Escalating U.S. Debt Crisis Coupled with Weaker U.S. DollarPowell Unleashes Rare Dovish Signal, Gold Rebounds to $3,330
In yesterday's speech, Powell remarkably signaled policy easing, explicitly stating the Fed "will take appropriate actions to sustain economic expansion," driving gold's short-term rebound to the $3,330 threshold. Technically, gold is now locked in a strong consolidation range of $3,300–$3,350, with the Bollinger Bands midline at $3,325 emerging as the focal point of long-short battles.
The U.S. Dollar Index hit a new low today, while the U.S. debt crisis is set to raise the borrowing ceiling again—both tailwinds for gold's upward momentum.
Trading Strategy Recommendations:
- Short at Resistance: Enter light short positions between $3,345–$3,350, set stop-loss at $3,360, and target a pullback to $3,320.
- Long at Support: Initiate staggered long positions in the $3,310–$3,300 support zone, set stop-loss at $3,290, and target a rally to $3,340–$3,345.
- Volatility Trading: Exploit range-bound movements around the $3,330 midline, aiming for 8–12 dollar profits per trade.
Market Note: With the dollar weakening and debt ceiling tensions resurfacing, gold's safe-haven appeal is reinforced. Maintain position sizes below 5% and strictly enforce $15 stop-loss orders to navigate news-driven volatility.
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
GOLD trade ideas
XAUUSD GOLD📈 GOLD (XAU/USD)
📊 Timeframes:
⏱️ 30-Min & 1-Hour
🟢 Long Trade Plan
🔍 Analysis Highlights:
✨ Bullish Divergence spotted
🚀 Breakout Trade
🎯 Trade Details:
🛑 SL: Marked on chart 🔴
✅ TP1: Mentioned on chart 🥇
🏁 TP2: Mentioned on chart 🥈
📌 Chart levels clearly labeled
📬 For any queries regarding chart: comment in message section
💡 Trade smart, manage risk! 📉📈
#Gold #XAUUSD #BreakoutTrade #LongSetup #BullishDivergence #TradingView #TradePlan
XAUUSDXAU/USD Trade Analysis – SELL Setup
Trade Idea: A short position on Gold (XAU/USD) is recommended, as we are currently observing a bearish outlook.
Entry Zone: The ideal entry for this trade is between the levels of 3323 and 3325, where we anticipate a potential price reversal or continuation to the downside.Stop Loss: Set the stop loss at 3336.00, just above the key resistance zone. This provides a safe buffer in case the market moves against the trade, while ensuring limited risk exposure.
Take Profit Levels:
🎯 TP1 (3318): The first target is 3318, a key support level, where price may pause or consolidate before further movement.
🎯 TP2 (3315): The second target is 3315, representing a more significant support zone that could attract buying pressure.
🎯 TP3 (3310): The final target is 3310, where a deeper retracement might unfold, offering the most profit potential.
XAUUSD 1H | Harmonic AB=CD | Sentiment Reversal in PlayGold has formed a clean Harmonic AB=CD Pattern, with price currently sitting at the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). This aligns with technical expectations for a possible bullish shift.
🗓️ The recent sharp sell-off in Gold was heavily influenced by the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, triggering fear, panic, and speculative selling. Despite Gold's fundamentally bullish bias as a safe-haven asset, market sentiment overpowered fundamentals in the short term.
🔍 On the 30min LTF, we have a crystal-clear Bullish Divergence on RSI, adding further confluence that downside momentum is weakening, and a corrective reversal may unfold from this area.
Bias:
✅ Harmonic AB=CD complete — PRZ active
✅ LTF Bullish Divergence (30m) confirmed
✅ Price action showing exhaustion at key support
✅ Expecting potential bullish reaction and relief rally
⚠️ As always, waiting for confirmation with proper risk management. Market remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
💡 DYOR — Do Your Own Research before executing trades.
Wave 2 Corrective Phase Over!Now that Wave 2 correction is over or very close to completion, I am now waiting for an impulse move up by buyers.
Following this impulse move, I will look for a ‘Minor Wave 2 Correction’, where I will start looking for entry points to buy Gold.
What’s your bias on Gold & what do you think the next major move is?
Gold prices rebounded weakly after a sharp plunge!After Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, market risk aversion significantly cooled, and gold prices plunged by more than $30 in early trading. From a technical perspective, the moving average system of gold's daily chart shows an intertwined state, with relatively balanced bullish and bearish forces. Currently, the key resistance above is near 3350, which is an important psychological threshold. If effectively broken through, it may open up an upward space; the support level below focuses on the 3285-3290 range, which is the lower edge of the May platform (shock platform). If broken, it may exacerbate pullback pressure. The loss of the middle 轨 (middle track) in the 4-hour chart further confirms the short-term weak structure, providing technical support for the downward trend. It is recommended to go long near 3285-3290 during the pullback in the evening, but currently, gold continues to decline following the trend.
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Trading Strategy:
buy@3290-3295
TP:3335-3340
XAUUSD Drop H4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently holding the falling wedge pattern on H1 & H4 now market is range of 3290-3330 structural support. On last setup we had 140 PIPS TP HIT.
What's possible scanarios we have?
if H4 remains above 3285-3290 then buy and hold it till 3307 then 3320
On the otherhand if The H4 candle closes below 3280 buyying will be limited and market will trun the new the rangbound 3280-3230
All the setups are executed well and All the entires should be taken If all the rules are Applied
#XAUUSD
XAUUSD - Breakdown: Israel-Iran Conflict - RISK OFF Part III 🚨 Trump announces a ceasefire
This likely kills any chance for TVC:GOLD to retest higher sell zones.
No more upside, just continuation plays for the bears, watch for momentum to pick up on the downside. More market optimism means RISK ON - Gold Bearish , DXY Bounce, Stocks Rally.
Watching the markets today, It was like it wants optimism but the drama with escalations and uncertainty kept it where it was all day, I usually avoid Mondays, but now that this has been announced, we will see Market Optimistic and sentiment drive Gold Lower if there are no further escalations than what has already happened, which simply means the US or Iran would have to do more severe damage beyond what has already happened.
We will be back to Fundamentals driving Gold if there is no other major event!
#XAUUSD #Gold #Ceasefire #RiskOn #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Commodities
Weekend Report – June 22, 2025Market Overview and Equities Performance
Equity markets closed the week with a mixed tone, largely reflecting the balancing act between geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary policy signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the major indices with a modest gain, finishing at 42,086.22, up 35.16 points. In contrast, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 experienced declines, with the latter dropping 93.40 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 index also underperformed, shedding 0.82%, underscoring investor caution toward riskier, less liquid segments of the equity universe. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) edged up to 20.59, reflecting elevated uncertainty across global markets.
Across global equities, developed markets remained broadly lower. Germany’s EWG ETF showed a slight gain (+0.06%), but the UK (EWU -0.82%), France (EWQ -0.28%), and Japan (EWJ -1.82%) underperformed. Among emerging markets, India (EPI -0.87%) showed relative resilience, while Brazil (EWZ -1.46%) and Mexico (EWW -1.48%) dragged down the regional index. Within U.S. sectors, Energy (XLE +0.98%) and Financials (XLF +0.14%) stood out, outperforming other segments. Technology (XLK -1.07%) and Healthcare (XLV -0.64%) were laggards, as risk-off sentiment and rotation into defensive sectors continued.
Fixed Income and Yields
In fixed income, yields fluctuated modestly across maturities and regions. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose slightly to 4.383%, reflecting a cautious reassessment of potential rate cuts, while the 2-year yield settled at 3.916%, keeping the yield curve relatively flat. This structure signals continued investor skepticism around aggressive easing due to sticky inflation and economic resilience. Notably, 10-year German Bunds yielded 2.52%, while UK Gilts touched 4.543%. Japan remained the lowest among major economies, with 10-year JGBs at 1.402%.
Corporate credit segments displayed steady but muted performance. High Grade Corporates (LQD) and High Yield Corporates (HYG) both posted minor gains, supported by a moderate risk-on tone in fixed income. U.S. TIPS, convertibles, and emerging market debt (EMB +0.11%) were among the stronger performers, pointing to selective investor positioning around inflation hedges and credit risk opportunities.
Sector Rotation and Style Performance
Sector rotation data highlighted a clear tilt toward defensives. Consumer Staples (XLP +0.73%) and Utilities (XLU +0.27%) outperformed, while cyclical sectors like Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.04%) and Technology (XLK -1.07%) lagged. This rotation reflects growing concerns over both geopolitical spillover and the delayed effect of higher interest rates on the real economy.
Factor performance relative to the S&P 500 showed Buybacks (+1.1%) and Hedge Funds (+0.7%) leading qualitative strategies. Growth (-0.2% vs. SPY) underperformed, while Large-Cap Value (IVE/SPY +0.73%) emerged as the day’s strongest style segment. Low Volatility and Momentum factors also gained, up 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, reflecting investor preference for stability. IPOs and Quality-based factors lagged, suggesting waning appetite for newer or less consistent earnings profiles.
Commodities Update
Commodities delivered notable moves, driven by geopolitical and inflation-related themes. Brent crude oil climbed 0.43% to $77.13 per barrel, while WTI crude added 22.46% month-to-date, buoyed by supply disruption fears tied to the Israel-Iran conflict. Gold remained firmly bid, up 2.37% to $3,368.72, with silver also gaining 24.9% year-to-date as investors sought safety amid market uncertainty.
Energy commodities broadly strengthened, while agricultural markets showed mixed results. Wheat gained 3.8%, while corn and sugar extended their declines, down -8.55% and -19.58% respectively in 3-month terms. These diverging trends suggest speculative flows into soft commodities may be tapering as inflation moderates. Meanwhile, industrial metals such as copper and aluminum remained stable, while steel saw some weakness amid global growth concerns.
Currency Markets
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was slightly weaker, as the market reassessed the likelihood of U.S. intervention in Iran and priced in delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts. The euro and pound held steady, with EUR/USD at 1.1516 and GBP/USD at 1.3442. The Japanese yen continued to weaken, reaching 146.17 against the dollar, down over 8% year-over-year. The currency heatmap showed the euro up 7.6% over the past year and the pound up 6.7%, reflecting both relative monetary policy paths and capital flows.
Emerging market currencies, particularly the Turkish lira and South African rand, remained under pressure. Latin American currencies also saw weakness as risk aversion returned. Notably, the Norwegian krone was the strongest currency on the day, gaining 0.92%, while the Indian rupee and Chinese yuan continued to struggle.
Macro Themes and Geopolitical Risks
A range of macroeconomic and geopolitical developments are shaping the market environment. The U.S. Federal Reserve remains divided over the timing of potential rate cuts. Some members, such as Christopher Waller, suggest that easing could begin as early as the next meeting, citing muted inflation effects from tariffs. Others remain cautious, warning about anchoring long-term inflation expectations. President Trump's pressure for deep rate cuts adds political complexity to the Fed’s independence.
Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified, contributing to volatility in energy markets and risk-off flows in global equities. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains a central concern, particularly for Gulf energy infrastructure and military alliances. European markets, while initially lifted by negotiation prospects, remain susceptible to headline risk.
Further complicating the global outlook, the European Union announced restrictions on Chinese medical device procurement, exacerbating trade tensions with Beijing. In commodities and energy policy, investor sentiment is also being shaped by U.S. political developments, with Trump-era tariffs and subsidies creating uncertainty around the future of clean energy investment and industrial production strategies.
All in All:
Markets are currently navigating a volatile and complex macro environment characterized by mixed central bank messaging, geopolitical flashpoints, and shifting investor risk preferences. Equity performance reflects a cautious rotation into defensives and quality factors, while bond yields hold steady as participants wait for clarity on the Fed's next move. Commodities, especially energy and precious metals, are reacting to geopolitical premiums, while FX markets reflect shifting global capital allocations.
In this environment, diversification, quality exposure, and tactical risk management remain paramount. The coming weeks will likely hinge on the evolution of Middle East conflict dynamics, additional economic data, and clarity from the Fed. Market participants should brace for volatility, with a potential tilt toward safe havens and low-beta assets in the short term.
Geopolitical Landscape: Gold on a Powder Keg Geopolitical Landscape: Gold on a Powder Keg
1.1 Escalating U.S.-Iran Conflict Ignites Gold's Safe-Haven Demand
Trump claimed the U.S. had successfully destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities, but Iran swiftly responded that it had evacuated the sites in advance, suffering no major losses. This incident has fueled market fears of further Middle East tensions. Iran has even vowed to target U.S. forces and citizens as legitimate objectives, launching large-scale retaliatory strikes against Israel.
Currently, the U.S. has deployed three carrier strike groups in the Middle East—the Nimitz, Carl Vinson, and Ford—forming a formidable military deterrence. Meanwhile, Iran has demonstrated its missile capabilities by firing multiple rounds of ballistic missiles at Israel, including at least one armed with a cluster bomb warhead, significantly raising the threat level.
Such tense geopolitics provide strong safe-haven support for gold. Historical experience shows that gold often becomes investors' top safe-haven asset when military conflict risks emerge in the Middle East. However, the market is divided on the conflict's actual impact: while some fear escalation driving funds into gold, others hope diplomatic talks will ease tensions, potentially prompting partial capital withdrawal for wait-and-see.
On the daily chart, the green bars of the MACD indicator have shortened for three consecutive days, suggesting bearish momentum is waning. These technical signals indicate gold may be accumulating rebound energy after a period of decline. Whether a successful rebound occurs, however, depends on effectively breaking through the resistance level of $3,390/oz.
Analysis of gold trend next week, hope it helps you
XAUUSD buy@3370~3380
SL:3350
TP:3390~3400
GOLD FREE STRUCTUREChina Hong Kong gold vault hints at a geopolitical shift, as the Shanghai Gold Exchange's expansion, aims to enhance China's gold trading infrastructure and challenge Western dominance, potentially impacting demand and supply of physical gold need.
3380-3385 triggered but be cautious
buy zone 3250-3255 reacted and instant buy rejection on the descending trendline.
the Core PCE Price Index (month-over-month): rose by 0.2%, above the forecast of 0.1% and the previous 0.1% reading. This indicates a slight acceleration in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, with the annual core PCE inflation rising to about 2.7% year-over-year, above expectations of 2.6%.
Personal Income (month-over-month): declined by 0.4%, worse than the forecasted 0.3% increase and down from the previous 0.8% rise. This drop suggests a weakening in household income growth.
Market and Policy Implications:
The uptick in core PCE inflation signals that underlying price pressures remain somewhat persistent, complicating the Fed’s path toward its 2% inflation target.
The decline in personal income could weigh on consumer spending going forward, potentially slowing economic growth.
The US Dollar Index reacted by edging lower, reflecting market caution amid mixed inflation and income data.
Fed officials, including Chair Powell, have emphasized a cautious approach, suggesting no immediate rate cuts until inflation dynamics become clearer.
Summary:
Core inflation is ticking up slightly, reinforcing inflation concerns, while personal income weakness points to potential softening in consumer demand. This mixed data supports a Fed stance of patience, with markets pricing in a moderate chance of rate cuts later in 2025 but expecting continued vigilance.
stay cautious on #gold
Gold Analysis and Trading Outlook – June 27Good morning, everyone!
Yesterday, gold encountered resistance in the 3348–3352 zone and fell back to around 3310 before rebounding toward the 3336 resistance area. Today’s session opened with renewed weakness, and so far, the overall price action has closely followed our expectations. Whether it was selling near resistance, buying after the dip, or shorting the rebound, each opportunity yielded solid profits.
Some traders have asked about my strategy’s win rate. Those who’ve followed consistently already know—the overall win rate has remained above 80%, with very few instances of error. Even in the rare case of a misjudgment, I apply specific recovery strategies to minimize risk and avoid large losses. That’s the core reason why I’m confident I can help many traders.
Technically, the daily chart still shows a bearish trend, and prices are now approaching the key 3300 support zone. While the current geopolitical uncertainty adds complexity, it doesn't prevent us from executing flexible intraday trades. In fact, range-bound markets can still be highly profitable with a disciplined approach.
Key intraday levels to watch:
Dynamic support: 3318–3313
Major support: 3300–3287
Resistance levels: 3336, 3348–3352, and 3370
Today’s trades can continue to focus on these levels, using a sell-high, buy-low strategy with flexibility.
Signs of gold bottoming out are emerging
Weakened safe-haven demand: Iran and Israel ceasefire eased geopolitical risks, and gold was under pressure in the short term.
Fed policy expectations: Trump is considering appointing the Fed chairman in advance, and the market is paying attention to monetary policy trends.
Impact of the US dollar and US bonds: The weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US bond yields support gold prices, but the rebound in oil prices may limit the gains.
Focus during the day: US initial jobless claims, Q1 GDP final value and durable goods orders data. If the data is positive, it may suppress the rebound in gold prices.
Two consecutive days of positive closing, bottoming out and rebounding show signs of short-term bottoming, and the key support has moved up to 3295. If the 3312 low is maintained, it is expected to break through the 3340-3345 suppression and further test the 3357-3367 resistance. The 1-hour low is gradually raised, and the 3340 mark has become a watershed between long and short positions, which may accelerate upward after breaking through.
Support: 3325-3315 (strong and weak boundary), 3295 (medium-term bottom).
Resistance: 3345 (breakthrough key), 3357-3367 (strong pressure zone).
Operation strategy
Long layout: retrace to 3325-3320 to stabilize long, stop loss 3312, target 3340-3357.
Short opportunity: light short at 3357-3367 for the first time, stop loss 3375, target 3340-3330.
Breakthrough follow-up: after stabilizing 3345, pull back to chase long, target 3360-3380.
Key tips
Data risk: If the US economic data is stronger than expected, it may suppress the gold price to step back to support.
Trend confirmation: 3295 will maintain the rebound pattern if it is not broken, and it will turn to weak shock if it breaks down.
XAUUSD:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals today have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
During today’s Asian session, we targeted the key support at 3330 and publicly initiated a pullback long strategy. The market fully validated our forecast: three touches of 3330 triggered strong rebounds, with price stabilizing and rallying to 3350 where we took profits—solid daily gains achieved.
Overnight positions: Longs from lower levels remain open as price turns upward, with bullish momentum continuing to strengthen.Firmly hold existing low-level long positions. In an uptrend, every pullback presents an opportunity to add to positions—the depth of corrections will determine the height of future rallies. Stay tuned for the explosive main upward trend!
Trading Strategy:
Adopt a buy-on-dip approach on pullbacks.
buy@3315-3325
TP:3340-3350
Share accurate trading signals daily—transform your life starting now!
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Gold Steady, Dollar Wobbles — Here’s Why🧠 Midweek Market Snapshot | DXY, XAUUSD, BTCUSD
This week’s market action is being shaped by easing geopolitical tensions, Fed rate cut speculation, and safe-haven flows.
🔻 The US Dollar (DXY) continues to weaken as talk of interest rate cuts builds and Middle East tensions cool off.
🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) remains firm, supported by central bank buying and dollar softness.
₿ Bitcoin (BTCUSD) shows strength, holding above $100K after bouncing back from geopolitical dips.
📊 Key drivers:
• Fed rate expectations
• US inflation & job data
• Ceasefire talks between Israel & Iran
• Central bank gold demand
🎥 Catch the quick breakdown on YouTube
📌 Follow for weekly updates, trade ideas, and price insights.
#DXY #XAUUSD #BTCUSD #MarketUpdate #TradingView #MidweekMarketReview #Crypto #Forex #Gold #Bitcoin
Is Gold Gearing Up for a Rebound or More Losses Ahead?Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices dipped but trimmed earlier losses as markets reassessed the durability of the recent ceasefire in the Middle East. Initial relief from the truce eased safe haven demand, but fresh signs of renewed tensions have cast doubt on how long the calm will last, keeping geopolitical uncertainty firmly in play. At the same time, dovish comments from key Fed officials highlighting softening labor data and cooling inflation offered some support, helping to stabilize gold’s pullback.
Technical Analysis:
Technically, XAUUSD retreated and tested the ascending trendline and support near 3300. Holding this level could open the door to a bounce toward resistance at 3500. However, a decisive break below 3300 may trigger a deeper decline toward 3200, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
GOLD Will Go Higher! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 3,326.73.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 3,359.56 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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6/24 Gold Analysis and Trading OutlookGood morning, everyone!
Gold closed yesterday with a T-shaped candlestick. Although there was an intraday recovery after briefly breaching the MA20, the closing price remained below the MA5, indicating continued pressure on the upside.
Today’s opening saw a direct drop in price, suggesting a potential break below key support. Two important levels to monitor today:
Whether the closing price stays above 3355
Whether the intraday support at 3328 holds
If 3328 breaks down, the 3300 level may become the next major battleground between bulls and bears.
Driven by geopolitical news, gold has shown sharp volatility over the past two days. While this increases trading risk, it also presents more opportunities. From a technical perspective, today’s strategy should prioritize selling on rebounds, with buying at lower levels as a secondary approach. As always, stay disciplined and manage risk effectively.