Gold just swept some key lows on 4H and is starting to bounce.I’m keeping an eye on the area between 3355 and 3392 , where we have both the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement and a descending trendline acting as resistance. That area has a high chance of attracting price.
Why I’m watching for a move up:
1. Clean liquidity grab and quick bounce
2. MACD showing early momentum shift
3. Key Fib levels + previous resistance overlap
4. Price still within a large range—this looks like a mid-range rebound
Invalidation: If price drops and closes below the recent low, I’ll step aside.
Potential target: 3350–3390
Stop: Below the most recent swing low
Let’s see how price reacts when/if it gets there.
GOLD trade ideas
Gold, let's fall like crazy
Gold is consistent with our previous analysis. It has reached a new low recently, breaking through the key position of $3,220, ushering in a new round of decline. Some people directly said: It can't hold on.
This time, after the gold price opened lower on Monday, it has been hovering above $3,200-3,220, fluctuating back and forth, and finally failed to rebound successfully.
There are various opinions on the market about the reasons for the decline, and the key point I emphasize is: whether the decline is over must depend on whether the high point before the last decline is lost, and if the key support position is lost, it can no longer be defended.
For example: Yesterday we first entered the market near $3,220 and rebounded to around $3,243, and we have always emphasized the gains and losses of the key position of $3,215. When it is lost here, we must adjust our thinking in time. The difference between us is who can change their thinking faster at the critical moment.
For physical gold or accumulated gold, it is very passive without hedging tools. For example, when the price breaks the key position, it can only be solved by cutting losses. Because of chasing in at a high position, there is no follow-up funds to lower the cost. At the same time, the funds account for too large a proportion of their own cash flow, which will lead to passive beating.
Therefore, the market will not always rise and never fall, nor will it only fall and never rise. The key is how to balance the allocation of funds and risks, whether the key position can be accepted in time after it is lost, rather than holding on to it. Trading is not a simple one-trick win, but a flexible response. For example, gold ETF: I have always been investing weekly, from last year to now, and the proportion will not be too large. The rise and fall in the middle has almost no effect on me, and the leverage method must be to make a day-to-day settlement. If you encounter a unilateral long-term, you will take a bite, and if you don’t encounter it, you will seize the moment.
Okay, let’s talk about today’s gold market:
On Wednesday, the formula for gold application is: Asian market falls, European market continues, and the rebound before the US market is to lure more, and go short when you see a high. The Asian session fell from the high point to $3220 and has been fluctuating repeatedly. After rebounding to $3243 in the European session, it did not continue, but started a wave of decline. The key position of $3215 was broken during the US session, and the short position was confirmed at this time.
Also, today is: the previous day's weak bottom closing, the next day's early trading can still be shorted, today's pressure position is around $3195, the rebound pressure is the position of the early morning high, and then it breaks down to $3150, and the key pressure at this time is the top and bottom conversion.
As shown in the figure, after the bottom oscillation, a new high point moves down and the low point breaks, which is a typical decline. The early morning high of $3195 is the key long-short dividing point, and the top and bottom conversion becomes today's new entry position for shorting. Remember one sentence: Never look for support to go long in a falling market, but look for pressure to go short. When will the decline end: the high point before the last 1-hour or 4-hour decline is broken and closed above this position. The retracement confirms that there is no new low. The market outlook will rebound or reverse. There is no need to guess when the bottom will be reached. The bottom is found, not guessed! ! ! !
Today, gold rebounded and went short in the range of 3165-70. This is the pressure point for the top and bottom conversion. There are three short periods today: the opening rebound high, the top and bottom conversion of the European session rebound, and the rebound before the US session after the European session weakened. The defensive position is above 3195 US dollars, and the focus below is 3145-40-32 US dollars.
XAUUSD 15 MINUTE This chart shows the price movement of Gold Spot vs. the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) on a 15-minute timeframe, with technical analysis suggesting a bearish outlook:
Descending Triangle Breakdown: A descending triangle pattern has been marked, with horizontal support and descending resistance. The price broke down below the support, indicating a bearish signal.
Bearish Chart Pattern: There are multiple lower highs circled, which reflect weakening bullish momentum.
Breakout Confirmation: The recent candlesticks have broken below the support and are retesting the trendline from below—often a confirmation of a breakdown.
Target Projection: The downward arrow suggests a potential price target, possibly based on the height of the triangle formation, pointing toward the 3,110–3,120 region.
This setup implies a bearish continuation unless the price quickly reclaims the breakdown level. Do you want help calculating the exact measured move target or a suggested stop-loss level?
Analysis of the latest gold trend on May 15:
I. Analysis of news
Short-term pressure factors
Fed policy expectations: The market's expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates have strengthened (especially after the release of April CPI data), and the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed gold prices.
US-China trade easing: The rebound in risk appetite has weakened the safe-haven demand for gold, but the impact is limited, and we need to pay attention to subsequent progress.
Global inflation signal: If US inflation data (such as PCE) falls in the future, it may ease hawkish expectations and provide support for gold.
Long-term support factors
Geopolitical risks: Potential risks such as the situation in the Middle East and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine still exist, and safe-haven buying may return at any time.
Central bank gold purchase demand: Central banks of various countries (especially emerging markets) continue to increase their holdings of gold, which has long-term support for gold prices.
II. Technical analysis
Daily level
Short-selling dominance: The big negative line fell below the lower Bollinger track, MACD dead cross and large volume, RSI is close to oversold (42.99), and there may be a rebound correction in the short term, but the trend is bearish.
Key positions:
Resistance: 3200-3210 (top and bottom conversion position), 3230 (5-day moving average).
Support: 3170-3160 (short-term psychological barrier), 3140 (March low).
4-hour level
Downward channel continuation: moving averages are arranged in short positions, MACD crosses below the zero axis, but be alert to the possibility of bottom divergence.
Operation signal: If it rebounds to around 3200 and is under pressure, you can arrange short orders. If it falls sharply to below 3160 without breaking, you can lightly position and bet on a rebound.
3. Operation strategy
Short-term:
Short orders: Enter the market in the 3200-3210 area, stop loss above 3220, target 3170-3160.
Long orders: Try to stabilize around 3160, stop loss below 3150, target 3180-3190 (quick in and out).
Mid-term: If it falls below 3160, look down to 3140-3120; if it stands at 3230, short orders need to be cautious.
IV. Risk Warning
Focus on data:
US April PPI (May 14), retail sales (May 15), speeches by Fed officials.
Sudden news of geopolitical situation may trigger short-term sharp fluctuations.
Position management: The current volatility is amplified, and it is recommended to hold a light position + strict stop loss.
V. Summary
Gold is subject to the hawkish expectations of the Fed in the short term, and the technical side is short-term dominant, but it is necessary to be vigilant against rebound corrections after oversold. Investors need to respond flexibly based on data and events, give priority to high-altitude and cautiously buy at the bottom. In the medium and long term, global economic uncertainty and central bank gold purchase demand will continue to provide support for gold.
Gold Analysis — TradingView Idea (13-May-2025)Chart Observation:
Gold is currently in a corrective downtrend, forming multiple Harmonic patterns.
The recent structure has created a bearish harmonic pattern again, indicating potential continuation of the fall.
Price has retraced into a supply zone but failed to create a bullish breakout.
Key Levels & Strategy:
Critical Breakdown Level: 3225 USD
Below this level, expect strong selling confirmation.
Breakdown of this support will likely trigger aggressive downside movement.
Target Level: 3135 USD
This is the next strong support zone.
Expect price to reach this level swiftly once breakdown is confirmed.
Pattern Behavior:
Historically, such breakdowns lead to impulsive and sharp declines.
Aggressive sellers dominate after confirmation, leading to quick price drops.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk. Please do your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Gold-Possible ShortGold fell quite a bit today, it has formed a bearish cypher on lower timeframes. Price rejected beautifully from the resistance zone of 3249-3246, which also coincides with .786 fib level. It very clearly visible on 1, 3, 5 min timeframes. Price is currently at support zone (3234.5-3231.5) as well as trend line support. If and when this level breaks down and completes a succesful retest, I would enter a short with take profit level at 3210-3208, with stop loss around 3235.
Golden Opportunity: XAU/USD’s Bull & Bear Heist Strategy!Hello Money Makers & Market Bandits! 🤑💰✈️
Get ready to raid the XAU/USD Gold Market with our cunning Thief Trading Style, blending sharp technicals and deep fundamental insights! 📊🔥 Our plan? Strike with precision on both bullish and bearish moves, grabbing profits before the market turns. Let’s outwit the charts and stack that gold! 🏆💸
📈 The Gold Heist Plan
Entry Points 🚪:
🏴☠️ Bullish Move: Wait for a pullback to the Institutional Hidden Buy Zone at 3080—your signal to jump in for bullish gains!
🏴☠️ Bearish Move: Watch for a breakout below the neutral level at 3200—time to ride the bearish wave!
Tip: Set alerts to catch these key levels! 🔔
Stop Loss (SL) 🛑:
Bullish Trade: Place SL at 2960 (4H swing low, Institutional Hidden Buy Zone).
Bearish Trade: Set SL at 3360 (4H swing high).
Adjust SL based on your risk, lot size, and number of orders. Stay sharp—this is your shield! ⚠️
Take Profit (TP) 🎯:
Bullish Robbers: Aim for 3660 or exit early if momentum fades.
Bearish Robbers: Target 3080 or slip out before the market flips.
Escape Plan: Watch for overbought/oversold signals to avoid traps! 🚨
📡 Why XAU/USD?
The Gold Market is in a bearish trend 🐻, driven by:
Fundamentals: USD strength from Fed policy, US growth, and tariffs.
Macroeconomics: US resilience vs. global economic weakness.
COT Data: Bearish speculative bets favor USD.
Intermarket: Rising US yields and equities boost USD, pressuring gold.
Quantitative: RSI and Fibonacci confirm bearish momentum.
🧠 Sentiment Outlook (May 12, 2025)
Retail Traders:
🟢 Bullish: 42% 😊 (Hoping for gold rebound on trade war fears)
🔴 Bearish: 45% 😟 (USD strength and improved US-China relations weigh)
⚪ Neutral: 13% 🤔
Source: Social sentiment & trading platform polls
Institutional Traders:
🟢 Bullish: 30% 💼 (Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty)
🔴 Bearish: 60% ⚠️ (USD rally and higher concrete 5/12/2025)
🟢 Bullish: 30% 💼 (Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty)
🔴 Bearish: 60% ⚠️ (USD rally and higher yields suppress gold)
⚪ Neutral: 10% 🧐
Source: COT reports & institutional flows
⚠️ Trading Alert: News & Risk Management 📰
News can shake the market like a storm! Protect your loot:
Skip new trades during major news releases.
Use trailing stop-loss to lock in profits and limit losses.
Stay vigilant—volatility is our playground, but only with a plan!
💪 Ride with the Thief Trading Team!
Hit the Boost Button to power up our Thief Trading Style and make this heist epic! 🚀 Each boost fuels our squad, helping us plunder profits daily. Let’s conquer the XAU/USD market together! 🤝
Stay tuned for the next heist! 🐱👤 Keep your charts ready, alerts on, and trading vibe high. Catch you in the profits, bandits! 🤑🎉
#ThiefTrading #XAUUSD #GoldHeist #TradingView #StackTheGold
Gold New Update The chart you've shared is a 4-hour (4H) time frame of Gold Spot (XAUUSD) against the U.S. Dollar, showing some clear technical patterns and annotations. Here’s a breakdown and a suggested Trade Plan with Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL):
🧠 Technical Analysis:
Trend:
There is a strong bullish impulse (green arrow).
A potential bull flag or bullish pennant is forming.
A V-shaped recovery suggests momentum is back on the buyer’s side.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.382 retracement (3,352) was tested but not broken.
Current price is hovering around 3,325, close to 0.5 retracement.
Chart Pattern:
Consolidation after the impulse indicates accumulation phase.
Breakout from the consolidation could fuel another upward move.
Forecasted Move:
The blue arrow suggests bullish breakout continuation.
🧾 Trade Plan:
📈 Buy Setup (Bullish Continuation)
Entry: Around 3,325 (current level)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 3,383 (0.236 Fibonacci level / previous resistance)
TP2: 3,450 - 3,500 (next resistance / measured move target)
Stop Loss (SL):
SL: 3,290 (below recent swing low and consolidation support)
🔒 Risk Management:
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2 or better.
Risking ~35 points for potential 60–175 point gain.
XAAUSD GOLD (MY ANALAYS) 2025/5/11I've identified a double top pattern forming on the daily time frame for gold. If the price breaks below the neckline, there’s a key support level around 3200, where I expect a potential bounce. From there, the price could retest the neckline area (around 3235–3250), which would now act as resistance. If the price gets rejected at that level and resumes its downward move, and especially if 3200 support breaks, that would be a prime entry point for a swing trade.
I plan to enter after the break and retest of 3200 and aim to hold the position until the price reaches my target at 2980.
This setup aligns with the idea that 80% of trading is waiting so I’m staying patient and ready to act when the opportunity comes.
Gold rebounded to the expected position, 3205 short!
📌 Driving Event
The announcement of a 90-day trade truce between the world's two largest economies also helped ease recession concerns in the United States, prompting investors to reduce expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (FED). This shift supports the continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields, further suppressing demand for interest-free gold.
📊 Commentary Analysis
Today, the price of gold fell to its lowest point in more than a month. It once hit the lowest level since April 10 at 3120, and then rebounded to the 3200 line, and the volatility increased again!
💰 Strategy Package
Short position:
Actively participate in 3200-3203 points, with a profit target around 3120 points
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose a lot size that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
GOLD-30 MINSCurrent Scenario
Gold has been falling continuously, forming lower highs and lower lows.
The recent up-move is a retracement to the Moving Average Resistance Zone (dynamic resistance cluster).
This zone coincides with a prior supply area, increasing the probability of rejection.
Volume analysis shows weakening bullish momentum, indicating a likely resumption of the downtrend.
Technical View
Price is facing rejection from the Moving Average ribbon (likely EMA cluster).
The broader trend remains bearish, confirmed by structure and volume dynamics.
Current retracement lacks strong buying volume, suggesting a weak bullish attempt.
This is typically a setup for an impulsive fall continuation.
Target Projection
Breakdown from current levels can trigger a sharp fall towards 3075.
Intermediate support exists at 3120 and 3100, but a decisive break will accelerate the down-move.
The price could fall aggressively as it did in previous impulse legs.
Key Levels to Watch
Level Type Price Zone
Resistance Zone 3180 - 3200
Intermediate Support 1 3120
Intermediate Support 2 3100
Expected Target 3075
Reverse Target Zone (Failure) Below 3070
Conclusion
As per chart structure, Gold is more likely to continue its bearish move after this minor retracement.
A breakdown below 3120 could trigger an impulsive fall towards the projected 3075 level.
Close monitoring of volume and price action at the current resistance is advised.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author will not be held responsible for any losses incurred from trading based on this analysis.
GOLD Approaching Key Buy Zone – Massive Bounce Incoming? Gold is currently testing a critical demand zone after a strong retracement from recent highs.
Key Highlights:
Strong Support Zone: Price is sitting right on the demand zone (highlighted in blue), which previously acted as resistance in April and flipped to support in early May.
Trendline Confluence: The ascending trendline from the March lows adds further strength to this zone.
Bullish Risk-to-Reward Setup: Risk is tightly defined below the zone, while the reward stretches back toward the 3,400+ region.
Candle Behavior: Recent candles show indecision (doji-like), hinting at potential exhaustion of sellers.
Trade Idea:
Buy Entry: Around 3,234
Stop Loss: Below 3,150 (just under trendline and demand zone)
Take Profit: 3,440 area (previous high)
This setup offers a solid R:R ratio and aligns with the overall uptrend structure.
Will Gold bounce or break? This level is make-or-break for bulls.
What do you think?
Are you going long or short on XAUUSD?
Do you trust this support zone?
Drop your thoughts below & like if this helped your analysis!
#gold #xauusd #forex #priceaction #technicalanalysis #tradingview #supportandresistance #trendline #bullishsetup #smartmoney #liquidityzone
XAUUSDHey traders!
The second trade of the day comes from XAUUSD (Gold).
Yesterday, due to Trump’s recent remarks about agreements with China, gold saw a significant pullback. However, I believe this drop—whether short-term or long-term—is temporary. In fact, from a macro perspective, I still see gold potentially reaching levels like $3600 in the long run.
But as a day trader, I always aim for setups with 1:1.50 or 1:2 risk-to-reward ratios. That’s my focus. Long-term expectations don’t impact my short-term executions.
🔍 One important note: My signals are often sniper entries, and that’s no coincidence. I closely monitor order flow and volume-based price movements. That’s why, if the price starts moving sideways (ranging) after my entry, I tend to manually close the position to protect capital.
🔍 Criteria:
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2
✔️ Trade Direction: Buy
✔️ Entry Price: 3255.39
✔️ Take Profit: 3265.55
✔️ Stop Loss: 3250.16
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It's a trade I’m taking based on my own system, shared purely for educational purposes.
📌 If you're also interested in systematic and data-driven trading strategies:
💡 Don’t forget to follow the page and subscribe to stay updated on future analyses.
XAUUSD Gold Possible Move 13/05/2025Major Supply Zones:
Upper Supply Zone around $3,275–$3,285: Strong reaction from this area before the massive drop.
Mid Supply Zone around $3,265 - $3,268: Price has reacted again here.
Trendline Liquidity Grab:
Price moved above the internal rising trendline (liquidity sweep).
The wick into the trendline’s upper side aligns with a key supply zone, followed by rejection = potential shift in structure.
Bearish Rejection from Supply:
Confluence zone (circle area) where price might reverse.
Strong rejection seen right after price tapped this zone. possible entry trigger.
Internal Structure Shift:
If price breaks $3,245 support, that confirms CHoCH (Change of Character).
Bearish FVG could be forming just below the supply zone, which may act as resistance on retests.
📉 Trade Signal (Short Setup)
🔔 Entry:
Sell: $3,265 - 68 (if price returns for a retest of supply zone)
OR
Sell Market: If current bearish candle confirms engulfing with strong momentum
🎯 Targets:
TP1: $3,245 (mid support zone)
TP2: $3,220 (major demand zone at the bottom)
TP3 (swing): $3,210–$3,200
🛡️ Stop-Loss:
Above supply zone high: $3,275+
✅ Confluences for Bearish Bias:
Liquidity sweep above trendline
Supply zone rejection
Structure shifting lower
Price action showing rejection wicks
Clean imbalance zones below (liquidity magnets)
Kindly follow, support, comment and share as well.
5/12 Gold Trading SignalsGood morning everyone!
Gold opened lower and extended losses today, influenced by easing China–U.S. trade tensions and ceasefire news from India-Pakistan.
The recent rally was largely driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical concerns. As tensions ease, gold's retracement is a logical market reaction.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
Gold has now returned to a previous consolidation zone . While some support exists, current candlestick structure and most indicators show no clear bullish reversal yet.
Entering long positions too early may pose short-term risks, so trend trades should wait for stronger confirmation.
For flexible intraday trading, watch:
Support at 3263–3246: Holding this zone could trigger a rebound back toward 3309 resistance.
📌 Trading Recommendations:
✅ Sell Zone: 3306 – 3321
✅ Buy Zone: 3218 – 3198
🔁 Range for Scalp/Short-Term Trades: 3294 – 3263 / 3238 – 3269
XAUUSD - The Wyckoff MethodGold is illustrating a classic Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic on 4-hour timeframe, highlighting a transition from a markdown to a markup phase. Initially, the price drops sharply in the markdown phase, falling from around $3,520, signaling strong selling pressure. This is followed by the accumulation phase, where the price consolidates between approximately $3,105 and $3,215 as institutional players quietly accumulate positions. A brief dip below this range forms the spring around $3,104.16—a false breakdown intended to trap sellers—before the price quickly recovers. The subsequent break of structure above $3,214.30 confirms a shift in market sentiment, leading to a clear buying point in anticipation of a bullish move. Price then enters the markup phase, targeting highs near $3,495.13, with a protective stop-loss ideally placed just below the spring. This structure suggests a strong bullish setup. Ideally this trend can be rode until a strong bearish divergence is observed on the Relative Strength Index