GOLD SETUP UPDATE - CLEAN BREAKOUT & RETEST PLANGold just broke out of a falling wedge pattern with a clean 5-wave completion.
Now it's pulling back — we prepare for two potential scenarios:
🔹 Scenario A:
If price retests the lower trendline (around 3,315–3,320) and gives a strong rejection, we look to buy targeting:
→ 3,345
→ 3,359
🔹 Scenario B:
If it skips the retest and continues to rally — we follow the breakout momentum.
✅ EMA ribbons are still holding bullish.
✅ MACD histogram flipped green — showing buyer pressure coming in.
🚫 Invalid if price breaks below 3,307 or 3,296.
Time to cut and reassess if that happens.
💡 Reminder: Wait for confirmation. Don’t FOMO.
Plan your trade — ride the structure, not the hype.
#GoldAnalysis #TechnicalSetup #ForexTrading #PriceAction #FaizIsmail
GOLD trade ideas
XAU/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Fresh Tariff Fears🟡 TVC:GOLD Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Fresh Tariff Fears
OANDA:XAUUSD Spot gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from intraday lows near $3,296, now trading around $3,330 as fears over renewed U.S. tariffs fuel safe-haven demand. President Trump has begun issuing formal letters announcing fresh import tariffs—25% on South Korea, additional measures on Japan, and a 10% universal tariff on countries aligning with BRICS. With the 90-day tariff pause expiring August 1 and no trade progress in sight, geopolitical and economic uncertainty continue to support gold’s floor.
📉 Technical Structure
XAU/USD remains within a descending channel on the 1H chart, with price currently approaching the $3,338–$3,340 Resistance Zone 1. A clean breakout above the upper channel boundary could trigger a move toward the broader $3,364 Resistance Zone 2. Conversely, failure to break above Resistance Zone 1 would keep the bearish channel intact, with downside targets toward the $3,302–$3,305 support zone.
📌 Key Technical Zones
Resistance Zone 1: $3,338–$3,340
Resistance Zone 2: $3,364
Support Zone: $3,302–$3,305
Channel Structure: Bearish unless broken to the upside
📘 Strategy Summary
XAU/USD is showing signs of short-term recovery, but remains technically capped unless it breaks through $3,340 resistance. As long as the descending channel holds, rallies may be sold into. A confirmed break above $3,340 could shift bias toward $3,364, while rejection may reopen the path to $3,305 and potentially lower.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy | July 7✅Gold opened weakly during the Asian session today, with prices dropping nearly $40 in early trading—likely due to technical selling pressure from above. The rebound once again failed to break the key 3345 resistance level, which serves as the neckline of the previous “M-top” pattern formed at the 3365 high. This level has become a clear resistance zone. If gold continues to struggle below this line, the short-term trend remains biased toward consolidation with a bearish tone.
✅ 4-Hour Chart Structure:
Since retreating from the 3365 high, multiple rebound attempts have been capped around the 3345 area. Last Friday, a second rally failed at the mid-Bollinger Band and closed lower, forming a local double-top pattern. This morning’s rebound to 3342 was again rejected, confirming continued downward pressure in this area.
✅ 1-Hour Chart Structure:
After the release of last week's non-farm payrolls data, gold formed a short-term double top. After breaking the neckline, the rebound lacked momentum, reaffirming that sellers dominate near resistance. In the short term, bearish pressure remains in control.
✅ Key Technical Levels:
🔴Short-term Resistance: 3325–3330
🔴Major Resistance Zone: 3345 (M-top neckline)
🔴Strong Resistance: 3365 (M-top peak)
🟢Short-term Support: 3305
🟢Critical Support: 3295
🟢A break below 3295 could open further downside toward 3275 or even 3246
✅Intraday Trading Strategy:
🔻 Short Position Strategy:
Consider layering into short positions around the 3325–3330 area. Stop-loss: 8–10 $
Targets: 3310–3300; if 3300 breaks, watch for a move toward 3295
🔺 Long Position Strategy:
If price pulls back and stabilizes around 3295–3298, consider layering into long positions. Stop-loss: 8–10 $
Targets: 3305–3315; if 3315 breaks, look for a move toward 3325
✅Strategy Summary & Outlook:
Gold remains in a broad high-level consolidation phase, with frequent short-term shifts between bullish and bearish sentiment. We recommend a range-trading approach—selling on rallies and buying on dips—while closely monitoring whether the 3345–3350 resistance zone is breached. This key area will likely determine the directional breakout this week.
✅Maintain disciplined risk management, avoid chasing moves, and stay alert to intraday momentum shifts.
Gold rebounded from the bottom. Is the decline over?Gold prices faced selling pressure in today's Asian market. The price fell from 3343 to around 3320 in the early Asian session. The European price continued to fall, reaching a low of around 3296, and then rebounded upward. The current price is fluctuating around 3320.
Most investors will focus on the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to be released on Wednesday to get guidance on the trend.
From the hourly chart, the upper pressure position is constantly being corrected. The current average pressure value is around 3330-3335. At the same time, this position is also the watershed between long and short positions in the previous dense area. The price may rebound to this position again. The lower support level is in the range of 3300-3290.
Quaid believes that the current market is still showing a downward trend, and the price may fall back below 3300 again.
Operation strategy:
Short around 3330, stop loss 3340, profit range 3310-3300, sustainable ownership after breakthrough.
Gold short-term shock operation ideas
💡Message Strategy
Current Price and Context
Gold is trading around $3,310 and continues to retreat as traders remain cautious amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. While some safe-haven demand remains, a stronger dollar and weakening confidence among safe-haven buyers put gold under selling pressure. Concerns about global trade policy and tightening monetary policy continue to weigh on gold's short-term outlook.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Trade tensions and global uncertainty have again sparked cautious sentiment, which has provided limited support for gold, but the absence of major conflicts has left it lacking direction.
U.S. Economic Data: Strong labor market data and upcoming inflation data supported the dollar, curbing gold's upward momentum.
FOMC Outcomes: The Fed remains cautious and does not signal an immediate rate cut; high yields reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.
Trade Policy: While tariffs have been a concern, flows between risk and safe-haven assets have been mixed as there has been no new escalation.
Monetary policy: Rising global bond yields and the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see attitude limit gold's gains in the short term.
📊Technical aspects
From the 4-hour analysis, the support line of 3290-3300 is concerned below, the short-term resistance above is concerned about 3315, and the suppression line of 3345-50 is focused on. The overall main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycle participation remains unchanged. In the middle position, watch more and do less, and follow orders cautiously, and maintain the main tone of participation in the trend. Wait patiently for key points to participate. Pay attention to the specific operation strategy in time.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:3290-3300,SL:3275,Target: 3330-3340
Short Position:3320-3330,SL:3305,Target: 3280-3290
New tariffs are coming. How should gold respond?📰 News information:
1. 90-day tariffs are about to expire
2. New unilateral tariffs
3. Geopolitical situation
📈 Technical Analysis:
On July 4th local time, there were constant turmoil in American politics and trade. Trump declared that the US government would send letters to trading partners that day to set new unilateral tariff rates, which would most likely take effect on August 1. He also revealed that the new tariff rates could soar to 70%. At the same time, Japan-US trade negotiations encountered obstacles, India planned to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States, and the China-EU tariff war had also begun. At present, the news seems to be more favorable to the bulls.
From a technical point of view, gold closed higher last week, showing that there is still upward momentum this week. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the pressure in the 3365 and 3375 - 3380 areas, and the 3400 mark is a key position where bulls and bears are fighting fiercely. Before breaking through this position, we must be alert to the risk of falling back after a high rise. Pay attention to the support of 3310-3305 and 3295-3285 below. If effective support is obtained, we can consider going long. If it breaks, it may go to 3270-3260. Gold jumped to 3342 at the opening of the Asian session and then fell back. 3345 is the key in the short term. The news may affect its subsequent trend. In the short term, pay attention to the suppression of 3345 on the upper side, and further to the strong resistance area of 3365-3380. If there is resistance and pressure, you can short at a high level. The impact of recent news is erratic, so enter the market with caution and be sure to set TP and SL strictly.
🎯 Trading Points:
SELL 3330-3345
TP 3320-3310-3295
BUY 3310-3305
TP 3320-3330-3345
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
XAUUSD – Bearish Breakout Retest (TCB Strategy)🔍 Technical Overview:
Trend: Price has clearly broken below the rising channel.
Retest Zone: The grey box shows a bearish retest zone at 3,315–3,310, which price tapped before rejecting.
Current Support: Price is reacting at the 3,300 horizontal level (former demand zone).
Target Area: The blue box points to a possible TP zone around 3,263, aligned with previous structure support.
🔻 XAUUSD – Bearish Breakout Retest (TCB Strategy)
📅 Date: July 7, 2025
🕐 Timeframe: 1H
✅ Checklist Score: 95%
🔍 TCB Setup Breakdown:
Price broke below a rising channel and pulled back into a clean supply zone (3,310–3,315). NY session provided a strong rejection, aligning with structure shift and confirming short bias.
🎯 Entry: 3,310.00
🛑 Stop Loss: 3,316.50
🎯 Target: 3,263.47
📈 R-Multiple: Targeting ~+2.5R
🧠 Strategy: Trend → Countertrend → Breakout
📛 #TCBFlow #XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #BreakoutRetest #TradingViewIdeas #GoldTrading #PriceAction #MarketStructure #NYSession #ForexStrategy #RiskReward #TrendlineBreak #SupplyDemand
Analysis of the latest gold trend next week:
Analysis of gold news: Friday (July 4) coincided with the US Independence Day holiday, and gold prices were in a narrow range of fluctuations. Strong employment data not only pushed up the US dollar and US bond yields, but also significantly weakened the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's early rate cuts, which greatly reduced the attractiveness of gold. At the same time, the US Congress passed the Trump administration's massive tax cut and spending bill, further injecting complex variables into the economy. There will be no key data to watch today. Due to the US Independence Day, all markets will close early, which will limit the fluctuation range of gold prices.
Key technical signals:
Daily level:
Range fluctuations: Gold prices repeatedly tested in the 3320-3360 range, the Bollinger band narrowed, and the MACD kinetic energy column shrank, indicating that the market was in a wait-and-see mood.
Key support/resistance:
Support: 3320 (5-day moving average), 3300 (psychological barrier + Bollinger lower track).
Resistance: 3350-3360 (non-agricultural starting point + daily middle track).
4-hour level:
Short-term bottoming signs: After the non-agricultural data, the gold price fell to 3322 and then rebounded, forming a double bottom prototype, but it needs to break through 3350 to confirm the reversal.
RSI is neutral (around 50) and may maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.
2. Next week's market deduction
1. Baseline scenario (oscillation and consolidation, 60% probability)
Trend: The gold price fluctuates in the 3320-3360 range, waiting for CPI data to guide the direction.
Operation strategy:
Short-term high-sell and low-buy:
Long order: Long at around 3320-3325, stop loss 3305, target 3350.
Short order: Short at 3350-3360 under pressure, stop loss 3370, target 3320.
2. Bullish breakthrough scenario (30% probability, CPI data required)
Trigger conditions: CPI is lower than expected (such as below 3.2%), the market re-bets on interest rate cuts, and the US dollar weakens.
Trend: After breaking through 3360, it may test 3380 (200-day moving average) or even 3400.
Operation strategy:
Break through and chase long: Follow up after stabilizing 3360, target 3380-3400.
3. Bearish breakout scenario (10% probability, need continued strength of the US dollar)
Trigger conditions: CPI is stronger than expected (such as more than 3.5%), and the Fed's hawkish remarks suppress expectations of rate cuts.
Trend: After breaking below 3300, it may test 3260 (June low).
Operation strategy:
Break through and follow short: After breaking below 3300, chase short, target 3260.
III. Trading strategy and risk management
Short-term trading (suitable for intraday positions)
Shock strategy: Buy high and sell low in the range of 3320-3360, with strict stop loss (10$-15$).
Breakout strategy: Wait for CPI data and follow the trend. If it breaks through 3360, chase longs or if it falls below 3300, follow shorts.
Mid-term layout (pay attention to the trend after CPI)
If CPI is positive: set up long orders at 3330-3340, with a target of 3400.
If CPI is negative: set up short orders at 3350-3360, with a target of 3260.
Risk warning
Liquidity risk: Speech by Fed officials (such as Powell) may trigger short-term sharp fluctuations.
Geopolitical risk: Sudden conflicts or banking crises may trigger safe-haven buying, breaking the technical logic.
4. Summary and key points
Core range: 3320-3360 (maintain the idea of oscillation before breaking through).
Long-short watershed:
Breaking through 3360 → opening up space to 3400.
Breaking through 3300 → opening a downward trend to 3260.
XAUUSDHello traders,
The Gold trade I shared last week has just hit TP. Based on current market conditions, I believe gold may continue its downward movement for a while. Therefore, I’m still holding a bearish bias and have just activated a new sell trade, which I’d like to share with you as well.
🔍 Trade Details
✔️ Timeframe: 1-Hour (H1)
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:3
✔️ Trade Direction: Sell
✔️ Entry Price: 3310.11
✔️ Take Profit: 3266.76
✔️ Stop Loss: 3324.51
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’ve taken based on my personal trading system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
📌 Interested in a systematic, data-driven trading approach?
💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay updated on future trade setups and advanced market insights.
Gold Trading Strategy for next Monday✅From the current short-term structure, gold is exhibiting a typical bearish continuation pattern, indicating that the primary trend remains downward. If gold fails to effectively break above the key resistance level at 3350 next week, it suggests that the prevailing downtrend is likely to continue. The probability of a short-term rebound being capped in this area is relatively high.
✅On the downside, attention should first be given to the 3310 level, which serves as a critical short-term support. A break below this level could open the door for a further decline toward the 3280–3250 zone, where traders should watch for potential bottoming signals or signs of strong support.
✅From the 1-hour chart perspective, short-term moving averages are beginning to turn lower, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Technically, a double top formation has developed, and the price has broken below the neckline, showing a lack of rebound strength. Despite a minor rebound to around 3345 yesterday, the price once again faced resistance and moved lower, reflecting a weak consolidation phase.
✅As such, the 3345–3350 area will be a critical short-term resistance next week. If the market opens higher due to bullish news over the weekend and breaks above this region, gold could regain upward momentum. Conversely, if the price remains suppressed under 3345–3350 and only shows weak rebounds, short-selling opportunities may arise near this zone.
✅Short-Term Trading Strategy:
Main strategy: Sell on rallies, buy on dips
🔴 Resistance level: 3345–3350
🟢Support level: 3310–3315
🔰If 3310 is broken, the next support area is 3280–3250.
✅Overall, unless gold breaks above key resistance, the outlook remains moderately bearish with a consolidation bias. Traders are advised to remain flexible and adjust their strategies in response to market news and developments.
✅If your recent trading results haven’t been ideal, feel free to reach out. I’d be happy to help you avoid common pitfalls and improve your performance. I will provide real-time strategy updates during market hours based on price action — stay tuned.
XAU/USD: Today's Strategy AnalysisVerification of Support Level Effectiveness
- $3306: As the 0.5 retracement level of the 3247-3365 band Fibonacci, it rebounded slightly after being first touched today. It is necessary to monitor whether a bullish candlestick stabilization signal forms at this level. If broken, the next target is $3290.
- $3290: Overlapping with the lower Bollinger Band support of the 4-hour chart, if a pullback signal with shrinking trading volume appears here, it can be regarded as a short-term long opportunity.
Suppression Effect of Resistance Level
- $3320-$3325: The suppression zone of the 5-day moving average at the 1-hour level, which is also near the early session rebound high. If the price is resisted and closes bearish when rebounding to this range, it confirms a short entry opportunity.
-
Operation Tips
Strictly set stop-loss orders to avoid capital drawdown caused by false breakouts of support/resistance levels.
XAUUSD
buy@3285-3295
tp:3310-3320
sell@3315-3325
tp:3305-3295
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
The bill was introduced; the price did not rise but fell.Due to the implementation of the US bill, most traders in the market are bullish on gold and believe that gold will soar on Monday. As a result, it jumped up and fell sharply this morning. This is the uncertainty of the market. Although the short position given near 3340 last Friday was late, it fell to the low point of 3306 at the opening of the Asian market today.
In addition, the key to this sharp drop is the high point before the rebound, that is, the starting point or the position of the top and bottom conversion. Once it is broken, you have to change your mindset. The volatile market is like this, just get used to it. The turmoil caused by Trump's bill will not appear for a while. It takes a process and cannot be unilaterally considered as bullish or bearish.
In the early Asian market, the price fell all the way from 3342 US dollars to 3306. How to judge the end of the decline? It is to stare at the high point of the rebound before the last decline of 3320 US dollars. The loss of 3300 US dollars in the early trading indicates that the gap-up opening is a lure for more.
Today, I think that 3325 above 3320 can be used as the dividing point between long and short positions. You can short with a light position near 3315, and pay attention to the 3295-3290 line below. After the upward breakthrough is confirmed, consider adjusting the position and making other arrangements. For the time being, we will look at the weak adjustment during the day.
XAUUSD Elliotwaves update: Is wave 4 complete?The view we had in past three weeks was a possibility of complex 4th wave and our short term bias was bearish. But price reacted and closed above 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level and therefore changed our bias to bullish(Technically 4th wave is complete). Another confluence was a clear 5 waves after the reaction on the 61.8 fib. Now two possibilities, either wave 2 is complete and we should expect price to continue up from current price level or a possibility of double 3 to push price down to atleast 61.8 Fib before continuation to the upside. To take advantage of this anticipated move a trader should either wait for price to drop to the golden zone or wait for price to breach the immediate high and retest.
Xauusd Expecting bullish Movement Market I have identified a potential bullish setup based on key rejection zones and target levels
First Rejection Area 3325
Second Rejection Area 3310
First Target 3350
Second Target 3365
Price has shown strong support around the 3310–3325 zone, indicating possible buyer interest. If the market holds above this support range, we could see a move toward the 3350 and 3365 resistance levels
Gold price rises as expected, is 3400 far behind?
💡Message Strategy
Trump announced on Friday that he would impose a 35% comprehensive tariff on Canadian imports, which will take effect on August 1, which caused a market shock. As Canada's largest trading partner, the United States accounts for 76% of Canada's exports in 2024. This move will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the global supply chain and trade pattern.
In addition, Trump's tariff policies on copper and Brazil have further exacerbated market uncertainty, pushing gold prices to break through key technical resistance levels and move towards the $3,400 mark.
The Fed's policy moves also have an important impact on market sentiment. The minutes of the June meeting released on Wednesday showed that the Fed's internal concerns about tariffs potentially pushing up inflation are growing. The minutes pointed out that "most participants emphasized that tariffs could have a more lasting impact on inflation."
Despite this, the Fed reiterated that it would remain on the sidelines and wait for further clarity on inflation and economic activity. At present, according to the market forecast of the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 62.9%, reflecting investors' expectations that the Fed may ease early.
📊Technical aspects
Yesterday’s strategic recommendations mentioned that the effective support level for gold was in the 3280-3285 range. Today, gold fell back to the 3280 level, stabilized, and began to rise, perfectly reaching the target.
From a technical perspective, gold has shown significant upward momentum this week. The daily chart shows that the price of gold has successfully broken through the symmetrical triangle resistance and touched the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $3,339.97.
This breakthrough marks a strengthening of the short-term technical pattern, showing that bulls have the upper hand. The relative strength index (RSI) has rebounded to around 55 on the daily chart and is trending upward, indicating that there is slight bullish momentum in the market.
However, in the short term, the upside of gold may be limited by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($3,370). If this level can be effectively broken, the psychological level of $3,400 and the June high of $3,452 will become the next target.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:3335-3340,SL:3320,Target: 3370-3400
"Gold (XAUUSD) is moving down to grab liquidity."Looking for Impulse Down.
Gold/XauUsd: This chart shows a clear Market Structure Shift (MSS) following a liquidity sweep (SMT) near the highs. Price is now respecting a bearish order block and forming lower highs, indicating smart money distribution.
Targeting sell-side liquidity at 3274.75 and 3246.50. Until price reclaims the most recent supply (above 3,300), the bearish bias remains intact.
Educational Use Only: This breakdown is for study and informational purposes and is not financial advice.
Learn & Earn!
Wave Trader Pro
XAU/USD 1H Outlook
FVG Fill (3320–3318)
Price is expected to drop into the unfilled Fair Value Gap between 3320 and 3318.
London/NY Liquidity Hunt
After filling the FVG, look for a swift bullish impulse during the London and New York sessions to trigger stop-runs and collect liquidity.
Downward Correction to 3305 & 3298
Once the liquidity grab completes, expect a retracement:
First target: 3305
On a break below 3305, next target is the unfilled FVG at 3298
Summary:
Drop → FVG fill (3320–3318) → Bullish liquidity hunt (London/NY) → Retracement toward 3305 (then 3298)