347, stop loss at 3335, and target 3360-3370;
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
It's been a fantastic start to the week with the red box holding nicely to give traders the short trade using the red boxes and KOG's target levels, which are all completed for the week here.
We now have support below at the 3285 level which if continues to hold, should give traders another opportunity into that 3306-10 region. We've already taken one into 3304, so for us no more trading until tomorrow. That's the level to watch in our opinion for a potential flip.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSD_4H&1DGold Analysis
Medium and long-term time frames
Elliott Wave Analysis Style
Gold can continue to rise as long as it can maintain the ascending trend line
The important short and medium term numbers and ranges are $3280 to $3300.
