Beyond the Headlines - Gold Outlook June 16-20, 2025Beyond the Headlines: Gold's Ascent Amidst Global Shifts & Key Technicals 🌐🚀
Everything about the last week can be found here:
OANDA:XAUUSD 💰📈
We all know what's going on, I believe. Israel struck Iran 💥, and this conflict will likely take a bit before things cool down. 🥶
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## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰
### Israel / Iran
Since June 12, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," targeting Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Esfahan – over 128 killed, Iran claims. 🇮🇷 retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Haifa and Tel Aviv, killing at least 10. 🚀
**Outlook:** 🔥 Tensions are spiraling. Without urgent mediation, full-scale regional war remains a real risk. 💣
### India / Pakistan
Since the May ceasefire, few clashes have occurred. However, both navies increased readiness, signaling potential escalation at sea. 🚢
**Outlook:** ⚖️ Peace is fragile. A strategic dialogue is key to avoiding a renewed border or maritime conflict. 🙏
### Gaza Conflict
Between June 7–15, Israeli strikes killed at least 41 Palestinians, including 8 near an aid center in Rafah. Over 55,000 total deaths, and famine is looming. 💔
**Outlook:** 🆘 Gaza remains a humanitarian catastrophe. Global pressure for access and a ceasefire must intensify. 🕊️
### Russia / Ukraine
June 13–15: Russia returned the bodies of 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers in a rare POW swap gesture. 🤝 Fighting remains intense in Sumy and Toretsk; Russia hit a major oil refinery. 🏭
**Outlook:** 🕊️ While symbolic moves continue, no peace is in sight – battlefield outcomes will shape diplomacy. ⚔️
### U.S. - China Trade War
The U.S. hiked tariffs to 55% on key Chinese goods. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 responded with 10% on U.S. imports. Talks yielded a partial truce, but military-use rare earths remain unresolved. 💻
**Outlook:** 🔧 Tech remains the battleground. Without progress on critical materials, the trade war may deepen. 📉
### Global Trade War
The OECD revised global growth downward due to rising tariffs from the U.S. targeting 🇨🇳, 🇲🇽, 🇨🇦. Global trade volume is expected to shrink by 0.2–1.5%. 📉
**Outlook:** ⛓️ Supply chain disruption is spreading. Global trade will stay under pressure without coordinated policy. 🌍➡️🌍
### Trump vs. Powell
Trump labeled Powell a "numbskull" for not cutting rates, suggesting he might "force something" if re-elected. 🗳️ The Fed maintains policy independence ahead of a critical June decision. 🏛️
**Outlook:** ⚔️ Political pressure on the Fed is mounting. Expect more friction as the election cycle heats up. 🔥
### U.S. Inflation
CPI rose 2.4% YoY in May (from 2.3%); Core CPI held steady at 2.8%. Monthly growth was modest at 0.1%. Key rises were seen in healthcare and vehicle prices. 🚗🏥
**Outlook:** Inflation is stable but sticky. 🚦 The Fed will likely hold rates steady until clearer disinflation signals appear. 📊
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## Technical View 📐📈
### Market Structure:
Gold shows a clear **bullish market structure** with higher highs and higher lows. ⬆️ Recent price action suggests we're in a strong uptrend with institutional buying pressure. 🏦
### Key Levels:
* The chart shows a significant low around the **$3,245 area** (marked as "Low") which could act as a key institutional support level. 💪
* The current high near **$3,446** represents a potential institutional resistance zone. 🛑
* Look for potential **order blocks** around the **$3,380-$3,400 range** where price consolidated before the recent breakout. 🧱
### Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
There appear to be several gaps in the price action during volatile moves, particularly during strong rally phases. These could act as future support/resistance areas. 📉📈
### Gann Analysis:
The price movement shows strong adherence to Gann principles:
* The rally from the low follows a steep angle, suggesting strong momentum. 🚀
* Key Gann angles would place support around the **$3,300-$3,320 zone**. 📐
* The current price near **$3,436** is testing natural resistance levels based on Gann square calculations. 📏
### Fibonacci Levels:
From the significant swing low to the current high:
* 23.6% retracement: ~$3,395 📉
* 38.2% retracement: ~$3,370 📉
* 50% retracement: ~$3,345 📉
* 61.8% retracement: ~$3,320 📉
The golden ratio levels suggest key support on any pullback would be around the **$3,370-$3,345 zone**. ✨
### Institutional Levels:
* **Weekly/Monthly Levels:** The **$3,400** and **$3,450** areas appear to be significant institutional levels based on round numbers and previous price action. 🏦💰
* **Smart Money:** The accumulation pattern before the breakout suggests institutional participation. 🧠💡
### Cycle Timing:
Based on the timeframe (appears to be 30-minute bars from May 26-June 15):
* We're seeing approximately **3-week cycles** in the major moves. 🗓️
* The current rally phase appears to be in its mature stage. 🌳
* The next potential cycle turn could be approaching, suggesting caution for new longs at current levels. ⚠️
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### Trading Considerations:
* Watch for rejection at current levels near **$3,446**. 📉
* Key support confluence around **$3,370-$3,345** for potential re-entry. 🎯
* Volume and momentum divergences would be critical for timing any reversal. 📊🔄
Other indicators tend to show bullish scenario enhancements. 🚀
Gold has formed a ** Standard Bullish Flag pattern ** over a time from early April till today. 🚩🐂
Also, the structure of a ** reverse Head & Shoulders ** is existing and has broken the neckline! 🔄🗣️
Another indicator is an existing "** Ascending Bull Flag **." ⬆️🚩
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
GOLD trade ideas
XAU/USD 20 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Lingrid | GOLD corrective Pullback Presents Potential Long EntryOANDA:XAUUSD is retracing from a double top inside the resistance area near 3450 but remains above the key 3375 support and the ascending channel structure. Price is testing the confluence of the upward trendline and prior breakout level, creating a possible bullish rebound setup. A successful bounce here could ignite momentum toward the 3450–3470 zone.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 3370–3375
Sell trigger: loss of 3360 support
Target: 3450
Buy trigger: breakout above 3400 and hold with strong candle close
💡 Risks
A close below the upward channel could trigger deeper sell-off
Failure to reclaim 3400 may trap bulls in consolidation
Macro catalysts (Fed, CPI) could override local structure
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
XAUUSD EXPECTATIONS UPSIDE MOVES🔍 Key Observations:
1. Current Price: 3353
2. Previous Demand Zone / Order Block:
The area between 3347–3354 is a clear H4 order block/demand zone, which price has tapped multiple times and is currently reacting from.
3. Support Confirmation:
This zone has acted as a support multiple times in the past.
Price wicked below it but immediately pushed back above → indicating buyer interest.
4. Market Structure:
Price made a higher high near 3445.
Now it's making a retracement or pullback into the order block zone.
If this zone holds, we could see a reversal to the upside.
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🔮 Expectations:
If 3347–3354 holds:
Expect a bounce back up toward 3375, 3400, and possibly 3440+.
XAU / USD 2 Hour ChartHello traders. So here we are at the end of the day and my chart did not need to be changed. We failied to break out above or below the current range that gold is trading in. Saying that, the chart is still valid for small scalp trade set ups. Maybe the overnight sessions will bring some direction. Either way, I will check back during the London session or when Pre NY volume starts tomorrow morning at about 7:30 am est here in the US. Big G gets a shout out. Be well and trade the trend. Let's see how things play out during the overnight sessions.
XAU Updated CountThis is my current trade plan for Gold. I don´t believe the correction is over, and will be watching for potential shorts after some upside movement (green b -> c trade).
But the bigger opportunity will be on the conclusion of green c / blue 2, from where we can really get another strong leg to the upside.
Analysis of the Latest Market Trends of Gold's LowThe gold price experienced a sharp decline after a gap-up opening on Monday this week, followed by a doji doji bullish candle for sideways correction on Tuesday, and a generally range-bound trend on Wednesday. However, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced on Wednesday, the gold price dipped to around 3,362, where the low point coincided with the support from the 10-day moving average. Technically, the role of the 10-day moving average support at 3,350 has now become a key focus. If this support holds effectively, the gold price is expected to maintain a consolidative pattern. In terms of upper resistance, the 5-day moving average currently at around 3,390 will act as a suppression for the gold price's upward movement, with further resistance contingent on the breakthrough of 3,405.
The 4-hour chart shows no significant changes either, as the lower Bollinger Band has not widened, indicating strong support at 3,360, which still suggests a bullish trend. Notably, however, during the consecutive rebounds, the gold price has failed to break through the resistance of the middle Bollinger Band, implying a relatively weak mid-term range-bound trend for gold. For intraday trading, a strategy of "shorting at highs and longing at lows" is recommended, pending a breakout from the trend momentum to create trading space. Intraday, long positions are favored above the support at 3,350.
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Trading Strategy:
buy@3350-3355
TP:3375-3380
sell@3375-3380
TP:3350-3355
GOLD: Short Signal with Entry/SL/TP
GOLD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry Level - 3370.3
Sl - 3377.8
Tp - 3355.4
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Potential Gold LongWith Volatile Markets and constant War Developments
XAU/USD has experienced higher than NORMAL volatility.
Given price can RESPECT this short term trendline, we may have a Target of 3,500 in sight.
2 weeks of Bullish Momentum now followed by a beautiful retracement & Strong Wicks below.
SL - 3,355
TP 1 - 3,440
TP 2 - 3,470
TP 3 - 3,496
Analysis of the Short-Term Downtrend in Spot Gold Prices AgainstBased on the attached chart and extracted text information, here is a graphical analysis and trend determination of the spot gold price against the US dollar (Gold Spot / US Dollar).
Trend Analysis:
- General Trend: Based on the available data, there appears to be a short-term downtrend. The decline in price and confirmation of selling levels indicate strong selling pressure. However, this trend must be confirmed using other technical indicators.
- Price Range: The chart indicates a broad price range between approximately $3,000 and $3,500 over the past several months. This indicates significant volatility in the price of gold.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support Levels:
- The $3,219.944 level represents an important support level.
- The $3,100 and $3,000 levels may also act as support levels if the downtrend continues.
- Resistance Levels:
- The $3,353.820 level (the current buy level) could act as an immediate resistance level.
- Higher levels in the $3,400-$3,500 range represent potential resistance levels if the trend reverses.
- Monitoring Support Levels: The aforementioned support levels should be monitored to identify potential buying points in case of a bounce.
Based on the available data, there is a short-term downward trend in the spot gold price against the US dollar, starting from these areas:
- Entry price of the deal: $3,355.00
- Stop loss price for the trade: $3,381.00
- Target price for the deal TP1: $3,320.00
- Target price for the deal TP2: $3,280.00
- Target price for the deal TP3: $3,219.00
XAUUSD: Trading Strategy for Technical Correction CycleThe morning strategy has realized profits, and the gold price has entered a technical correction cycle. From a technical perspective, gold prices were resisted near $3,380, with short-term moving averages forming suppression, and the RSI indicator falling back from overbought territory, indicating weakening bullish momentum and clear correction demand.
Core shorting range: $3,375 - $3,385
- When the price rebounds above $3,380 and falls back, with long upper shadows or bearish engulfing patterns appearing on K-lines;
- The 4-hour MACD confirms a bearish cross, and the green momentum bars start to expand.
First target: $3,360 - $3,365
- Supported by the middle (middle band) of the hourly Bollinger Bands.
Second target: $3,350 - $3,355
- Supported by the 5-day moving average on the daily chart, resonating with previous lows.
- Stop-loss level: $3,395 (10 USD above the previous high to control single-trade risk)
- Position management: It is recommended to use a 10% position. If the price hits the resistance at $3,385, positions can be built in batches (5% + 5%) to reduce the risk of chasing gains.
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
XAU/USD) Back support level Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs U.S. Dollar) – 2H Timeframe:
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XAU/USD Bearish Rejection from Resistance – Short-Term Sell Setup
Key Observations:
1. Rejection from Upper Channel & Resistance Zone:
Price was rejected sharply after touching the upper boundary of the ascending channel and the newly established resistance zone (~3400–3420).
A strong bearish candle confirms selling pressure at the top.
2. Support Retest in Progress:
The price is currently descending toward the EMA 200 and the KYY support zone (approximately 3343–3348).
The previous bounce originated from this level, making it a significant retest zone.
3. EMA 200 as Confluence:
The 200 EMA (currently at 3346.92) aligns with the support zone, increasing the likelihood of a bounce or at least temporary pause in bearish momentum.
4. RSI Bearish Signal:
RSI has dropped below 50, confirming a momentum shift toward the downside.
Still above oversold territory, suggesting more downside room.
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Trade Idea:
Bias: Bearish (Short-Term)
Entry Zone: Around 3390–3400 (confirmed rejection area)
Target Zone: 3348 – 3343 (KYY support + EMA 200)
Stop Loss: Above 3425 (just above resistance zone)
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary:
Gold has faced a clear rejection at a key resistance zone within an ascending channel, and is now targeting the EMA 200 and previous structural support. Short opportunities could be considered toward the 3343–3348 zone, with RSI and price action supporting the move.
Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Tend to short gold, it may still retrace to 3360-3350 areaAt present, gold as a whole is still fluctuating in the 3395-3365 area. In the short term, both long and short sides are not willing to break through. They may be waiting for the guidance of the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's monetary policy press conference. However, from the current oscillation structure, because the high point of gold rebound and the low point of retracement are gradually moving downward, the center of gravity of the candlestick chart is shifting downward, and the weight of gold shorts is slightly higher.
From the current structure, 3395-3405 has become a new round of pressure area. Gold has been unable to break through for a long time, and has tried to accelerate downward many times during the retracement process. Although it can stabilize above 3375-3365, it may be easier to break through below after several tests. Once the 3375-3365 area is broken, gold may even continue to move to the 3360-3350 area.
Therefore, within the 3395-3365 oscillation range, we can temporarily maintain the trading rhythm of selling high and buying low in the short term, while we must pay attention to the breakthrough of gold. Once gold breaks through, the trend may be continued, and we need to follow the trend to execute transactions!
Trading FOMC (short idea)FOMC is coming and we have been stuck in this range for a few days. expect a volatity during the news a spike. both sellers and buyers of the range be aware that news could spike on both sides.
For me, I target for short, because Jerome is my grandpa. Joking.
Short Entry : 3403
SL : 3413
TP 1 : 3311
TP 2 : 3223
TP 3 : 3060
Gold:bullish wedge inside a rising channel-double trap for bearsInside the major upward channel, gold formed a falling wedge — and, of course, faked a breakdown. But the move reversed quickly: price reclaimed the wedge, surged on volume, and held above the key 3363–3368 area. This isn't just a bounce — it's a structural reclaim in line with the broader trend.
Price is now in the upper part of the rising channel and has broken a local downtrend line, reinforcing the bullish signal. Consolidation around 3380–3395 might be the last pause before acceleration. Above that lies a volume gap — no resistance until 3452.
MACD is flipping bullish, RSI turning upward, and volume confirms smart money presence. Classic: trap below, breakout above. As long as 3363 holds — longs remain in control.
GOLD Sell Setup – Bearish Reversal from Supply ZoneGold (XAUUSD) is trading within a well-defined supply zone around the 3369 – 3370 area. After multiple failed attempts to break above this resistance, price is showing signs of reversal. The structure indicates a bearish move is likely, especially if the market sustains below the sell zone.
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🔍 Technical Analysis:
Sell Zone: 3369 – 3370
The price has entered a strong resistance zone and is currently rejecting this level, indicating selling pressure.
Stop Loss: 3428.42
A break above this level would invalidate the bearish bias.
Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 3324.81
TP2: 3246.26
TP3: 3167.64
Target Zone: Around 3120, which aligns with a previous demand area on the chart.
Market Behavior:
The lower highs and resistance rejection pattern on the 4H chart suggests weakness in bullish momentum. If price breaks below the most recent support, it may trigger acceleration toward lower targets.
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📌 Trade Plan:
Enter short positions around 3369
Set SL above 3428
Aim for stepwise profit-taking on each support break
Risk-to-reward ratio remains favorable with proper lot size
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Conclusion:
Gold is respecting a critical resistance zone, and a bearish continuation is expected if price holds below it. Patience and confirmation on lower timeframes will strengthen the setup. Ideal for swing traders targeting medium-term downside.
Gold — Awaiting Clarity at the Neckline (FRL Setup)“Trading is capital management under uncertainty. The red horizontal zone is the zone of uncertainty. Neckline levels are rubicons — thresholds where the market becomes clear to us. Don’t fear uncertainty. Learn to wait for the moment when everything becomes clear.”
Right now, gold is forming an upward trend. But as we know, every trend consists of impulses and corrections — and each of those is a trend of its own.
According to Fractal Reversal Law (FRL):
• Every structure ends with a reversal pattern.
• A neckline is always strictly horizontal and defined by the last impulse’s top.
• The MA100 tells us the scale we’re working with — helping us select the right timeframe to confirm.
🔍 In this setup:
• A potential reversal pattern is forming.
• The neckline coincides perfectly with the MA100 — a strong alignment of structure and scale.
• We also see early signs of MACD divergence, suggesting loss of bearish momentum.
Neckline levels: 3400 for a Double bottom and 3300 for a Double top.
✅ What to wait for:
• A full-bodied candle close above the neckline (not just a wick).
• This signals the end of correction and potential beginning of a new impulse.
🎯 Target:
• Measure the height from the neckline to the bottom of the correction.
• Project it upward from the neckline to estimate the first profit target.
HelenP. I Gold can rise to resistance level and drop to $3325Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. After a steady climb, the price began to lose momentum and eventually corrected back to the trend line. This zone acted as dynamic support and initiated a new wave of upward movement. However, unlike the previous impulse, the price started consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, signaling indecision and weakening bullish pressure. Now the structure is tightening near the resistance zone, where the price has already been rejected multiple times. The market appears to be preparing for another interaction with the resistance level around 3430. Given the overall context, fading bullish energy, repeated rejections, and the triangle formation, I expect the price to test the resistance one more time before reversing downward. My goal is the trend line support, which aligns with 3325 points. This zone offers a logical area for the price to move next, especially considering the limited momentum above and the growing risk of breakdown inside the triangle. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Gold Rebounds from Support, Eyes Breakout Above 3,370📊 Market Dynamics:
– Gold briefly dipped to 3,344 this morning before rebounding to 3,355 as of now.
– The USD is steady after cautious Fed commentary, while geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven flows into gold.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key resistance: 3,370 – 3,380
• Immediate support: 3,344 – 3,340
• EMA: Price remains above EMA 09, signaling continued short-term bullish bias.
• Patterns / Momentum: A bullish engulfing pattern formed on the H1 chart at 3,344.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may continue to rebound toward 3,370–3,380 in the short term. A break above 3,380 could open the path to 3,400.
💡 Trading Strategies:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: 3,375 – 3,380
🎯 TP: 3,355 – 3,360
❌ SL: 3,385
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: 3,344 – 3,348
🎯 TP: 3,365 – 3,370
❌ SL: 3,335
GOLD Under Pressure as Volatility Rises – Key Support in FocusGOLD – Overview
Gold remains under bearish pressure driven by ongoing geopolitical instability and uncertainty around recent U.S. economic data.
As long as the price trades below 3347, a corrective move toward 3322 is expected.
A 15-minute close below 3322 would likely extend the decline toward 3303, where a rebound may occur.
However, if the price reverses and stabilizes above 3347, this would support a move higher toward 3365 and 3379.
Market Note:
Overall conditions remain highly volatile and unstable, with sharp intraday swings likely.
• Support: 3322 / 3303 / 3281
• Resistance: 3364 / 3379 / 3393
Key Event Today – FOMC Interest Rate DecisionAs risk-off sentiment cools, gold bulls failed to take control yesterday, resulting in a stalemate with the bears.
From the 4H chart perspective, bearish momentum currently appears stronger,
though bulls are not giving up easily.
Currently, price is rebounding off the 4H MA60 support,
with immediate resistance from the MA20 around 3405.
As time progresses, this resistance is likely to shift lower,
so for now, we’ll treat $3400 as the primary reference point.
For bulls to regain dominance,
they must hold steady above 3405,
and more importantly, protect the support at 3386–3378 during any pullback.
🔔 Key Event Today – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Today’s trading will also be influenced by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision,
which, based on current expectations, is likely to weigh heavily on bullish sentiment.
📌 Strategy for Today:
Main Bias: Sell the rebound
Secondary Approach: Buy on pullbacks if strong support levels hold
Key support levels to monitor:
⚠️ 3382 zone (minor support)
🔻 Most critical: 4H MA60 around 3366
Stay cautious during the FOMC announcement window, and remember — in volatile markets, reacting with discipline is more important than predicting perfectly.
Gold | 4h Structural LookoutPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
📅 June 18, 2025
Chart Title: “Gold's Battle at the Midpoint – Compression Before Explosion”
Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish
Structure: Ranging with Bullish Channel
✳️ Technical Summary:
Gold continues to coil near the upper half of its multi-month structure, testing traders’ patience before a potentially explosive move. Current PA is forming a tight consolidation right beneath mid-channel resistance, suggesting a directional breakout is imminent — especially with the FOMC catalyst ahead.
📏 Key Chart Features:
Clear Rising Channel: Acting as medium-term trend guide
Major Consolidation: Identified around 3,330–3,380
Historical Boxes & Reaction Lows: Multiple orange circles show clear buying interest zones
Possible Long-Term Range: Defined between 3,123 and ATH zone (3,500)
EMA Support: Price currently holding both 15 & 60 EMAs
📈 Scenarios to Watch:
🔼 Bullish Breakout Path:
Trigger: Break and close above 3,400
Confirmation: Follow-through above consolidation +full body close
TP1: 3,460
TP2: ATH retest around 3,500–3,540
SL: Below 3,320 or lower trendline
Invalidation: Break below channel
🔽 Bearish Breakdown Path:
Trigger: Breakdown below 3,325 support
First Target: 3,250
Expansion Target: 3,123 – base of the macro range
Extreme Bear Target: 3,000 zone
SL: Above 3,400
Consolidation Zoom in:
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