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Geopolitics Shake Markets: DXY, XAUUSD, BTCUSD in FocusThis week’s market prep session comes at a critical moment. With the U.S. launching airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, geopolitical tensions are shaking global markets. In this in-depth session, we break down how these developments are impacting: 💵 DXY (US Dollar) – Safe-haven flows and what to expect from Powell’s upcoming testimony 🥇 Gold (XAU/USD) – Why analysts are calling for $3,900/oz amid global uncertainty ₿ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Volatile moves and whether BTC is holding up as a modern-day safe haven We’ll also preview key events like U.S. PCE inflation data and global central bank meetings that could drive major moves. Whether you’re trading FX, commodities, or crypto—this is the market insight you don’t want to miss. 📅 Watch now to position yourself ahead of the curve this week.
FX:XAUUSD
by DeanMuller
XAU/USD 20 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025 Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high. Price is now trading within an established internal range. The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price. As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD – Is a Trend Reversal Brewing Amid US Debt Fears?While gold continues to hover within a tight trading channel for the sixth consecutive week, a major macroeconomic alarm has just been sounded — Goldman Sachs has flagged rising concerns over the trajectory of US debt. For Indian market participants, this could mark a turning point worth close attention... 🌐 MACRO PERSPECTIVE: US DEBT REACHING UNSUSTAINABLE LEVELS America’s fiscal landscape is approaching a critical threshold. The national debt is projected to exceed previous wartime levels, and interest payments alone may cross $1 trillion by 2025 — eclipsing even core sectors like defense and healthcare. Goldman Sachs has raised concerns that if no corrective fiscal steps are taken soon, the US could be forced into abrupt austerity measures — possibly shrinking GDP without significantly reducing the debt burden. Key drivers: unchecked government expenditure, surging borrowing costs, and ongoing political polarization. 📌 For Indian gold traders, such economic vulnerability tends to weigh on the US dollar, fueling renewed interest in gold as both a safe haven and a strategic inflation hedge — assets long favored by Indian investors. 📉 TECHNICAL INSIGHT (M30/H1 UPDATE) Price action on gold continues to respect a defined descending channel. The zone near 3,338.422 serves as a short-term pivot, while resistance looms at the upper channel line near 3,368.048. The EMA ribbon alignment is pointing downward, reinforcing bearish momentum in the short term. Should price fail to breach 3,368, we anticipate a retracement toward the Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 3,325.783, potentially extending deeper to the 3,309.256 zone. ✅ ACTIVE TRADING LEVELS 🟢 Buy Zone: 3310 – 3308 Stop: 3303 Targets: 3314 → 3318 → 3322 → 3326 → 3330 → 3340 → 3350 → 3360 → ... 🟢 Buy Scalp: 3325 – 3323 Stop: 3318 Targets: 3330 → 3334 → 3338 → 3342 → 3346 → 3350 → 3360 → 3370 → ... 🔴 Sell Zone: 3418 – 3420 Stop: 3424 Targets: 3414 → 3410 → 3405 → 3400 → 3396 → 3390 → 3385 → 3380 🔴 Sell Scalp: 3396 – 3398 Stop: 3403 Targets: 3392 → 3388 → 3384 → 3380 → 3375 → 3370 💬 INDIAN TRADERS – KEY TAKEAWAYS As the week draws to a close, post-holiday volatility from the US market may introduce unexpected price moves. Be prepared for sudden spikes that could signal either a clean breakout or a smart money trap. ✅ Maintain discipline with your stop-loss and take-profit levels. Don’t chase the market — let it confirm your strategy. Gold remains technically bearish, but any fundamental catalyst — especially from US fiscal instability — could reverse the trend sharply. Stay ready. Stay smart. Let the charts lead the way.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EliseLunaTraders
XAU/USD: Range Trading Awaiting BreakoutCore Logic: 1.Macro Drivers: Powell's dovish remarks continue to reverberate, with U.S. Treasury yields declining, the U.S. Dollar Index breaking below 97, and the debt ceiling extended to July 24—safe-haven demand props up gold prices. 2.Technical Outlook: Currently trading in a $3,300–$3,350 range, with shrinking volume reflecting market caution. Trend Projection: - Likely to remain range-bound between $3,300–$3,350; a breakout will depend on progress in previously mentioned catalysts. - If data misses expectations or geopolitical risks (e.g., Iran tensions) escalate, gold may rally to $3,360; otherwise, it could test $3,300 support. Trading Strategies: - Long positions: Enter lightly at $3,300–$3,310, stop-loss at $3,290, target $3,340. - Short positions: Sell on rejection above $3,345, stop-loss at $3,360, target $3,320. - Risk management: Cap single-trade exposure ≤3% to mitigate data-driven volatility. I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by H_C_02
GOLD Final GDP q/q Actual: -0.5% Forecast: -0.2% Previous: -0.2% The US economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than the expected 0.2% decline, indicating a sharper slowdown than anticipated. 2. Unemployment Claims (Week ending June 21) Initial Claims: 236,000 Forecast: 244,000 Previous: 245,000 Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than forecast and near historically low levels, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively subdued despite economic challenges. 3. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (May 2025) Actual: +0.5% Forecast: +0.1% Previous: +0.2% Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose 0.5% month-over-month, beating expectations and signaling some resilience in business investment. 4. Durable Goods Orders m/m (May 2025) Actual: +16.4% Forecast: +8.6% Previous: -6.3% Total durable goods orders surged 16.4%, a strong rebound following a prior decline, indicating a pickup in demand for long-lasting manufactured goods. 5. Final GDP Price Index q/q (Q1 2025) Actual: 3.7% This measure of inflation in the GDP deflator remains elevated, reflecting persistent price pressures in the economy. Summary of Market Implications: The larger-than-expected GDP contraction signals economic weakness, which could increase expectations for accommodative Fed policy. The drop in initial jobless claims supports the view that layoffs are limited, but rising continuing claims suggest some labor market softness ahead. Strong durable goods orders point to underlying business investment strength, providing a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. Elevated inflation as shown by the GDP price index keeps inflation concerns alive. Overall, the data presents a complex picture of a slowing economy with pockets of resilience and ongoing inflationary pressures the interest rate remains 4.24%-4.5% ,the bond market remain weak on fiscal policy challenges and pending rate outlook. the 10 year bond yield is trading around 4.291% -4.25% and edge lower from fundamental outlook. gold on ascending trendline connecting April till June and found support at 3312-3314. buyers during newyork session will build momentum on technical to bridge 3350 supply .
EASYMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
XAUUSD Outlook: Between Fed Doubts and Dollar WeaknessHello traders, Lucas here – let’s break down the latest moves on gold! Following a failed breakdown below the 3,300 support level, gold is now entering a mild corrective phase. In the absence of strong catalysts, price is likely to remain range-bound between 3,300 and 3,340 in the near term. The market is currently shaped by a weakening US dollar and growing uncertainty around the Fed’s interest rate policy. While the USD has dropped to multi-year lows, gold is struggling to gain traction – partly due to easing geopolitical tensions and persistent hawkish signals from Fed officials. Traders are now bracing for a series of key US economic data releases, including Durable Goods Orders, GDP figures, and Initial Jobless Claims – all due before 12:30 GMT today. However, the main event remains Friday’s PCE inflation report, which could be the game-changer for rate expectations moving into H2. From a technical perspective, key levels to watch are 3,300 – 3,306 – 3,340 – 3,347, acting as intraday pivot zones. Should a false breakout occur near 3,347, a pullback toward the 3,320 – 3,307 liquidity zone may follow before bulls attempt to reclaim higher ground. Upside targets in that scenario include 3,364, 3,372 and possibly 3,396. Until a clearer narrative emerges, intraday strategies with reactive price action around these key zones remain the safest play. All the best, Lucas_Reid !
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lucas_Reid
XAUUSD: Breakout or Bull Trap?Gold (XAUUSD) on the daily timeframe is showing signs of a temporary rebound after a sharp drop from the resistance zone at 3,452 USD. Specifically, the price has bounced back from the support area around 3,291 – 3,298 USD – a region aligned with dynamic EMA support and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the previous bullish leg. 1. Key Technical Structure: A clear reversal candlestick pattern has formed at a strong support zone, paving the way for a short-term technical rebound. The 0.5 Fibonacci level at 3,346.5 is currently acting as the nearest resistance – aligning closely with today’s closing price. EMA 20 and EMA 50 are beginning to converge, indicating market indecision on the next directional move. 2. Short-Term Price Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If price holds above the 3,291 – 3,298 support zone and breaks above 3,348, it could retest the 3,400 – 3,452 highs in the coming days. In this case, strengthening EMAs and bullish candle momentum would support this setup. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if the price fails to break through the 3,348 – 3,352 resistance zone and falls below 3,291 again, the market may head toward deeper support levels at 3,240 – or even as low as 3,167 USD. 3. Trading Recommendations: Short-term Buy if there is a confirmed bullish candle closing above 3,348 with strong volume; stop loss below 3,291. Sell on rally around 3,348 – 3,352 resistance if no clear breakout is confirmed. Apply strict risk management, especially in a choppy market environment ahead of key macroeconomic data at the end of the month. Conclusion: XAUUSD is currently in a “trend re-evaluation zone.” Closely monitoring the 3,291 – 3,348 range will be the key to timing efficient entries in the short term.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
1
GOLD recovers from around $3,300 area, short-term targetsOANDA:XAUUSD has recovered slightly and is currently trading around $3,332/oz, supported by a decline in the US dollar and US bond yields. The market is closely watching the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY is near a one-week low, making dollar-priced gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is holding near its lowest in more than a month. As the conflict between Israel and Iran ends, geopolitical risk levels have disappeared, safe-haven funds have flowed back and thus gold is under pressure. From a more macro perspective, gold remains in an uptrend and real yields are expected to fall further amid continued Fed easing. In the short term, if the market reprices rate cut expectations to become hawkish, this could trigger a technical correction in gold. Economic data in the coming months will be particularly important for the gold market. If inflation data remains weak or the labor market deteriorates further, Fed officials could cut rates sooner or more significantly than expected. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to have taken effect on Wednesday, a day after both countries signaled a temporary end to their conflicting air strikes. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in June, reflecting growing concerns among households about job prospects and another sign of a weakening labor market amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Tuesday that higher tariffs could start to push up inflation this summer, a key period when the Fed considers whether to cut interest rates. Traders of federal funds futures are currently pricing in a cumulative 60 basis points of rate cuts through 2025, with the first cut likely to come in September. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered slightly after testing the important support area noted by readers in yesterday's edition, around the raw price point of $3,300. However, the temporary recovery is being limited by the EMA21 moving average, followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which can also be considered as upside targets for the time being. In terms of overall structure, gold is still in an uptrend with the price channel as the main trend. On the other hand, RSI is also hovering around 50, indicating that the market sentiment is still hesitant and does not have enough momentum for a complete trend. Intraday, gold still has a bullish technical outlook, but a sell-off that takes gold below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level would be a bearish signal in the near term. Therefore, long positions should be opened near the $3,300 area, with protective levels behind the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: $3,320 – $3,300 – $3,292 Resistance: $3,350 – $3,371 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3301 - 3303⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3297 →Take Profit 1 3309 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3315
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Breakout from Demand Zone🟡 XAU/USD – 2H Chart Analysis Title: “Compression Breakout From Demand Zone – Room to Revisit Highs” Bias: Bullish (Momentum Confirmation) Timeframe: 2H Chart Reference: MJTrading – June 23, 2025 📍 Context & Structure: Gold has just broken out of a multi-candle compression range after tapping into a well-defined demand zone between $3,333 – $3,346. This area acted as the launchpad for previous rallies and is now showing fresh signs of accumulation. Two EMAs (15 & 60) are attempting a bullish crossover, supporting a shift in momentum. 📈 Trade Setup (Long Bias): Entry: ✅ Market or retest at $3,366 Stop Loss: 🔴 Below the recent demand base at $3,330 Target 1: 🟢 $3,415 (local swing high) Target 2: 🟢 $3,460–$3,480 (upper major supply / range top) R/R Ratio: 🔁 ~2 🔍 Why It Matters: ✅ Price defended key demand zone ✅ Strong engulfing candle with decent volume signals a reversal ⚖️ MJTrading Note: “Gold thrives on uncertainty — and this bounce from a high-confluence demand zone could be the beginning of a push back toward the highs, especially if macro data shifts in favor.” #MJTrading #Gold #XAUUSD #Forex #chart #signal #buy #long
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by MJElahifx
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for June 23Gold technical analysis Daily chart resistance 3450, support 3338 4-hour chart resistance 3395, support 3342 1-hour chart resistance 3373, support 3345 Today's gold trend, due to the geopolitical risk aversion caused by the weekend news, the gold price quickly rose and then fell, opening high and moving low. Today, the gold price fell to a low of 3347 and rebounded. At present, the gold price remains in the range of fluctuations. The trend of short-term gold prices fluctuates and falls. In terms of operation, don't rush to chase high prices. Although conflicts in the Middle East have been frequent recently, it seems that the impact on gold prices has also begun to weaken! The short-term key support position below is near 3340, and the important pressure position is near 3370-75 SELL:3372near SELL:3400near BUY:3350near
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ActuaryJ
Urgent Gold Market AnalysisUrgent Gold Market Analysis: Trading Strategies After Iran's Parliament Approves Closing the Strait of Hormuz I. Geopolitics: Market Reactions from "Threat" to "Action Countdown" Iran's parliament has formally approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, though final decision-making rests with the Supreme National Security Council. This news is like lighting a fuse on a powder keg—while an actual blockade hasn’t occurred, the market has started pricing in "probability risks". Historical data shows the Strait of Hormuz handles 21% of global oil consumption (about 21 million barrels per day). If blocked, oil prices could surge 10%-15% within 48 hours, directly fueling global inflation expectations. The current market contradiction lies in: - **Tug-of-war between short-term panic and long-term doubt**: Hardline Iranian advisors have publicly called for "immediately closing the strait and striking U.S. warships", but the Supreme National Security Council is still weighing the costs of "mutual destruction"—80% of Iran’s own oil exports depend on the strait. This "brinkmanship" has trapped gold in a "neither rising nor falling" range, similar to knowing a storm is coming but unsure when to open an umbrella. - **Signal game of military deployments**: The U.S. aircraft carrier Ford has arrived in the Arabian Sea, forming a three-carrier strike group with two others, while Iran has deployed missile boat clusters and electronic warfare units along the strait. This "tit-for-tat" posture makes gold’s safe-haven buying exhibit "event-driven" characteristics—each U.S. warship movement or Iranian missile drill triggers $5-$10 fluctuations in gold prices. The market now stands at the center of a teeter-totter: on the left is the "energy bomb" of the Strait of Hormuz, and on the right is the "recession ghost" of the U.S. economy. $3,350 is the balance point, and the meeting minutes of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council will be the key weight determining which way the teeter-totter tilts. Operationally, it is recommended to refresh vessel tracking data and U.S. military movements every 4 hours to avoid being blindsided by market surprises amid information lags. Analysis of gold trend next week, hope it helps you XAUUSD buy@3370~3380 SL:3350 TP：3390~3400
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by David_Wilson1
GOLD PULLS BACK TO BUY ZONE!Hey Traders so looking at Gold as we can see it has now pulled back to the trendline and is testing support at $3300 level. So if bullish now is the time to buy it with a stop loss under support at 3237 or even maybe even 3200. Also Seasonally Gold normally bottoms in the Summer around July or August. Imo a wide stop is need to let the market breathe we don't want to be stopped out due to normal daily movement. If bearish however be very careful this seems to me like strong bull market. I wouldn't think about shorting unless breaks below trendline and below 3200. Always use Risk Management! (Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Good Luck & Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTheIndex
Gold prices rose as dollar data was not good 📌 Gold information: Gold prices plunged on Tuesday as a ceasefire was declared in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, market risk appetite rebounded, and demand for safe-haven assets declined. The ceasefire news pushed global stocks higher, while oil prices fell to a two-week low as concerns about supply disruptions eased. The plunge in crude oil prices also further suppressed gold's inflation hedging appeal. As an interest-free asset, gold prices are under pressure against the backdrop of waning risk aversion, but there is still buying support at low levels. Investors are currently focusing on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's appearance at a House Financial Services Committee hearing. Powell has been cautious on whether to cut interest rates in the near future. 📊Comment Analysis The current market selling sentiment has increased significantly, and for gold, falling seems to be the only way to go. Today, whether you look at rebound short or low long, basically you will not have a chance, that is, falling, it seems that the market has lost hope in gold, and the current gold has fallen to 3295, and the break of 3300 declares that gold has further room to fall. From the trend point of view, it is likely to fall now! The further strong support on the current trend line is around 3274, and it is not ruled out that it will fall directly to the current position. At present, the Federal Reserve is still speaking, and whether it will cause drastic fluctuations in gold in the future is still unpredictable, but from today's trend, shorting is already the best solution at present, and the upper resistance can first look at 3330! 💰Strategy Package Gold: Rebound 3325-3335 short, stop loss 3345, target 3290-3300! ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the lot size that matches your funds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1
Gold on the Edge: Will US Debt Fears Spark a Breakout?XAUUSD – Gold on the Edge: Will US Debt Fears Spark a Breakout? After weeks of muted movement, gold is coiling within a bearish channel — but a fresh warning from Goldman Sachs may be the trigger that changes everything. With concerns mounting over America’s fiscal future, gold could be preparing for a decisive shift. 🌐 Macro View – Goldman Sachs Sounds the Alarm 🔺 Goldman Sachs recently issued a critical warning: US national debt is expected to exceed WWII levels, with interest payments topping $1 trillion by 2025, outpacing spending on defense and healthcare. If urgent fiscal reforms aren’t implemented, the US could face a tightening cycle that slows GDP growth without reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio. The root causes? Excessive spending, rising interest rates, and deep political gridlock. 📌 For global investors, this type of uncertainty is often bullish for gold — especially as a hedge against both inflation and US dollar instability. 📉 Technical Outlook (Updated – M30 to H1) Gold is still trading inside a well-defined descending channel, with sellers firmly in control. Price is currently hovering around the pivot zone at 3,338.42, with a possible short-term bounce toward 3,368.04, the upper edge of the channel. EMA ribbons (13–200) are sharply aligned to the downside, signaling strong bearish momentum. If the price fails to break above 3,368, the next key support zones lie at 3,325.78, and potentially 3,309.25, where unfilled fair value gaps (FVG) await. ✅ Trade Plan 🟢 BUY ZONE: 3310 – 3308 Stop-Loss: 3303 Targets: 3314 → 3318 → 3322 → 3326 → 3330 → 3340 → 3350 → 3360 → 🟢 BUY SCALP: 3325 – 3323 Stop-Loss: 3318 Targets: 3330 → 3334 → 3338 → 3342 → 3346 → 3350 → 3360 → 3370 → 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3418 – 3420 Stop-Loss: 3424 Targets: 3414 → 3410 → 3405 → 3400 → 3396 → 3390 → 3385 → 3380 🔻 SELL SCALP: 3396 – 3398 Stop-Loss: 3403 Targets: 3392 → 3388 → 3384 → 3380 → 3375 → 3370 💬 Closing Thoughts – A Volatile End to the Week? With US markets returning from a bank holiday and macro pressure rising, volatility could spike to close the week. ✅ Stick to disciplined SL/TP levels. Avoid premature entries and let price confirm direction. Gold remains technically bearish — but the global debt narrative could turn this market on its head. Prepare. Observe. Strike only when the structure aligns.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading