XAUUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis (1H + 4H Continuation)🔍 1H Structure Recap:
BOS at $3205, followed by a bearish drop to $3120
CHoCH at $3193 signaled a potential shift
We marked a demand zone at $3120–$3140, expecting a buy reaction
🔍 4H Expanded View (Current Chart):
Price gave us a CHoCH, indicating the break of the bullish structure
A clear Supply Zone formed at $3260–$3285
Price recently tapped this zone and got rejected, confirming supply dominance
There’s a larger demand zone around $2950–$3000, which price could target if bearish pressure continues
⚠️ What This Tells Us:
✅ The market is now bearish on the higher timeframe (4H), even though short-term (1H) showed a bullish correction
✅ The supply zone held strong, rejecting price and keeping the bearish trend intact
✅ There’s no strong bullish BOS on 4H yet, so we focus on selling from premium zones
🔮 Trade Outlook:
🔽 Sell Setup (High Probability):
Wait for price to revisit the $3260–$3285 supply zone
Look for rejection or bearish confirmation patterns (like bearish engulfing or M-patterns)
TP levels:
First target: $3120 (1H demand)
Final target: $3000–$2950 (4H demand zone)
🔼 Buy Setup (Lower Probability unless structure shifts):
If price breaks $3285 and forms BOS on 4H, we shift bias to bullish
Then wait for a retest to go long
🎯 Key Levels:
Supply Zone: $3260–$3285
Demand Zone (1H): $3120–$3140
Demand Zone (4H): $2950–$3000
CHoCH Confirmation: Already printed – market is in a correction or downtrend
📌 Summary:
Stay with the bearish bias until structure tells us otherwise. The supply zone is in control for now. Smart traders are patient – let price come to your zone and react.
GOLD trade ideas
GOLD Buy Trade Plan (XAUUSD 15min)After a strong day of buying, some easing has taken place over the Asia session and we are now looking at a medium term bull trend with a mixed overall sentiment.
Noted that price rised to break a recent fair value gap and consolidated inside a small channel.
A double bottom has taken place and oscillators are lining up for this plan.
- Wait for break of triangle pattern
- Look for entry on 5min chart
XAU/USD 16 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 15 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
While a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) has printed, I am exercising discretion and not marking it as such, given the shallow nature of the pullback.
Additionally, another bullish CHoCH has printed, with price now trading within a defined internal range. I will continue monitoring this closely, particularly in relation to the depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand level before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold Loses 3,220 – Will It Fall Further?Gold has just broken through the 3,220 support and closed the H4 candle at $3,213/ounce. The strong red candle with volume shows that the sellers are still in control. I saw the EMA34 cut down to the EMA89 early and maintained a negative slope – confirming a clear downtrend.
I am watching the 3,180 – 3,200 zone as the next target. If the price rebounds but does not surpass 3,240, I will continue to sell. The current situation is not suitable for buying against the trend, especially when the USD is still strong and the safe-haven sentiment is decreasing.
Daily Analysis: 15‑05‑2025
The easing of uncertainty surrounding tariffs—despite the absence of a final agreement but with parties showing willingness to negotiate—continues to weigh on gold, which typically gains strength during times of uncertainty. Additionally, the decline in geopolitical tensions has influenced price movement.
This morning, gold continues its downward trend, trading around the 3,140 level.
Technically, if the price settles below 3,120, the decline could deepen toward the 3,072 level. On the upside, 3,190 and 3,210 are seen as key resistance levels.
Risk Appetite Weighs on GoldGold hovers near $3,155, attempting to stabilize after falling more than 2% the previous day. The metal trades below $3,200, pressured by improved risk appetite following U.S.-China tariff reductions and upcoming U.S. data releases, including PPI and Retail Sales.
Fed Chair Powell’s speech is also in focus, as markets seek clues on interest rate policy. While the weaker Dollar has lent gold some support, traders remain cautious ahead of potential rate-cut signals.
Key resistance is seen at $3,235, followed by $3,300 and $3,350. On the downside, support begins at $3,120, then $3,030 and $2,956.
XAUUSD-4H Buying SettingsGold has secured double bottom support
#XAUUSD Buy Setup – 4H
Buy Entry: 3,223–3,219 (Confirmed breakout above resistance, retest of 3,223 as new support)
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 3,238
TP2: 3,255
TP3: 3,340
Stop Loss: 3,210
Strategy: Buy after confirmed breakout, retest of 3,238 level as support, target higher resistance zone.
Mentioned as last episode Hi guys a few minutes late I was published price action strategy of xau and explained that if Liquidity will surprising us we need to getting a new chart figure.
I show you B plan on this chart .
as starting the trade session at next on houre we can making decisions for how to start our position and how configuration our TP or SL
XAUUSD SHORTIt's a beautiful setup , as we see here gold is going down since 6TH of may and it forms a bearish channel , it just tested the lower high of the channel and a resistance . I'm waiting for the market to break and retest the trendline beneath it , then i'll take a short position targeting this support level
XAU/USD – Things are waiting I’ve been quietly tracking XAU/USD, and something’s been standing out: no new high, no conviction, and no clear follow-through. That’s not weakness — that’s bait. It’s the kind of setup that shakes out the impulsive traders... right before the real move begins.
I’m not interested in chasing this range. The real opportunity — the one that matters — sits lower.
There’s only 2 zones I’m watching: the blue boxes.
That’s where I’ll position. That’s where the real story unfolds.
The market has been hovering just above a liquidity pocket, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fast sweep, a volume spike, or even a CDV divergence down there. I want to see a reaction — not just a touch. A reclaim. A shift in control. That’s when I act.
This zone isn’t random. It’s built on order flow and inefficiency — where price previously moved too fast, leaving imbalances behind. If we return there with intent, the bounce could be aggressive.
“I will not insist on my short idea. If the levels suddenly break upwards and do not give a downward break in the low time frame, I will not evaluate it. If they break upwards with volume and give a retest, I will look long.”
That applies here too. If we never reach the blue box, or if the move back into it lacks confirmation — I don’t touch it. No signal, no entry. That simple.
🧠 If you ignore this zone and price rockets without you — that’s fine. But if it hits the blue box cleanly and you hesitate, that’s on you.
As someone who’s watched this pattern unfold more times than I can count… this is where smart money loads, not where it exits.
Let’s see if we get the dip. If we do, and it reacts the way I expect — this could be the move.
📌I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
📌My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
📌If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
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XAU/USD 13 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains remains the same as analysis dated 07 May 2025.
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis that I would continue to monitor price and depth of bearish pullback following previous bullish iBOS.
Price did not pull back with any significance, therefore, I will apply discretion and not mark the previous iBOS. I have however marked this in red.
Price continued bullish and subsequently printed a bearish iBOS to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zones before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,435.055
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD May 12 New York real-time trading strategy analysis.The normal plan is to trade in a unilateral falling market. However, Russia's negotiation agreement with Ukraine has not stopped. While the cashing sentiment has risen, the tax issues between the United States and China have declined. This is why the New York market continued to rebound to 3247 and then fell back to 3220.
If the price of the New York market cannot continue to break through the position of 3233 and stabilize. Then the price will continue to fall. The target is below 3190. There may be support at 3200, but it will not be too strong. But if the position of 3233 stabilizes and breaks through above 3348 again. Then we need to pay attention to the position of 3360-3375 again.
Gold Breaks Support Level – The Downtrend May Not StopAfter peaking at $3,500/ounce in April, gold is in a clear correction phase. On the H4 chart, the price has broken through both the EMA34 and EMA89, indicating that a short-term downtrend has been established. The most recent session closed at $3,223, losing nearly $130 in just a few sessions.
The sharp decline appeared after a long rally and the peak was rejected many times. The break through the EMA89 support has triggered technical selling pressure, reflecting the psychology of profit-taking after failing to surpass the old peak.
Gold Plain and SimpleTo cut to the chase, if the USD continues it's rally today and Gold stays below the $3230 - $3218 range, I am looking to short it to $3150 mark, where the previous 1 day timeframe had resistance back on the 4th of April 2025.
A break and hold above $3230 and I will consider a long position, with a tight stop loss.
GL!
XAUUSD - Is Gold Going Down?!Gold is trading in its descending channel on the four-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. A downward correction in gold will open up buying opportunities from the demand areas.
Investors in the precious metals market witnessed another week of gold’s strong performance. Although overall optimism about a potential reduction in trade tariffs slightly slowed gold’s momentum, robust demand from Asia and other global regions provided solid support, preventing any major market correction.
At the beginning of the week, gold prices fell by over 1% on Monday as news of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China prompted investors to shift toward riskier assets. This drop occurred alongside easing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, which also contributed to a calmer market atmosphere.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamison Greer announced that the two nations had reached an agreement during negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The deal, which is expected to be released as a joint statement, signals a reduction in trade tensions that had escalated in recent weeks with tariffs reaching as high as 145% on Chinese imports.
As part of the agreement, the U.S. and China plan to establish a joint economic and trade consultation mechanism to continue discussions on tariffs. President Donald Trump hinted last week at a potential reduction in tariffs to 80%, although the official details of the deal have yet to be disclosed.
Adam Button, Chief Currency Strategist at Forexlive.com, commented that in the current market environment, it is difficult not to be bullish on gold. However, he warned that any de-escalation in U.S.-China tensions could dampen the strength of gold’s rally. He added, “Even though a 50% reduction in tariffs wouldn’t be the final chapter, if implemented, it would represent fairly rapid progress and a positive sign for both parties.”
In addition to trade developments, the easing of tensions in Kashmir and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan have also reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The ceasefire, brokered by the United States, remained largely intact over the weekend.
Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, stated that his outlook on gold remains unchanged. He explained, “Rising concerns over a potential U.S. recession, coupled with cautious optimism about easing trade tensions—especially between Washington and Beijing—could exert pressure on gold. However, gold’s notable resilience against price declines indicates underlying demand that has not yet fully entered the market.”
Meanwhile, Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, firmly maintained a bullish view on precious metals. He said, “If I had to write one analytical sentence on the market board, it would be: Precious metals must rally. I emphasize ‘must’ because nothing is certain in the markets. My bearish call last week was wrong, and it’s clear that technical analysis has become almost obsolete—especially in today’s world where algorithm-driven trading dominates.”
After a week largely influenced by the Federal Reserve’s meeting and tariff-related headlines, market focus now shifts to a data-heavy week featuring a broad range of U.S. economic indicators. The action kicks off Tuesday with the release of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), a report that could offer insights into whether the Fed might cut interest rates in its June meeting.
The real highlight, however, is expected on Thursday, when key reports are scheduled to be published, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales figures, jobless claims data, and two major regional indices—the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and the Empire State manufacturing index. Amidst this flood of information, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also set to deliver a speech in Washington, which could serve as a major catalyst for market movement.
To wrap up the week, markets await Friday’s release of the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May—a report often viewed as a psychological gauge of American consumer behavior.
Gold Technical Analysis.The chart you uploaded shows the price movement of Gold (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe from TradingView. Here are some key observations:
1. Resistance and Support Zones:
The chart highlights two major resistance zones around 3,400 and 3,360, shown as shaded rectangles.
A support zone is marked near the 3,305 level.
2. Labeled Points (1 to 6):
These numbered points indicate significant price action events or turning points.
Point 1: A peak after an upward trend, indicating resistance.
Point 2: A pullback, showing resistance holding.
Point 3: Another attempt to break resistance, followed by a sharp drop.
Point 4 and 5: Lower highs, confirming a downtrend.
Point 6: A strong support test near 3,305, with a rebound.
3. Price Movement and Trend:
The chart suggests a downtrend after failing to sustain above the resistance zone.
The drawn arrow points downward toward the 3,305 level, indicating a possible bearish target.
Current price: 3,337.33, with a recent bounce from support.
4. Projected Target:
The chart indicates a target of around 3,305, suggesting a bearish bias.
Would you like a more detailed technical analysis or insight into trading strategies based on this chart?