Gold Rally Nears Exhaustion? Key Levels for the Next Big MoveGold has seen a powerful impulsive rally recently, but technical signs suggest a healthy correction could be near. Traders should keep a close eye on key levels for potential buying opportunities after a pullback.
Key Technical Points
Wave 5 Completion: The current bullish impulsive wave 5 appears to be nearing completion.
Key Fibonacci Level: The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement sits at $2,857 — a critical level for a potential corrective move.
Support to Watch: Loss of the $3,210 daily support would confirm the start of a corrective ABC pattern.
If gold maintains its daily support at $3,210, momentum could continue higher before any deeper pullback. However, if this support level is lost, traders should expect a correction down towards the 0.618 Fibonacci at $2,857, where swing long setups could become highly favorable. A healthy reset here would set a stronger foundation for the next bullish leg.
GOLD trade ideas
GOLD Analysis (April 26, 2025) - 2 hours, weekly & MonthlyChart 1: 2-Hour Chart (Short-Term View)
Pattern Observed:
Clear Elliott Wave structure identified.
Wave ①, ②, ③, and ④ are completed.
Currently in Wave ⑤ (ongoing impulsive up move).
Current Setup:
Wave ⑤ has started and appears to be very impulsive.
The target for Wave ⑤ is near $3600 zone.
Expect a sharp upside move toward $3600 in coming sessions (possibly within next 1–2 weeks).
Important Note:
Since Wave ⑤ is impulsive, price may move very fast with little retracements.
Strategy:
Short-term bullish until $3600 is reached.
After completing ⑤, expect a strong and sharp correction downward.
Chart 2: Weekly Chart (Medium-Term View)
Pattern Observed:
Weekly candle has formed a long-legged inverted hammer, almost like a high wave spinning top.
This is a warning sign indicating strong indecision and possible trend exhaustion.
Interpretation:
Weekly structure is signaling that GOLD is losing strength at higher levels.
There is hesitation for further continuation of the uptrend.
After a small last push (likely completing the final Wave ⑤), there are high chances of a bigger retracement.
Strategy:
Watch closely how next week’s candle forms.
If next week closes weakly or forms a bearish pattern (like bearish engulfing), expect bigger fall.
Chart 3: Monthly Chart (Long-Term View)
Pattern Observed:
Monthly chart shows momentum loss at top.
AO (Awesome Oscillator) indicator is flattening after a massive upmove.
Momentum divergence starting to appear (price made higher high, AO showing flattening/slightly diverging).
Interpretation:
GOLD is still strong, but momentum is clearly reducing at the top.
If GOLD touches $3600 next month and fails to sustain, a big red monthly candle can form.
This could mark the start of a medium-term bearish phase (several months correction).
Strategy:
Next month (May 2025) is extremely critical for GOLD’s major trend decision.
If a red candle forms in May after touching $3600, it could trigger a multi-month downward correction.
Conclusion:
In the short term (next few days), GOLD likely continues to rally towards $3600.
Next 2–3 weeks are critical — observe if reversal signs appear near $3600.
May 2025 is very important:
A monthly red candle after touching $3600 can confirm a bigger downward correction.
If correction starts, it will likely be sharp and deep, matching the intensity of the 5th wave up.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not a financial advice. Trading involves risk. Please consult your financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Next Steps and Market Outlook on Trading Gold If buyers hold above $3,306.21 and break $3,306.98, I’ll look for $3,312.10 as my first take-profit, potentially extending to $3,319.05 if momentum builds. If price fails to break $3,306.98 and drops below $3,294.71, I’ll exit and flip back to a short, targeting $3,269.82, as I’ve noted in my earlier analyses this week. The market’s tricky with these liquidity grabs
What do you think, fam? Was my buy at $3,308.16 a smart flip, or am I jumping the gun against the bearish trend? Drop your thoughts below—I’m curious to hear how you’d play this XAU/USD setup! If you’re one of the two ready to join me at Academia for Forex Trading, let’s talk—we’ll hunt these markets together. And while you’re at it, check out Icon Collections Store—does RiverSide, Desire, or Icoca vibe with your trading energy? Let me know!
Gold forms a top patternOn the H4 chart, the gold price chart is forming a clear bearish structure after forming a three-peak pattern in a row around the $3,435–$3,470 range. Each time the price touches this range, it is strongly rejected, indicating that selling pressure controls the market. The fact that the price cannot maintain above the EMA34 and EMA9 at the same time is also a sign of confirmation of a weakening trend in the short term.
Although gold recovered slightly to the $3,365 range in the Asian session on April 25 thanks to news of PBOC money injection and a weakening USD, the buying pressure was not enough to break the bearish structure. The price quickly reversed and fell below the $3,300 mark, confirming the possibility of further correction in the near future.
Currently, the price has cut below the two EMAs and broken the nearest bottom at $3,290, triggering a bearish signal according to the “small head and shoulders” pattern on the H4. The next target is the strong support zone of $3,180–$3,220. If this zone is broken, the correction trend may extend deeper to the $3,100 area.
The appropriate short-term strategy at this time is to wait for the price to retrace to the $3,310–$3,330 area, cut losses above $3,350 and take profits around $3,200. The bullish scenario will only happen if the price breaks above $3,370 and closes above the old resistance – then the bearish structure will be broken.
GOLD USDHI GUYS.
well here gold hopefully will sell soon i expect double top h4,h2 h1 chart for sell entries . if it doesn't happen and gold dumps without pull back we wait because investors are waiting for it to sell down and confirm the daily trend chart pattern and div on RSI for second confirmation for buys some time next month. so u can either be patient and let gold sell or dump down or grab entries when situation presents itself
CHECK XAUUSD ANALYSIS SIGNAL UPDATE > GO AND READ THE CAPTAINBaddy dears friends 👋🏼
(XAUUSD) trading signals technical analysis satup👇🏼
I think now (XAUUSD) ready for(SELL)trade( XAUUSD ) SELL zone
( TRADE SATUP)
ENTRY POINT (3482) to (3480) 📊
FIRST TP (3474)📊
2ND TARGET (3463) 📊
LAST TARGET (3456) 📊
STOP LOOS (3490)❌
Tachincal analysis satup
Fallow risk management
Gold over BTCYep, them are some fightin' words right there. But, on a monthly chart, Gold / BTC tells a potential story. It may not happen this year, but it looks to be shaping up.
A black swan event could actually be a reversion to a gold standard or something similar, causing sovereigns to scramble for physical gold, causing the price to skyrocket.
Perhaps capital controls on USD? Something else related to USD? Who knows, but a falling wedge at this scale is important.
XAUUSD : Accumulating around the peak areaGold prices today remain stable in the high zone around 3,330 USD. This precious metal is temporarily sideways due to the market entering the Easter holiday, but the upward momentum has not shown any signs of stopping.
Accordingly, geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and trade policies from the US continue to be supportive factors for gold during this period. The current resistance level is around 3,353 USD, while the nearest support zone is 3,300 USD.
Gold may correct slightly and accumulate momentum after the recent strong increase. We should wait for the price to return to important zones such as EMA 34, the support zone, or wait for the price to break the resistance zone to enter reasonable orders when the market is active again.
Prioritize trading according to the trend, everyone, don't forget to set full TP and SL to ensure safety.
4H Gold (XAUUSD) chart 4H Gold (XAUUSD) chart
Let’s break it down:
🧐 Current Structure:
• Price has pushed up strongly (big bullish momentum).
• Now it’s consolidating after the strong move (small candles, indecision).
• No clear breakout yet after consolidation.
• Last strong push started from around 3200-3220.
• Current level: around 3327.
📈 Is there a Buy Now?
NO, not immediately now.
• The price is stalling (small candles = indecision = possible short pullback).
• Buying now would be chasing — risky because price might correct first.
🔔 Better buy plan:
• Wait for price to pull back to a strong support zone.
• Good buy area = around 3280–3290 (small pullback) or stronger at 3250 (deeper pullback zone).
• Look for a bullish 4H candle confirmation at those levels (like a pin bar or bullish engulfing).
📉 Can you scalp a Sell?
YES, but very carefully.
• You can scalp a sell IF price breaks below 3320 with momentum.
• Target = 3300–3290 area for scalping (small pullback zone).
• Be careful: overall trend is still bullish, so selling is short-term only!
🛡️ Scalp Sell Setup Idea:
• Sell break below 3320.
• Stop loss above 3335.
• Target 3300–3290.
🚨 Quick Strategy Summary:
Action Condition Target
Buy Pullback to 3280–3250 with bullish candle 3350–3380
Scalp Sell Break below 3320 3290–3300
Gold at it's Peak Now???Gold has pushed right though the HTF 0:1.618.
Now catching resistance at the 1:2.414 ratio band. If it pushes through this ratio, there is not much stopping it from hitting the upper 2.272 level.
If a correction were to start here (and it's about that time) this may be a clue that a rally up for crypto will begin soon, as this was this case for the last Gold correction that started in November 2024.
-Not Financial Advice-