Gold buyWhile most are zoomed into noise, I’m zoomed into structure.
After a sharp selloff into a key demand zone (look left), price is now showing signs of absorption below a major support line (3,166.805).
This is a textbook example of a Spring :
Stop Hunt + Structural Reclaim + Demand Holding
I’m watching for a 4H bullish break + retest within this compression wedge.
If buyers step in, we could see price reclaim 3,300+ and aim for 3,490 short-term, with a possible continuation higher if momentum sustains.
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What I’m Looking For:
Break above descending trendline (red)
Retest + bullish engulfing OR accumulation pattern on 1H
Targets: 3,400 to 3,490 zone
Invalidation: Clean close below 3,110 zone
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Higher timeframes show strong historical buying interest around this level.
We’re either early… or we’re the liquidity.
I know which side I’m choosing. I'm already long!
GOLD trade ideas
Gold Price at Critical Resistance – Will the Downtrend ContinueTechnical Analysis of the Gold (XAU/USD) 1-Hour Chart
1. Current Trend:
The price is moving within a descending channel, indicating a dominant bearish trend.
This pattern reflects consistent lower highs and lower lows, confirming sustained selling pressure.
2. Resistance Zone (3,150 - 3,175):
The price has just touched the upper boundary of the channel, aligning with a significant resistance area around 3,150 - 3,175.
This zone is reinforced by previous price reactions, making it a critical decision point for traders.
3. Potential Rejection and Continuation:
The dotted blue path on the chart suggests a possible pullback from this resistance.
If the price fails to break above this level, it may trigger another wave of selling, pushing the price toward the lower channel boundary.
4. Key Support Levels:
Immediate support lies around 3,125, with a more substantial floor at 3,100 if the bearish momentum continues.
Gold outlookGold is expected to remain range-bound between 3160 and 3400 in the near term. A decisive breakout above the 3400 resistance level could signal the start of a new bullish phase, potentially establishing a higher high. However, if price action is rejected from this resistance zone, we may witness a retracement toward the next support level, suggesting a continuation of the current consolidation pattern.
XAUUSD Bearish Pennant Breakdown | Retest in Play – 3090 TargetGold (XAUUSD) has been in a corrective phase after reaching the resistance zone around 3370–3420 USD, where the price was previously rejected with strong selling pressure. Over the past sessions, price action has developed into a Bearish Pennant pattern, typically seen as a continuation pattern in a downtrend.
Following a sharp drop from the highs, the price consolidated between converging trendlines, creating lower highs and higher lows. This structure resembles a pennant or triangle formation, which traders often interpret as a pause before the next leg down.
🔍 Key Technical Features:
1. Resistance Zone (3370–3420 USD):
Strong institutional selling observed here.
Multiple rejections confirm this zone as a significant supply area.
This area also serves as a risk management reference point for stop-loss placement.
2. Support Zone (3210–3230 USD):
The price bounced multiple times from this level, making it a key demand area.
A clean break below this zone would confirm bearish continuation.
3. Trendline Resistance:
A descending trendline has been respected consistently since May 8.
Price recently retested this trendline after a minor pullback, aligning with the bearish pennant structure.
4. Bearish Pennant Pattern:
Forms after a strong downward impulse.
The consolidation is narrowing within converging trendlines.
A breakdown with high volume typically leads to a continuation of the prior trend.
5. Breakout & Retest:
Price has already broken below the pennant's lower boundary.
The current move is a retest of the broken trendline—a classic setup for entering a short position upon rejection.
🎯 Bearish Target Projection:
The measured move from the pole of the pennant suggests a target around 3090 USD.
This level is derived by taking the height of the initial drop before the pennant and projecting it downward from the breakout point.
🛑 Stop Loss Strategy:
A conservative stop loss can be placed just above the 3370 USD resistance zone.
Alternatively, a tighter stop could be placed slightly above the trendline (~3240–3250) for aggressive entries, though this increases the risk of a false breakout.
✅ Trading Plan Summary:
Aspect Level / Detail
Entry Zone After retest & rejection (near 3230–3240 USD)
Target 3090 USD
Stop Loss Above 3370 USD
Risk-Reward Approx. 1:3 or higher
Pattern Type Bearish Pennant
🧠 Final Thoughts:
This is a textbook bearish continuation setup with strong confluences:
Trendline resistance
Bearish pennant formation
Breakdown with retest
Clear resistance and support zones for managing risk
If momentum sustains to the downside after the retest, we could see a swift drop toward 3090 USD, offering a favorable shorting opportunity for swing and intraday traders alike.
Always confirm with volume and candlestick confirmation before execution. Stay updated with fundamental drivers such as CPI, PPI, or FOMC comments, which can inject volatility.
Don't panic, gold will continue to fall.
Don't worry, dear traders, gold is still falling.
Two views remain unchanged:
1. After the trade talks between the United Kingdom and the United States and China are eased, Europe, the United States, Japan, the United States and Canada will follow suit, and the short-term tariffs will be eased. This wave of gold rise is actually affected by the increase in tariffs, so the ebb is also affected by the ebb of tariffs.
2. This agreement is only 90 days. In the long run, the tariff talks are only temporarily eased. Trade frictions have not been eliminated and will become more and more serious, so the logic of long-term gold rise has not changed.
From a technical point of view, it has been cyclical recently:
The cycles we often talk about have three forms, time, price, and trend.
Look at the recent market yourself:
1. The opening is a retracement.
2. The continuity of the European market is not high and the rebound is the main one.
3. The volatility of the US market did not continue.
4. It will retrace around noon.
I didn't say it, you didn't feel it, I said it, you can see if it is going this way recently.
The same is true today. The market fell in a cycle around the opening, and the hourly line was in a continuous negative trend. The rebound continued to be short.
1. A correction in a weak situation, a single positive line is enough.
2. If the low point of yesterday's noon is broken, it means that the retracement will continue.
3. In terms of position, this kind of continuous decline pattern can be shorted by referring to the continued decline position in 5 minutes or the hourly line turning positive and pulling back. The first resistance level is 3232-33.
4. The morning continuous decline, the watershed morning high.
5. Whether the European session can break the previous low point is the key to weakness.
6. Still pay attention to the cycle. The European session is weak, and the US session continues to be short after the rebound. If the 3200 line is broken, the European session will fluctuate, and the US session will still fluctuate, and it will be weak in the early morning.
7. In any case, it should be noted that the possibility of gold's short-term retreat is very high, and it is not the right time, especially for long-term, short-term does not matter.
Gold Intraday Buy Setup | Targeting $3,272 ZoneGold is forming a bullish intraday setup with price attempting a rebound from Ichimoku cloud support on the 30-min timeframe. A strong reaction near the lower boundary suggests buyers are stepping in.
🔹 Technical Highlights:
✅ Price bouncing from support
🎯 Defined Risk-to-Reward with SL at $3,216 and TP at $3,272
🔄 Bullish structure forming higher lows intraday
🔹 Fundamental Backdrop:
🏦 Weaker Dollar outlook and lower yields boosting gold
📉 Risk sentiment & geopolitical uncertainty add demand for safe havens
📌 Plan: Long above $3,234, SL at $3,215, TP around $3,270 — solid R:R setup for scalpers/day traders.
XAUUSD | UNPRESIDENTED GOLD RALLY : Where to Next?GOLD has been trading extremely bullish over the past year, with high volume indicating lots of interest and movement in this commodity's market:
Is this where we should be getting worried?
Rapid surges in gold prices have historically been followed by sharp corrections as markets adjust. Three key examples illustrate this;
🧨 the 1980 spike to $850 due to global instability, followed by a 65% drop;
🧨 the 2011 peak near $1,900 driven by economic anxieties, leading to a 40% decline by 2015;
🧨and the 2020 high above $2,075 amid pandemic fears and stimulus, which subsequently settled into a lower range.
Noticing how gold has been trading in a parabolic curve, first corrections are likely to be down the curve (as it has been, historically):
Across past gold peaks ( 1980, 2011, and 2020) and recent record highs, markets share four core similarities:
🎈elevated inflationary expectations,
🎈low or negative real interest‐rate environments,
🎈heightened geopolitical and trade‐war tensions,
🎈aggressive central‐bank and ETF buying.
Today’s gold rally mirrors these patterns, driven by persistent inflation concerns and renewed safe‑haven demand amid Middle East conflicts and Ukraine risk. Aggressive central‑bank and ETF purchases have also replicated past behavior. Emerging‑market central banks have accelerated gold reserves diversification since 2022, just as they did after the 2008 crisis and the Euro‑debt peak in 2011.
Historically, swift peaks have been followed by multi‑year corrections as external conditions normalize. After January 1980’s peak, gold fell by two‑thirds over two years; following 2011’s high, it dropped 40% by 2013. If inflation cools or central banks signal genuine rate normalization, this rally may likewise give way to a sustained consolidation or correction.
Did the BBC just signal the peak??
Recently the BBC warned that while current trade‑war and market volatility parallels past booms, overreliance on gold alone risks miss-timing the eventual downturn when macro fears realize.
Therefore, if the curve breaks, it's likely the beginning of the hard correction.
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OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold (XAU/USD) – 1H Analysis
🏛 Market Structure
Gold remains in a clear downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows on the 1H timeframe.
🔻 After rejecting from the Bear OTE and filling a GAP, price has consistently failed to reclaim any major supply zones.
📉 Current Price Action
⬜️ Supply Zones: The market has respected multiple supply zones on the way down, confirming strong selling pressure.
🟦 Bear OTE: Acted as a ceiling for the recent bearish continuation.
⬜️ Current Area: Price is sitting on a local Supply Zone, but shows no significant bullish reaction for now.
🟦 Bull OTE Zone (3,130–3,140): This is the next major demand area below, and could attract buyers if we sweep current lows.
🎯 Short-Term Expectations
📉 Bearish Bias Maintained :
As long as the price stays below the $3,275–$3,300 area, sellers are in control.
A clean sweep of the Supply Zone around $3,215 could trigger a move into the Bull OTE, offering a potential bounce zone.
📈 Bullish Recovery Only If :
Price reclaims the GAP zone around $3,300, with strong momentum.
This would invalidate the current bearish structure and suggest a rotation back up.
✅ Conclusion
Gold is currently in distribution mode, with sellers dominating and the next key support sitting near the Bull OTE (3,130–3,140).
Until we see clear signs of demand or a structural break, the downtrend remains in play.
5.13 Gold Technical Analysis
Due to the sudden drop in risk aversion, funds have flowed out of the precious metals market. The current gold market is facing a fierce game between long and short positions. On the one hand, the optimism brought about by the easing of trade tensions suppresses gold prices; on the other hand, the risk aversion demand generated by economic uncertainty, potential spot shortages and continued inflows of ETF funds provide support for gold prices. This complex market environment makes the trend of gold prices full of variables.
Citigroup has significantly lowered its gold price expectations. The US labor market is showing signs of fatigue. The current market focus has shifted to the April core CPI data to be released today. Its stickiness expectations (0.3% month-on-month) may further consolidate the Fed's "standstill" policy stance and provide fundamental support for the US dollar.
Technical aspect: Spot gold rebounded at the neckline position, and the moving average cross was under pressure to move down to 3300. The K-line combination was under pressure to focus on 3270. At the same time, pay attention to the buying sentiment at the lower edge of the 3205/3200 range. In terms of daily structure, the price saws around the MA30 life moving average. The key long-short watershed this week is still at 3200, and the KDJ/MACD cross is downward. If the market loses 3200 in the short term, then the support will be found at 3135/3100 below; in the short term, if the daily price can recover 3320, then the market will continue to rise to 3330. The short-term market is still in a wide range of fluctuations;
Combined with the 1-hour K-line chart, the European session rebounded and oscillated. Under pressure, pay attention to the 3278 line. KDJ/MACD corrected upward. Pay attention to the moving average support near 3240. Pay attention to the impact of CPI data in the European and American sessions. The technical side continues to see a rebound. Don't chase orders too much in trading. This week's gap of 3288-3325 is the key to the bulls.
In terms of trading, the US session temporarily plans to participate in long positions in batches near 3220/3230, and defend 3204; short positions pay attention to short-term participation in batches near 3275/3288, and defend 3293.
Gold on the Edge — Is This the Start of a Major Breakdown?#XAUUSD / #GOLD
Gold is retesting a major resistance zone within a clear downtrend — and the pressure is building.
After a sharp 3% drop, gold is stabilizing near $3,200, as markets brace for the upcoming US CPI data, which could spark a major move.
Optimism over US-China trade talks and dollar profit-taking is providing temporary support… but how long will it hold?
Key Resistance: 3269 - 3284
Support Levels: 3246 - 3200 - 3167
If inflation data brings no surprises, expect a potential false breakout near 3260–3270, followed by heavy selling back toward 3200 and possibly 3150.
Trend Bias: Bearish — and the perfect sell setup may be right around the corner.
Gold is trading sideways, can the bearish trend continue?🗞News side:
1. China-US trade relations eased, suspending some tariffs and countermeasures
2. Russia and Ukraine suspended firing for 30 days, and the India-Pakistan conflict was temporarily mediated
📈Technical aspects:
The trading strategy given today, if brothers have reference and follow the trading strategy to participate in long orders, I think you should all have good gains on hand. At present, gold is in consolidation, the 4H moving average is in a short position, and the MACD dead cross continues to increase, so the short-term short momentum still exists. From a technical point of view, in the downward trend from last week's high of 3347 to the current low of 3207, 3260 is at a key position. Therefore, we pay attention to the possibility of gold rebounding to 3260 in the evening.
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
GOLD complete analysis on sell based on demand and supply ,London and asian take profit.as the market opens ,the take profit which started on friday manifested fully.so its important to know that the Friday break of structured was retested .meaning we have more sell impulse than buy and on technical if we have London buy from 3222 to retest broken demand floor from 3273 zone ,newyork session will likey sell from that level until we approach 4hr demand floor 3120-3100 level or lower
Gold / Xauusd needs a upward CorrectionMarket already makes agap in the morning. profile shape p is occuring. So there is buy build up. BUt market makes a failed auction in the morning. This creates a little bit confusions. market hope so it's just a short squeeze. Find buy at the poc level.
No Confirmation no trade
Start the New week of XAU/USD outlook Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly Forecast | Starting Price: $3200
Gold closed last week at $3200, marking a strong bullish sentiment in the market. As the new week opens, we anticipate initial consolidation followed by potential upward momentum.
Key Technical Highlights:
ATR Levels: Suggest volatility remains elevated; expect swings within $3190 – $3280 range.
Buy Zone: $3185 – $3205 (ideal for short-term entries)
Sell Zone: $3275 – $3295 (attractive area for potential reversals)
RSI: Currently near 60 on 1H; no overbought signal yet.
VWAP: Price currently trading just above VWAP – indicating bullish pressure.
Scenarios:
A break above $3265 could lead to a test of $3300
Failure to hold $3200 may open a retracement toward $3170
Trading Bias: Mildly Bullish
Time Horizon: Next 12 hours
Risk Management: SL below $3170 | TP near $3290 for buy positions
Analysis by Mohsen Mozafari Nezhad
Gold(XAUUSD) bearish Friday 16 may 2025Gold relatively moving back to liquidity in my opinion, if you catch this post early you may be able to capitalize on entry at supply area.
If price enters our liquidity zone I will start looking for a reversal pattern. ChoCh, retest, break, entry. Downward continuation to sweep liquidity.