Expecting Gold bullish Movement Gold (XAU/USD) has exhibited a strong bullish reversal from the key support zone near 3325 marked by the red area on the chart The price formed a series of higher lows indicating bullish momentum buildup before breaking out sharply above the descending channel and resistance zone around 3340
Following this breakout, the market is now consolidating above the broken resistance, which is acting as new support signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend
Key Levels
Target 1 3365 3370 grey resistance zone
Target 2 3385 3390 major resistance zone
If price holds above the support at 3340 and continues forming higher lows, we expect bullish continuation toward Target 1 and eventually Target 2 if momentum sustains Traders should monitor price action closely at each target zone for potential reactions or reversals
GOLD trade ideas
Bearish Sentiment (Jul 16 Wed) | Intraday S/R for Swing TradingSentiment: Bearish
🟢 Support Levels
1. 3319.20 – Minor support near Friday’s bounce zone
2. 3307.60 – Key support from early U.S. session rejection zone
3. 3296.10 – Institutional support / demand buildup
4. Extreme Support: 3283.40 – Break below this opens extended sell-off zone
🔴 Resistance Levels
1. 3338.70 – Minor resistance from overnight price action
2. 3349.80 – Key resistance aligned with previous close and seller defense
3. 3361.00 – Strong intraday ceiling, potential short trigger
4. Extreme Resistance: 3375.20 – Break above this signals risk-on bullish momentum
7.15 Gold Market Analysis and Operation SuggestionsFrom the 4-hour analysis, the short-term support below focuses on the neckline of the hourly line of last Friday, 3340-45, and focuses on the support of 3325-30. The intraday retracement continues to follow the trend and the main bullish trend remains unchanged. The short-term bullish strong dividing line focuses on the 3325 mark. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to follow the trend and bullish rhythm. Before falling below this position, continue to follow the trend and follow the trend. Maintain the main tone of participation.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Go long when gold falls back to 3340-45, and add more when it falls back to 3325-30, stop loss 3317, target 3365-70, and continue to hold if it breaks;
Report - 10 jully, 2025Germany Pushes European Rearmament — Supply Chain Call to Action
Key Developments
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius demands the defense industry “stop complaining and deliver,” pushing for accelerated production.
Berlin plans to raise annual defense spending to €162 billion by 2029 (+70% vs. current), the largest defense expansion since WWII.
Focus on munitions, drones, tanks, submarines, fighter jets.
Long-term contracts with annual purchase obligations to provide production certainty and encourage new capacity.
Meeting with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to secure US support and coordinate Patriot missile supply (Germany has only 6 left).
Despite Ukraine’s renewed requests, Germany will not send Taurus long-range missiles.
Strategic Analysis
Germany’s pivot (the "Zeitenwende") signals a historic shift toward a leadership role in European defense, stepping up as US support for continental security wanes. The move reshapes Europe's industrial base and procurement priorities, creating a structural, multiyear demand boom in defense production.
This strategic acceleration responds to:
Russia's aggression and rapid advances in Ukraine.
A fragmented EU defense industry needing standardization and scale.
The risk that delays in rearmament could embolden adversaries.
Market & Investment Implications
Bullish outlook for European defense primes: Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, KMW, and MBDA.
Strong orders pipeline supports supplier valuations and capital investments.
Defense-focused ETFs and long-cycle industrial funds gain attractiveness.
Potential execution risks: capacity bottlenecks and regulatory procurement hurdles.
North Korea’s Unconditional Support to Russia — New Security Axis
Key Developments
Kim Jong Un pledges "unconditional support" for Russia’s Ukraine war effort during Lavrov’s visit.
North Korea has reportedly sent 13,000 troops and 12 million artillery shells since October, with plans for more troops this summer.
Joint military and economic ties deepening: possible new infrastructure projects and North Korean goods in Russian markets.
Strategic Analysis
The explicit military alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang cements a new anti-Western axis in Northeast Asia. North Korean boots on the ground in Ukraine (even indirectly) create significant escalation risks and could legitimize wider allied responses.
Market & Security Implications
Increases global defense spending momentum, particularly in missile defense and artillery systems.
Heightens regional security risk premium in Northeast Asia, reinforcing demand for US-Japan-Korea trilateral cooperation.
Potential new sanctions regimes targeting Russian and North Korean trade.
EU to Intensify Foreign Subsidy Investigations
Key Developments
EU to expand probes into foreign-subsidized companies, particularly Chinese, using the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR).
Target sectors: chemicals, pharmaceuticals, cars, batteries, and green tech.
FSR empowers Brussels to block public procurement bids, M&A deals, and restrict single-market access.
Strategic Analysis
A clear industrial policy pivot: Brussels seeks to protect European value chains, local talent, and technological sovereignty. The EU is signaling it will emulate China’s own JV requirements to force knowledge transfer and local investment.
Market & Corporate Implications
Defensive boost for EU industrial and tech players — potential reshoring and local capacity expansion.
Risks for Chinese EV, solar, and battery players in Europe.
New compliance costs and operational hurdles for multinationals with Chinese JV exposure.
EU Temporarily Suspends Tariff Retaliation Against US
Key Developments
EU delays €21 billion in planned retaliatory tariffs on US exports following Trump’s 30% tariff threat.
Negotiations ongoing; additional €72 billion of potential retaliatory measures being prepared.
Germany’s finance minister stresses continued “serious talks,” warning of possible decisive countermeasures if negotiations fail.
Strategic Analysis
EU seeks to avoid a major trade war escalation that could hit vulnerable industries (aircraft, agriculture, luxury goods). The postponement reflects both economic pragmatism and strategic patience.
Market Implications
Near-term relief for European cyclical exporters and automotive supply chains.
Volatility risk persists; underlying uncertainty keeps global supply chain hedging active.
Global Health Risks from Western Aid Cuts
Key Developments
Wellcome Trust warns that sharp cuts in Western aid (e.g., 83% of USAID programs, UK’s 40% cut) could lead to deaths exceeding those caused by COVID-19 in Africa and other regions.
Reductions threaten vaccination programs, HIV/AIDS prevention, and basic health infrastructure.
Strategic & Social Implications
Rising health crises could create regional instability, migration pressures, and political fragility.
Potential for emergent humanitarian crises to undermine global economic resilience and security.
Crypto Firms Move Toward US Banking Integration
Key Developments
Ripple, Circle, and BitGo seek national banking charters; Kraken to launch crypto-backed debit/credit cards.
Trump administration’s pro-digital asset stance and proposed Genius Act accelerating integration of stablecoins with Treasury backing.
Strategic Analysis
Crypto players are rapidly shifting from an anti-establishment stance to a regulated model, seeking legitimacy and direct ties to the US banking system. This is a major strategic pivot toward mass-market adoption and integration.
Market Implications
Growth catalysts for regulated digital asset ecosystems.
Opportunities in infrastructure (custody, payment rails, compliance tech).
Regulatory framework evolution remains a key risk factor.
US-Japan Relations Enter Critical Phase
Key Developments
Sharp deterioration in US-Japan ties as Trump imposes tariffs and demands higher defense spending (up to 3.5% of GDP).
Japan’s requests for tariff exemptions rebuffed; possible alliance strain.
US threatens to halt Okinawa troop relocation plans, creating a defense strategy crisis.
Strategic Analysis
Deepening transactional approach by US administration risks destabilizing one of Washington’s most strategic alliances. Japan’s ability to recalibrate is limited, leading to potential security vulnerabilities vis-à-vis China and North Korea.
Market & Policy Implications
Elevated geopolitical risk premium in Asia-Pacific.
Potential reassessment of Japanese defense contractors and broader regional security investments.
Possible long-term tailwinds for local defense and cybersecurity initiatives.
Copper Tariff Uncertainty — Global Supply Chain Alert
Key Developments
US plans 50% copper tariffs from August 1; manufacturers seek clarity.
Copper critical for EVs, semiconductors, defense, and green infrastructure.
Stockpiles may last 6–9 months; longer-term supply risk remains acute.
Strategic & Market Implications
Significant inflationary pressures in downstream sectors.
Supply chain disruptions could affect US manufacturing competitiveness, defense readiness, and green transition timelines.
Potential opportunities for non-US copper producers and recyclers.
Apollo's UK Pension Play — Bulk Annuities Strategy
Key Developments
Athora (Apollo-backed) acquires Pension Insurance Corporation for £5.7bn, entering the UK’s £500bn pension de-risking market.
Signals strategy shift as US private capital increasingly integrates with retirement and insurance liabilities.
Strategic Analysis
Apollo’s model of “permanent capital” (buying long-duration liabilities to invest in high-yielding private assets) advances further into Europe. The move addresses demographic pressures and opens new fee streams.
Market Implications
Bullish for Apollo and similar alternative asset managers.
Heightened scrutiny by regulators on risk transfer and solvency.
UK pension de-risking market consolidation may create opportunities for specialized asset managers.
Overall Global Themes & Recommendations
Themes
Structural defense rearmament and deterrence strategies reshaping Europe and Asia.
Geopolitical realignments create new economic blocs and challenge global supply chains.
Rise of state-supported industrial policies in Europe (FSR) and US (tariffs).
Growing integration of crypto into mainstream finance under a friendlier US regulatory regime.
Recommendations
Overweight: European and US defense primes, cybersecurity, regulated crypto infrastructure.
Underweight: Asian export-heavy sectors highly exposed to US tariff risk, particularly Japan.
Selective Long: European industrial reshoring beneficiaries, US pension risk transfer facilitators.
Monitor: Copper and critical mineral supply chains for inflation pass-through and supply constraints.
XAU/USD: Analysis and Strategy Amid Trade ConflictsA rate cut this month is highly unlikely, with the earliest possible delay to September. Currently, the gold market trend is still dominated by tariff factors. Although the tariff war was extended for 90 days in April, the 10% base tariff imposed on all trading countries during this period has already made the total tax revenue of these three months reach 70% of that in previous years.
Trump's launch of the tariff war has clear core goals: first, to directly increase U.S. fiscal revenue; second, to boost exports through policy inclination, while helping enterprises increase profits to expand the tax base; third, to promote the growth of domestic employment. Just last weekend, his administration announced that it would impose a 30% tariff on the European Union and Mexico, and the new regulations will take effect on August 1.
Against this backdrop, the escalation of trade conflicts has become increasingly obvious. For gold, this means continuous and strong support, and the certainty of its upward logic has been further enhanced. From a long-term perspective, the gold market is not expected to see a deep correction in the second half of the year.
After pulling back to around $3,280 last week, the price has embarked on a sustained upward trajectory and now fluctuates within the range of $3,345-$3,380. For this interval, a strategy of buying low and selling high would be appropriate.
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GOLD TRADING IN BEARISH TREND IN 4H TIME FRAMEGold price forming Lower lows which indicated Bearish trend movement.
Price is currently moving in Secondary Trend.
In upcoming sessions secondary trend may end and price may start forming Primary trend.
After a candlestick reversal pattern, Gold may continue to fall.
Price may hit the support level of 3250$ in upcoming sessions.
On higher side 3450$ may act as an important resistance level.
GOLD EYES 3,360 BREAKOUT – IS THIS THE BUY SETUP?Gold is currently trading around $3,355, up 18 pips from yesterday. The bullish momentum is fueled by rising trade tensions as Trump imposes 35–50% tariffs on Canada and Brazil, along with a weakening USD and falling U.S. bond yields.
Technically, gold maintains a clear uptrend with higher lows. The $3,360 zone is now a key breakout level — if breached, price could surge toward $3,432. As long as gold holds above $3,250, the bullish structure remains intact.
What’s your move — breakout or pullback?
Elliott Wave Update – Is Wave 2 Complete?OANDA:XAUUSD
We're currently in an ABC correction following our Wave 1.
Potentially, Wave C is already completed, which would mean that Wave 2 has found its top.
❗ Why do I say potentially?
Because there's still a chance we could see a higher high before the real drop begins.
However, based on the current structure, I believe the top is in ✅
⚠️ Key Confirmation – White Trendline
📉 If we break below the white trendline, it confirms the end of Wave 2.
Then I expect a 5-wave move down:
➡️ (1) - (2) - (3) - (4) - (5)
📈 If the trendline holds, we might still see a higher Wave 2 before reversal.
📏 Fib Zones are marked on the chart for confluence and targets.
Let’s see how price reacts in the coming hours. A confirmed breakdown would set the stage for the next impulse ⚡
Gold elliot wave countMarket Structure – Corrective Wave 2 Still in Progress
We're currently in a Wave 2 correction, unfolding as a classic ABC structure – labeled with Circle A → Circle B → Circle C.
✅ Circle A and Circle B are already complete.
We're now in the move from Circle B → Circle C, which itself is unfolding as a:
→ (A) → (B) → (C) (in parentheses)
Currently, we are in the move from (B) to (C), which again is breaking down as a smaller A → B → C move.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
📈 We might now be completing Wave A of (C) around the 3362 level.
🔁 A pullback to around 3322 could follow as Wave B,
➡️ leading to a final Wave C (of (C), of Circle C, completing Wave 2) targeting around 3405.
⏳ What’s Next?
Once we hit the 3405 zone, that would potentially complete the entire Wave 2 correction.
From there, I expect a trend reversal to the downside, beginning the next impulsive wave down.
GOLD LONG FROM RISING SUPPORT|
✅GOLD is trading in an uptrend
And the bullish bias is confirmed
By the rebound we are seeing
After the price retested the support
So I think the growth will continue
LONG🚀
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Falling correction, shorting in European session📰 News information:
1. Beige Book of Federal Reserve's economic situation
2. European and American tariff trade negotiations
📈 Technical Analysis:
Currently, gold continues to consolidate around 3340, and the daily MACD indicator is stuck to the zero axis. Two consecutive days of negative bars also indicate that the overall trend of gold is weak and volatile. The hourly Bollinger Bands are closing, with the upper band located near 3352. The corresponding positions of the upper pressure middle band and SMA60 are basically at 3335-3350, but it is expected to gradually decline over time. On the whole, there are no particularly clear trading signals at present. Both bulls and bears have certain opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. Pay attention to the 3342-3352 area above. If the bearish trend is confirmed in the future, you can consider shorting when it rebounds here, with the target at 3330-3325. If gold retreats directly to 3325-3320 and gains effective support again, you can consider going long.
🎯 Trading Points:
SELL 3342-3352
TP 3330-3325
BUY 3325-3320
TP 3340-3350
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FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
It is expected to fluctuate and fall before CPI data📰 News information:
1. Focus on tomorrow's CPI data
2. Bowman's speech at the Federal Reserve
3. Tariff information outflows and countries' responses to tariff issues
📈 Technical Analysis:
The 1H chart shows that the gold price continued to pull back last night and then fluctuated at the bottom, and continued the rebound trend this morning. The key pressure level is the top and bottom conversion level. The current rebound in gold is only a secondary confirmation of the top structure at the 30-minute level. After reaching 3365, it has shown signs of short-term pressure. In a volatile market, if the price begins to consolidate horizontally, it may indicate the end of this round of volatile upward trend, and it will enter a downward phase later. Considering the market sensitivity before the release of CPI data, it is recommended to focus on the volatile decline trend. After today's rebound, it is necessary to focus on the 3365-3368 area as a short-selling range, and the long-short defense position is set at yesterday's intraday high of 3375. The support below focuses on the 3350-3340 range.
🎯 Trading Points:
SELL 3358-3368
TP 3345-3333
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold recently tapped into key liquidity zones✨ Gold Market Update – Key Insights You Need to Know ✨
Gold recently tapped into key liquidity zones—specifically the highs of the previous day and the previous week. After grabbing liquidity at those levels, the market closed below them, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
🔻 What could be next?
This price behavior suggests we might see further downside in the short term, possibly targeting the Fair Value Gap (FVG) below. If that area is reached, the market may find support and stage a rebound, potentially triggering a strong bullish move from that zone.
📊 What to watch for:
Price reaction around the FVG
Confirmation of support before entering any long positions
Volume and structure shifts on lower timeframes
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR) and manage risk wisely.
XAUUSD – Topping Out, Correction Pressure MountsGold prices are stalling after approaching the key resistance at $3,381, precisely at the upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel. The bullish momentum is fading as the USD and U.S. bond yields remain firm, supported by stable jobs data and a lack of clear rate guidance from the Fed.
Additionally, the World Gold Council (WGC) has warned of medium-term correction risks if geopolitical tensions ease or the dollar continues to strengthen — prompting buyers to stay cautious. In the near term, XAUUSD may pull back toward the $3,295 support zone before the market defines its next direction.