XAUUSD POSSIBLE TRADE SETUPPotential Trade Setup on XAUUSD
Overview:
Gold (XAUUSD) has shown consistent bullish momentum for over 16 months. Recently, we’ve seen a continuation of that strength, especially after breaking above the key $2,320 resistance zone. While there has been some temporary consolidation, the overall bullish structure remains intact, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflation hedging.
That said, I am still anticipating a possible continuation of the bullish momentum that has been in play for quite some time. Moving forward, I will be looking for a clear break above the 3380 region — followed by a successful retest of the breakout zone — before entering a long position.
Alternatively, a short opportunity may arise if the 3350 intraday resistance holds and the price fails to break above it. In that case, I will look for signs of further downward momentum toward the 3300 region.
🧭 Trading Plan:
✅ BUY:
Look for a break and retest of the 3355 region on the 4H timeframe.
🔻 SELL: Bias (Alternative Scenario):
If the price stays below the 3350 zone, then look for a potential short opportunity moving forward.
🎯 Targets & Risk Management: Targeting 1:2 R:R on both setups.
GOLD trade ideas
XAUUSDAt the moment, the world is in a major crisis, generating distrust in the future of the economic system, but at the same time, there is significant speculation about the returns of energy industry companies. This observation, like many others mentioned in global financial news, can serve as a reference for verifying the direction of the markets. It is important to emphasize that if we want to take advantage of all these changes in so many assets, we must be very cautious and aware of the risks involved. Please, this idea is only to share my thoughts on the future of gold in the coming days, where we are looking for a price stabilization after a great deal of turmoil resulting from great optimism and great uncertainty about institutional decisions. Tell me what you think about it.
Vincent Ramirez Cambronero
Stick to shorting gold and holding itAlthough gold has risen sharply to around 3375 in the short term due to the dovish remarks of Fed officials, it has not made an effective breakthrough. Therefore, gold has not reversed its trend due to the short-term rebound. Gold is still in an obvious short trend. In the short term, gold is obviously under pressure in the 3365-3375 area. If gold fails to break through this resistance area, then after gold consumes a certain amount of long energy, gold shorts will counterattack again and are expected to retreat to the 3350-3340 area again.
In the case that good news cannot support the continued rebound of gold, the market's bullish confidence will be hit again, and the short confidence will be further strengthened, stimulating gold to accelerate its decline, and it is even expected to fall below the 3350-3340 area. Therefore, in short-term trading, I still advocate shorting gold, and I am currently holding a short position in gold, and I look forward to the accelerated decline of gold as expected!
Xauusd Still on bearish mode towards 3330H4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently holding the falling wedge pattern on H4 and Range of 3330-3380 .im still expecting one more Drop then Upside move.Last sell trade is successfully 280 pips TP Hit
if gold sustained with this falling wedge pattern with drop of Accumulation behaviour if market remains bearish my 1st target is 3330 then 3320 on intraday.i
3325-3320 is the optimal structural support below area and potential buyying area ,if The H4 & H1 candle closes above 3330-3332 I will took buy and my Targets will be 3350 then 3365.
#XAUUSD
GOLD H1 Intraday Chart Update For 20 JUNE 25Hello Traders we are now at closing day of the week, for today market expected is in tight range and better to wait for closing of the week
strong resistance for the day is 3382 level while strong support for the day is 3333
scalping range for today is 3340-3375
Disclaimer: Forex is Risky
XAU / USD 2 Hour ChartHello traders. So here we are at the end of the day and my chart did not need to be changed. We failied to break out above or below the current range that gold is trading in. Saying that, the chart is still valid for small scalp trade set ups. Maybe the overnight sessions will bring some direction. Either way, I will check back during the London session or when Pre NY volume starts tomorrow morning at about 7:30 am est here in the US. Big G gets a shout out. Be well and trade the trend. Let's see how things play out during the overnight sessions.
XAUUSD: Bearish Trend, Key Support at $3,295Market Overview
In today’s trading session (26/06/2025), XAUUSD shows continued downward momentum. Gold prices are currently hovering around $3,302.05, with a slight drop of 0.01%. The intraday price range has been tight, between $3,330.00 and $3,350.00, indicating a battle between the buyers and sellers around the short-term equilibrium zone.
Recent price action suggests that after a brief recovery, gold is once again encountering resistance at the $3,350.00 level. In the coming hours, a decisive breakout either above this resistance or below current support will dictate the market’s next move.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
Support Levels: The first significant support is at the $3,295.37 level (50% Fibonacci retracement), with the next support at $3,296.60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), followed by a crucial level at $3,300.56.
Resistance Levels: The primary resistance area lies around $3,350.00, with the second resistance at $3,327.72, which coincides with the 3.618 extension of the previous price swing.
Price Action Analysis
As seen in the chart, XAUUSD is currently trading below both the 50-period (blue) and 200-period (yellow) moving averages, indicating a strong bearish trend. The price action is forming a series of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing the downtrend.
Bearish Trend Continuation: A break below the support at $3,295.37 could signal further downside towards $3,290.00 or even $3,275.00. The yellow trendline indicates the overall bearish direction, and any failure to hold above $3,300.00 could trigger additional selling pressure.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Price is testing the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. A rejection at these levels could cause a pullback towards lower support zones, confirming the bearish outlook for the short term.
Volume Analysis
The volume chart shows relatively low volatility, with decreasing volume during the price pullbacks. This suggests that there is not enough buying interest to push the price higher, and the market may be more inclined towards bearish continuation in the near term.
Market Sentiment
Currently, the market is undecided. The recent price action suggests that traders are waiting for a confirmation of direction. The next few hours are critical in determining if the downtrend will continue or if we will see a short-term bounce at one of the key support levels.
Trading Strategy
Short Position: A break below $3,295.37 would be an excellent opportunity to short XAUUSD with a target at $3,290.00, and further down to $3,275.00.
Long Position: Only consider long positions if XAUUSD manages to break above $3,350.00 decisively, with the next target near $3,375.00.
Conclusion
XAUUSD remains under pressure, and unless there’s a strong reversal at support levels, the bearish momentum could continue in the short term. Traders should monitor the key levels mentioned above closely to adjust positions accordingly.
XAUUSD H4 IDEAGold market update
Gold is currently trading at a critical support level : 2590-2580
Key insights:
.Gold maintaining support, poised for potential bounce
.Resistance level : 2685 (retest expected)
.Breakdown below support: next support at 2525
Stay tuned!
Monitor gold's price action closely for potential trading opportunities
Still bearish!If the short-term bull lifeline 3330 is lost, the trend will be bearish again. The first pressure point above is 3350-the secondary top 3345, and then the 3332-35 area. If the price bulls regain 3335 again, then the operation should be carried out in the range of 3350-3310. It is not recommended to enter the market at the halfway point because it is easy to be washed out. If the daily K line closes below 3340, then 3332-35 is the best position at present. At present, the price is bearish below 40, and it can rely on 3332-31 to continue to be bearish. The target is 3310 and 3924.
XAUUSDGold (XAU/USD) has shown bullish momentum, maintaining higher lows and holding above a significant support zone around 3333. A clean breakout above 3335 with sustained volume suggests further upside potential, targeting resistance levels at 3345 and beyond. Risk-reward ratio remains favorable if price action sustaiXAU/USD Trade Analysis – Buy Setup
📌 Trade Idea: Long position on Gold (XAU/USD)
Bias: Bullish continuation after price action confirmation near support
🔹 Entry Zone:
3337 – 3333 (Ideal buy range within key support zone)
🔹 Stop Loss:
3323.00 (Placed below key support/structure to manage risk)
🔹 Take Profit Targets:
🎯 TP1: 3345
🎯 TP2: 3350
🎯 TP3: 3355
ns above the 3333 zone.
Report - 25, June 2025Ceasefire Fragility and Unprecedented Presidential Posture
President Donald Trump has publicly rebuked both Israel and Iran in an attempt to preserve a ceasefire brokered after 12 days of escalating conflict. His unfiltered criticism — including an unusually blunt quote characterizing both sides as having “fought so long... they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing” — signals rising frustration with maintaining stability in a region long considered a geopolitical powder keg.
While initially celebrating the ceasefire and claiming victory over Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Trump’s stance shifted dramatically in response to renewed missile exchanges. Notably, after Iran fired three missiles post-ceasefire (causing no casualties), Israel retaliated by targeting an Iranian radar station, prompting a direct command from Trump via social media:
“ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS… BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!”
Despite ongoing minor violations, both sides have reportedly heeded Washington’s demands, with Israel claiming its military objectives were fulfilled. The ceasefire currently holds, but remains vulnerable to provocation or miscalculation.
Strategic Realignment: U-Turn on Iran Sanctions and Oil Trade
In a major policy reversal, Trump has authorized China to resume importing oil from Iran — effectively dismantling months of sanctions enforcement against Chinese refiners and shipping intermediaries. This shift is tied to two strategic aims:
Stabilize energy markets post-conflict to mitigate inflationary spikes.
Incentivize Iran's continued adherence to the ceasefire.
However, this decision directly contradicts Trump’s earlier "maximum pressure" stance and introduces credibility risk for U.S. sanctions policy. Analysts remain cautious, noting that formal sanction relief has not been legislatively confirmed. If sustained, this move could:
Provide Tehran with critical cash flow (~1.5M bpd exports)
Reduce U.S. leverage in future nuclear negotiations
Empower China in energy diplomacy as a balancing counterweight
NATO Dynamics: Trump Demands 5% Defense Spending
Trump’s NATO agenda has drawn both praise and backlash. In a leaked message, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte credited Trump with forcing European nations to commit to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP:
“You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done.”
While major powers like Germany, France, and the UK are reportedly complying, Spain has refused — risking a public rift. Trump has cast doubt on Article 5 commitments by questioning its interpretation, though he reiterated support for allies “as friends.”
This episode illustrates the dual nature of Trump’s strategy:
A transactional, cost-focused defense model
Willingness to weaponize public embarrassment for leverage
Market Response: Relief Rally, Oil Retreats, and Risk-On Rotation
Markets cheered the ceasefire with a strong rotation into risk assets and away from geopolitical hedges:
Brent crude fell 5.8% to $67.37/barrel, reflecting de-escalation and confidence in uninterrupted Strait of Hormuz access.
S&P 500 hit its highest level since February, rising 1.1%.
Nasdaq jumped 1.4% on renewed tech appetite.
Stoxx Europe 600 gained 1.1%, while FTSE 100 lagged (flat) due to energy exposure (BP –4.8%, Shell –3.7%).
Currency and bond markets responded accordingly:
USD Index –0.5% as safe-haven demand waned
GBP surged to $1.365, highest since 2022
Gold fell 1.6% to $3,314/oz — its sharpest drop in a month
US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.30%, on stronger economic sentiment and Powell’s congressional testimony
Report - June 24, 2025Geopolitical Flashpoint: U.S.–Iran–Israel Conflict Reaches Temporary Pause
After weeks of escalating military engagement, President Trump has declared a phased cease-fire between Iran and Israel, effective June 25. While Israel has not officially confirmed, both sides reportedly agreed to halt attacks if met with mutual restraint. Iran launched 14 missiles toward Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation for the U.S. bombing of its nuclear sites; 13 were intercepted with no casualties. This symbolic attack was designed as a “face-saving” gesture, avoiding a broader conflict or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint.
Market Impact:
Oil dropped sharply (WTI -7.2%, Brent -6.8%) as war premium unwound.
Equities rallied (S&P 500 +1%, Dow +0.9%) on relief from escalation.
Risk-off unwound modestly with global equities rising in Asia (Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +1.8%).
Strategic Implications:
A durable cease-fire is far from guaranteed. Israel may not comply long-term.
Iran’s restraint signals desire for diplomatic off-ramp, supported by Qatari mediation.
U.S. avoided further retaliation, citing the limited scope of Iran’s action as justification.
Trump’s Pressure on the Fed and the ‘Powell Trap’
President Trump has intensified attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding sharp rate cuts (targeting 1–2%). With inflation still near 2.6% Core PCE and tariffs starting to filter through consumer prices, the Fed risks its credibility if it yields to political pressure.
Fed Dynamics:
Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller (Trump appointees) support July cuts due to labor concerns.
Powell testifies before Congress this week, expected to defend central bank independence.
Market Reaction:
10-Year yield fell to 4.32%, 2-Year to 3.83%.
FedWatch: 22.7% chance of July cut, up from 14.5% pre-Iran strike.
Strategic Outlook:
Fed faces a no-win scenario: cut and risk inflation, or hold and face political firestorm.
Political pressure ahead of Powell’s February 2026 term expiry is rising—Trump may be shaping a post-Powell Fed regime.
U.S. Housing Market Update: Rising Inventory, Stalled Buyers
May existing-home sales rose +0.8% MoM (vs. -1.3% est.) but remain near record lows (4.03M annualized). Inventory rose +6.2% MoM, +20.3% YoY, yet affordability remains a major obstacle.
Median price: $422,800 (near record), +1.3% YoY.
Mortgage rates >6.5%, limiting buyer participation.
Price cuts surged (1 in 4 listings), showing seller capitulation.
Homes are sitting longer (27 days on market vs. 24 a year ago).
Implications:
Affordability gap persists: $100k income now affords just 37% of listings vs. 65% in 2018.
Selective regional strength: Midwest/Northeast stronger than Sunbelt/Southwest.
Energy Sector: Fragile but Stabilized for Now
Iran’s deliberate avoidance of energy infrastructure has led to a collapse in crude prices post-spike. However, risks remain:
Strait of Hormuz still vulnerable; closure would cut ~20% of global oil supply.
WTI pulled back to $75.67, Brent at $78.89—still ~10% higher than pre-June levels.
Trump publicly pressuring oil markets to keep prices low, signaling political discomfort with oil shocks during re-election year.
Energy Equities:
Exxon -2.6%, Halliburton -6.8% — oil-linked stocks lagged.
European oil names may rally if prices stay elevated: 7.8% EPS boost with +20% oil (Panmure).
Gold To Go In BuyGold prices tumbled early on Tuesday with safe-haven demand easing as the United States and Iran backed away from hostilities while Tehran reached a shaky ceasefire agreement with Israel.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$72.60 to US$3,322.40 per ounce, 3.8% below the June 13 record high of US$3,452.80.
Continue to short after the rebound on 6.24Judging from the current market trend, the upper short-term resistance is around 3343-48, the lower short-term support is around 3310-15, the short-term long-short strength watershed is 3300-05, the daily level is under pressure and continues to see suppression and adjustment, and the main tone should actually be rebound shorting.
Gold operation strategy:
Gold rebounds to 3343-48 and shorts, stop loss 3356, target 3317-3323, continue to hold if it breaks;
Gold Outlook: Navigating Rising Geopolitical Tensions and Mixed Technical Analysis
The gold spot price recently tested resistance near $3,451, marking a significant swing high. Following this, the price has pulled back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $3,353, which currently acts as critical support. The daily chart shows gold holding above its 50-day weighted moving average (WMA) around $3,250, with an upward sloping trendline reinforcing near-term bullish support.
If gold decisively stays below the $3,353 support, it may test lower levels near $3,293 and potentially the trendline support near $3,228. Such a move could signal a short-term bearish phase, driven by easing geopolitical fears or strengthening US dollar sentiment.
• Support Levels: $3,353 (61.8% Fib), $3,293 (100% Fib retracement), $3,228 (141.4% extension).
• Resistance Levels: $3,451 (recent high), with a possible challenge above to $3,500 psychological level.
Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing neutral at 48, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD histogram indicates weakening bullish momentum, while stochastic oscillators are trending lower but not yet in oversold territory, implying potential for further correction before resuming upward movement.
Conversely, a rebound above $3,451 could trigger fresh bullish momentum targeting $3,500 and beyond.
XAUUSD:Go long
The uncertainties in multiple dimensions such as geopolitics, US monetary policy and tariffs have significantly increased, which will bring more volatility to the gold price.
Today's market trend is still mainly volatile. During the Asian session, there has been a deep pullback. 3316 is the short-term support. It is expected that there will be a rebound in the future.
Trading strategy:
BUY@3325-30
TP:3345-50
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