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Gold price analysis June 20Daily candle continues to show the dispute while the Sellers are dominating. Today there may be a deep sweep and then recovery at the end of the day. Yesterday and this morning's 3343 zone did not sweep, so we cancel this zone. BUY must wait until below 3323. Note additional daily support at 3296 for today's 2 buy strategies. 3362 gives a SELL Breakout signal in the Asia-Europe session. If Gold closes back above 3362, then BUY will go up to 3400, the target of the two upper resistance zones remains the same as yesterday at 3415 and 3443
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold Takes the Throne as Safe Haven AgainThe recent escalation in the Middle East — particularly Israel’s surprise strike on Iran — has stirred up significant volatility in global financial markets. Oil prices surged, stock markets around the world turned red, just as many had predicted. However, in a surprising twist, capital did not rush into the usual safe havens like the US dollar or Treasury bonds. Instead, it flowed decisively into gold. In fact, US Treasury yields have soared from 3.98% in April to around 4.42% now. This surge doesn’t signal growing confidence — it reflects investor demand for higher returns to compensate for the rising risk of holding dollar-denominated assets. Against this backdrop, gold is emerging as an “unshackled safe haven” — immune to political instability tied to fiat-currency-issuing nations. The precious metal is once again proving its value in times of global uncertainty.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Edward_TradingFX
23
Gold- Back to 3300 again?After Monday’s correction into the 3380 support zone, Gold entered a consolidation phase. Bulls attempted to push higher but failed to reclaim the 3400 resistance area. ❓ Is this just the beginning of a deeper leg down? 🔻 Why further downside is likely: • Price broke decisively below the 3380 horizontal support just hours ago • The market is now trading around 3365, confirming bearish momentum • 3400 remains unbroken on the daily chart – keeping the downward pressure 📌 Trading plan: As long as we don’t see a daily close above 3400, I’m selling rallies. A test of the 3300 level is very likely if current pressure continues. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
1
$XAU — Endless Up-Trend on GOLD!Gold ( TVC:XAU ) continues its powerful uptrend , repeating a clear and profitable trading pattern: explosive moves (20-30% gains) , brief sideways consolidations, and renewed breakouts. Since early 2024, three such cycles have occurred, each flagged by red breakout arrows on the 1W chart. Currently, gold is forming another tight consolidation range between roughly $3,200–3,450. Historically, these consolidations have consistently resolved upward. If the pattern repeats, the next target zones lie around $3,985 (+20%) and $4,385 (+30%) . Such bullish targets align with major banks: Goldman Sachs targets $3,700 by year-end and potentially $4,500 in high-risk scenarios, while J.P. Morgan forecasts $4,000 by mid-2026. Several factors fuel gold’s bullish momentum: • Central-bank buying remains robust, projected to surpass 1,000 tonnes for the fourth consecutive year. • Geopolitical risks, tariff disputes, and a weakening USD have enhanced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. • Central banks increasingly prioritize gold for reserve diversification and risk management, not just speculation. So, to be short: if weekly closes stay above the $3,200 support, gold likely continues its bullish momentum toward the $4,000 handle .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RobertMercer
Gold delivering excellent Scalp opportunities Fundamental analysis: Gold was among the losers (Short-term) of the Fed's decision this throughout yesterday’s session for then first time within #8-Month period. Valuable ground's given and #3,400.80 benchmark looks unreachable for at least this week’s borders. Fed kept rates unchanged, and signaled that current Rate would continue through #2025 to support the next phase of the economic recovery. Investors clearly show their interest to try riskier assets like equities and as long as DX is without a recovery (currently on steep Descending Channel), Gold will keep constantly deliver Bull spikes. Daily chart turned Neutral with Resistance level priced at #3,395.80 - #3,400.80 and if invalidated I expect historic upside potential of Gold (my estimations show even #3,452.80 and #3,500.80 in succession within #2 - #3 Month variance). Quarterly Investors will pressure on the Resistance based on Bullish Fundamental outlook on Gold. However with Gold’s Technicals critically Bearish, I won’t be surprised to see values below #3,352.80 benchmark tested and invalidated. My position : I have monitored the Price-action from sidelines and spotted few patterns however didn’t engaged as my Profit range is already decent. However I spotted excellent post-Fed opportunity and Bought Gold aggressively on #3,363.80 and closed the order on #3,378.80 last night. I will continue Scalping current #3,357.80 - #3,395.80 range as it is excellent Trading lately.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by goldenBear88
XAUUSD – Support Under Threat, Deeper Decline LoomsGold is stalling below the 3,444 USD resistance, forming a series of lower highs — a clear sign of weakening bullish momentum. The support area around 3,358 USD is under pressure, and a break below this level could trigger a drop toward 3,280 USD. On the news front, the FOMC has reaffirmed its hawkish stance, making no mention of a rate cut despite signs of slowing economic growth. This has strengthened the USD, placing additional downward pressure on gold. In summary, XAUUSD is on the verge of breaking its bullish structure. If current support fails, sellers may take full control of the market. XAUUSD Trade Idea: Position: SELL if price breaks below 3,358 USD Target: 3,304 – 3,280 USD Stop Loss: Above 3,400 USD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Rocky_trade_
GOLD fluctuates, but remains generally stable sidewaysOANDA:XAUUSD has been volatile and volatile but has remained broadly stable as investors assess the conflict between Israel and Iran while keeping an eye on this week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. Spot gold was steady at $3.38/oz at press time, down from a high of $3,403/oz yesterday (Tuesday). Israel and Iran traded fire for a fifth day on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of the Iranian capital Tehran and cut short his trip to the G7 summit in Canada, amid reports he had asked his administration's National Security Council to prepare in the Situation Room. According to Reuters, Tehran has asked Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to urge Trump to push Israel for a regional ceasefire in exchange for Iran's willingness to be flexible in nuclear talks. Trump's latest Truth Social post stated: "I have not communicated with Iran in any way, shape or form about (peace talks). This is all fake news! If they want to negotiate, they know how to communicate with me. They should make a deal at the negotiating table, it will save lives!!!" Forexlive commented that those who know Trump know that he will definitely wait for Iran to come to him. According to reports, Iran is trying to negotiate a ceasefire, but has not received any substantive news so far. Non-yielding gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty and has generally performed well in low interest rate environments. So, fundamentally speaking, gold should be positive in the current market environment, although the sharp declines often make new traders lose their confidence in the trend. I myself have been the same way, there have been many times this year when I did not believe in myself, did not believe in the uptrend and ended up with bad results… The Fed's interest rate decision and Chairman Jerome Powell's speech will be released today (Wednesday). Traders are now expecting the Fed to cut interest rates twice by the end of the year. According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" on June 18: • The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.3% and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.7%; • The probability of a rate stay unchanged in July is 85.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 14.4% and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has been trading back and forth between the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the 3,400USD whole price point, which was noted as the nearest support and resistance sent to readers in the previous issue. However, the overall technical structure remains unchanged with the uptrend still dominating the chart, with the EMA21 support as the important support and the trend as the main trend. Meanwhile, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level is the nearest support and the price channel is the short-term trend. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50 and 50 is considered support in this case for the RSI, with the distance far from the overbought zone suggesting that there is still room for upside ahead. During the day, if gold breaks above the raw price point of $3,400, it will give a positive signal for the bullish outlook and the target is then around $3,435 in the short term. Finally, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: $3,371 – $3,350 Resistance: $3,400 – $3,435 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3423 - 3421⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3427 →Take Profit 1 3415 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3409 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3351 - 3353⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3347 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3365
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 245,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous 250,000 and in line with forecasts around 246,000. Interpretation of the Data: Current Level: Claims are stabilizing near the highest levels seen in the past eight months but remain historically low overall, indicating the labor market is slowing but still relatively resilient. Labor Market Momentum: The slight decline suggests a modest easing in layoffs but also reflects a gradual loss of labor market momentum, consistent with softer hiring trends seen in recent months. Seasonal and Technical Factors: Some elevation in claims is attributed to seasonal factors such as summer school breaks allowing non-teaching personnel to claim benefits, and technical adjustments. Impact on Markets and Fed Policy: The Fed views stable but slightly elevated claims as a sign that the labor market is cooling but not weakening sharply. This supports the expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in the June 18TH meeting while monitoring future data for signs of further labor market weakening or inflation pressures. The data reduces immediate pressure for aggressive rate cuts but keeps the door open for gradual easing later in the year if the labor market softens further. Federal Reserve June 2025 FOMC Decision and Market Implications 1. Federal Funds Rate Decision The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 18, 2025 meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates. 2. FOMC Economic Projections The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including the "dot plot," was released alongside the rate decision. Key highlights: Policymakers continue to project two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, but the timing remains data-dependent and could shift if inflation or labor market conditions change. The Fed’s economic outlook reflects slower growth, slightly higher unemployment, and persistent inflation risks compared to earlier in the year. The median forecast for core PCE inflation in 2025 is 2.8%, with GDP growth expected at 1.7%. The unemployment rate is projected to rise modestly, with the labor market showing signs of gradual cooling. 3. FOMC Statement Highlights The FOMC statement emphasized a data-dependent approach, noting that while inflation is easing, it remains above the 2% target. The committee acknowledged mixed economic signals: inflation is moderating, but labor market participation has declined and global uncertainties (tariffs, geopolitical tensions) persist. The Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining restrictive policy until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target. 4. FOMC Press Conference (7:30pm) Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance, stating that the committee needs to see more evidence of sustained progress on inflation before considering rate cuts. Powell highlighted that the timing and pace of future rate cuts will depend on incoming data, particularly regarding inflation and labor market trends. The press conference also addressed external risks, including the impact of tariffs and geopolitical events on the economic outlook. 5. Market and Economic Implications Bond Yields and Dollar: The decision to hold rates steady, combined with cautious forward guidance, is likely to keep the 10-year Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar relatively stable in the near term. Rate Cut Expectations: Markets continue to price in the first rate cut for September 2025, but the Fed’s projections suggest a slower and more data-driven path to easing. Key Risks: Upside risks to inflation (e.g., from energy prices or tariffs) and downside risks to growth (e.g., from labor market softening) remain central to the Fed’s outlook. 6. Summary Table Federal Funds Rate 4.25%–4.50% (unchanged) No immediate change in borrowing costs Rate Cut Projections 2 cuts in 2025 (data-dependent) First cut likely in September Core PCE Inflation 2.8% (2025 forecast) Above target, supports cautious Fed GDP Growth 1.7% (2025 forecast) Slower growth outlook Unemployment Rate Gradual increase expected Labor market cooling Conclusion The Fed’s June 2025 decision reflects a steady, cautious approach amid persistent inflation and a gradually cooling labor market. The committee remains data-driven, with future rate cuts contingent on clear evidence of sustained progress toward its inflation and employment goals. #GOLD # DXY
EASYMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
2
Gold: Will It Hold or Be Manipulated?Gold: Will It Hold or Be Manipulated? During this week, the picture of gold did not change much. The price found a strong support area near the 3375 level, and it seems that it will not decrease further without some major news. The price of gold has recently been dominated only by the war between Israel and Iran, which is in its 6th day without any agreement yet between the US and Iran. Today we have the FOMC meeting, but in my opinion, the decision that the FED may take regarding the interest rate has no impact on the price of gold, since Gold is a safe asset and the current situation is critical. We may see speculative moves to lower gold during the FOMC, but under normal conditions, it should not fall given the current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. It can only fall from any manipulation, because from a fundamental perspective, gold should rise or at least a long pause around our area may be needed. Key target zones: 3420 | 3450 | 3470 | 3490 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
FX:XAUUSDLong
by KlejdiCuni
5
GOLD On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 245,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous 250,000 and in line with forecasts around 246,000. Interpretation of the Data: Current Level: Claims are stabilizing near the highest levels seen in the past eight months but remain historically low overall, indicating the labor market is slowing but still relatively resilient. Labor Market Momentum: The slight decline suggests a modest easing in layoffs but also reflects a gradual loss of labor market momentum, consistent with softer hiring trends seen in recent months. Seasonal and Technical Factors: Some elevation in claims is attributed to seasonal factors such as summer school breaks allowing non-teaching personnel to claim benefits, and technical adjustments. Impact on Markets and Fed Policy: The Fed views stable but slightly elevated claims as a sign that the labor market is cooling but not weakening sharply. This supports the expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in the June 18TH meeting while monitoring future data for signs of further labor market weakening or inflation pressures. The data reduces immediate pressure for aggressive rate cuts but keeps the door open for gradual easing later in the year if the labor market softens further. #GOLD
CITYINDEX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
GOLD H4 Update: Bulls will target 3600/3750 USD Market Update🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update (June 16, 2025) 📊 Price & Technical Outlook Current Spot Price: around $3,414  Technical Setup * Gold consolidating above major support at \~\$3,180–3,200 * Testing resistance at \~\$3,380–3,400; breakout could push toward \$3,600 * Recent price action considered a healthy consolidation with upside potential 🏆 Bull Market Overview * Pullback likely complete; supported by strong geopolitical and macro tailwinds * Key price levels: \$3,000 / \$3,200 / \$3,400 (resistance near \$3,400) * Bullish target: \$3,600, with further upside possible if momentum holds * Short-term dips remain buying opportunities—“buy the dip” remains favored ⭐ Recommended Strategy BUY/HOLD: Continue to accumulate on dips, using \$3,200–3,300 as entry zones Target: Maintain bull target at \$3,600, with breakout opportunity above \$3,400 🏦 Macro & Market Drivers Fed & Central Bank Outlook * Investors positioning for possible Fed rate cuts later this year, likely totaling around 75 bps by end of 2025 * Ongoing dollar weakness supports gold Geopolitical Tensions * Middle East unrest, U.S.–Iran dynamics, and global evacuations are fueling safe-haven demand for gold * Continued volatility in global hotspots likely to keep gold elevated Risk Appetite & Market Behavior * Both stocks and gold are climbing—an unusual “optimism + fear” scenario * Central banks, especially in China, India, and Turkey, have been strong gold buyers in 2025 * Speculative positions in gold futures remain high U.S.–China & Trade Tariffs * Unresolved U.S.–China tariffs and tensions continue to support gold * Any easing in trade friction could temper gold’s advance 📰 Latest Market Sentiment * Wall Street remains bullish on gold for the upcoming week, though some caution persists ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting * Macro environment is seen as supportive for gold and other precious metals * Gold’s rally is positively influencing the broader precious metals market 🌏 Demand Themes * **Asian Buyers**: China may relax gold import quotas to manage currency, while India demand remains strong though can be seasonally slower * **Central Banks**: Over 240 tonnes of gold added in Q1 by central banks, with China and India as top buyers ⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints * Fed surprises: A more hawkish tone at the next meeting could push gold back toward \$3,200–3,300 * Geopolitical breakthroughs: Any stable resolutions could reduce safe-haven demand * Large speculative position unwinds could create short-term volatility 🔎 Mid-Term Outlook Summary | Scenario | Support | Resistance | Catalysts | | --------- | ------------- | ---------- | ----------------------------------- | | Base case | \$3,200–3,300 | \$3,400 | Rate cut expectations + geopolitics | | Bull case | Above \$3,400 | \$3,600+ | Escalating risk, dovish Fed | | Bear case | Below \$3,200 | — | Hawkish Fed, easing global tensions | ✔️ Final Take * Technical and fundamental momentum supports a continued bull phase with key target at \$3,600 * Best strategy: accumulate on dips between \$3,200–3,300 * Key factors to watch: Fed’s next move (June 17), Middle East developments, U.S.–China trade actions, central bank buying
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
40
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3500.Colleagues, I believe that, as with the euro, the upward five-wave impulse is not yet over. At the moment, I see the formation of wave “3” of the lower order and wave ‘3’ of the middle order, which means that the upward movement will continue at least to the resistance area of 3500 — this is the maximum of wave “3” of the higher order, which means that a correction is possible at this level. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
29
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3340 and a gap below at 3418. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3340 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3340 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3463 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3463 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3483 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3483 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3508 BEARISH TARGETS 3418 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3418 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3393 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3393 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3372 3353 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3393 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3330 3306 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
15
Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Analysis: Geopolitical Safe-Haven RallyOANDA:XAUUSD demonstrated exceptional strength this week as geopolitical tensions from Israeli-Iranian conflicts drove massive safe-haven demand. The metal successfully broke above the critical 3,360 resistance level, confirming the completion of an inverse head and shoulders pattern that has been forming since April. The 4H chart reveals the market appears to be forming an ascending triangle pattern within a broader upward trendline, suggesting continued bullish momentum. The recent breakout above the monthly high resistance zone indicates strong institutional buying pressure. The daily chart presents an even more compelling picture with the completion of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal formation. This technical setup, combined with the massive flag pattern completion, projects potential targets toward $3,650-$3,700 levels. The right shoulder formation confirms the pattern's validity, while sustained buying above previous resistance zones validates the upward trajectory. We should monitor the $3,430-$3,450 resistance area closely, as a decisive break could accelerate momentum toward the projected targets. The combination of geopolitical risk premiums and technically sound chart patterns creates a favorable environment for continued gold appreciation in the mid-term. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lingrid
22
GOLD 3HR PYTHUnemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
PYTH:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
2
GOLD Unemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
GOLD 3HR LINE CHARTUnemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Gold within known rangeTechnical analysis: Descending Channel on Hourly 4 chart was discontinued as there was an attempt on the same chart to develop Ascending Channel and extend the Intra-day’s relief rally above #3,402.80 benchmark. My action plan remains intact as I will continue operating with Scalp Sell and Buying orders as long as #3,362.80 - #3,402.80 zone holds (so far it hasn't been crossed again to the upside or downside) and reversal towards #3,417.80 Resistance in extension if #3,402.80 benchmark gets invalidated. Consider the Lower High’s Upper zone test on the Daily chart’s scale, while Hourly 4 chart turned Bearish on my key indicators sessions ago. As expected, yesterday's session Daily candle closed below the #3,395.80 Resistance, widely above both of the Daily chart’s MA’s, turning flat for the session (isolated within Neutral rectangle however). That is a strong indication that the market is attempting to Price the Bottom here (temporary or not), which just so happens to be a Lower High's Lower zone within Daily chart’s Ascending Channel. It is no surprise that today's Hourly 4 chart’s candle is attempting to engage Bearish sequence so far and since its on Bearish Technicals (invalidated Ascending Channel), I consider it the most optimal re-Buy entry for a Short-term recovery back towards #3,288.80 - #3,392.80 Resistance belt or above (representing last week’s High’s). My position: Even though I mentioned remaining on sidelines, I used #3,388.80 - #3,392.80 as an excellent re-Buy zone and closed my set of Scalping orders within #3,393.80 - #3,398.80 and remained off for the session. It is indeed clash of Bearish Technicals and War news (Fundamentally Bullish) as I will keep my Trading activity to minimum, protecting my capital for now.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by goldenBear88
2
GOLD 3HR OANDA Unemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD 1HRUnemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
CITYINDEX:XAUUSD
by Shavyfxhub
1
GOLD 30MIN Unemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
CITYINDEX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub