As risk aversion wavers, will gold rise or fall?
💡Message Strategy
After falling for two consecutive days, gold (XAU/USD) rebounded slightly in the Asian session on Wednesday, stabilizing above $3,320, attracting some bargain-hunting buyers. The market has paid close attention to the tariff policy that US President Trump continues to increase, and the rising risk aversion has become the core factor supporting gold prices.
The US CPI data for June showed that overall prices rose by 0.3% month-on-month, the largest increase in five months, and the core CPI rose to 2.9% year-on-year, both higher than expected. This has caused the market to worry that tariffs are gradually pushing up inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to extend the high interest rate policy cycle.
📊Technical aspects
The current trend of gold is constrained by both fundamentals and technical factors.
On the one hand, Trump's tariff policy has pushed up inflation expectations, triggering risk aversion and rethinking of the Fed's policy path, providing support for gold;
On the other hand, the Fed's tone of "maintaining high interest rates for longer" has limited the room for gold prices to rebound.
From the 4-hour chart, gold prices found support near the 100-period SMA (about $3,320) on Tuesday, stopping the decline from the three-week high. In the short term, if it can stand above the 3340-3345 resistance band, it may test the 3365-3370 area again, and the further target is the 3400-dollar round mark.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:3320-3330,SL:3305,Target: 3365-3370
GOLD trade ideas
Gold is Moving Sideways – A Potential Triangle Formation?Gold is currently trading in a sideways pattern, potentially forming a triangle consolidation. This type of setup often precedes a strong breakout. At the moment, price action is showing hesitation near key resistance. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakout above the upper boundary of the triangle to validate a bullish continuation.
Patience is key—wait for the breakout before taking action.
XAUUSD still on retest Gold is currently holding rising channel. We just secured sell opportunity at 3329 and TP HIT at 3311 .
What's possible scanarios we have?
▪️I'm looking for Buying trade As I mentioned is my previous commentary 3310-3312 is the buying area .if H4 remains above then keep buy set targets at 3335 then 3345.
▪️ Secondly 3290 is the perfect area of buying if its still fall .
-> Moral of Day buy the Dips
Additional TIP:
Below 3310 -3308 I will Activate my resell and hold till 3300 then 3290
#XAUUSD
GOLD BUY M15 Gold (XAU/USD) 15-Min Chart Analysis – July 15, 2025
The price is currently trading around 3,352, having recently shown a Change of Character (CHoCH) indicating a potential bullish reversal. After a drop from the recent highs, price is now approaching a highlighted demand zone (purple box) between approximately 3,342 – 3,349, which could act as a strong support area.
Trade Setup:
Buy Zone: Inside the purple demand zone (approx. 3,342 – 3,349)
Stop Loss (SL): 3,342
Target (TP): 3,365
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels:
3,355
3,360
3,365 (Target)
3,370 (Potential extension)
Support Levels:
3,349
3,342 (Stop Loss)
3,341 (Strong Low zone)
Expectation:
If price reacts positively from the demand zone and holds above the support, we can expect a bullish move towards the target of 3,365, breaking through intermediate resistance levels.
Daily gold analysisDaily gold analysis
Sell trade with target and stop loss as shown in the chart
The trend is down and we may see more drop in the coming period in the medium term
All the best, I hope for your participation in the analysis, and for any inquiries, please send in the comments.
He gave a signal from the strongest areas of entry, special recommendations, with a success rate of 95%, for any inquiry or request for analysis, contact me
GOLD Intraday Chart Update For 15 July 2025Hello Traders,
Welcome to the US CPI Day, as you can see that market is in tight range for now and all eyes on the breakout for now
Only clear breakout of 3380 we will consider market will be bullish towards 3400 & 3425
If markets sustains below 3335 it will move towards 3305 or even 3285
All eyes on US CPI
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
Big Week for Markets: U.S. CPI Tomorrow – What It Means for GoldThis week is packed with news, but the main focus is the U.S. CPI report dropping tomorrow.
🗓 Key Event: U.S. CPI Report
📍 July 15, 2025 | 12:30 p.m. UTC
The CPI report measures inflation and heavily influences the Fed’s rate decisions. Last month’s CPI came in at 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected, following 2.3% vs. 2.4% in April. While it seems inflation is rising, the bigger picture shows stable annual inflation in the 2.3%–3.0% range, keeping things under control—likely the reason Trump is pressuring Powell to cut rates.
Market expects June CPI to be 2.7%.
🤔 Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ CPI > 2.7%: Bullish for DXY 📈. The stronger the print, the bigger the spike, but I see this scenario as less probable.
2️⃣ CPI < 2.7%: Bearish for DXY 📉. We may see a USD dump, though likely shallow since CPI could still be higher than previous months.
✨ What About Gold?
I don’t expect a major reaction in gold:
✅ Higher CPI? Gold often benefits as an inflation hedge.
✅ Lower CPI? Also supportive for gold as it weighs on the USD.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
Gold has been trading within a triangle since April 22, forming lower highs and higher lows. We may currently be in Wave D (Elliott Wave), aiming toward the triangle’s upper boundary slightly above $3,400 resistance. After that, Wave E may develop – but that’s a story for another post.
GOLD: Long Signal Explained
GOLD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy GOLD
Entry Level - 3352.0
Sl - 3346.8
Tp - 3362.4
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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7/14: Sell High, Buy Low Within the 3400–3343 Range for GoldGood morning, everyone!
At the end of last week, renewed trade tariff concerns reignited risk-off sentiment, prompting a strong rally in gold after multiple tests of the 3321 support level. The breakout was largely driven by fundamental news momentum.
On the daily (1D) chart, the price has fully reclaimed the MA60 and broken above the MA20, signaling an emerging bullish trend. The key focus for this week includes:
Monitoring whether MA20 holds as support on any pullbacks
Watching the 3400 resistance zone for signs of exhaustion or continuation
From a 30-minute technical perspective, gold is currently trading within a short-term resistance band of 3372–3378, with a stronger resistance zone between 3387–3392. Key support levels are:
Primary support: around 3358
Secondary support: 3343–3332 zone
Given the recent increase in volatility due to geopolitical and macroeconomic headlines, flexible intraday trading is recommended within the 3378–3343 range, while broader trades can be framed around the 3400–3325 zone, still favoring a sell-high, buy-low approach.
Lastly, as we move into the mid-year period, I may have more personal commitments, and strategy updates could be less frequent. I appreciate your understanding, and as always, feel free to leave a message if you have any questions or need trading guidance—I’ll respond as soon as I can.
Gold Price Update: Key Breakout Level in Sight – Watch $3,434! Technical Analysis – XAU/USD
Current Price: $3,371
Gold is trading inside a rising wedge pattern with strong resistance at $3,434.
A daily candle close above $3,434 could trigger a breakout toward:
🎯 Target 1: $3,540
🎯 Target 2: $3,756
If rejected at resistance, price may drop to:
⚠️ Support 1: $3,325
⚠️ Support 2: $3,001 (major weekly support)
🌍 Fundamental Outlook
CPI Data Impact:
Higher CPI → Gold bearish (rate hikes expected)
Lower CPI → Gold bullish (rate cuts or pause likely)
Federal Reserve Policy:
Hawkish = Negative for gold
Dovish = Positive for gold
Other Drivers:
USD Strength
Geopolitical risks
Central bank gold buying
Gold begins bullish recoveryIon Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Gold posted a slight gain during Monday's Asian session, driven by renewed safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and several key economies, as well as rising geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Russia and Ukraine.
The initial uptick in gold was supported by the announcement of 30% tariffs by Donald Trump on Mexico and the European Union, in addition to harsher levies on Japan, South Korea, and Brazil. The prospect of a renewed wave of protectionism has raised concerns over global economic stability, boosting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Added to this is geopolitical tension following reports that Trump is planning to send offensive weapons to Ukraine, potentially escalating the conflict with Russia. These factors have reinforced risk-off sentiment in the markets.
However, the strength of the US dollar (DXY +0.1%) and anticipation ahead of the US CPI data, due Tuesday, are capping gold’s upside. Higher-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which would weigh on precious metals.
After reaching an intraday high of $3,361.42 per ounce, the Asian market closed lower, leaving gold at $3,356.66 per ounce, a level at which it has since consolidated ahead of the European open. This behavior reflects a technical pause in the initial bullish momentum, with the current point of control aligning with that same price zone, suggesting a temporary neutralization of buying pressure. The RSI at 54% confirms a lack of strength, while the MACD indicates a potential upward directional shift with a signal line crossover and a modestly green histogram to start the week. Moving average crossovers show the 50 and 100 SMAs supporting the bullish push that began last Wednesday. Gold’s next decisive move may depend on upcoming US inflation data and developments in geopolitical tensions.
Silver, meanwhile, stood out with a sharp 1.4% surge to $39.493 per ounce, its highest level since 2011, while platinum and copper delivered mixed performances.
This week, gold prices could be driven by the confirmation of elevated US inflation data, which would strengthen the metal's role as a hedge against purchasing power loss, especially if doubts persist regarding the Fed’s policy stance. Added to this are rising geopolitical tensions due to Trump’s potential delivery of offensive weapons to Ukraine, further protectionist measures that could worsen the global trade war, and increased risk aversion should equity markets react negatively. In this context, gold is positioned as one of the main beneficiaries amid growing economic and political uncertainty.
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check the trendIt is expected that the upward trend will pass the resistance range and with the stabilization above this range, we will see the continuation of the upward trend.
If the price crosses the support trend line, the continuation of the correction will be formed. And with the failure of the support range, the beginning of the downtrend of the scenario will be likely.
XAUUSD Analysis : Bullish Move Toward Key Resistance + Target🟩 Overview:
Gold is currently showing a clear bullish breakout on the 2-hour timeframe. The market structure has shifted from a downtrend into a bullish phase, with price now approaching a critical Reversal Zone. Let’s break down the key levels, structure shifts, and potential trade opportunities.
🔍 1. Structure Shift – Trendline Break & BOS Signals:
The price previously followed a Blue Ray Descending Trendline, which acted as dynamic resistance and guided the bearish trend.
As highlighted, “Blue Ray Always Continue Trend” – but in this case, we’ve seen a clean Break of Structure (BOS) that invalidated the bearish setup.
A Minor BOS occurred first, which hinted at weakening selling pressure.
Later, a Major BOS confirmed the bullish transition as the price broke above a key resistance level with strong momentum.
This transition was supported by consistent higher lows and a breakout above the descending resistance trendline — a classic reversal signal.
🟩 2. Demand Zone Reaction – Major Support Held Firm:
The Major Support Zone between $3,280 – $3,300 provided a strong base for buyers.
Multiple wick rejections and bullish engulfing patterns near this zone indicated aggressive buyer interest.
This support has now become the foundation for the recent bullish rally.
🎯 3. Next Target & Reversal Zone:
The current price is hovering around $3,358, showing strong bullish momentum.
The next major resistance area is marked between $3,380 – $3,400, identified as the Next Target + Reversal Zone.
This zone is critical — it aligns with a historical supply area and the previous market swing highs.
Traders should be cautious here, as price may react sharply. Reversal patterns (like bearish engulfing, pin bars, or double tops) could signal a potential retracement.
⚠️ 4. Trade Plan:
🟢 Bullish Bias (Short-Term):
If you entered from the support or trendline breakout, continue to hold long positions until price nears the reversal zone.
Trail stop-loss under the most recent higher low to secure profits.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Near-Term Reversal Play):
Watch for bearish rejection patterns in the $3,380 – $3,400 zone.
If confirmation appears, potential short setups could offer a retracement back to $3,330 – $3,320.
📌 Key Levels Summary:
Major Support Zone: $3,280 – $3,300 ✅
Next Target + Reversal Zone: $3,380 – $3,400 ⚠️
Current Price: $3,358
Major BOS Level: Confirmed
Trendline: Broken with strong bullish pressure
🧠 Final Thoughts:
Gold has officially shifted gears. The bullish breakout is in motion, and the trendline break + BOS combo supports further upside — at least until the reversal zone is tested. However, this is also where the market could exhaust, making it crucial to monitor price action closely.
Stay patient, wait for confirmation, and let the levels guide your next move.
The gold bull-bear game intensifiesThe gold bull-bear game intensifies: a breakthrough opportunity is hidden in the short-term shock
The gold market experienced violent fluctuations this week, and the core contradiction came from contradictory employment signals:
ADP cooling: The number of private sector jobs in the United States unexpectedly decreased in June, which once strengthened the expectation of a rate cut in September and pushed the gold price up
Non-farm counterattack: The subsequent non-farm employment announced exceeded expectations (206,000), which quickly extinguished the enthusiasm for rate cuts and gold prices gave up gains
Central bank support: Global central banks continue to buy gold (China increased its gold reserves in June), building a safety cushion for long-term prices
The essence of the "data fight" reflects that the resilience of the US economy remains, but cracks have appeared. The Federal Reserve dares neither cut interest rates too early (inflation risk) nor over-tighten (loosening of the employment market). This swing state will prolong the volatility cycle of gold, but every sharp drop is an opportunity for central banks and long-term investors to enter the market.
Technical aspect: Breakthrough signal of the four-hour chart
Current market characteristics:
Key position: 3344-3346 area has become the watershed between long and short positions. After three unsuccessful tests, the probability of this breakthrough has increased
Morphological structure: Breakthrough of the downward trend line of the four-hour chart + MACD golden cross, long arrangement of hourly moving average
Volume coordination: After yesterday's retracement to 3330 support, the volume rebounded, showing strong low-level support
Operation strategy:
Bull defense line: 3330-3325 (if broken, it will turn into shock)
Upward target:
▶ The first target is 3360 (previous high psychological position)
▶ The second target is 3380 (Fibonacci extension position)
▶ Ultimate target 3400 (option barrier)
Specific plan:
Conservatives:
Light long position at 3333-3335 (stop loss 3323)
After breaking through 3347, add more positions (stop loss 3335)
Radicals:
Batch layout above the current price of 3340, with 3325 as the ultimate defense
Risk warning:
⚠️ Beware of the volatility caused by Powell's speech on Friday night
⚠️ If 3320 is lost, beware of a deep correction to the 3300 mark
Currently, gold is in the "accumulation breakthrough" stage, with a bullish technical side but requiring fundamentals to cooperate. It is recommended to use the "small stop loss breakthrough" strategy, and it is better to miss it than to go against the trend. If it can stand firm at 3350 this week, it will no longer be a fantasy to look at 3400 in the third quarter.
GOLD SELL M15 XAU/USD (Gold) 15-Min Chart Analysis – July 10, 2025
The chart shows that price is currently trading around 3323.98, approaching a key supply zone marked in purple. This area is expected to act as resistance, where price may reverse.
Multiple Break of Structure (BOS) levels have been marked, confirming bullish momentum earlier. However, the chart now suggests a potential bearish reversal from the supply zone.
Trade Idea:
Entry Zone: Near the top of the purple resistance area (~3324)
Stop Loss (SL): 3332
Target: 3309 zone (highlighted in blue), which aligns with the demand zone and previous structure
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: 3324–3332
Support Zones:
First Support: 3319.19
Second Support: 3314.18
Final Target Zone: 3309.84 – 3309.61
The expected move is a sell from the supply zone down to the 3309 target. Price is projected to form lower highs and lower lows as shown by the blue arrow path.
The latest gold trend analysis and strategic suggestionsYesterday, the price of gold showed a range of fluctuations. The long and short sides fought fiercely but failed to break through the existing range. The overall trend direction is still unclear. From a fundamental point of view, the market is still dominated by risk aversion, which makes it difficult for the price of gold to form a clear trend reversal. However, it should be noted that the main funds may take extreme suppression measures in the future to force the price of gold to fall. From the 4-hour chart, gold has been under pressure near the upper track 3377 and continued to fall. Yesterday, it broke through the middle track support and touched the lower track. The current price is temporarily supported near the lower track, but the overall trend still shows a wide range of fluctuations and has not formed an obvious trend. The short-term strength of the US dollar suppresses the upward movement of gold, but the key support and resistance levels have not been effectively broken; in terms of intraday short-term operation suggestions, the current callback near 3320-3325 can try to do ultra-short-term longs. It is recommended to stop profit and exit in the 3340-3345 range. It can be combined with the K-line pattern to short-sell, and the target is the lower track area. If the downward momentum is strong, it may fall below yesterday’s low to form a continuous decline.
Operation suggestions:
1. Go long when gold falls back to around 3320-3325, stop loss at 3312, target at 3340-3345.