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6.26 Gold intraday operation strategy, rebound 42-48 line shortFrom the 4-hour analysis, the upper resistance is around 3342-48. The intraday rebound relies on this position to continue to be short and follow the trend to fall. The short-term support below is around 3314-3316 integers. The upper pressure is around 3342-48. The overall support relies on this range to maintain the main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycles. The short-term long-short watershed is 3370. It is difficult to say that it is strong before the daily level breaks through and stands on this position. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the session, so please pay attention to it in time. Gold operation strategy: 1. Short the gold rebound at 3345-48, stop loss at 3356, target 3317-3325, and continue to hold if it breaks;
TVC:GOLDShort
by AIan_Gold
1
XAU/USD Struggles Below 3352, Bearish Pressure Remains ActiveXAU/USD Below Pivot, Watching 3352 for Bullish Confirmation Gold prices edged up today as investors shifted their focus to the U.S. fiscal situation and lingering uncertainty ahead of the July 9 deadline when U.S. tariffs are set to take effect. But at the same time, we have strong resistance on the way. The price continues to move below the pivot level and the 3352 resistance, which together form a strong supply zone. A confirmed breakout above 3352 on the 4H candle is needed to validate a bullish move toward 3365. However, the possibility of a renewed decline remains unless the price also breaks above 3365, which would confirm a continuation of the upward trend. The bearish trend remains active as long as the price trades below the pivot at 3348 and the 3352 level. Sustained trading below this zone would likely lead to a decline toward 3320 and 3313. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 3352 - 3365 - 3400. Support Levels: 3320 - 3313 - 3218. Pivot Line: 3348
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
7.1 London gold rebounds and rises, gold market trend analysis aGold rose to 3295 in the Asian session on Monday and was blocked. It fell in the European session as we expected, but the decline was not strong. After the lowest price of 3274.57, it rose again in the US session and stood firmly at the 3300 mark. The monthly line closed with a cross Yang K. The gold price continued to rise at the opening today. After the market on Monday, the 3247 below can be used as a reference for the bottom rebound position. Now the short-term trend belongs to the bulls, so we will continue this trend today and look at the upward trend first, wait for the European session to see the strength of the decline and then formulate the idea of ​​the US session. From the market point of view, after the gold price stood above the 3300 mark again, it is used as a short-term support level reference for the bulls. The Asian session can rely on this position to arrange long orders to see the continuation of the upward trend; the initial pressure on the upper side focuses on the 3328 position, followed by 3345. Now that the idea is established, the idea for intraday operations is: wait for the gold price to pull back to around 3308 in the Asian session and then go long and bullish, protect the 3300 mark, and target around 3328; if there is pressure at 3328 in the European session, you can arrange short positions with a downward trend, wait for the US session, and then decide whether to go long again based on the pullback position and target around 3345.
TVC:GOLDLong
by AIan_Gold
2
Gold Retests Ascending TrendlineGold has pulled back to a key technical level, despite a mix of conditions that would usually support higher prices. This signals a potential shift in how investors are positioning for risk, inflation, and growth. Gold Ignores the Playbook You’d be forgiven for expecting gold to be higher. The past week saw softer US dollar action, rising bets on interest rate cuts, and inflation numbers that nudged uncomfortably higher. On paper, these are the sort of developments that traditionally give gold a boost. But the metal barely blinked. The May core PCE figure, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose more than expected to 2.7%. Yet bond markets took it in their stride, with rate futures continuing to price in a strong chance of easing by September. At the same time, the US dollar lost ground, with the dollar index down over 1% on the week. That sort of move would usually feed straight through into dollar-denominated commodities like gold. This time, it didn’t. Part of the answer lies in geopolitics. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has cooled tensions that previously underpinned gold’s safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, equity markets keep printing new highs, led by tech and growth stocks. Investors are shifting from protection to participation, favouring assets that benefit from improving trade flows and global demand. The latest US-China trade deal, focused on rare earth exports, only adds to that narrative. For now, risk-on is winning. All Eyes on the Trendline While the macro backdrop has turned more complex, the technical picture for gold remains clearly defined. After a strong rally into April, the market has entered a period of consolidation. A lower swing high formed in May, which was retested and rejected in June. That rejection triggered the most recent two-week slide, bringing the precious metal back to its rising trendline. This trendline, in place since December 2024, has guided the broader uptrend and held firm on three previous tests. Once again, it finds itself under pressure. Whether it holds this time is an open question. Trendlines are only as good as the demand that supports them, and in a consolidation phase, that support can often be patchy. The nature of consolidation is a kind of controlled drift, plenty of movement, but not much commitment. If the trendline does give way, that doesn’t necessarily spell the end of gold’s bull cycle. But it would likely open the door to a deeper correction, with the May swing lows in play. That area also aligns with the volume-weighted average price anchored to the December 2024 lows which is a key reference point for longer-term participants. For now, gold is in wait-and-see mode. It is still above support, but no longer behaving like a market in control. If the broader risk-on mood continues, we may see further rotation away from safe havens. But if the growth narrative starts to wobble, don’t be surprised if gold finds its voice again. Gold Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by Capitalcom
Watching Gold Tap Liquidity Before the Next DropGold is still clearly in a bearish structure on the 1 hour chart. We’ve seen a solid break of structure to the downside and price is now retracing. What stands out is how price is pushing back up into multiple areas of interest. There’s liquidity resting just above this minor high along with a fair value gap and the underside of a bearish trendline. This cluster makes it a likely spot for sellers to step back in. If price fills the imbalance around that FVG, it could set up the next leg lower. I’ll be watching closely for signs of rejection in this zone to see if the market is ready to continue the move down. No reason to rush in early. Let price come to the levels that matter and confirm with a reaction. Staying patient pays.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by J4mesWick
Gold in a Pause – Pullback or Opportunity?Hey traders! What’s your take on gold today? Gold is currently in a pullback phase after its recent rally, hovering around $3,278 with the $3,300 level acting as short-term resistance. On Friday, the US dollar gained momentum while Treasury yields climbed across the curve, putting pressure on the yellow metal. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran — further reducing gold’s safe-haven appeal. 📊 On the chart, bearish momentum seems to be in control for now, with $3,300 emerging as a key zone. For sellers, it could be a solid entry on a retest. For buyers, it might serve as a perfect bounce zone if bullish momentum returns. So, which side are you on? Drop your thoughts below — and as always, happy trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Edward_TradingFX
Gold Drops Sharply as Risk Appetite ReturnsGlobal gold prices extended their sharp decline into the final trading session of the week, sliding more than 1.5% and pausing around $3,274/oz as safe-haven sentiment continues to erode. 📰 What’s driving the sell-off? The primary trigger is the official signing of a trade agreement between the US and China, marking the end of a prolonged trade standoff. US Commerce Secretary confirmed that more agreements will follow before the July 9 deadline, including a commitment by China to supply rare earths to the US. This announcement sparked broad optimism across global markets, significantly reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Geopolitics also turned more constructive. Iran has expressed diplomatic goodwill, with its UN representative stating the country is ready to negotiate a regional nuclear coalition if a deal with Washington is reached. Meanwhile, Al Arabiya reported that the Israel–Gaza conflict may conclude within two weeks, further lowering geopolitical tensions. On the data front, US economic indicators continue to surprise to the upside. Core PCE rose 2.7% YoY in May, beating forecasts, while durable goods orders and jobless claims both reflected strength in the US economy. Still, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated that two rate cuts are likely in 2025, suggesting the Fed remains open to easing once inflation cools further. 🔍 Technical outlook Gold has broken below the key $3,330 support, confirming a short-term bearish structure. If the correction continues, the next levels to watch are $3,245, and more critically, the $3,200 zone. In the short term, gold faces downside risk due to improving global economic sentiment and easing geopolitical threats. However, over the medium to long term, Fed policy shifts and unforeseen geopolitical events could still reverse the current trend. Stay alert, watch the charts, and trade smart. Have a great weekend, everyone! 🌍📊
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Edward_TradingFX
XAUUSD – Smart Money Flow & Weekly OutlookGold reacted precisely at the key OB zone near 3270. Following a clear Break of Structure (BOS) on the H4, Smart Money may be redistributing positions. 🔍 Main scenario: Price is expected to retrace to the 3349–3360 OB zone, where strong sell-side reactions may occur. If that fails, the next likely move is a drop toward the high-liquidity demand zone at 3215, where buyers could re-enter. 📰 Key macro drivers: Final GDP and PCE data show slight economic cooling in the US, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain higher-for-longer rates. Trump’s recent comments stir political uncertainty, increasing safe-haven demand for gold. 🎯 Strategy: Look for confirmed short setups near 3349–3360. Consider longs at 3215 if strong bullish reaction forms.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EliseLunaTraders
1
Scalping Strategy Using BOS & OB | Gold Spot | by Mohsen MozafarDescription: > This is a 30-minute scalping setup on Gold Spot (XAU/USD), based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC) — focusing on Break of Structure (BOS) and Order Blocks (OB). Analysis and strategy are prepared by Mohsen Mozafari Nejad. --- 📊 Market Context: Current Structure: Bearish Short-Term Market Structure: MSU (Market Structure Up) Efficiency: Confirmed (clean price action & response zones) --- 🧠 Technical Highlights: 1. Double BOS confirms recent shifts in momentum 2. TLQ (Top Liquidity Quest) formed after HH (Higher High) and liquidity sweep 3. Key Demand OB identified (labeled A) — valid based on BOS confirmation 4. Expecting a bounce from OB (A) towards (B) as a reaction to unfilled imbalance 5. Potential drop from TLQ zone (B) to (C) if liquidity is fully absorbed --- 🎯 Scalping Plan: Entry Zone: Order Block at (A), waiting for CHoCH or bullish price action confirmation (preferably on lower timeframe like M5) Stop Loss: Just below OB (around 3327) Take Profits: TP1: Near TLQ / Extreme zone (B) TP2: Further liquidity grab or possible continuation above previous HH --- ❗ Alternative Bearish Scenario: If price fails to hold at OB (A) and breaks below 3327 with BOS, → short opportunity opens toward new lows at 3314–3310 (labeled C). --- ✅ Summary: This is a clean scalping setup following SMC principles: BOS → OB → Liquidity → Reaction Focus on structure, precision, and quick confirmation signals. Prepared by: 📌 Mohsen Mozafari Nejad
OANDA:XAUUSD
by mmozafari1357
1
Gold bulls V-shaped reversal, price is rushing to 3350Gold trend analysis: Geopolitical risks still exist, technical side is strong and volatile The recent situation in the Middle East presents a cycle of "conflict-easing-re-escalation". After a brief exchange of fire between Iran and Israel, Israel turned to attacking surrounding armed forces, and geopolitical risks have not completely dissipated. Such "deterrent conflicts" may recur, and the support effect of risk aversion on gold will ferment intermittently. The market needs to be alert to sudden events that drive the price of gold to rise in a pulsed manner. 4-hour cycle Indicator signal: Stochastic indicator golden cross, MACD double lines sticking upward, showing the accumulation of bullish momentum. Key pressure: 3340 (upper rail of the descending channel), breaking through will open up the upward space. Short-term support: 3295 (yesterday's top and bottom conversion position), if lost, it will turn to oscillation. Hourly line pattern Short-term moving averages are arranged in a bullish pattern, the low point of the callback gradually moves up, and the structure is strong. 【Operation strategy】 Main idea: Focus on low-long positions when the market is pulled back, and try to go short with a light position at the pressure level of 3340-3350. Long order: enter the market at 3300-3305, target 3315-3320, stop loss 3292. 【Risk warning】 If the geopolitical conflict intensifies again, the gold price may quickly break through 3340, and the strategy needs to be adjusted in time. During the US trading session, pay attention to the impact of US economic data on the US dollar.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Liz_Trading_gold
Excellent start of E.U. sessionAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: I am Highly satisfied with my Profit and will take early weekend break, not catching a Falling knife." I have monitored the Price-action from sidelines throughout Friday's session as explained above however mid E.U. session I have engaged two #100 Lot Buying orders on #3,278.80 few moments ago and closed both of my Scalps on #3,285.80 with excellent Profit. Quick update: No Swing orders today, only aggressive Scalps similar to Scalp orders I mentioned above from my key re-Buy points. If #3,300.80 is recovered, newly formed Bullish structure will push for #3,313.80 and #3,327.80 test. If #3,300.80 benchmark is preserved, I will still keep Buying (Scalp only however). I will have Gold's major move revealed after today's session.
TVC:GOLDLong
by goldenBear88
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to youThe current gold price stands at $3,288. The gold market was volatile in the early session: after the opening, prices plunged all the way, hitting a low of $3,247 at one point. However, it quickly rebounded, climbing back above $3,280. It was quite a roller-coaster ride, full of thrills. **Influencing Factors** - **Geopolitical Situation**: While the Middle East (situation) had eased earlier—such as the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which weakened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset (COMEX gold futures fell over 2% on the day the ceasefire was reached)—Trump stated today that he would consider bombing Iran again and abandon plans to lift sanctions. This reignited market safe-haven sentiment, attracting some bargain-hunting buying to support gold prices. - **Monetary Policy**: Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been fluctuating. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 81.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged in July, and a 76% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by September. The previously released U.S. PCE data exceeded expectations, and coupled with the impact of tariff policies on the pace of rate cuts, these factors are swaying gold’s trend. - **Capital Flows**: Global gold ETF demand turned negative in May, with funds in North America and Asia leading the outflows. This put pressure on the gold market—it’s like the water flowing into the gold market has dwindled, or even started to flow out, pulling prices downward. **Technical Analysis** Last week, gold’s overall trend leaned toward a pullback, with the lowest price touching around $3,255, and the weekly chart closing with two consecutive. Gold even breached $3,250 last Friday, but rebounded slightly at the start of this week supported by that level. However, there is significant pressure in the $3,300–$3,310 range above. If gold can stand firmly above $3,300 this week, the short-term trend may shift. But if it continues to trade below $3,300, it will likely keep falling, possibly testing around $3,200. Moreover, the non-farm payroll data will be released this Thursday (due to the U.S. market closure on Friday, the data is being released early). This timing quirk could also trigger unusual volatility in market sentiment this week. On the daily chart, moving averages are in a bearish alignment; the MACD lines are below the zero axis with a death cross formed, and the green energy bars are expanding—indicating that bearish momentum is dominant. However, the RSI is around 39, near the oversold zone, suggesting a potential short-term rebound for a correction. *Trading Strategy** Wait for gold to rebound to the $3,310–$3,305 range to short. This level is a key resistance zone mentioned earlier; if prices can reach here, it will signal persistent bearish pressure. Set a stop-loss around $3,320 to guard against a breakout above resistance and a sustained rally. The initial target can be the $3,290–$3,280 range, where you can gradually close positions for profits based on price movements and market sentiment. If prices continue to fall, adjust the target accordingly—for example, toward around $3,250. Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you XAUUSD sell@3310~3305 SL:3320 TP：3290~3280
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by David_Wilson1
Gold continues to be weak, but be careful about operations 📣Gold prices fell 2% last Friday, hitting a near one-month low. Optimistic trade-related agreements boosted risk appetite and weakened the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. This week, the market will usher in a group meeting of major central bank governors around the world (Fed Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong). The market will also usher in non-agricultural data. In addition, Powell's remarks on whether to resign may ignite the market this week. Gold prices may fluctuate more around the lower track of the Bollinger Band at $3,270/ounce this week. Technical analysis: Last Friday, the K-line had a lower shadow, and the Bollinger Band did not diverge. It is not easy to go short directly in operation, but wait for the rebound to confirm 3295 and the key resistance of ma5 to be short. 💰 Operation strategy: Rebound to 3280-3283 to go short, target 3270-3265, stop loss 3288-3290
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by labaronAA
1
Gold trend next week: shorts are dominant, longs are secondaryGold trend next week: shorts are dominant, longs are secondary (June 29, 2025) Analysis of current market situation and key price levels: The gold market has completely entered the short-dominated stage, and the technical pattern shows a typical step-down trend. This week, the market rebounded to only $3,321 before continuing to fall, breaking through the 3,300 psychological barrier, the 3,280 technical support level and the daily level trend line, forming a standard downward channel. The current price is testing the key support area of ​​3,250-3,270. Moving average system: The 50-day moving average (3,325) and the 200-day moving average (3,288) formed a death cross, and the price continued to fall below all major moving averages. Trading volume characteristics: When COMEX gold futures fell below 3,300 points, the trading volume increased to 180% of the daily average, indicating an increase in short positions. Position structure: CFTC data showed that speculative net long positions fell to the lowest level in 12 months. A single buy order of more than 5,000 lots (about 160 million US dollars) appeared in the 3270 area. Operation strategy for next week: Scenario 1: 3270 support level is effective (probability 40%) Rebound target: 3295 points (intraday) → 3313 points (intraweek) Operation suggestion: Radicals can try to go long with a light position at 3268-3272 points. (Stop loss 3258) Conservatives wait for a breakout of 3285, then fall back to 3278 for follow-up All long orders are closed in batches above 3310 Scenario 2: Direct break down (probability 55%) Downward target: 3250→3232 (April low)→3200 psychological barrier Operation strategy: Current price short orders can be held to 3250 to close half of the position Rebound to 3285-3290 to increase short positions (stop loss 3303) After breaking 3250, be cautious in chasing shorts (to prevent short-term short covering) Scenario 3: Range oscillation (probability 5%) Volatility range: 3270-3295 Event-driven strategy: Focus on July 1 ISM manufacturing PMI (North 22:00 Beijing time) Fed officials' speeches (especially Williams' speech at 09:30 on July 2) Institutional order flow analysis: There are stop-loss orders worth about $320 million below 3270 Above 3300, there are about $280 million of sell orders (mainly from CTA strategies) Special tips for risk control Liquidity risk: Market liquidity may drop sharply before the July 4th Independence Day holiday in the United States Risk of sudden policy changes: There may be changes in the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine Technical traps: Beware of the "false breakthrough" that may appear in the 3270 area Note the weakening of the short-term correlation between US Treasury yields and gold In the current market environment, it is recommended to adopt the "main short and secondary long" trading strategy. For short-term traders, the rebound opportunity in the 3270 area is worth participating in with a light position; Mid-term investors should remain patient and wait for clearer reversal signals or lower safety margins. A panoramic analysis of the gold market in June: an in-depth interpretation of geopolitics, monetary policy and price trends. The current gold market is at a critical turning point, with multiple factors interweaving to affect the short-term fluctuations and long-term trends of gold prices. As of June 29, 2025, the international gold price has experienced violent fluctuations, falling from the high point at the beginning of the month to a low point in the past four weeks, and market sentiment has shifted from optimism to caution. This article will comprehensively sort out the latest gold market dynamics, deeply analyze the impact of geopolitical risks, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the global economic situation and technical factors on gold prices, and look forward to the possible trend of the gold market in the future, providing investors with a comprehensive market perspective and strategic recommendations. The latest gold price trends and market overview: In June 2025, the international gold market experienced significant price fluctuations, showing a trend of "first rise and then fall". As of the close of June 28, the spot gold price was $3273.11/ounce, down 1.64% from the previous trading day, hitting the lowest level since December 2024; The multiple factors that led to the plunge in gold prices include: The strengthening of the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, the easing of geopolitical risks, and the intensification of technical selling. The US core PCE price index released on June 27 rose 2.8% year-on-year, higher than market expectations. Several Fed officials publicly stated that "interest rates may be raised by another 50 basis points this year", causing the US dollar index to soar to 107.5, which strongly suppressed gold. At the same time, the two sides of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict reached a phased ceasefire agreement on June 25, and the market's risk aversion demand dropped sharply, and the gold ETF holdings decreased by 42 tons in a single week. Technically, the gold price fell below the key point of $3,400, triggering a large-scale liquidation of algorithmic trading. The trading volume of gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) surged to three times the usual day, further exacerbating the downward momentum. From the perspective of market structure, the current gold market shows obvious differentiation characteristics: On the one hand, institutional investors such as hedge fund giant Bridgewater Fund were exposed to reduce their holdings of gold ETF shares by more than 30% and increase their holdings of US Treasury bonds; On the other hand, Goldman Sachs lowered its three-month gold target price from $3,600 to $3,100 on the grounds that "the upward cycle of real interest rates has not ended." This shift in institutional behavior reflects the market's pessimistic expectations for gold's short-term prospects. It is worth noting that despite the short-term weakness, long-term support factors for gold still exist. Global central bank demand for gold purchases increased by 18% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. Central banks in emerging markets such as China and India continued to increase their holdings of gold to diversify foreign exchange reserve risks. In terms of physical demand, the China-India wedding season (June-August) and the expected "October" consumption peak season, gold jewelry demand accounted for more than 45% of global total demand, and China's gold consumption in 2025 may exceed 1,200 tons (an increase of 8% year-on-year). This resilience of supply and demand fundamentals provides potential support for gold prices. The impact of geopolitical risks on the gold market Geopolitical factors have always been an important variable affecting gold prices. Changes in the global geopolitical pattern in June 2025 have had a significant impact on the gold market. The sharp fluctuations in gold prices this month are closely related to the evolution of geopolitical events such as the situation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These events directly affect the demand intensity of gold as a "safe haven asset" by changing the market's risk aversion sentiment. The situation in the Middle East has experienced a transition from tension to relaxation this month, becoming a key driver of the rise and fall of gold prices. In early June, concerns about the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran pushed the price of gold to $3,415 per ounce. Market data shows that for every 10 points increase in the historical geo-risk index, the price of gold has risen by an average of 2.3%. However, as Israel revised the hostage negotiation plan, direct conflict between Iran and Israel was temporarily suspended, and tensions in the Middle East showed obvious signs of easing. In late June, Trump publicly declared that "the Israel-Iran conflict is over", further weakening the market's risk aversion demand. The fading of this geo-risk premium directly led to a decline in the attractiveness of gold as a safe haven asset, becoming one of the important factors for the decline in gold prices. The development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict also had a significant impact on the gold market. On June 25, Russia and Ukraine reached a phased ceasefire agreement. This breakthrough has significantly boosted market risk appetite and further weakened the safe-haven demand for gold. Prior to this, the market had generally worried that if the ceasefire negotiations broke down or the scope of the conflict expanded, it might push up the volatility of gold prices. The conclusion of the ceasefire agreement eliminated this uncertainty, resulting in a 42-ton decrease in gold ETF holdings in a single week, reflecting the rapid cooling of investors' risk aversion. It is worth noting that although geopolitical risks have eased recently, potential risk factors still exist. The "proxy war" in the Middle East (such as the attack on Red Sea merchant ships by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen) is still ongoing, and the security risks of global energy transportation channels (such as the Suez Canal) have not been completely eliminated. In addition, geopolitical variables such as the 2025 US election (November) and the expected winter offensive of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may still push up safe-haven demand in the future. The "safe-haven attribute" of gold as an important safety cushion for its price has not completely disappeared. From historical experience, the impact of geopolitical events on gold often presents the characteristics of "buy expectations, sell facts". When a geopolitical crisis first appears or escalates, the price of gold usually rises rapidly; once the situation eases or the solution becomes clear, the price of gold will fall back. The market performance in June 2025 once again verified this rule. However, our team believes that the current easing of the geopolitical situation may only be temporary, and the structural contradictions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have not been fundamentally resolved. New conflicts may still break out in the future, which will provide potential support for gold prices. In terms of the interactive relationship between geopolitics and gold prices, the market needs to pay attention to several key nodes: First, whether the situation in the Middle East will be repeated, especially the direction of relations between Iran and the United States and Israel; Second, whether the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine can continue, and whether large-scale military operations will be restarted in winter; Third, the uncertainty of geopolitical policies in the US election year, especially the policy statements on key regions such as the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. These factors may rekindle the market's risk aversion in the future and drive the gold price to rebound. Analysis of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the trend of the US dollar: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trends and the trend of the US dollar have always been the core factors affecting the price of gold. The changes in the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies in June 2025 directly led to the sharp fluctuations in the price of gold. As an interest-free asset, the price of gold is negatively correlated with the actual interest rate level, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has a profound impact on the trend of the US dollar index and global capital flows, which makes the Federal Reserve's every move affect the nerves of the gold market. In June, the Federal Reserve's policy stance showed a clear hawkish turn, which put heavy pressure on the gold market. The US core PCE price index released on June 27 rose 2.8% year-on-year, higher than market expectations. This data strengthened the reason for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. Several Federal Reserve officials subsequently publicly stated that "another 50 basis points of interest rate hikes may be made this year", causing the US dollar index to soar to 107.5, a recent high. According to the CME "Fed Watch" tool, as of June 27, traders bet on a 79.3% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July, and only 20.7% expected a single rate cut of 25 basis points; in the forecast for September, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 or 50 basis points reached 74.9% and 19.1%, respectively. This change in interest rate expectations directly pushed up the US dollar and suppressed the price of gold denominated in US dollars. There are obvious differences within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the timing of rate cuts, and this policy uncertainty has exacerbated the volatility of the gold market. Some officials emphasized the resilience of the job market and the potential upside risks of inflation, and believed that it was necessary to wait for more economic data observations after the implementation of tariff policies; Other views tended to take preventive easing measures in the fall. In his speech after the June interest rate meeting, Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that "there is no rush to cut interest rates", further dampening the market's expectations for a shift in monetary policy in the short term. This inconsistency in policy signals has caused gold investors to wait and see, and some funds have chosen to temporarily withdraw from the gold market. The strong rebound of the US dollar index is a direct factor suppressing gold prices. As the market's expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates heat up, the US dollar index has rebounded significantly from its annual low and has broken through the 107 mark as of June 28. The strengthening of the US dollar makes gold denominated in US dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies, suppressing international demand. Technical analysis shows that the cyclical (monthly) turning point of the US dollar index is coming. Due to its recent obvious downward trend, the impact of this turning point is obviously biased towards the US dollar, which may further suppress gold prices. It is worth noting that there is a dual mechanism for the impact of the Fed's policy on gold. In the short term, the hawkish stance pushes up the US dollar and real interest rates, directly suppressing gold prices; but in the medium and long term, maintaining high interest rates may increase the risk of economic recession, which may enhance the safe-haven appeal of gold in the future. The current market is in a stage of game between these two forces, which is also an important reason for the intensified volatility of gold prices. The Fed's balance between suppressing inflation and avoiding a hard landing of the economy will determine the future direction of gold. In the coming period, the market needs to pay close attention to several key data points to judge the direction of the Fed's policy: First, the change in inflation data around the deadline for tariff suspension on July 9; Second, employment and GDP data before the Fed's interest rate meeting in September; Third, the impact of global supply chain conditions on core inflation. These factors will jointly determine the Fed's policy path, and thus affect the medium-term trend of gold prices. If the US economic data shows obvious signs of slowing down, it may restart the market's expectations for interest rate cuts, which will provide upward momentum for gold; On the contrary, if the economy remains resilient and inflation remains high, gold may continue to be under pressure. Analysis of the global economic situation and gold demand: Changes in the global macroeconomic environment have a profound impact on the gold market. The complex situation of the global economy in June 2025 has created a structural differentiation in gold demand. On the one hand, trade policy uncertainty and concerns about slowing growth support the safe-haven demand for gold; On the other hand, the inhibitory effect of high gold prices on physical consumption and the adjustment of the pace of gold purchases by some central banks put pressure on gold prices. This interweaving of long and short factors puts the gold market in a delicate balance. The uncertainty of tariff policy has become an important variable affecting the gold market. The US government has made it clear that it will not extend the suspension period of import tariffs, which will expire on July 9. This decision will directly affect the global supply chain costs and inflation levels. Although the specific adjustment plan has not yet been announced, the market is generally worried that if the new tariff measures are implemented, it may push up the price pressure on the production side, thereby indirectly supporting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. At present, the United States has not reached an agreement framework with its major trading partners (including the European Union), and policy uncertainty may continue to provide support for gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by louisa111222
XAUUSD Technical Analysis – 02/07/2025On the 1-hour chart, Gold (XAUUSD) has just confirmed the completion of corrective wave (4) around the 3,328.3 zone, which aligns with the 1.0 Fibonacci level and EMA9 support. Currently, price is rebounding with increasing volume, signaling that buying momentum is returning. Key Technical Highlights: Elliott Wave Structure: Wave (4) found support at 3,328.3. Wave (5) targets are forming, with Fibonacci extensions pointing to: 0.618: 3,360.05 1.0: 3,380.07 => These are critical resistance zones to watch. Fibonacci Retracement Zones: The current rebound is heading toward the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels of the previous down leg, located at 3,362.4 and 3,354.4 – short-term upside targets. Volume Analysis: Rising volume on bullish candles confirms a legitimate buying interest, supporting the upward movement. EMA9 Breakout: Price has broken above the EMA9 at 3,338.2, shifting short-term trend bias to bullish. Suggested Trading Strategy: Favor Buy on Dip entries near the 3,340–3,342 zone if a minor pullback occurs. Short-term targets: 3,354 – 3,362 Extended target: 3,380 Suggested stop loss below 3,328.0 to manage risk. Conclusion: A bullish impulse is forming following the end of wave (4). If price holds above 3,340 and breaks through the nearby Fibonacci resistance levels, wave (5) could extend towards the 3,380 area. This is a pivotal moment to watch for a confirmed short-term uptrend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
1
XAUUSD Has Ascending channel breakdown selling strong now🔔 XAUUSD Update – 4H Breakdown Alert! Gold (XAUUSD) has officially broken down from the ascending channel, signaling strong bearish momentum starting from 3322. 📉 Technical Targets Ahead: 1️⃣ 3280 – First demand zone 2️⃣ 3240 – Next key demand zone 3️⃣ 3160 – Major support level We're seeing solid selling pressure, and the 4H timeframe confirms the structure shift. Keep an eye on price action around these zones for potential reaction or continuation. 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👍 Like | 🔁 Share | ✅ Follow for live insights and real-time market updates. Join the team for more smart trades & updates 💼 — Livia 😜
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LIVIATRACK
2